Month: May 2024

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
Biographer’s Day: Celebrates the meeting of Boswell & Johnson.

May 16, 1770: Marie Antoinette, age 14, married the future King Louis XVI of France, who was 15. Go to article >>
May 16, 1929: The Oscars are awarded for the first time.

15 of the world’s most spectacular airport landings
These are some of the world’s best airplane approaches — and what side of the plane you should be sitting for them.

300 million
That’s how many images were combined to create the most detailed ever map of the human brain. The project, developed by researchers at Google and Harvard University, took over a decade to complete.

New Miss USA crowned amid ongoing turmoil at pageant
Amid a flurry of resignations, the new Miss USA, Savannah Gankiewicz, stepped up to be crowned on Wednesday in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Netflix releases ‘Bridgerton’ season 3 today
Dearest gentle reader, the third season of the beloved Netflix show “Bridgerton” releases today after a two-year wait. Here’s what you can expect.

Newfound ‘glitch’ in Einstein’s relativity could rewrite the rules of the universe, study suggests
Einstein’s theory of general relativity is our best description of the universe at large scales, but a new observation that reports a “glitch” in gravity around ancient structures could force it to be modified. Read More.

130,000-year-old Neanderthal-carved bear bone is symbolic art, study argues
A nearly 130,000-year-old bear bone was deliberately marked with cuts and might be one of the oldest art pieces in Eurasia crafted by the Neanderthals, researchers say. Read More.

CRISPR can treat common form of inherited blindness, early data hint
In a small trial, some people with inherited vision loss experienced improvements in their sight after being treated with CRISPR. Read More.

Orcas have attacked and sunk another boat in Europe — and experts warn there could be more attacks soon
A group of orcas known to attack boats in southwest Europe have sunk a 50-foot sailing yacht in the Strait of Gibraltar after ripping open its hull. It is the fifth time these killer whales have sent a ship to the seafloor in the last three years. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Zurich, Switzerland
An aerial photograph taken by the French land artist Guillaume Legros, AKA Saype, of his artwork Bright Dreams, in Irchelpark. Made with eco-friendly paint, the work shows a girl surrounded by several symbols evoking rescue at sea, in support of the humanitarian NGO SOS Mediterranee Switzerland
Photograph: Guillaume Legros AKA as Saype/AFP/Getty Images

Duilhac-sous-Peyrepertuse, France
Béatrice Fabre, a former climbing and ultra-trail athlete, on a zipline during the Olympic torch relay
Photograph: Valentine Chapuis/AFP/Getty Images

Palomino and the Cavinzas Islands, Peru
A team of biologists carry out monthly research, as part of efforts to protect marine fauna in the region. The islands, located off the port of Callao in Lima, have been awarded the prestigious ITB Earth Award
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 16^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39869.38	-38.62
		-0.10%
S&P 500	5297.10	-11.05
		-0.21%
NASDAQ	16698.32	-44.07
		-0.26%
TSX	22299.83	+15.07
		+0.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38920.26	+534.53
		+1.39%
HANG SENG	19376.53	+302.82
		+1.59%
SENSEX	73663.72	+676.69
		+0.93%
FTSE 100*	8438.65	-7.15
		-0.09%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.562	3.562
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.419	3.438
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3750	4.3400
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5122	4.5000

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7344	0.7353
US $	1.3617	1.3599

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4798	0.6758
US $	1.0867	0.9202

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2357.50	2354.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.63	78.63

