January 24, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
January 24^th, 1908: The first Boy Scout troop is organized in England by Robert Baden-Powell.
1935: First canned beer debuted.
2008: French bank Société Generale announced it had uncovered a $7.14 billion fraud by a single futures trader. Go to article » 

Edith Wharton, b. 1862.

Oscar nominations are out—here are the big potential winners.

Stunning images capture the moment a green comet’s tail is blasted away by the sun:  A rare green comet passing through our solar system for the first time in 50,000 years received a warm welcome from the sun this week… perhaps too warm.  Images captured by Michael Jäger, an amateur astronomer based in Austria, reveal a huge spike of gas disconnecting from the comet’s tail and drifting off on the solar wind.  Full Story: Live Science (1/23)

3,600-year-old hoards may contain the earliest silver currency in Israel and Gaza:  Ancient silver hoards from Israel and Gaza, which contain not coins but irregularly cut pieces of the precious metal, maybe the earliest known silver currency in the region and likely came from the faraway regions of what is now Turkey and Europe, a new study suggests.  These newly analyzed hoards date to about 1550 B.C., hundreds of years earlier than other discoveries of silver currency in what is now Israel and Gaza, the researchers said. Full Story: Live Science (1/23)

Incredible CT scans of ‘Golden Boy’ mummy from ancient Egypt reveal 49 hidden amulets:  Incredibly detailed computed tomography (CT scans) of the so-called “Golden Boy,” mummy from ancient Egypt have revealed a hidden trove of 49 amulets, many of which were made of gold.  The young mummy earned its nickname because of the dazzling display of wealth, which included a gilded head mask found in the mummy’s sarcophagus.
Full Story: Live Science (1/24)

Don’t say ‘mummy’.  Here’s why some museums are rebranding ancient Egyptian remains,

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Models walk the runway during the Chanel haute couture spring/summer 2023 show as part of Paris fashion week
Photograph: François Durand/Getty Images

Bristol, UK
Deer graze during sunrise at Ashton Court Estate
Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA

