September 26,2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

It’s Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year.  Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish holiday that has been celebrated for over a thousand years, began on Sunday with prayer, traditions, and special foods. You may get a little hungry after looking at this delicious challah bread!

September 26, 1904: Earl Grey is named British governor-general of Canada.  Go to article »

The world’s best airline for 2022 named.  It’s been a bumpy year for the aviation industry, but experts say this airline remained first class amid the travel chaos.

Elton John left ‘flabbergasted’ after Biden’s surprise.  Legendary singer Elton John recently performed a concert at the White House and was shocked to receive this special surprise from the President.

7 scenic drives across the US with picture-perfect autumn views.

If you need a fall foliage fix, these places will not disappoint.

Why did the Roman Empire split in two?   An old adage states that Rome wasn’t built in a day, meaning that big projects take time to complete. The Roman Empire, as an example, was established gradually and grew over hundreds of years from a city-state to a colossal empire stretching from Britain to Egypt.   And just as Rome and its empire wasn’t built in a day, it wasn’t destroyed in one either. For centuries, Rome was the center of the empire, but as Rome’s fortunes changed, the seat of power eventually shifted away from the city, and the empire permanently split into two separate states in A.D. 395 — one in the east, and one in the west. But why did the Roman Empire divide into the Western Roman Empire and Eastern Roman Empire? And did it happen quickly?  Full Story: Live Science (9/25)  P.S. I’m off to the Delivering Alpha investment conference in NYC for the remainder of the week.  I’ll be back next week with enlightened insight hopefully.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY -The Painters of Pompeii

In the words of exhibition curator Mario Grimaldi: ‘If classical Grecian painters were deemed “property of the universe” by Pliny the Elder, their Roman pictore contemporaries were skilled craftsmen. Painting was relegated to the work of freedmen, slaves, women and people incapable of political and military life.’
Credit to: The Guardian, Mon 26 Sep 2022

Visitors will gain insight into a wide selection of the most popular compositional schemes across the different periods of Roman art, observing how some artists were able to give an original vision of decorative models, which was continuously varied and updated in line with fashions and styles
Credit to: The Guardian, Mon 26 Sep 2022