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1949, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, originally founded in 1878, reopened for business, along with exchanges in Osaka and Nagoya, after the devastation of World War II.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 22,299.83 in Toronto.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest increase, rising 18.3%.
Today, 113 of 223 shares rose, while 106 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on May 10, 2024 and 19.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.01% compared with 9.45% in the previous session and the average of 8.80% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | 9.7342| 0.3| 13/13
Financials | 9.5090| 0.1| 14/13
Utilities | 3.7355| 0.4| 12/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4477| 0.4| 7/5
Real Estate | 1.4056| 0.3| 12/7
Health Care | 1.0501| 1.7| 2/2
Consumer Staples | -1.5944| -0.2| 6/5
Communication Services | -1.6600| -0.2| 2/3
Information Technology | -2.7977| -0.2| 7/3
Energy | -3.1927| -0.1| 19/21
Materials | -4.5891| -0.2| 19/31
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 8.8670| 1.2| -13.9| 6.2
RBC | 7.8730| 0.6| -57.9| 7.7
Canadian National | 6.7090| 1.0| 43.8| 3.5
Couche-Tard | -6.2340| -1.6| 19.5| -3.3
WSP Global | -10.1200| -5.3| 213.7| 10.9
Shopify | -10.5600| -1.6| -38.4| -23.7
US
By Rita Nazareth and Jessica Menton
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest stock market hovered near its all-time highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching the historic 40,000 mark on bets that rate cuts will keep powering Corporate America.
Following a series of small twists and turns, equities closed slightly lower as traders digested the gains of the past few weeks.
Just as the rest of the market, the oldest of Wall Street’s three main stock indexes had rallied on prospects of a resilient economy, ebbing inflation and robust earnings.
The last time the measure of blue chips broke a major milestone was in November 2020 — when it topped 30,000 — amid market-friendly developments that unleashed animal spirits even as the pandemic continued to rage.
This time around, the market is defying the old adage “sell in May and go away,” with equities on pace for their best month in 2024.
“Breaking the 40,000 barrier is a big psychological boost for the bulls as round numbers hold special significance in people’s hearts and minds,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Markets are now headed into ‘overvalued territory,’ so it’s prudent to dollar-cost average and be more discerning when investing in equities.”
The S&P 500 closed below 5,300.
Walmart Inc. surged on a bullish outlook as the big-box retailer attracts consumers looking for essentials and discounts.
GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. tumbled as the meme-stock frenzy faded.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.38%.
The dollar bounced back after dropping to a one-month low.
“40,000 is a great milestone, but at the end of the day, there isn’t much difference between 39,999 and 40,000,” said Ryan Detrick at Carson Group.
“Still, this is a great reminder of how far we’ve come. Think about how many people were talking about recessions and bear markets all of last year, now we are once again back to new highs.”
Can stocks keep going? “We think they can,” Detrick said. “Earnings continue to surprise to the upside, balance sheets for Corporate America are in great shape, while the consumer might have some cracks, but is still strong thanks to a very healthy employment backdrop.
Then consider lower rates are likely coming, thanks to inflation that should drastically improve in the second half of this year.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., a very short-term “breather” is quite likely right now and would be a healthy development after the rally to fresh records.
“There is a lot of leeway for the stock market if we do see a short-term pullback soon,” Maley said. “Put another way, the bulls are still fully in charge right now, and so it will take a significant reversal to stem the tide of the upside momentum.”
“The market is showing more and more confidence in a genuine soft landing or even no landing scenario where overall economic growth in the US continues to stay solid,” said Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“It makes sense that a broader group of companies, even those that are more cyclical in areas like industrials, materials and energy can do well.”
Analysts have ratcheted up earnings forecasts for the current quarter at the swiftest pace in two years, suggesting that the worst of the US profit slump may be firmly in the rear-view mirror, Bloomberg Intelligence data show.
To John Lynch at Comerica Wealth Management, the Dow hitting 40,000 is a testament to the powers of capital formation, innovation, profit growth, and economic resilience.
“The recent technical momentum and fundamental strengths, including earnings and interest rates, suggest further near-term gains,” he said. “Investors should be careful not to sprint on the victory lap, though, as a combination of geopolitics, valuation, and market interest rates may lead to a sudden directional shift.”
It’s also worth saying that while the Dow Average has evolved over time since it was first launched in 1896 by American journalist Charles Dow, it’s still a much narrower equity gauge than the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100.
The Dow is price-weighted, meaning that changes in the highest-priced stocks have greater impact on the index level than price changes in the lower-priced stocks.
The S&P 500, however, is market-cap-weighted.
Traders also kept a close eye on a drumbeat of Fed speakers, with three officials saying the central bank should keep borrowing costs high for longer as policymakers await more evidence inflation is easing, suggesting they’re not in a rush
to cut interest rates.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, speaking separately Thursday, argued it may take longer for inflation to reach their 2% target.
Meantime, Jamie Dimon said he’s still more worried about inflation than markets appear to be.
The JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief said significant price pressures are still influencing the US economy and may mean interest rates will be higher for longer than many investors are expecting.
Dimon cited costs linked to the green economy, re-militarization, infrastructure spending, trade disputes and large fiscal deficits.
“There are a lot of inflationary forces in front of us,” Dimon said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “The underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Amgen Inc. won US approval for a new drug to treat a particularly aggressive form of advanced lung cancer, providing a badly needed new option for patients when chemotherapy stops working.
* Under Armour Inc. will restructure its business amid a continued decline in revenue and make men’s apparel its highest priority as the company realigns itself under founder Kevin Plank.
* Tractor maker Deere & Co. reduced its profit outlook for the year as declining agriculture income pressured the world’s biggest farm machinery maker.
* Charles Schwab Corp. said Chief Financial Officer Peter Crawford is leaving after 22 years with the firm and will be replaced by Mike Verdeschi from Citigroup Inc. as part of a series of management changes.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is under investigation by the European Union over concerns its algorithms are illegally exploiting the weakness of children to get them addicted to Facebook and Instagram.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. said it can begin the process to add new planes and routes again after the Federal Aviation Administration indicated it would ease restrictions, a sign of progress after a series of safety issues led to a clampdown on the carrier’s operations.

Key events this week:
* China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Friday
* Eurozone CPI, Friday
* US Conf. Board leading index, Friday

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Nothing will work unless you do. –Maya Angelou, 1928-2014.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

May 15, 1940: The first McDonald’s fast food restaurant opens.
May 15, 1948:  Hours after declaring its independence, the new state of Israel was attacked by Transjordan, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Go to article >>
Henry James, writer, b. 1843.

Atoms squished closer together than ever before, revealing seemingly impossible quantum effects
Using a clever laser technique, scientists have squished pairs of atoms closer together than ever before, revealing some truly mind-boggling quantum effects. Read More.

Tree rings reveal summer 2023 was the hottest in 2 millennia
Tree rings suggest the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2023 was the hottest in 2,000 years, with temperatures exceeding those of the coldest summer in the same period by 7 degrees Fahrenheit (3.9 Celsius).  Read More.

