January 13, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday – good luck it’s the 13^th!
January 13, 2018: A false emergency alert warning of an impending missile strike in Hawaii causes widespread panic in the state.

January 13, 1989: New York City subway gunman Bernhard H. Goetz was sentenced to one year in prison for possessing an unlicensed gun that he used to shoot four youths he said were about to rob him. Go to article » 

Scientists reckon they’ve worked out why chocolate tastes so darned good.

Spectacular Butterfly Nebula offers a glimpse of our sun’s final fate: Deep in the constellation Scorpius, a cosmic butterfly spreads its wings.  Meet NGC 6302, an enormous shell of glowing gas better known as the Butterfly Nebula. Located about 4,000 light-years from Earth, the double-winged nebula is a spectacular example of what happens when stars like the sun run out of fuel and die. Full Story: Live Science (1/13)

Wishing well used for Bronze Age ‘cult rituals’ discovered in Bavaria:  Archaeologists in Bavaria, Germany, have unearthed a 3,000-year-old wooden wishing well overflowing with more than 100 artifacts dating to the Bronze Age.  Unlike modern-day wishing wells, where people toss in coins and make a wish, the items in this well were placed there for “ritual purposes” in what is now the Bavarian town of Germering. Full Story: Live Science (1/12)

The show is going on at Kyiv’s National Opera and Ballet Theater.

Five ways wine will change in 2023

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Xi’an, China
A lantern featuring a fairy is illuminated during a lantern show at Tang Paradise before Chinese new year, the year of the rabbit
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Beijing, China
The Jiankou Great Wall is seen covered by snow
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
The week in wildlife – in pictures
An Australian rainbow lorikeet (Trichoglossus Moluccanus) perched on a tree in Adelaide, Australia
Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for January 13^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1937: The first shipment of gold was received at the Fort Knox Bullion Depository, the U.S. nation’s official gold vault.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 0.7%, or 148.9 to 20,360.10 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 2.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 6.1%.
Today, 150 of 236 shares rose, while 79 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2.8%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 11
* The index declined 4.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 13.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 13 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.27t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.65% compared with 13.72% in the previous session and the average of 13.56% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 48.8662| 0.8| 22/6
Information Technology | 28.3344| 2.5| 9/5
Industrials | 24.6162| 0.9| 14/12
Energy | 15.4223| 0.4| 28/10
Materials | 10.0495| 0.4| 30/18
Consumer Staples | 7.1413| 0.9| 9/2
Communication Services | 4.7835| 0.5| 3/3
Consumer Discretionary | 4.4557| 0.6| 8/7
Utilities | 3.1240| 0.4| 10/5
Real Estate | 2.4057| 0.4| 13/8
Health Care | -0.2922| -0.4| 4/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 24.4800| 6.1| 0.6| 10.8
Canadian Pacific | 11.4300| 1.7| 13.6| 5.0
TD Bank | 8.0160| 0.7| 22.1| 1.3
Lundin Mining | -2.6890| -5.9| 70.3| 11.3
Algonquin Power | -2.7900| -6.3| 66.0| 1.2
Nutrien | -4.7400| -1.3| -23.8| 1.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at the highest in a month as data showed a decline in inflation expectations and big banks rebounded from losses driven by worrisome outlooks.
Treasuries retreated.
Ahead of Monday’s US holiday, the S&P 500 crossed its 200-day moving average and finished within a hair of 4,000.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co., which reported results, pushed higher.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed for a sixth straight day, the longest winning run since November 2021 — the month when it hit an all-time high.
“While equity and bond markets are overbought in the near term and potentially exposed to a pullback and/or a period of volatility, there are reasons for cautious optimism for the year,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide.

US short-term inflation views fell in early January to the lowest in nearly two years, providing a bigger-than-expected boost to consumer sentiment.
To Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial, pricing pressures are weakening across many sectors, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to downshift its pace of hikes to 25 basis points at its next gathering.
“We shouldn’t be surprised if the Fed starts talking about pausing in the near future,” he added.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic told CBS News he’s leaning toward supporting a smaller rate hike at the next meeting following Thursday’s report showing a further slowing in prices.
Over the next few weeks, traders will get a sense on how the aggressive Fed policy to tame inflation has weighed on profit margins.
JPMorgan’s boss Jamie Dimon said that while the economy remains strong “we still do not know the ultimate effect of the headwinds coming.”
Corporate earnings have yet to fully reflect the impact of last year’s rate hikes, according to Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
He expects fourth-quarter results to provide a “reality check,” with an earnings recession in 2023 being very likely.
To Peter Oppenheimer at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., there’s an important distinction between financial markets and the economy.
“We do have a relatively positive view on economies globally: in fact, we are not looking at a recession in the US this year,” he told Bloomberg Television. “Because of that strength, interest-rate risk remains higher than the market is
pricing. And that’s what feeds into a more cautious view for equity markets.”
S&P 500 earnings revisions are pointing to “a hard landing” even though the market is pricing in a soft landing, Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin wrote.
If there is no recession, as the team expects, S&P 500 earnings per share growth will be flat this year, they said.
US stocks are poised for a fresh slide before ultimately rallying in the second half of the year when economic conditions stabilize, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Michael Hartnett.
“It’s a back-and-forth market,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. “I don’t really buy the intense gloom that some people have that it’s going to get much worse, or the other extreme that we’ve already  started a new bull market. I don’t think we’re there yet either.”
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that the US economy is still facing a recession this year, despite encouraging news in recent weeks.
“We’ve been in the inflationary bus, which is a fancy way of saying stagflation, and that’s not a great environment for financial assets,” said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. “Equities don’t like the slowing economic activity and bonds don’t like the inflation part of it. So, we should get resolution this year on how do we break out of that stagflationary environment.”

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0833
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2234
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 127.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.4% to $19,467.05
* Ether was little changed at $1,427
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.17%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.37%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $79.95 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1.3% to $1,924 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Emily Graffeo, Peyton Forte, Isabelle Lee and Lu Wang.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every New Year find you a better man. -Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com