Trabzon, Turkey
Sumela Monastery is illuminated at night during the winter season in Trabzon. The monastery, which is included in Unesco’s temporary list of world heritage sites, was reopened for religious practice in 2010 after an 88-year hiatus
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 24^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1848, gold was discovered in the river at Sutter’s Mill in Coloma, Calif. Thus began the California Gold Rush, an economic boom⁠ that attracted an estimated 300,000 people to the then sparsely populated state⁠.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 20,629.55 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.1%.
Magna International Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.2%.
Today, 110 of 236 shares fell, while 121 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 6.4%
* The index advanced 0.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.3% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 7.1% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 15.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 5.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 on a trailing basis and 13.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.28t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 12.87% compared with 12.88% in the previous session and the average of 13.14% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -34.2853| -0.9| 6/32
Information Technology | -17.3475| -1.4| 5/9
Consumer Discretionary | -5.4800| -0.7| 10/4
Real Estate | -0.9136| -0.2| 7/14
Utilities | -0.0969| 0.0| 6/10
Health Care | 0.1790| 0.2| 3/3
Financials | 5.4750| 0.1| 14/15
Consumer Staples | 7.9564| 1.0| 9/2
Communication Services | 8.9610| 0.9| 5/1
Industrials | 9.2035| 0.3| 17/9
Materials | 24.3251| 1.0| 39/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -14.9500| -3.1| 7.7| 21.4
Magna Intl | -11.6000| -7.2| 177.0| 6.8
Enbridge | -6.4300| -0.8| 108.3| 5.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | 3.9010| 1.6| -18.0| 9.0
Franco-Nevada | 4.3140| 1.7| 10.9| 7.4
Rogers Communications| 4.5970| 2.9| 41.2| 4.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw some buyer fatigue after a solid equity rally, with investors scouring a batch of earnings for clues on the outlook for Corporate America amid mounting fears about a recession.
The S&P 500 halted a two-day advance.
Just before the start of the tech earnings season, a few other bellwethers reported their numbers.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell on disappointing results from Union Pacific Corp. 3M Co., the maker of Post-it notes, forecast profit that trailed estimates and said it plans to cut jobs. Homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. beat
projections.
A combination of mixed earnings and economic numbers is making investors hesitant to take on more risk particularly after an equity surge that drove the S&P 500 up more than 10% from its mid-October low.
US business activity contracted for a seventh month, though at a more moderate pace, while a measure of input prices firmed in a sign of lingering inflationary pressures.
Corporate Highlights:
* The US Justice Department and eight states sued Alphabet Inc.’s Google, calling for the break up of the search giant’s ad-technology business over alleged illegal monopolization of the digital advertising market.
* General Electric Co. continues to grapple with lingering issues in its renewable energy business, even as the slimmed-down manufacturer says strong demand for air travel will help boost overall profits this year.
* Johnson & Johnson guided to stronger earnings for 2023 than analysts were expecting after a year in which the pharma division suffered because of waning demand for its unpopular Covid-19 shot.
* Halliburton Co. boosted its dividend 33% as the world’s biggest provider of fracking services follows its oil-and-gas clients by expanding shareholder returns amid tight global supplies for crude.
* Verizon Communications Inc.’s profit outlook trailed Wall Street estimates in a sign that the consumer wireless business continues to weigh down performance.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
“The range of problems is greater than it usually is — maybe as great as I’ve ever seen,” Grantham added.
A strong start to the year for US tech stocks is facing a pair of technical roadblocks.
The recent Nasdaq 100 rally has left the gauge just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its 2021 record high and September low.
That level acted as resistance three different times late last year, with rallies fading just above it each time.
Even if it does manage a successful break, it will then face a test of its 200-day moving average, a line it hasn’t traded above in nearly a year.
The New York Stock Exchange said some trades will be declared “null and void” after determining a “system issue” resulted in a group of securities commencing trading without an opening auction price.
The exchange said that the trades will be reviewed as “clearly erroneous” under NYSE rules.
That applies to trades in certain securities that did not conduct an opening auction, that occurred after the 9:30 a.m. bell but before certain pricing levels were set, and were executed further from the reference price, NYSE said in an updated statement on its website.
Now with the Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1 rate decision about a week away, traders in the options market are contemplating a scenario in which the rate hike it’s expected to deliver ends up being the last one of the tightening cycle.
The swap market is pricing around 48 basis points of rate hikes over the next two policy meetings.
That implies a small chance — approximately 8% — that if the Fed raises its benchmark rate by a quarter point next week, it could be the central bank’s final move in a tightening cycle that has marked the most aggressive action against inflation in several decades.
“It’s almost like people are trying to project forward toward the end the Fed tightening policy and trying to find a bottom here and a new bull-market rally,” said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer of First American Trust. “But that’s in light of deteriorating economic statistics and I think that’s a little premature.”
Key events this week:
* Earnings for the week include: Abbott Laboratories, ASML Holding, AT&T, Boeing, International Business Machines, NextEraEnergy, Tesla (Wednesday); American Airlines, Blackstone, Comcast, Diageo, Intel, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Mastercard, SAP, Southwest Airlines, Visa (Thursday); American Express, Charter Communications, Chevron, HCA Healthcare (Friday)
* US MBA mortgage applications, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Wednesday
* US fourth-quarter GDP, new home sales, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* US personal income/spending, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, pending home sales, Friday

* Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0882
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2335
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 130.17 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $23,018.84
* Ether fell 1% to $1,615.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.15%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 3.28%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to $80.11 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,955.40 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Matt Turner, Peyton Forte, Isabelle Lee, Vildana Hajric, Emily Graffeo and Felice Maranz.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

It is usually the reply that causes the fight. –Japanese Proverb.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com