September 14,2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 14, 2022: great fire of Moscow begins as Napoleon approaches the city and retreating Russians burn it – fire continues to burn for five days.
2000: Chase Manhattan agreed to buy J.P. Morgan for more than $35 billion, creating the third largest financial company in the U.S. Go to article »

‘The Crown’ viewership surged on Netflix after Queen Elizabeth’s death.  Following the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Netflix viewers tuned into the show about her life.

Ferrari’s first four-door car is here.  It looks like an SUV… but the company insists people shouldn’t call it that.

New James Webb telescope images reveal the chaotic beauty of Orion’s sword: How do you know you’re looking at Orion’s belt? It’s just a waist of space.  Dad jokes aside, Orion is one of the best known and most studied constellations in the Milky Way. With its nearest stars located just a few hundred light-years from Earth, the constellation is home to some of the largest and brightest stars in the sky (including the infamous red star Betelgeuse) and a thriving nursery of fiery, newborn stars ripe for studying. Now, using the powerful new James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), researchers have captured the sharpest and most detailed images of Orion in history.
Full Story: Live Science (9/13)

Vanished arm of Nile helped ancient Egyptians transport pyramids materials:  When the ancient Egyptians built the pyramids of Giza around 4,500 years ago, the Nile River had an arm — one that has long since vanished — with high water levels that helped laborers ship materials to their construction site, a new study finds.  The discovery builds on previous archaeological and historical findings that the Nile had an extra arm flowing by the pyramids. But now, by analyzing ancient pollen samples taken from earthen cores, it’s clear that “the former waterscapes and higher river levels” gave the Giza Pyramid’s builders a leg up, a team of researchers wrote in a paper published Aug. 29 in the journal the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  Full Story: Live Science (9/14)

Uranus will vanish during ‘lunar occultation’ Wednesday night:  Depending on where in the world you’ll be Wednesday night (Sept. 14), you may be able to see Uranus disappear. (Don’t worry; it’ll be back again a few hours later.)  On Wednesday, the sixth planet from the sun will appear to pass directly behind Earth’s moon, going completely out of sight for three and a half hours. The great disappearing act, also known as the lunar occultation of Uranus, begins around 4:41 p.m. ET (2041 GMT) and ends by 8:11 p.m. ET (0011 GMT on Sept. 15), according to In-the-sky.org. However, only viewers in Europe, northern Africa and western Asia will be at the exact right angle to see the illusion work.  Full Story: Live Science (9/13)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Queen’s coffin travels down Horse Guards Parade
Photograph: Andy Hall/The Observer

The Imperial State Crown lies on top of the Queen’s coffin
Photograph: Tom Jenkins/WPA/Getty Images

