March 1, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
March 1, 1998: Titanic becomes the first film to gross over $1 billion worldwide.
1974: Former Nixon White House aides H.R. Haldeman and John D. Ehrlichman and former Attorney General John Mitchell were indicted on obstruction of justice charges related to the Watergate break-in.  Go to article » 

1872: Yellowstone National Park established.
1961: Peace Corps established

11 minutes of daily exercise could have a positive impact on your health.  Too busy to fit a full workout into your day? A new study shows just 11 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous daily activity can lower your risk of diseases.

Ancient Roman ‘spike defenses’ made famous by Julius Caesar found in Germany
In 52 B.C., Julius Caesar used an ingenious system of ditches and stakes to defend his soldiers from an encroaching Gallic army in modern-day central France.
More than two millennia later, archaeologists have discovered the first preserved example of similar defensive stakes, which likely protected an ancient silver mine. Full Story: Live Science (2/28)

Jupiter and Venus ‘kiss’ in a stunning planetary conjunction tonight. Here’s how to watch.
On Wednesday (March 1) and Thursday (March 2), two bright planets will appear as if they were about to collide in the night sky.
Jupiter, the largest planet in the solar system, and Venus, one of the brightest objects in Earth’s sky, will come within about half a degree of each other — or roughly one full moon’s width apart. Full Story: Live Science (3/1)

Otherworldly ‘fairy lantern’ plant, presumed extinct, emerges from forest floor in Japan
Scientists in Japan have rediscovered an extremely rare species of parasitic “fairy lantern” that was presumed to be extinct. The mysterious plant, Thismia kobensis, belongs to a rarely seen, fungus-sapping genus. The plants grow underground without photosynthesis yet send translucent flowers to sprout like ghostly lanterns from the forest floor. Full Story: Live Science (2/28)

Man lost at sea survives on ketchup. -Mark Gilbert
Wait, is King Charles evicting Harry and Meghan?

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Planica, Slovenia
Japan’s Yoshito Watabe in action at the FIS Nordic World Ski Championships
Photograph: Borut Živulovič/Reuters

Dubai, UAE
The artist Refik Anadol launches Glacier Dreams, an immersive installation, at Art Dubai 2023
Photograph: Cedric Ribeiro/Getty Images for Art Dubai

Tokyo, Japan
A white-eye bird on early-flowering cherry blossoms in full bloom
Photograph: Issei Kato/Reuters
Market Closes for March 1^st, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On March 1, 1935, the first U.S. savings bond (Series A) was issued after Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau observed that the U.S. lacked a government savings plan like those of France and Britain.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 20,259.78 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Capstone Copper Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.1%.
Today, 141 of 236 shares rose, while 92 fell; 3 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 4.5%
* The index declined 3.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.1% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 13.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and fell 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 12.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.23t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.52% compared with 7.57% in the previous session and the average of 8.63% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 58.3986| 1.7| 39/0
Materials | 49.7265| 2.1| 48/2
Industrials | 9.2223| 0.3| 13/13
Health Care | -1.8201| -2.3| 1/6
Communication Services | -3.9434| -0.4| 1/5
Consumer Discretionary | -4.5559| -0.6| 5/10
Consumer Staples | -4.8738| -0.6| 6/5
Real Estate | -5.6830| -1.1| 1/20
Utilities | -6.3567| -0.7| 5/11
Information Technology | -28.4769| -2.3| 6/8
Financials | -28.7648| -0.4| 16/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.5500| 2.1| 48.0| 4.7
Franco-Nevada | 10.3000| 4.5| 49.7| -1.4
Bank of Nova Scotia | 8.2360| 1.5| 90.4| 3.2
Constellation Software | -8.2680| -2.6| -25.8| 10.4
Shopify | -13.4900| -2.9| -23.9| 16.0
RBC | -47.3600| -3.6| 44.0| 5.0
US
By Peyton Forte, Angel Adegbesan and Isabelle Lee (Bloomberg)
US stocks dropped for a second session as investors revisited their wagers on peak rates after economic data highlighted persistent inflationary pressures and Federal Reserve officials continued to sound hawkish.
The S&P 500 closed the day at its lowest level in nearly six weeks.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped to its lowest since January 30.
Both indexes stayed firmly in the red for most of the session after a gauge of manufacturing improved for the first time in six months.
Investors balked at prices-paid measures also rising.
Treasury yields remained higher, with the 10-year rate piercing the closely watched 4% level.
Fed swaps are now pricing in a peak policy rate of 5.5% in September, with some traders betting that the benchmark interest rate could reach 6%.
A dollar index the most since February 1.
Among individual movers, Salesforce Inc. soared in late trading after signaling that it’s making progress in its efforts to boost profitability this year.
Lowe’s Cos., after forecasting a decline in sales, fell the most since Sept. 13 during regular trading.
Dollar Tree Inc., which also reported earnings, climbed the most in a month.
Investors are awaiting updates on Tesla Inc.’s investor day.
Investors remained cautious on Wednesday after Fed officials reinforced their hawkish stance on Wednesday.
Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic called for continued rate hikes to above 5% to make sure inflation doesn’t pick up again.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, meanwhile, said he’s concerned that there isn’t much of an indication that the central bank’s rate hikes are slowing down the services sector.
“The markets crossed the fine line between expectations and wishful thinking,” said Deborah Cunningham, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “But investors checked that fantasy within the shortest month of the year. Indeed, change can come quickly after acceptance.”
Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, says the VIX, a measure of volatility in stocks, hasn’t been the most reliable indicator of what’s happening in the markets recently.
“To say that the volatility markets have been strange for the last couple of months is maybe the understatement of the millennium here,” he said on Bloomberg Television. “And a lot of reason the truth is so difficult to discern is because of these zero-days to expiration options, which really are ruling the moves from moment to moment in the markets.”
He says the macro picture will become clearer in the coming weeks, depending on the incoming economic data.
While data showing China’s economy is on track for a stronger recovery had briefly buoyed US stock futures before markets opened, that bounce didn’t sustain during Wednesday’s trading session.
“This is a China story. This is not a global growth story,” Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, told Bloomberg Television. “So yes, it’s very good for China equities and maybe some Asian economies that can, that can gear off of that. But not so much the US stock market, which isn’t that geared to China growth.”
Bonds in Europe also fell as evidence mounted that further tightening is needed to tamp down on inflation.
The latest data showed an unexpected acceleration in German inflation in February, further complicating the European Central Bank’s task after overshoots this week in other parts of the continent.
A 4% ECB terminal rate is also now fully priced with rates forecast to rise through February 2024. 
Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.9% to $1.0666
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2019
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 136.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $23,399.5
* Ether rose 2.1% to $1,640.26
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.99%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.84%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $77.74 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,844.80 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Alice Atkins.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
A problem is a chance for you to do your best. -Duke Ellington, 1899-1974.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com