February 8, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Nirvana Day, Buddhism.

February 8, 1960: The Hollywood Walk of Fame is established. Scouts of America est.
1910: Boy Scouts of America est.
1971: NASDAQ, the world’s first electronic stock exchange, held its first trading day.  Go to article » 

John Ruskin, critic, b. 15819.
Jules Verne, author, b. 1828.
Lana Turner, actress, b. 1921
James Dean, b. 1931.

AI is deciphering a 2,000-year-old ‘lost book’ describing life after Alexander the Great.  A 2,000-year-old “lost book” discussing the dynasties that succeeded Alexander the Great may finally be deciphered nearly two millennia after the text was partially destroyed in the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in A.D. 79 and, centuries later, handed off to Napoleon Bonaparte.  The reason for the breakthrough? Researchers are using machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, to discern the faint ink on the rolled-up papyrus scroll.  Full Story: Live Science (2/7)

Massive, 1.2 million-year-old tool workshop in Ethiopia made by ‘clever’ group of unknown human relatives:  More than 1.2 million years ago, an unknown group of human relatives may have created sharp hand axes from volcanic glass in a “stone-tool workshop” in what is now Ethiopia, a new study finds. This discovery suggests that ancient human relatives may have regularly manufactured stone artifacts in a methodical way more than a half-million years earlier than the previous record, which dates to about 500,000 years ago in France and England.  Full Story: Live Science (2/7)

Mary, Queen of Scots’ cryptic prison letters finally deciphered: Researchers have cracked the code used to write a collection of “lost” letters once owned by Mary, Queen of Scots.
Penned between 1578 and 1584 with a “sophisticated cipher system” that involved a mix of letters and symbols, the letters were written to and from the former Queen of Scotland (also known as Mary Stuart) while she was imprisoned by her cousin, Elizabeth I of England.  Full Story: Live Science (2/7)

Coffee survived the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. (h/t Mark Gongloff)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
The Thames is shrouded in fog covering Tower Bridge on a sunny winters morning
Photograph: Andy Hall/The Guardian

Lake Elsinore, California
Poppies and wildflowers bloom early in the wake of winter rainfall on the upper slopes of Walker Canyon
Photograph: Allen J Schaben/LA Times/Getty Images

Méribel, France
La Patrouille de France aerobatics team perform before the women’s super-G race at the FIS Alpine Skiing World Championships
Photograph: Jean-Christophe Bott/EPA
Market Closes for February 8^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1971: After nearly a decade of preparation, the Nasdaq market opened for stock trading, as the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation system first displayed the median price for more than 2,500 “over-the-counter” securities. The Nasdaq Composite Index was set at an initial value of 100.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 20,679.54 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.7%.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.4%.
Today, 123 of 236 shares fell, while 109 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index declined 3.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.6% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 15.7% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 4.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 13.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.29t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.86% compared with 9.71% in the previous session and the average of 12.27% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -22.6230| -0.6| 17/20
Materials | -22.4808| -0.9| 16/34
Information Technology | -12.7228| -0.9| 7/7
Utilities | -4.5070| -0.5| 7/8
Health Care | -1.5885| -2.0| 1/5
Consumer Discretionary | -1.5070| -0.2| 4/11
Financials | -0.3563| 0.0| 13/16
Real Estate | 0.1200| 0.0| 12/11
Communication Services | 2.8294| 0.3| 6/0
Industrials | 4.6224| 0.2| 17/9
Consumer Staples | 12.7504| 1.6| 9/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Enbridge | -20.5500| -2.7| 37.0| 0.5
Shopify | -15.1200| -2.7| -21.5| 42.5
Nutrien | -12.9600| -3.3| -5.5| 6.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 3.1340| 0.5| -50.9| 6.1
Couche-Tard | 6.0880| 1.9| -19.2| 2.3
RBC | 8.9400| 0.7| -52.5| 9.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in tech stocks weighed heavily on trading Wednesday, with the most-recent string of Federal Reserve speakers reinforcing the idea that interest rates will need to keep climbing to quash inflation.
Their tone was clearly intended to catch the market’s attention in what looked like a concerted effort to push back against the dovish read of Jerome Powell’s interview Tuesday, noted Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI.
From Fed Bank of New York President John Williams to his Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari and Governor Christopher Waller, the message was clear: policy may need to be tight for a while.
Those remarks just gave credence to the recent hot trade in the rate-options market — where several big wagers on the Fed’s benchmark reaching 6% have popped up.
That’s nearly a percentage point higher than consensus.
For several market observers, such hawkish positioning makes it tough for equities to keep grinding higher — especially after the rally that brought the S&P 500 to overbought territory.

Another aspect is that while Powell has refrained from pushing back on the stock surge that has contributed to a recent easing in financial conditions, other policymakers may indeed embrace tougher talk to put a lid on gains.
That’s the perception of Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who says the recent rally in the face of worsening earnings and economic expectations has produced “massive disconnects” that threaten market stability.
“Even though we shifted early this year from ‘cautious’ to ‘cautiously constructive,’ adding back to stocks for the first time in 18 months, we continue to expect market volatility ahead as news flow on earnings, inflation, the economy, and Fed bounces from bullish to bearish and back again,” wrote Stephen Auth, chief investment officer of equities at Federated Hermes.
The S&P 500 fell over 1%, almost wiping out its Tuesday’s rally.
The Nasdaq 100 underperformed, with Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. down more than 7% on concern that its new artificial intelligence chatbot Bard may yield inaccurate responses.
Some other mega caps like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. also slumped, while Microsoft Corp.’s erased gains that briefly put the software giant’s market value above $2 trillion.
To Troy Gayeski at FS Investments, it will be a challenging environment for equities and fixed income for quite some time.
“When you think of equity markets, we think it’s going to be a choppy, sloppy mess as far as the eye can see,” he said.
“It’s been a buoyant start to the year. And when you actually scratch your head, what’s actually causing it? The thing to remember is the most powerful rallies are always in bear markets because people underinvest and you have short covering that starts, and you start to suck people in to new bullish narratives.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.’s key measure of sales fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, showing that stubbornly high inflation is having an impact on the burrito chain’s operations.
* Yum! Brands Inc. reported profit that exceeded estimates as the company’s Taco Bell business pulled in consumers who may be trading down due to inflation.
* Uber Technologies Inc. reported revenue that beat estimates, suggesting rising inflation hasn’t kept consumers from ordering more takeout or hailing a ride.
* Under Armour Inc. raised its profit forecast after a strong holiday season and better-than-expected inventory management.
Elsewhere, Turkey’s stock exchange suspended trading for the first time in 24 years following a selloff that erased billions of dollars from the value of its main equities gauge in the wake of two devastating earthquakes.
Trading in Turkish equities, futures and option contracts will resume on Feb. 15.  
Key events:
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in EU leaders summit, Thursday
* Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before Treasury Committee, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller and Patrick Harker speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0714
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2066
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 131.42 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $22,827.99
* Ether fell 1.6% to $1,641.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.62%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.36%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.31%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $78.43 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,887.70 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Peyton Forte, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

It is not true that people stop pursuing dreams because they grow old, they grow old because they stop pursuing dreams. -Gabriel Garcia Marquez, 1927-2014.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com