July 5, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
1946: The bikini was born; designed by French engineer Louis Réard makes its debut in Paris.
See the spectacular finale of the DC fireworks show.  If you missed the stunning finale of Washington, DC’s July 4th fireworks show, you can watch the video here! 

Tom Cruise turned 60.  While “Top Gun: Maverick” cruises at the top of the box office, Mr. Cruise spent his birthday at the British Grand Prix F1 race. Looking good, Tom!

The Higgs boson turns ten.

South African fossils may rewrite history of human evolution::
Ancient human-like fossils in South Africa may be more than a million years older than previously thought, which raises the odds that the species they came from gave rise to humans, a new study finds.
The new date could rewrite a few key stages in the history of human evolution. That’s because the finding suggests these fossils belong to a species that may predate the iconic 3.2-million-year-old “Lucy” fossil. Lucy’s species was long thought to potentially have been the prime contender for the direct ancestor of humans.  Full Story: Live Science (7/3)

When did Earth’s first forests emerge?  From Earth’s tallest living plants, California’s redwoods, to the planet’s largest tropical rainforest, the Amazon, stately forests may seem timeless. But like every species or ecosystem, they have a birth date. In fact, though plants first arrived on land about 470 million years ago, trees and forests didn’t hit the scene until nearly 390 million years ago.  During that interval, plant life slowly evolved genetic precursors needed to produce trees, which then outcompeted other plants, Chris Berry, a paleobotanist at Cardiff University in the United Kingdom, told Live Science.  Full Story: Live Science (7/2) 

Why do people believe in conspiracy theories?
Conspiracy theories lurk all over the internet and cover a dizzying range of topics — from the idea that the moon landings were faked to the belief that Earth is flat. Often, believers will readily dismiss any and all evidence that contradicts such claims, and suggest that witnesses or experts who dispute the ideas are simply part of the conspiracy.  Why do people believe in conspiracy theories, even when there is a mountain of evidence to show that they are incorrect? Why are conspiracy theories so prevalent today — and what exactly is a conspiracy theory?  Full Story: Live Science (7/3) 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Crowds watch from the Lincoln Memorial as fireworks explode during US Independence Day celebrations at the Washington Monument
CREDIT: Will Oliver/EPA

Activists from People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals and AnimaNaturalis, dressed as dinosaurs, take part in a demonstration against bullfighting a day before the start of the San Fermín festival
CREDIT: Vincent West/Reuters

A boat manoeuvres among icebergs in Disko Bay in western Greenland. The icebergs originate from Jakobshavn glacier (Sermeq Kujalleq), the most productive glacier in the northern hemisphere
CREDIT: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images

Market Closes for July 5^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1810, Phineas Taylor Barnum was born in Bethel, Conn., to Philo and Irena Taylor Barnum. He later founded Barnum’s American Museum, and, in 1870, created what became the Barnum & Bailey Circus. He never, however, said “There’s a sucker born every minute.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1% at 18,834.16 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since June 23 after the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 4 of 11 sectors lost; 158 of 238 shares fell, while 79 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.9%.
Athabasca Oil Corp. had the largest drop, falling 13.4%.
Insights
* The index declined 7.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week low and 15.2% below its high on April 5, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.2% in the past 5 days and fell 9.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 on a trailing basis and 11.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.05t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 19.60% compared with 19.56% in the previous session and the average of 20.02% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Energy | -146.9762| -4.2| 0/38
* Materials | -98.4482| -4.4| 3/48
* Financials | -25.0510| -0.4| 8/21
* Utilities | -1.7759| -0.2| 6/9
* Real Estate | 2.0376| 0.4| 9/14
* Health Care | 2.8934| 3.9| 5/2
* Consumer Staples | 3.9050| 0.5| 9/2
* Consumer Discretionary| 5.4283| 0.9| 6/7
* Communication Services| 7.9630| 0.8| 6/1
* Industrials | 11.4894| 0.5| 15/14
* Information Technology| 43.8353| 4.3| 12/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Canadian Natural Resources | -39.3800| -6.9| 15.7| 25.2
* Suncor Energy | -25.9100| -5.8| -2.9| 36.9
* Nutrien | -18.9200| -4.9| 76.4| 2.4
* Canadian National | 6.5550| 1.1| 21.1| -4.9
* Brookfield Asset Management | 14.8000| 2.6| -0.8| -23.4
* Shopify | 31.5600| 9.9| 493.2| -74.5
US
By Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte
(Bloomberg) — US Treasuries rallied as talks of easing tariffs on China imposed by the former administration failed to alleviate recession fears. Commodities from oil to copper remained under pressure as the dollar rose.
The S&P 500 eked out a modest gain after falling as much as 2.2%, as easing energy prices and bond yields took pressure off higher-valuation shares.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7%.
Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield around 2.83%.
Data released Tuesday also showed durable goods orders and factory orders rose more than expected in May.
Investors continued to fret over a potential US recession and stubborn inflation despite talks of tariff reductions.
US and Chinese officials held discussions after reports that Washington is close to rolling back some of the trade levies imposed by the former administration.
Reducing tariffs on imported Chinese goods could impact consumer prices in the US, but some suggest that it would do little to cool inflation.
“With the first half of the year moving into the rear-view mirror, investors can’t help but wonder what lies ahead in a year that thus far has wrought heightened levels of uncertainty, disruption and dysfunction that has rattled asset class values across the spectrum of the good, the bad, and the ugly,” said John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.
The odds of a US recession in the next year are now 38%, according to latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics.
Signs of a rapidly deteriorating US economic outlook have spurred bond traders to pencil in a complete policy turnaround by the Federal Reserve in the coming year, with interest-rate cuts in the middle of 2023.
“If the Fed changes course now, they might as well pack their bags and turn the lights off,” Kenneth Polcari, senior market strategist for Slatestone Wealth LLC, wrote in a note.
“Yes, the economy is slowing but inflation continues to be an issue and that is the focus now.”
In Australia, the central bank raised its key interest rate as expected to 1.35%. It’s among more than 80 central banks to have raised rates this year.
The nation’s dollar weakened after the decision.
In Europe, equities dropped to the lowest since January 2021 ahead of the earnings season, which investors will watch closely to see whether corporate profit growth can handle inflation and supply constraints.
Bitcoin rose after waffling throughout the session.
It traded around the $20,000 level.
What to watch this week:
* FOMC minutes, US PMIs, ISM services, JOLTS job openings, Wednesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Thursday
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, scheduled to speak, Thursday
* ECB account of its June policy meeting, Thursday
* US employment report for June, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1%
* The euro fell 1.5% to $1.0265
* The British pound fell 1.3% to $1.1956
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 135.78 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 2.82%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 15 basis points to 1.18%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 15 basis points to 2.05%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8.1% to $99.69 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.9% to $1,766.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Tassia Sipahutar, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Srinivasan Sivabalan and Julia Fanzeres.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Humankind has not woven the web of life.  We are but one thread within it. 
Whatever we do to the web we do to ourselves.  All things are bound together. 
All things connect. –Chief Seattle, 1790-1866.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com