Heavy metals in Beethoven’s hair may explain his deafness, study finds
A DNA analysis of Ludwig van Beethoven’s hair shows that he likely had lead poisoning. Read More.

Sun launches strongest solar flare of current cycle in monster X8.7-class eruption
The strongest solar flare in half a decade just launched off the sun from the same sunspot group that triggered dazzling auroras last weekend. But don’t expect northern lights this time around. Read More.

‘Quantum-inspired’ laser computing is more effective than both supercomputing and quantum computing, startup claims
The desktop-sized LPU100 eschews traditional electronics and qubits in favor of lasers, and it can reportedly perform complex AI calculations in nanoseconds. Read More.

Little dog wins big at Westminster Dog Show
This adorable fluff ball won best in show at the 2024 Westminster Dog Show.

King Charles’ first official portrait since coronation proves divisive
An artist’s depiction of the British monarch is proving to be quite divisive with its fiery red background.

Recap of Caitlin Clark’s first WNBA game
Caitlin Clark scored 20 points and committed 10 turnovers in her first WNBA game as the Indiana Fever lost to the Connecticut Sun.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
A model rehearses ahead of the Romance Was Born show during the Australian fashion week presented by Pandora at Carriageworks
Photograph: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images for AFW

Mojokerto, Indonesia
Doves fly past a giant Buddha statue at the Maha Vihara Mojopahit temple ahead of the Vesak festival, which commemorates the birth, enlightenment and death of Buddha
Photograph: Juni Kriswanto/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Ajmer, India
An owl perches on a branch of a tree on the outskirts of the city
Photograph: Abaca/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 15^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39908.00	+349.89
		+0.88%
S&P 500	5308.15	+61.47
		+1.17%
NASDAQ	16742.39	+231.21
		+1.40%
TSX	22284.76	+41.42
		+0.19%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38385.73	+29.67
		+0.08%
HANG SENG	19073.71	-41.35
		-0.22%
SENSEX	72987.03	-117.58
		-0.16%
FTSE 100*	8445.80	+17.67
		+0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.562	3.685
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.438	3.540
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3400	4.4394
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5000	4.5855

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7353	0.7324
US $	1.3599	1.3653

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4809	0.6753
US $	1.0889	0.9184

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2354.85	2343.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.63	78.02

