March 13, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

March 13, 1781: Planet Uranus discovered.

March 13, 1969: Apollo 9 returns safely to Earth after testing the Lunar Module.
1884: Standard Time was adopted throughout the United States.  Go to article » 

1887: Earmuffs patented.

Rare galaxy with three black holes leads astronomers to the most massive objects in the universe: Glimpsed only occasionally at the hearts of massive clusters of galaxies, ultra-massive black holes are some of the largest and most elusive objects in the universe.
Now, researchers studying a rare galaxy merger with three supermassive black holes at its center may have finally discovered the origins of these cosmic monsters. Full Story: Live Science (3/10)

Earliest mention of Odin, ‘king of the gods,’ found in treasure hoard from Denmark: A gold pendant recently unearthed in Denmark bears the earliest known inscription featuring the Norse god Odin.
Archaeologists think the pendant — which is technically known as a bracteate and made of thin, stamped gold — dates to the fifth century A.D., making it 150 years older than the previous oldest known artifact mentioning Norse mythology. Full Story: Live Science (3/11)

Reduce stress and boost happiness with these daily practices.  Practicing gratitude regularly offers many health and wellness benefits. Follow these four steps to boost your happiness year-round.

“The Little Mermaid” reveals first full trailer during the Oscars: The wait is over, Disney enthusiasts: A new trailer for the live-action remake debuted during last night’s Oscars. Watch it here.

This year’s March Madness is upon us:  The best college basketball teams from across the US are set to go head-to-head for prestigious NCAA titles, with matches beginning later this week. Here’s all you need to know ahead of the men’s and women’s tournaments.

How are you adjusting to Daylight Saving Time?  In case you missed it, clocks in most of the US and many other countries “sprang forward” one hour on Sunday. Learn more about the time change.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hong Kong
A helicopter flies near the artwork Giants: Rising Up at Harbour City. The 12-metre x 12-metre installation by the French artist JR depicts a high jumper, adjacent to Victoria Harbour
Photograph: Jérôme Favre/EPA

London, UK
Quinten Massys’ An Old Woman, which became known as The Ugly Duchess, here reunited with her male pendant, An Old Man, on rare loan from a private collection in New York. The two works have been shown together only once in their history. The ‘ugly’ nickname came after she inspired John Tenniel’s illustrations for Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland (1865)
Photograph: Guy Bell/Rex/Shutterstock

In 2018, artist Phyllida Barlow’s work Quarry was unveiled at the Scottish sculpture park Jupiter Artland to celebrate the organisation’s 10th anniversary. It was Barlow’s first permanent outdoor commission – and it was comprised of two columns and a staircase made of stone, all of which seemingly rose to nowhere.  Barlow died this week.
Photograph: Andy Catlin/Alamy
Market Closes for March 13^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1986, Microsoft Corp. went public at an initial offering price of $21 a share, raising $61 million just one day after Oracle Corp.’s own IPO. Microsoft closed the day at $28.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.9%, or 186.02 to 19,588.90 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Jan. 5.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 151 of 236 shares fell, while 83 rose.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.9%.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 1.1%
* The index declined 8.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.2% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 9.6% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 4.5% in the past 5 days and fell 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 12.7 times estimated earnings ofits members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-monthbasis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.16t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.40% compared with 10.25% in the previous session and the average of 8.28% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -125.9396| -2.1| 2/27
Energy | -95.9656| -2.7| 3/36
Industrials | -14.5465| -0.5| 7/19
Consumer Discretionary| -11.1376| -1.6| 0/15
Consumer Staples | -5.2482| -0.6| 2/9
Health Care | -1.0144| -1.4| 2/5
Communication Services| 0.1426| 0.0| 3/3
Real Estate | 0.7264| 0.1| 11/10
Information Technology| 1.4499| 0.1| 6/8
Utilities | 10.6098| 1.2| 13/3
Materials | 49.2081| 2.1| 34/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -36.0000| -3.4| 255.7| -7.7
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | -24.8800| -4.2| 84.3| -0.6
Suncor Energy | -22.7600| -5.3| -7.7| 2.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | 8.6620| 4.4| 18.5| -6.8
Wheaton Precious | | | |
Metals | 10.8100| 6.2| 59.2| 12.3
Barrick Gold | 16.7300| 6.2| 48.0| 0.7
US
By Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — The yield on the two-year Treasury note plunged in its biggest one-day slump in decades, while tech stocks rebounded from last week’s rout as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank reverberated across trading desks.
The two-year yield dropped by more than a half-percentage point, logging the biggest three-day retreat since Black Monday of October 1987, as investors poured into haven assets.
The dollar erased its gains for the year on Monday.
Traders will soon turn their attention back to Tuesday’s consumer price index report, which could drive further bets on the Federal Reserve’s next move.
The market turmoil has caused a swift reassessment over the direction of Fed policy.
Swaps traders are now pricing a less than 60% chance the Fed will hike by another quarter percentage-point later this month.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists as well as asset managers at the world’s largest actively managed bond fund from Pacific Investment Management Co. are saying the Fed could take a breather on the policy rate following the
collapse of SVB.
Nomura economists took it one step further, saying the Fed could cut its target rate next week.