The coffin is laid in Westminster Hall.
Photograph: Linda Nylind/The Guardian
Market Closes for September 14, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 2008, U.K. bank Barclays withdrew as the last potential buyer for Lehman Brothers, setting the stage for the bank’s collapse.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 19,726.14 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.7%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.7%.
Today, 130 of 237 shares rose, while 105 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 7.1%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 4.6%
* The index declined 4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.5% in the past 5 days and fell 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 on a trailing basis and 12.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.73% compared with 14.70% in the previous session and the average of 13.53% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 73.3206| 2.0| 37/1
Materials | 15.0552| 0.7| 30/21
Information Technology | 11.6900| 1.1| 10/4
Financials | 10.0855| 0.2| 16/13
Health Care | 1.4946| 2.0| 5/2
Utilities | 0.7340| 0.1| 7/9
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8843| -0.3| 5/7
Consumer Staples | -2.3673| -0.3| 6/4
Real Estate | -5.6611| -1.1| 2/21
Industrials | -8.7324| -0.3| 10/18
Communication Services | -12.9915| -1.4| 2/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.6100| 2.4| 56.6| 41.1
Nutrien | 10.5700| 2.4| -18.2| 27.0
Shopify | 9.7620| 2.9| -23.7| -74.5
Telus | -3.0190| -1.1| -40.8| -4.2
Canadian National | -3.2370| -0.5| -3.4| 1.6
Canadian Pacific | -3.5260| -0.5| 6.8| 11.7
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rebounded in late trading a day after hot inflation sparked the biggest rout in more than two years.
The dollar fell, while short-end Treasury yields edged higher.
After swinging between gains and losses throughout the day, dip buyers emerged to send the S&P 500 into the green at the close.
Trading volume was about 20% above the 30-day average for the time of day, as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
The benchmark sank more than 4% Tuesday following a shock consumer-price figure that prompted investors to ratchet up wagers for interest-rate increases.
Those jitters eased Wednesday after data showed producer prices fell for a second month.
Retail sales due Thursday and University of Michigan readings Friday will be parsed for clues on the strength of the economy and inflation expectations.
Swaps traders are now pricing in a hike of three-quarters of a percentage point when the Fed meets next week, with some wagers appearing for a full-point move.
The two-year Treasury yield, the most sensitive to policy changes, rose two basis points after jumping as much as 22 basis points Tuesday, pushing it more than 30 basis points above the 10-year rate.
That deepened the curve inversion in what is generally a recession warning.
“Investors are trying to figure out if yesterday changes anything, and that is a tug of war,” Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, said. “Everyone is waiting to see the next inflation data point and importantly hear what the Fed thinks next week. Friday’s University of Michigan is important from the inflation expectation outlook.”
While the magnitude of Tuesday’s rout was impressive, the S&P 500 only reversed most of the gains made in the previous four sessions.
The lack of a surge in the VIX index — known as the “fear gauge” — suggests that the selloff was a recalibration of those expectations rather than panic selling.
“The fact that the market was not able to break above its morning highs must be disappointing for the bulls,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. “During the summer selloffs, the market always seemed to be able to bounce back quickly. Since it hasn’t been able to do that today, some short-term traders seem to be backing away from the market a bit more.”
More commentary:
* “History tells us that whenever we have had a 4% one-day decline, we usually see a bounce of about 1% the day after,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance. “But then we sort of trade sideways for the next month before resuming an uptrend three months down the road. Investors just have to hold onto their hats right now.”
* “The biggest and growing downside risk for the market is increasing recession risk as the Fed aggressively tightens into a slowing economy,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said in a note. “On the other side, there is at least one partial offset: Investor expectations are low and already braced for bad news.”
* “Financial conditions are biased to tighten, but PEs are much lower now vs previous financial conditions tightening periods,” Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research, wrote. “Investors are likely discounting much weaker EPS, but those negative outcomes are largely priced in. A much more aggressive Fed does increase the odds of a harder economic landing though.”
* “People with a plan don’t panic — so in days like yesterday where volatility is at extremes, good investors and good advisors are looking for opportunity,” Tom Mantione, private wealth advisor at UBS Financial Services, said on Bloomberg Radio, noting Wednesday’s PPI report was “constructive.” “I kind of think the Fed may be overdoing it here a little bit. Maybe we need to let this play out a bit.”

In corporate news, Verizon Communications Inc. fell after signaling another weak quarter in terms of new subscribers while Twilio Inc. rose after the maker of customer communication and marketing software said it will cut about 11% of jobs and restructure the company.
California sued Amazon.com Inc., saying the company forces third-party merchants to agree to policies that lead to “artificially high prices” for consumers.
Natural gas futures surged the most among major US-traded commodities as hot weather forecasts and a looming rail strike added to concern about tight supplies ahead of winter.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index slipped almost 1%, extending Tuesday’s 1.6% drop.
Utilities were the among the worst-performing sectors as the European Commission considers plans to contain the energy crisis, which may include revenue caps.
The yen pulled back from a slide toward the key 145 level versus the dollar after a Nikkei report that the Bank of Japan conducted a so-called rate check with traders to see the price of the currency against the greenback.
The finance minister warned he wouldn’t rule out any response if current trends continued. The country’s 10-year bond yield rose to 0.25%, the upper end of the central bank’s policy band.

Here are some key events to watch this week:
* US business inventories, empire manufacturing, retail sales, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* China home sales, retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets, surveyed jobless rate, Friday
* Euro area CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $0.9979
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.1540
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 143.19 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 1.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.13%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $88.78 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,705.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Matt Turner, Allegra Catelli, Denitsa Tsekova, Robert Brand, John McCorry, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Go often to the house of thy friend, for weeds choke the unused path. –Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com