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1911, the Supreme Court upheld the government’s decision to break up John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil on the grounds it was such a powerful monopoly that it violated the “rule of reason”.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 22,284.76 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.8%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 9.2%.
Today, 122 of 223 shares rose, while 94 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on May 10, 2024 and 19.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.45% compared with 9.49% in the previous session and the average of 8.77% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 19.5045| 0.3| 16/11
Information Technology | 16.2839| 1.0| 8/2
Utilities | 10.7646| 1.3| 11/4
Energy | 2.8302| 0.1| 21/19
Real Estate | 2.0792| 0.5| 11/8
Communication Services | 1.8706| 0.3| 2/3
Consumer Staples | 1.0964| 0.1| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary | 0.9441| 0.1| 6/7
Materials | 0.0517| 0.0| 32/16
Health Care | -1.0696| -1.7| 0/3
Industrials | -12.9438| -0.4| 12/14
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 11.6100| 0.8| -49.4| 7.1
Shopify | 6.6750| 1.0| -23.7| -22.5
Element Fleet | 4.4640| 7.4| 101.2| 10.7
First Quantum Minerals | -4.6090| -4.8| -7.4| 71.4
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -6.5850| -0.9| -5.3| 4.9
Canadian National | -7.6390| -1.1| 44.2| 2.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks to all-time highs as bond yields slumped after an inflation slowdown reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as early as September.
The S&P 500 notched its 23rd record in 2024 as data showed the consumer price index cooled for the first time in six months.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — sank to the lowest since January.
Treasuries climbed across the US curve.
Fed swaps priced in a faster pace of policy easing this year.
The dollar fell against all of its developed-market peers.
The latest inflation report may offer US policymakers hope that inflation is resuming its downward trend, which would help pave the way for rate cuts.
Separate retail sales data indicated some softening of the resilient consumer demand that’s been bolstering the economy.
“The market likes it,” said Gary Pzegeo at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The news on core inflation was better than expected.
Retail sales also showed some deceleration from the previously hot consumer sector. Taken together, this supports a Fed rate-cut in the fall.”
Most major groups in the S&P 500 advanced, with the gauge up 1.2% and topping 5,300. Nvidia Corp. led a rally in chipmakers.
Homebuilders jumped.
The meme rally that added about $11 billion in value to GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. fizzled out.
In late hours, Cisco Systems Inc. gave a bullish forecast.
Treasury 10-year yields sank 10 basis points to 4.34%. The
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hit a one-month low.
“Equity markets continue to show impressive resilience,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “The sustainability of the recent rally will rely on the belief that we are heading for a ‘soft landing’ — with easing inflation and moderate growth.”
The so-called core CPI — which excludes food and energy costs — climbed 0.3% from March, snapping a streak of three above-forecast readings which spurred concern that inflation was becoming entrenched.
The year-over-year measure cooled to the slowest pace in three years.
“We see the April print as consistent with a direction of travel for inflation dynamics that – in the context of moderation in the real economy – can yield a September cut followed by a second in December,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
To Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report, the data show there’s still work to do on inflation, but most importantly it reminds investors disinflation is still occurring — and that will support stocks.
When taken together with the latest reading on producer prices, the report also bodes well for the Fed’s preferred inflation metric — the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Sonu Varghese at Carson Group says the gauge will likely come in softer than in the first quarter.
To Jason Pride at Glenmede, the CPI data is “a step in the right direction,” but the Fed will need to see several of those steps strung together before getting too excited about imminent rate cuts.
The next CPI figures will be released exactly on the same day when the Fed meets to decide on interest rates — June 12.
The data should begin to shift the narrative back towards “when” the Fed will cut in 2024 rather than “if” they will cut, said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, the good news is that CPI hasn’t reaccelerated and the bad news is that consumers seem to be reducing their spending.
A number of weaker-than-estimated data points — from jobs to services and manufacturing — has recently sent the US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index to the lowest since January 2023.
The gauge measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations.
“Investors cheer rate cuts, neglect potential downturn,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management notes that cooling consumer spending is good, but if that transitions into a deeper slowdown, it could herald some economic problems that markets would not welcome.
“Both inflation and consumer spending appear to be cooling off, but at least so far, nothing in the data suggests that the economy is heading for a hard landing,” Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management noted. “We maintain our view that the Fed will start cutting rates in September, and this should lead to lower bond yields by year-end.”
Following the report, swap markets are now pricing about two quarter-point Fed cuts by the end of 2024.
Wall Street also pared its expectations for inflation.
The five-year breakeven rate, which tracks yield differences between Treasuries and inflation-linked bonds, tumbled to the lowest since February.
Though markets appeared relieved that the closely-watched inflation data did not show a larger than expected increase, the data is still worrying since the US will need a more substantial deceleration in the prices of consumer goods before it considers easing policy,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“The data does not change our expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts until it sees more sustained deceleration in inflation, which means in 2024 there’s a possibility that policy makers keep rates on hold,” she said.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari repeated the central bank likely needs to keep rates at the current level for “a while longer,” and questioned how much they’re restraining the US economy.
A team led by Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Gapen is retaining its call for the first cut to be in December.
“We think inflation data will have to slow much more or the labor market data needs to weaken to really bring a September cut into play,” they wrote.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently described the labor market as “very strong” with signs of gradual cooling and re-balancing, in part driven by an increase in labor supply from immigration as well as an easing in demand. Powell also described current policy as restrictive by “many, many measures” but noted time will tell whether rates are sufficiently high to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% goal.
“One month does not a trend make, but the trend of moderating inflation and slowing in consumer spending is favorable for risk assets,” said George Mateyo at Key Wealth.
“All eyes will shift next to the labor market, which will likely set the course for the Fed in the weeks ahead.”
Inflation will continue to cool in the second quarter as lower energy prices feed into both headline and core inflation, said Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors.
“We continue to believe that our 5,750 targets on the S&P will prove to be conservative as global rate cuts and AI propel global stock and bond markets higher after global cuts commence, with the ECB to act in early June,” he noted.
History reminds — but does not guarantee — that the S&P 500’s new high this year concludes the 62nd pullback (-5% to -9.9%) since World War II, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA.
That would open the door to a 5% to 10% advance over the coming three plus months — before the benchmark gauge endures another decline of more than 5%, he noted.
With the S&P 500 Index setting all-time highs, BMO Capital Markets is predicting even more gains through the end of 2024.
Brian Belski, the firm’s chief investment strategist, lifted his year-end forecast on the US equity benchmark to 5,600, the highest among Wall Street soothsayers tracked by Bloomberg.
The upgrade comes just two months shy of Belski reiterating his call for a drop to 5,100 on concern that the stock market had run up too far, too fast.
“It has become clear to us that we underestimated the strength of the market momentum,” he admitted Wednesday in a note to clients.

More Comments:
* Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial:
The Fed will certainly need a series of cooler reports for adjusting its rate easing timetable, but the CPI report suggests that the path towards 2% is a bit less bumpy.
* Cayla Seder at State Street:
This should be supportive of risk assets here. With that said, we’re not entirely out of the woods. We’ll likely need to see a continuation in data readings like today, but this could be the start of that trend.
* George Mateyo at Key Wealth:
One month does not a trend make, but the trend of moderating inflation and slowing in consumer spending is favorable for risk assets. All eyes will shift next to the labor market, which will likely set the course for the Fed in the weeks ahead.
* Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley:
No upside surprise this time. Today’s cooler CPI and retail sales data may make investors more hopeful the Fed will get in a cut or two before the clock runs out on 2024.
* Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital:
We’re still a far cry from the Fed’s desired 2% inflation level and the economy remains strong, so we’ll need a few more weak inflation prints to give the Fed the green light on lowering rates.
* Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab UK:
Although this will offer reassurance to markets after an unwelcome uptick in CPI figures last month, the figures are unlikely to prompt an imminent change in interest rates.
Patience has been the Fed’s core message lately. In the meantime, we watch and wait.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. faces possible criminal prosecution after the US Justice Department found the company violated a deferred- prosecution agreement tied to two fatal crashes half a decade ago, intensifying the crisis engulfing the embattled US planemaker.
* Walt Disney Co. Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger said marketing expenses at the flagship Disney+ streaming service are too high and will be cut as the company seeks to make a profit in that business by the end of its fiscal year.
* Netflix Inc. will air two National Football League games this Christmas Day, in the streaming TV giant’s latest push into live events.
* Shareholders in BHP Group Ltd. and takeover target Anglo American Plc expect the world’s largest miner to come back with a third and improved proposal before a regulatory deadline next week, even after the smaller company laid out a bold restructuring plan of its own.
* The chances of Deutsche Bank AG carrying out a second share buyback this year have become slimmer, the German lender told investors just before its annual general meeting.
* Burberry Group Plc warned of a challenging first half after the British maker of pricey trench coats reported tumbling sales on weak demand in China and the US.

