November 30, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
November 30, 1835: Author Mark Twain was born Samuel Langhorne Clemens in Florida, Mo. Go to article »
1982: American singer and songwriter Michael Jackson releases Thriller, which became the best-selling album in the world and won a record setting eight Grammy Awards.

Winston Churchill, statesman, b. 1874.
Mark Twain, writer, b. 1835.

Rockefeller Center Christmas tree lighting set for today.  The kickoff to the Christmas season in New York City isn’t complete without the annual tree lighting at Rockefeller Center. Here’s how to watch.

Photos: the last time humans walked on the moon.

What Kind of Man Was Anthony Bourdain?

RIP, Christine McVie.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano erupts
The eruption began on Sunday night at the summit of the volcano after a series of large earthquakes.
Photograph: Andrew Richard Hara/Getty Images

Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano erupts
Some parts of Big Island are under an ashfall advisory issued by the national weather service in Honolulu, which said up to 0.6cm of ash could accumulate in some areas.
Photograph: MediaPunch/REX/Shutterstock

Christine McVie of Fleetwood Mac
. ‘I haven’t thought about making another record. The Songbird album might be my swansong. I’m going to be 80 next year, so I gotta slow down a bit, you know?’
Photograph: Randee St Nicholas
Market Closes for November 30^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1988, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. won the bidding war to do a leveraged buyout of tobacco-and-food conglomerate RJR Nabisco for more than $25 billion. The deal generated over $1 billion in fees for Wall Street—and setting the high-water mark for the LBO craze and junk-bond binge of the 1980s.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.9%, or 175.85 to 20,453.26 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.2% on Nov. 22.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 9.5%.
Today, 177 of 236 shares rose, while 56 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 3.6%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 5.3%
* The index declined 1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 7.9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 14.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 5.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 on a trailing basis and 12.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.23t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.76% compared with 14.87% in the previous session and the average of 19.30% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 58.0135| 5.2| 12/2
Financials | 42.8630| 0.7| 23/6
Industrials | 39.7080| 1.5| 24/2
Materials | 24.8563| 1.0| 44/7
Utilities | 11.6200| 1.3| 15/1
Consumer Discretionary | 10.4268| 1.4| 11/3
Communication Services | 2.3295| 0.2| 4/2
Real Estate | 2.1671| 0.4| 10/11
Consumer Staples | 2.0951| 0.2| 8/3
Health Care | 1.6975| 2.0| 5/2
Energy | -19.9332| -0.5| 21/17
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 39.2900| 9.5| 142.3| -68.3
Brookfield Asset Management | 23.2100| 3.9| 126.5| -17.0
Canadian National | 11.4500| 1.6| 121.2| 11.1
Nutrien | -10.2400| -2.5| 166.4| 13.7
Suncor Energy | -11.4000| -2.6| 99.4| 39.7
TC Energy | -11.5700| -2.7| 313.8| 1.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied across the board as Jerome Powell signaled a slowdown in the pace of tightening as early as December, while indicating more hikes to fight inflation.
Bond yields slumped with the dollar.
Amid all the optimism, the S&P 500 closed at a two-month high, notching its longest monthly winning streak since August 2021.
The gauge also breached its 200-day moving average: a threshold seen by some analysts as heralding more gains.
The Nasdaq 100 jumped about 4.5% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 20% from its September low — meeting the bull- market definition.
Bond traders dialed back their expectations for how high they think the Fed might need to push its benchmark, with swap markets suggesting the key overnight rate might peak below 5%.
Powell’s comments likely cement expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points when they meet Dec. 13-14, following four straight 75 basis-point moves.
Though he also noted that rates are likely to reach a “somewhat higher” level than officials estimated in September.

Comments:
* Callie Cox at eToro: Powell just said what the market has been thinking all along. But before you get too excited, remember that this is a shift, not a pivot. Powell has been clear that rates could stay high for some time.  At this point, it may be time to start sowing seeds for the next bull market, but try not to get carried away. High rate environments favor quality companies that prove they can execute, so keep that in mind as you pile back into risky markets.
* Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI: Most importantly for risk assets, Powell’s remarks embraced the return of some two-sided risk management. That is a big deal for equities and means an outsized move in stocks relative to the rates market is justified.  The caveat is that Powell’s tone can be unstable from one event to the next, and he might in retrospect judge that he was a bit too risk-friendly, given the risks associated with letting go of financial conditions too soon.
* Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial: Much of Chair Powell’s comments were benign and predictable.  Overall, this speech will likely be bullish for the markets in the near term.
* Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research: Powell is giving the Fed an off-ramp to 75 basis point moves, but I don’t think you can rule out anything else. There is a reasonably strong chance the Fed extends 50 basis point hikes or 25 basis point hikes.
* Roberto Bagnato at Immobiliare Quadronno Srl: This rally is a nonsense: Powell said they will slow down, but that rates will have to go higher than forecasted earlier.  The market wants to listen only to the first part of Powell’s
statement.

Traders also scoured several economic reports, with key gauges of US activity painting a mixed third-quarter picture.
Job openings fell in October — a hopeful sign for the Fed as it seeks to curb demand.
The figures precede Friday’s jobs report, which is currently forecast to show employers added 200,000 workers to payrolls in November.
Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%, and for average hourly earnings to moderate.
Key events this week:
* S&P Global PMIs, Thursday
* US construction spending, consumer income, initial jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, Thursday
* BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda speaks, Thursday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* ECB’s Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 3.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 4.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0408
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.2056
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 138.05 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.8% to $17,083.33
* Ether rose 6.2% to $1,294.71
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 3.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.93%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 3.16%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.1% to $80.62 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1.2% to $1,784.10 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Richard Nixon would have been a great, great man had somebody loved him. –Henry Kissinger, b.1923.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com