Masterpieces from various domus (ancient Roman dwellings famous for the beautiful wall decorations from which they often take their name) are on show in Bologna
Credit to: The Guardian, Mon 26 Sep 2022
Market Closes for September 26, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1955, President Dwight D. Eisenhower suffered a heart attack, and the stock market had a coronary right with him, plunging by 6.62%—which even today remains one of the worst daily losses of the past 100 years.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fifth day, dropping 0.8%, or 153.94 to 18,327.04 in Toronto. The index dropped to the lowest closing level in at least a year.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 7 of 11 sectors lost; 173 of 236 shares fell, while 60 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%. Athabasca Oil Corp. had the largest drop, falling 9.2%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 14%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 2.8%
* This month, the index fell 5.2%
* The index declined 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 0.9% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 6.3% in the past 5 days and fell 7.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 on a trailing basis and 11.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.95t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 16.65% compared with 16.61% in the previous session and the average of 14.37% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -77.7193| -2.4| 4/34
Materials | -26.5900| -1.3| 10/40
Utilities | -21.4550| -2.2| 0/16
Financials | -10.9569| -0.2| 9/19
Communication Services | -10.7751| -1.1| 0/7
Real Estate | -8.4243| -1.8| 2/20
Industrials | -3.6335| -0.1| 14/13
Information Technology | 0.5236| 0.1| 7/7
Health Care | 0.6725| 0.8| 3/3
Consumer Staples | 1.4782| 0.2| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary | 2.9591| 0.5| 7/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD |Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural | Resources | -16.8700| -3.4| 79.3| 17.6
Bank of Nova Scotia| -15.8500| -2.8| 141.3| -24.8
Cenovus Energy | -9.1920| -4.6| 42.5| 29.2
Magna Intl | 3.6090| 2.9| 16.8| -31.6
RBC | 4.7060| 0.4| 23.3| -7.7
TD Bank | 7.0920| 0.7| 139.5| -12.4
US
By Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell in a volatile session exacerbated by sharp moves in the UK currency and bond markets, as hawkish central banks across the globe continued to subdue sentiment.
The S&P 500 ended Monday’s session at its lowest level since December 2020. The Cboe Volatility Index spiked past 30, a level it hasn’t closed above since June. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year rate climbing as much as 21 basis points to 3.898%, its highest level since April 2010.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, a key gauge for raw materials prices, tumbled to the lowest in eight months as fears of a global recession intensified. The pound dropped after the Bank of England said it may not act before November to stem a rout that took the sterling to a record low. The dollar soared to yet another record high.
Markets are on the edge after a selloff of risk assets deepened last week as the UK’s plan to lift its economy fueled fears that heightened inflation would push rates higher and ignite a global recession. UK markets were in focus on Monday as the pound remained volatile after crashing to an all-time low, with the Bank of England’scomments doing little to reassure traders who were waiting for a broader policy response to the fallout from the government’s massive tax cuts.
Federal Reserve officials added to the hawkish rhetoric. On Monday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said additional tightening is needed to rein in stubbornly high inflation and cautioned the process will require some job losses. Her Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester echoed this. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said the central bank still has a ways to go to control inflation.
“On the macro front, it feels like a remake of West Side Story, with a gang of central bankers going after the job market, which refuses to let go,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “Powell and now Andrew Bailey at the BOE are trying to slow the economy down, but my sense is employers are keeping as many workers as they can to avoid being left out in the cold when we recover from the next recession. So we almost have an arms race with central bankers raising rates and employers holding on to workers.”
US markets will continue to remain challenged by uncertainty until companies start to report their third-quarter earnings next month, which will provide greater detail on the health of corporate revenues and profit, wrote John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer. Any company or industry that needs lower rates could be in trouble, FBB’s Bailey says.
Investors will also be keeping an eye on the economic data stream for hints of prices cooling, Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley, wrote in a note. “What the market will need to see now to get out of the current conundrum is for inflation inputs to start coming down noticeably,” said Hogan. “We will get a read on the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator this Thursday when the second quarter core PCE is reported. Along with that investors will keep a close eye on the economic data stream for hints of prices paid coming down.”
Trading this week will be punctuated by a number of economic reports including US initial jobless claims and gross- domestic-product data, along with PMI figures from China.
Choppiness in price moves is likely with a steady stream of Federal Reserve officials speaking through the week.
The plunge in UK gilts sent 10-year yields above 4% for the first time since 2010. Traders ramped up wagers on the scale of interest-rate hikes in the short term, with money markets pricing in more than 200 basis points of increases by the central bank’s next meeting in November.
Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde said the European Central Bank will consider shrinking its balance sheet only once it has completed the “normalization” of interest rates. Raising borrowing costs is the most appropriate and effective tool for now to combat record-high euro-area inflation, the ECB President said on Monday.
Geopolitical risks from the war in Ukraine to escalating tensions over Taiwan and unrest in Iran also continue to weigh on market sentiment. The OECD cut almost all growth forecasts for the Group of 20 next year while anticipating further interest-rate hikes. And a gauge of German business confidence deteriorated.
Key events this week:
* China industrial profits, Tuesday
* US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence, durable goods, Tuesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Charles Evans speak at events, Tuesday
* Fed’s Mary Daly, Rafael Bostic, Charles Evans and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak at events, Wednesday
* Euro zone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester, Mary Daly speak at events, Thursday
* China PMI, Friday
* Euro zone CPI, unemployment, Friday
* US consumer income , University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Lael Brainard and John Williams speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1% as of 4:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $0.9617
* The British pound fell 1.5% to $1.0697
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 144.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $19,173.2
* Ether rose 2.9% to $1,329.58
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 21 basis points to 3.89%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 42 basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $76.92 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.3% to $1,633.60 an ounce

–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Peyton Forte, Natalia
Kniazhevich and Abigail Moses.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember
from time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught. –Oscar Wilde, 1854-1900.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com