Key events this week:
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Friday
* Eurozone CPI, Friday
* US Conf. Board leading index, Friday

–With assistance from Natalia Kniazhevich, Alexandra Semenova
and Augusta Saraiva.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Forget not that the earth delights to feel your bare feet and the winds long to play with your hair. -Kahlil Gibran, 1883-1931.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On May 14, 1948, the independent state of Israel was proclaimed as British rule in Palestine came to an end. Go to article >>.

Thomas Gainsborough, artist, b. 1727.dCate Blanchett, b. 1969

‘Extreme’ geomagnetic storm that painted Earth with auroras this weekend was the most powerful in 21 years
Between Friday and Sunday, people across the world were treated to stunning aurora displays as Earth’s magnetic field experienced its biggest disturbance since October 2003. Read More.

Sketchy stem-cell treatments in Mexico led to drug-resistant infections.
Three U.S. hospital patients contracted drug-resistant infections in Mexico in 2022 and were still being treated as of March 2024. Full Story: Live Science (5/14)

China creates its largest ever quantum computing chip — and it could be key to building the nation’s own ‘quantum cloud’
China’s supersized superconducting chip looks to match the performance of industry leaders like IBM and will be used to help scale up the performance of quantum computers globally. Read More.

Meghan visited Nigeria as a duchess and left an African princess
Learn about Harry and Meghan’s visit to Nigeria, where the Duchess of Sussex explored her Nigerian ancestry after discovering several years ago that she is 43% Nigerian through a genealogy test.

Scientists say they’ve discovered a ‘phonetic alphabet’ in whale calls.
Researchers have identified previously unknown complexity in whale communication with the help of artificial intelligence — although what the whales are saying remains a mystery to human ears.

2024 WNBA season: How to watch as a new era of women’s basketball dawns
Here’s everything you need to know about this year’s highly anticipated WNBA season, which begins today.

RIP David Sanborn
An influential saxophonist who found success across pop, R&B, jazz and more, died Sunday. He was 78. He was diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2018, but continued performing until recently. During the six-time Grammy Award winner’s career, he played with the Rolling Stones and toured with Stevie Wonder and David Bowie.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Java, Indonesia
Mount Merapi spews lava down its slopes
Photograph: Devi Rahman/AFP/Getty Images

London, England
Gucci transformed Tate Modern into a jungle for its cruise collection
Photograph: Graeme Robertson/The Guardian

​​​​​​​The village of Debrad in Slovakia
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty
Market Closes for May 14^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39558.11	+126.60
		+0.32%
S&P 500	5246.68	+25.26
		+0.48%
NASDAQ	16511.18	+122.94
		+0.75%
TSX	22243.34	-15.83
		-0.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38356.06	+176.60
		+0.46%
HANG SENG	19073.71	-41.35
		-0.22%
SENSEX	73104.61	+328.48
		+0.45%
FTSE 100*	8428.13	+13.14
		+0.16%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.685	3.683
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.540	3.533
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4394	4.4865
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5855	4.6289

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7324	0.7314
US $	1.3653	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4768	0.6771
US $	1.0818	0.9244

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2343.80	2343.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.02	78.26