Expectations had weighed a hike of as much as 50 basis points after Chair Jerome Powell addressed lawmakers last Tuesday.
The S&P 500 closed the day down 0.2%, after bouncing between gains and losses amid a rout in bank shares while the policy-sensitive Nasdaq climbed 0.8%, the most in over a week.
The fallout from SVB’s collapse prompted President Joe Biden to promise stronger regulation of US lenders, while reassuring depositors that their money is safe.
First Republic Bank plunged 62% as heightened worries about the state of US regional banks triggered trading halts across the sector.
The KBW Bank Index logged its biggest one-day drop  since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Problem is that nobody wants to be the last one in a room turning off the light. In other words, as soon as there is a problem in one bank, fear is real. Immediately everybody starts to say, ‘wait a minute, should I also have my deposits at bank ABCD etc.?,’” Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, managing principal at MRV Associates said on Bloomberg TV.  “Bond yields go up, which signal to the rest of the market that there is an increasing probability of default and loss severity. Even if the bank is well capitalized,” she added.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her office would protect “all depositors” at SVB.
The government actions will also include a new lending program that Fed officials said would be big enough to protect uninsured deposits in the wider US banking sector.
Still, the sudden closing of New York’s Signature Bank by state regulators Sunday underscored the urgency of stabilizing the financial system.
“Warren Buffett said once, when a tide goes out, we find out who’s not wearing swimming suits and we found out already three folks that weren’t wearing swimming suits,” Ralph Schlosstein, Evercore ISI’s chairman emeritus told Bloomberg Television. “Over the weekend, the Fed showed up at the beach and started handing out swimming suits to everyone.”
Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge” spiked, with the CBOE Volatility Index rising above 30 for the first time since October.
Monday’s market moves come after risk assets got pummeled last week, with the US stock benchmark suffering its worst week since September. 
Wall Street weighs in on the Fed’s next move: 
We forecast a 25bp Fed hike, but Powell talk and high CPI point to close call.
The threat to our views comes from Fed Chair Powell. While Powell opened the door to a large March hike, he did not walk through it, noting that the upcoming decision will be determined by “the totality of the data.”
The Fed decision will incorporate two additional factors.
First, this week’s CPI report. Second, the Fed will consider the potential for financial stress to build. — Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist The Fed has to be off the table for now.
They pushed on rates until something cracked, well guess what? Something cracked. 
To see QT stop would not be surprising, and maybe something to support the market. I think we’re back in crisis mode, and remember, to me, bank runs are way way way more important than inflation, so that’s what they’ve got to be arresting. — Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities
Pressure on banks dampens the rate outlook some, but decisive action on financial stability gives the Fed latitude to continue with rate hikes; 50 in March is not impossible as it would have been under a weak financial stability response and ongoing runs but looks very implausible – we still see 25 with a high bar to pause. — Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of central bank strategy
Led by ex-Federal Reserve chair after the financial crisis, Janet Yellen, the comprehensive set of measures has helped to ensure that doubts over systemic issues in the US banking system have been put to bed. With a speedy response to the crisis delivered, the Fed can get back to its day job of raising interest rates to deal with inflation.   — James Lynch, fixed income investment manager at Aegon Asset Management
Speculation about what the Fed’s going to do before we even see CPI is probably ill-founded. But if you look at the fed funds futures, they’re pricing in cuts in the fourth quarter and they’re pricing in the credible potential — like a 50% chance — that the Fed does nothing at the March meeting. So there’s too much noise around what else happens, what does this mean for  monetary policy. — Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth
Elsewhere in markets, oil dipped while gold rose on its allure as a haven.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0730
* The British pound rose 1.3% to $1.2184
* The Japanese yen rose 1.3% to 133.33 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 14% to $24,393.75
* Ether rose 8.1% to $1,684.29
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 17 basis points to 3.53%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 25 basis points to 2.26%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 27 basis points to 3.37%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3% to $74.41 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 2.8% to $1,918.70 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Cecile Gutscher, Angel Adegbesan, Alyce Andres and Benjamin Purvis.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds.  The pessimist fears it is true. –J. Robert Oppenheimer, 1904-1967.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com