February 14, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Valentine’s Day.
February 14^th, 1876: Alexander Graham Bell and Elisha Gray both separately apply for the first telephone patent on the same day – Bell won.
1989: Union Carbide agreed to pay $470 million to the government of India in a court-ordered settlement of the 1984 Bhopal gas leak disaster. Go to article » 

Strange love: 13 animals with truly weird courtship rituals: On Valentine’s Day, lovers who are eager to woo their partners show their affection with traditional gifts of red roses, heart-shaped boxes of chocolates or with romantic dinners at fancy restaurants.
There’s usually some effort involved, but pulling off a memorable Valentine’s Day is easier — and generally safer — than some of the courtship rituals performed by other animal species. Full Story: Live Science (2/13)

Some narcissists chase status, others are driven by a need to be admired, study finds: Narcissists often rub their friends and family the wrong way by bragging about their exploits, seemingly a symptom of an overinflated sense of self-esteem.
But new research finds that in some cases, narcissists actually have low self-esteem, but they’re not chasing a self-esteem boost with their self-aggrandizing behavior. Instead, they’re seeking status. Full Story: Live Science (2/13)

‘SNL’ alums team up for a live comedy tour:  Amy Poehler and Tina Fey are hitting the road together for a comedy tour starting this spring.

Super Bowl ratings touchdown: The Super Bowl attracted 113 million viewers, the third most-watched TV program ever.

Are you getting too much screen time?  On the “Chasing Life” podcast, Dr. Sanjay Gupta dives into the science behind how technology and social media are impacting our brains. He also speaks to one of the people he worries about most: his teenage daughter. Listen here
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Northumberland , UK
The sun rises through the sea mist over the sculpture Couple by Sean Henry at Newbiggin-by-the-Sea
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Shanghai, China
A 5-metre-high art installation in the shape of a heart brings Valentine’s Day vibes to the Bund Finance Center
Photograph: Rex/Shutterstock

Guizhou, China
China’s five hundred metre aperture spherical radio telescope (Fast) undergoes maintenance in south-west China’s Guizhou province. Fast, the world’s largest single-dish radio telescope, is said to have identified more than 740 pulsars since its launch. Dubbed the ‘China Sky Eye’, the telescope is located in a naturally deep and round karst depression. It has a reception area equal to 30 standard football fields
Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for February 14^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1932: Gov. William Comstock of Michigan declared he would shut down every bank in the state to avert loan defaults and public panic
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 20,704.79 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.8%.
CAE Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.1%.
Today, 145 of 236 shares rose, while 86 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* The index declined 3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 6.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 15.8% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 on a trailing basis and 13 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.29t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.31% compared with 8.45% in the previous session and the average of 11.29% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 19.5558| 1.5| 12/2
Communication Services | 2.1466| 0.2| 4/2
Real Estate | 1.7684| 0.3| 14/9
Consumer Staples | 1.5699| 0.2| 4/6
Health Care | 1.3327| 1.8| 5/2
Utilities | 0.1883| 0.0| 7/9
Materials | -0.3115| 0.0| 36/12
Industrials | -1.9607| -0.1| 12/14
Energy | -4.7285| -0.1| 32/6
Consumer Discretionary | -5.3971| -0.7| 10/5
Financials | -11.6101| -0.2| 9/19
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 14.7100| 2.8| -33.8| 42.1
Suncor Energy | 6.2400| 1.5| -43.9| 8.0
TC Energy | 5.4490| 1.4| -38.0| 4.5
Canadian National | -5.7540| -0.9| -21.6| -0.8
Nutrien | -7.7570| -2.1| 11.1| 3.9
Canadian Natural Resources | -8.4850| -1.4| -38.4| 6.9
US
By Emily Graffeo and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — The S&P 500 Index closed nearly flat and the two-year Treasury yield added more than 10 basis points after data showed that inflation remained high.
Two Federal Reserve officials then warned that the remedy might require higher interest rates for a long period of time, though one policymaker suggested that the end might be near.
Swaps contracts showed traders gave near-even odds for a quarter-point rate increase by the Fed in June, following similar hikes in March and May.
The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield rose past 4.6%.
Equity indexes fell in the morning as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin told Bloomberg TV that the central bank might “have to do more” to fight inflation and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said rate increases could last “for a longer period than previously anticipated.”
But stocks pared losses after Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said that policymakers were nearing the point where rates were restrictive enough: “In my view, we are not done yet … but we are likely close.”
“Stocks are probably rising due to Harker,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “Close to done on tightening is vague, but certainly not a hawkish tone.”
Equity bulls clung to one CPI component that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has singled out as a must-watch: The so-called super-core figure, or core services minus housing, came in at a slower 0.3% pace in the month.
But Win Thin, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, wasn’t buying this super-core argument.
“If the market and the Fed have to get THIS granular to somehow weave an inflation argument, then they’ve lost the argument,” he wrote in a text. “Core core core core inflation?  C’mon man!”
Here is what other Wall Street analysts were saying about CPI and the Fed:
Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners: “We’ve seen lots of Fedspeak in both directions, so this is just one more data point. However, investors are really puzzled with today’s CPI print and perhaps the Harker comments help cement a bullish theme of Fed easing later this year.”
Michael Contopoulos, head of fixed income at Richard Bernstein Advisors: “If you think inflation is going to stick around for a while, as we do, then it also means the Fed needs to continue to hike until they really destroy demand. This means they need to crack labor. If you crack labor, long term growth and inflation expectations need to fall as a ‘hard landing’ scenario becomes more likely.”
Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen: “The Fed has won every single one of these battles over the last 18 months — every time the markets have tried to price out or discount the Fed’s rhetoric or their forecasts, the markets have basically lost that fight, they’ve lost that game of chicken.”
Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors: “We continue to forecast inflation will rapidly decline as the BLS slowly reflects the reality of housing deflation in their estimate of shelter inflation. This lag is approximately
12 months, so second half inflation numbers should come down rapidly.”
John Plassard, investment specialist at Mirabaud: “It’s the seventh month in a row of inflation going lower, the disinflation narrative is not threatened — on the contrary.  It must be said there were some worries around a bad surprise so this is reassuring before the next meeting of the Fed.”
Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management: “Our own view is that yields are more likely to head higher as we think the Fed remain hawkish for the time being. This poses a headwind for equities.”
Oil fell for a second day after the announcement that the US was selling more crude from its strategic reserves.
The yen rose following the formal nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan governor.
Argentina’s annual inflation rate hit 99%.
And Turkey prepared to channel billions of liras into its stock market, which will reopen Wednesday after the devastating earthquakes Feb. 6. 
Key events:
* US retail sales, UK CPI Wednesday
* US jobless claims, Australia unemployment, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at Global Interdependence Center event Thursday
* France CPI, Russia GDP Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:05 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% to the highest since Feb. 7
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.8%, more than any closing gain since Feb. 7
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0738
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2175
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 133.04 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin surged 2.5%, more than any closing gain since Feb. 1
* Ether surged 4.4%, more than any closing gain since Jan. 29
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.75%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.44%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points, more than any closing advance since Feb. 6
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $79.13 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,866.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Julien Ponthus, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Farah Elbahrawy and Vildana Hajric.

Have a  lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

A loving heart if the truest wisdom. –Charles Dickens, 1812-1870.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com