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1997: Amazon went public on the Nasdaq, offering 3 million shares at an initial price of $18 per share.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 22,243.34 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
GFL Environmental Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.6%.
Today, 110 of 223 shares fell, while 107 rose; 6 of 11
sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on May 10, 2024 and 19% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 9.49% compared with 9.49% in the previous session and the average of 8.74% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -34.1606| -0.8| 16/22
Industrials | -17.9217| -0.6| 7/20
Information Technology | -15.9400| -1.0| 5/5
Utilities | -4.3427| -0.5| 2/13
Financials | -3.6676| -0.1| 8/18
Real Estate | -1.0362| -0.2| 5/14
Consumer Discretionary | 0.4370| 0.1| 5/8
Health Care | 0.8319| 1.3| 2/1
Communication Services | 4.7047| 0.7| 5/0
Consumer Staples | 6.0370| 0.7| 9/2
Materials | 49.2410| 1.8| 43/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -9.3790| -1.4| -14.9| -23.2
Constellation Software | -8.8010| -1.7| 15.3| 10.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.0200| -1.1| -46.0| 5.8
Teck Resources | 4.5560| 2.0| -12.1| 28.0
First Quantum Minerals | 7.7310| 8.7| -2.7| 80.0
Brookfield Corp | 8.0030| 1.3| -26.0| 14.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in big tech drove stocks close to their all-time highs as bond yields fell, with investors awaiting key inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
In the run-up to the consumer price index, Wall Street shrugged off a mixed reading on producer inflation and Jerome Powell’s signals that interest rates will be higher for longer.
The S&P 500 traded just a few points away from its record, with Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. leading gains in the “Magnificent Seven” cohort of mega caps. Meme-stock traders once again piled into GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.
Underlying US inflation probably moderated in April for the first time in six months, offering a ray of hope that price pressures will start to ease again.
Compared with April 2023, the core CPI is projected to rise 3.6%.
While the annual increase would be the smallest in three years, it would still be too high to warrant rate cuts.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed 49% of investors expect the market reaction to the CPI report to be “risk-on” —while only 27% said “risk-off.”
“Investors are expecting inflation to fall in April,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Even if the decline is slight, markets are looking for further evidence that the downward trend in inflation remains intact and, importantly, is not in the process of reversing course higher.”
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,247. The gauge would need to top the March 28 closing level of 5,254.35 to notch its 23^rd record in 2024.
Treasury 10-year yields fell four basis points to 4.44%.
US producer prices rose in April by more than projected, though key components that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge were more muted.
Several categories in the PPI report that are used to calculate the personal consumption expenditures price index eased.
“A more granular look suggests the components that feed into PCE inflation sent mixed signals,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “This means that the burden largely remains on CPI.”
The options market is betting that the S&P 500 will move 1% in either direction after Wednesday’s report on consumer prices, based on the price of that day’s at-the-money straddles, according to Andrew Tyler, head of US market Intelligence at
JPMorgan Chase’s trading desk.
“We believe that the stock market will move higher throughout the year on strong corporate profits and consumer spending, but volatility is likely to spike in the meantime, because the inflation data is going to keep the Fed on edge,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
The S&P 500 is unlikely to deliver any more gains from now through the end of the year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin.
The firm’s chief US equity strategist reiterated his 2024 price target on the benchmark of 5,200 in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.
“The probability of a multiple expansion, while possible, is less probable,” Kostin said.
Wagers on rate cuts have sent investor optimism to a two-and-a-half-year high, but stocks will suffer if evidence of “stagflation” materializes, according to Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett.
According to BofA’s global poll, a majority of fund managers see the Fed cutting rates in the second half of 2024.
That has lifted sentiment — derived from a combination of cash levels, equity allocation and economic growth expectations — to the highest since November 2021.
Within that mix, however, the outlook for economic growth and corporate profits has deteriorated for the first time this year, the survey showed.
A separate note showed BofA clients were net sellers of US equities last week, though outflows were chiefly led by institutional clients as hedge funds and mom-and-pop investors bought shares.
Meantime, Commodity Trading Advisors increased their exposure to stocks last week and are expected to continue buying this week regardless of the direction taken by the broader market, according to Goldman Sachs.
Equity derivatives and flows specialist Cullen Morgan estimates that CTAs are long $148 billion of global equities, the 92nd percentile, after buying the equivalent of $30 billion last week.

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. climbed after the Information reported the company is close to a deal for a $10 billion cloud contract with Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google said it’s rolling out a version of its ubiquitous search engine that includes responses written by artificial intelligence, in one of the most significant overhauls since the iconic gateway to the internet was founded decades ago.
* Boeing Co. delivered 24 commercial jets in April, its lowest monthly tally since February 2022, as the plane maker slowed production of its workhorse 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner widebody to focus on improving quality.
* Home Depot Inc.’s string of negative sales extended into a sixth straight quarter as the big-box retailer struggles to overcome a weak housing market and lower demand for big-ticket items.
* Tencent Holdings Ltd. reported a far better-than-projected 62% surge in earnings while rival Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s profit plunged, highlighting the growing divergence between China’s twin internet powerhouses during a rocky post-Covid recovery.
* Comcast Corp. will offer customers a streaming bundle that includes Apple TV+, Netflix and its own Peacock service as it tries to reduce subscriber churn, Chief Executive Officer Brian Roberts said Tuesday at an investor conference.
* Hydrogen producer Plug Power Inc. surged after the Biden administration offered the US company a conditional commitment for $1.66 billion in loan guarantees to build up to six facilities.
* Verizon Communications Inc. is interested in buying back US Cellular Corp.’s stake in its Los Angeles business if the companies can agree on a reasonable price, the chief of Verizon’s consumer division said.

Key events this week:
* China rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, GDP, Wednesday
* US CPI, retail sales, business inventories, empire manufacturing, Wednesday
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Wednesday
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Friday
* Eurozone CPI, Friday
* US Conf. Board leading index, Friday

–With assistance from Carly Wanna, Julien Ponthus and Sagarika
Jaisinghani.

Have  a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The bitterest tears shed over graves are for words left unsaid and deeds left undone. –Harriet Beecher Stowe, 1811-1896.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

May 13, 1950: The first Formula One World Championship season kicks off.
May 13, 2002: Jimmy Carter became the first present or former U.S. president to visit Cuba since Fidel Castro seized power in 1959. Go to article >>

Stevie Wonder, b.1950.

“Frasier,” the television sitcom set in Seattle but filmed in Los Angeles, in 2004 airs its last show after an 11-year run. The show debuts in 1993, just as Seattle is beginning to receive notoriety for grunge music, its coffee, and its dot-com business boom. Kelsey Grammer (Frasier) portrays a call-in psychiatrist at a fictitious radio station. The view from Frasier’s ritzy condo looks over a compressed downtown with an impossible view of the Space Needle. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

Papua New Guineans, genetically isolated for 50,000 years, carry Denisovan genes that help their immune system, study suggests
Genes inherited from Denisovans, extinct human relatives, may help Papua New Guineans in the lowlands fight off infection, while mutations to red blood cells may help highlanders live at altitude. Read More.

