June 22, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
1986: The famous Hand of God goal is scored by Diego Maradona in the quarter-finals of the 1986 FIFA World Cup match between Argentina & England.  Maradona followed up with the Goal of the Century.  Argentina wins 2-1 and goes on to  win the World Cup.
1871: U.S. Dept. of Justice created.

Some clues to where Mona Lisa smiled. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Rogue black hole wandering Milky Way alone proves Einstein right again.  Scientists have spotted the first ever rogue black hole wandering our galaxy. Using the Hubble Space Telescope, the team not only detected the rogue object, but also directly measured its mass  —  something researchers have only been able to infer in the past.  The stellar-mass black hole is located around 5,000 light-years from Earth in the Carina-Sagittarius spiral arm of the Milky Way. Usually, such objects have companion stars, yet this one is alone.  Full Story: Live Science (6/17) 

Stone Age discovery | Where Britain’s earliest residents lived

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The national monument to monument to the Windrush pioneers is unveiled at Waterloo station
CREDIT: John Sibley/Reuters

A member of Kazakhstan’s swimming team competes in the women’s team free preliminary at the Fina World Championships
CREDIT: Márton Mónus/Reuters

Glastonbury festival-goers begin arriving at Worthy Farm in Somerset
CREDIT: Dylan Martinez/Reuters

Market Closes for June 22^nd, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

MARKET COMMENTARY:
On this day in 1988, Dell Computer, run by then-23-year-old college dropout Michael Dell, went public on the Nasdaq at an initial price of $8.50 per share.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.3% at 19,004.04 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.1%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest drop, falling 12.0%.
Today, 190 of 239 shares fell, while 45 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 15 times. The next day, it declined 11 times for an average 0.9% and advanced four times for an average 0.3%
* This quarter, the index fell 13%, heading for the biggest decline since the first quarter of 2020
* This month, the index fell 8.3%
* The index declined 5.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 14.4% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 1.2% above its low on June 17, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.1% in the past 5 days and fell 5.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 on a trailing basis and 11.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.09t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 19.99% compared with 19.66% in the previous session and the average of 20.45% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Energy | -124.1583| -3.5| 0/38
* Financials | -75.8755| -1.2| 3/24
* Materials | -46.5560| -1.9| 4/47
* Consumer Staples | -9.5910| -1.2| 2/9
* Communication Services| -6.2683| -0.6| 2/5
* Real Estate | -3.6169| -0.7| 2/21
* Consumer Discretionary| -3.3133| -0.5| 2/11
* Health Care | -0.9458| -1.3| 2/4
* Utilities | 5.5592| 0.6| 11/5
* Industrials | 9.6537| 0.4| 9/20
* Information Technology| 10.0883| 1.0| 8/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Canadian Natural Resources | -28.6800| -5.1| 29.0| 26.0
* Suncor Energy | -24.4200| -5.2| -23.6| 44.1
* Bank of Nova Scotia| -18.6500| -2.8| 9.8| -13.0
* Canadian National | 4.7050| 0.8| -54.9| -8.4
* Canadian Pacific | 8.3200| 1.5| 108.1| 0.1
* Shopify | 11.6300| 3.5| 7.4| -74.8

US
By Peyton Forte and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks wavered after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his commitment to curb inflation and acknowledged the risk of recession, as some traders now expect the central bank to closely monitor the impact of its rate hikes on the economy.
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were little changed, paring earlier gains.
Treasury yields declined with the 10-year yield hovering around 3.14%.
The dollar fell after earlier gains while other safe haven assets such as gold climbed.
Testifying in the Senate Wednesday, Powell made no reference to the size of future hikes, but tacitly admitted that the Fed has failed to get its job done and said it would be difficult to engineer a soft landing. Still, some investors found reassurance in Powell’s comments as a signal that the Fed will factor in economic fundamentals and the probability of a recession as it moves to curtail inflation.
“He has acknowledged that rates will continue to increase, but the FOMC committee is cognizant of watching incoming data suggesting the Fed will not be exclusively on autopilot with tightening,”  said
Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager for Integrity Asset Management.
Powell’s tone was perceived as “less hawkish than feared” because there was no mention of the “unconditional” commitment to bring down inflation at the cost of higher unemployment, Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha and Peter Williams wrote in a note.  “The Fed monitors how the media and others respond to its communications carefully, so we doubt this omission was an accident,” they write.
The odds of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle extending beyond the November policy meeting, which is the week before US mid-term elections, have diminished sharply as traders continue to price the prospects of a hard-landing and swifter policy reversal next year.
Others still expect more uncertainty on the horizon as investors parse Powell’s testimony and comments from former New York Fed President Bill Dudley who said, in a Bloomberg Opinion column Wednesday, that a recession is “inevitable” within the next 12 to 18 months.
“No one’s going to want to come in and want to buy a market, put anything significant into the market while you’re getting this all-over-the-place volatility,” Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters.
The market continues to be skeptical about the outlook for risk assets.
Deutsche Bank AG’s Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing joined a growing chorus of executives and policy makers who warn that the global economy may be headed for a recession as central banks step up efforts to curb inflation.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below its $20,000 key level as investors remain concerned about a global recession.
Powell said, on Wednesday, that there are no significant macro effects so far from the crypto decline.
He also said that Congress should clarify who has the authority to regulate it.
What to watch this week:
* Powell US House testimony, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* PMIs for euro zone, France, Germany, UK, Australia, Thursday
* ECB economic bulletin, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* RBA’s Lowe speaks on panel, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 3:37 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 1.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0566
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2264
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 136.19 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 13 basis points to 3.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 1.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 16 basis points to 2.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.4% to $105.81 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Michael Msika, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Edward Bolingbroke.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself. –Leo Tolstoy, 1828-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com