Stone with 1,600-year-old Irish inscription found in English garden
Investigations show the stone is inscribed with a message in ogham, an Irish alphabet used from the fourth century A.D.. Read More.

Earth from space: Majestic ‘yin-yang’ crater sits atop a dormant volcano in Turkey
The massive caldera of Turkey’s Mount Nemrut volcano is split in half, with one side made of solidified lava flows and the other half a deep crater lake. Covered in snow, the summit scene looks like the yin-yang symbol when viewed from above. Read More.

James Webb telescope detects 1-of-a-kind atmosphere around ‘Hell Planet’ in distant star system
Using the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists have discovered evidence of a carbon-rich atmosphere around the hellish world 55 Cancri e. This marks the best evidence yet of an atmosphere around a rocky exoplanet.
Read More.

Meta just stuck its AI somewhere you didn’t expect it — a pair of Ray-Ban smart glasses
Ray-Ban smart glasses will now use Meta AI virtual assistant software so that wearers can speak with their smart glasses and ask questions about what they’re looking at. Read More.

The iconic Porsche 911 is going hybrid
A hybrid model of Porsche’s signature model, with its gas engine assisted by at least one battery-powered electric motor, will officially be revealed in an online event later this month.

Hear Jerry Seinfeld’s advice to 2024 grads
The comedian was Duke University’s 2024 commencement speaker, offering graduates some unconventional advice.

Auroras light the sky during rare solar storm
See the dazzling Auroras created around the globe by a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the sun.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Soberania national park, Panama
A keel-billed toucan (Ramphastos sulfuratus) pictured on Global Big Day 2024, a worldwide birdwatching event
Photograph: Bienvenido Velasco/EPA

I think I saw a mouse
Photograph: Debby Thomas/Comedy Pet Awards 2024

​​​​​​​Las Vegas, Nevada
The aurora borealis lights up the night sky over the desert
Photograph: David Becker/Zuma Press/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 13^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39431.51	-81.33
		-0.21%
S&P 500	5221.42	-1.26
		-0.02%
NASDAQ	16388.24	+47.37
		+0.29%
TSX	22259.17	-49.76
		-0.22%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38179.46	-49.65
		-0.13%
HANG SENG	19115.06	+151.38
		+0.80%
SENSEX	72776.13	+111
		+0.15%
FTSE 100*	8414.99	-18.77
		-0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.683	3.696
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.533	3.552
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4865	4.4963
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6289	4.6386

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7318
US $	1.3672	1.3665

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4749	0.6780
US $	1.0787	0.9270

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2343.80	2372.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.26	79.26

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1999, Barbie went high-tech in one of the most disastrous deals in modern history. Toy company Mattel acquired The Learning Co., a maker of educational software, for $3.51 billion. After 16 months and $342 million in restructuring charges, Mattel sold it on to Gores Technology Group for no cash up front, assumption of debt and a percentage of future profits, bringing the total loss to about $4 billion.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.2%, or 49.76 to 22,259.17 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.8%.
Torex Gold Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 5.0%.
Today, 123 of 223 shares fell, while 96 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on May 10, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is unchanged in the past 5 days and rose 1.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.49% compared with 9.59% in the previous session and the average of 8.70% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -23.1009| -0.8| 10/39
Industrials | -13.3472| -0.4| 13/13
Energy | -12.3356| -0.3| 21/20
Information Technology | -7.7606| -0.5| 4/6
Utilities | -3.5162| -0.4| 7/7
Consumer Staples | -1.6328| -0.2| 6/5
Real Estate | -0.6219| -0.1| 12/8
Health Care | 0.7247| 1.2| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | 1.6870| 0.2| 8/5
Communication Services | 2.8629| 0.4| 3/1
Financials | 7.2901| 0.1| 10/17
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Cameco | -8.0180| -3.8| 14.2| 17.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -7.6290| -1.0| -49.0| 7.0
Manulife Financial | -5.8110| -1.3| 57.1| 20.0
Sun Life Financial | 3.1080| 1.1| 77.0| 0.8
Dollarama | 4.0720| 1.8| -20.2| 26.1
RBC | 18.7000| 1.4| 2.7| 6.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off the week on a cautious note, with traders positioning for key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and global financial markets.
Stocks, bonds and the dollar saw small moves just a few days ahead of the key consumer price index.
The gauge is projected to show moderation while still remaining too high to warrant rate cuts. On Monday, a Fed Bank of New York survey highlighted an increase in expectations for inflation.
Some prominent trading desks are warning that investors should gear up for a potential break in the calm that’s come over stocks.
The options market is betting the S&P 500 will move 1% in either direction after Wednesday’s CPI, according to Andrew Tyler at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“The key risk is a hotter CPI print,” Tyler said. “But upcoming macro data creates a two-tailed risk — with one tied to stronger-than-expected growth fueling inflation concerns and the other being weaker growth fueling either recession or ‘stagflation’ concerns.”
US stocks and bonds are facing upside risk this week as traders keep building long positions, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner.
Commodity trading advisors’ equity and fixed-income demand is notable, with a so-called “green sweep” showing up in most of Goldman’s models.
This means investors  will keep piling in even if the market goes down.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,220. Heavily shorted companies got a lift as GameStop Corp. soared after a cryptic X post from Keith Gill, known as “Roaring Kitty,” who gained notoriety during the 2021 meme-stock frenzy.
US 10-year yields fell one basis point to 4.48%.
The all-important inflation data arrive just as a three-week rally had the S&P 500 knocking on the door of its record highs, noted Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“An extension of the rally could depend on whether investors still feel positive about rate cuts after this week’s numbers.”
Before Wednesday’s CPI, economists will parse producer prices data on Tuesday to assess the impact of categories that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak Tuesday.
“Squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat,” said Ohsung Kwon at Bank of America Corp.
“With further hikes ruled out, we think equities may be able to tolerate higher inflation. An in-line print should also be net positive, removing the inflation overhang at least in the near term.”
Stalled-out progress on inflation is probably going to trigger a decline in US equities in the coming months, according to Stifel Nicolaus & Co.’s Barry Bannister.
The S&P 500 will likely drop roughly 10% in the second or third quarter to around 4,750, he noted.
A “merely in-line” US inflation report this week “would likely be enough for further risk-asset gains,” according to HSBC strategists led by Duncan Toms.
The stock market “setup” has left it at a critical juncture, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
The fact that equities saw a material decline in April, followed by a nice bounce leaves them vulnerable to a “double top” — which is one of the most-bearish signals in technical analysis.
“If this week’s inflation data creates a substantial reversal, it’s going to be a very negative development,” Maley said. “If, however, this week’s data creates a further rally — one that pushes the major indices meaningfully above their 2024 highs — it’s going to be extremely bullish.”
If recent hot prints prove to be a blip in a disinflationary process, one or two cuts starting in the fall may be reasonable, according to Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.  
But that timeline may undergo further revisions if inflation stays sticky, they say.
It’s difficult to justify buying stocks now due to elevated interest rates, weakening growth and meager potential returns, according to JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic.
“We don’t see enough of a return to warrant taking on equity risk at this juncture,” he noted.
“The macro outlook is uncertain and for equities, we are entering into a seasonally tricky time of the year, with a challenging combination of inflation at risk of staying too high, profit margin pressures, and elevated positioning.”
Lofty US equity valuations suggest investors have already priced in a lot of stock market enthusiasm, but that doesn’t mean they should start selling, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The S&P 500 already is higher than Goldman’s year-end target of 5,200, but the fundamental backdrop for share prices remains “very good,” Ben Snider, senior strategist on Goldman’s US portfolio strategy team, said in an interview. He’s optimistic about stocks down the road because of strong earnings from US companies and confidence in the path of disinflation.
Investors ready to trim or ditch their stock exposure because they are worried the S&P 500 is losing steam after a double-digit run up since October should look to history for reasons to stay committed to their US equity allocations.
Since the 1930s, missing out on the 10 best days per decade for the benchmark would have yielded a 66% gain — a fraction of the roughly 23,000% return staying invested through those days would have generated, according to data from Bank of America Corp.
More importantly, those best days have come after the worst days for stocks, when selling was likely most tempting, the bank’s analysis showed.
In a week that also sees the release of retail sales, guidance from giants Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. will provide some insight into consumer sentiment amid signs of rising joblessness.
Historically, consumer confidence has moved inversely to the two-year/10-year US Treasury yield spread, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“With curves likely to steepen when rate cuts start, which we forecast by September, it’s unclear whether consumers will view good news as good news or whether cuts will come too late — when consumer moods have worsened as excess savings have been depleted and when a recoupling of the relationship indicates recession, not a soft landing,” she noted.
Still, analysts are ratcheting up earnings forecasts for the current quarter at the swiftest pace in two years, suggesting that the worst of Corporate America’s profit slump may be firmly in the rear-view mirror.
With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for this earnings season, upbeat first-quarter results have pushed Wall Street to boost profit projections for the three months through June, Bloomberg Intelligence data show.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has closed in on an agreement with OpenAI to use the startup’s technology on the iPhone, part of a broader push to bring artificial intelligence features to its devices, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Intel Corp. is in advanced talks with Apollo Global Management over a deal that would have the investment firm providing more than $11 billion in funding for a chip manufacturing plant in Ireland, the Wall Street Journal said.
* Johnson & Johnson sold $4 billion of bonds to help finance its $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical Inc., the latest blue-chip firm to seize on thriving debt markets to fund purchases.
* Nasdaq Inc. is considering a sale of Solovis, a provider of portfolio-management software and services, as the exchange operator seeks to slim down following its largest-ever acquisition, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is reaching out to potential buyers of the £7 billion ($8.8 billion) Boots drugstore chain in the UK, according to people familiar with the matter.
* UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said that he intends to stay at the helm of the Swiss bank until the task of absorbing Credit Suisse is complete, meaning his second stint leading the global wealth manager could stretch to almost four years.
* Anglo American Plc rejected a second approach from BHP Group that valued the miner at $43 billion, as pressure builds on the 107-year old company to lay out a compelling vision to survive on its own.

Key events this week:
* Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations, Tuesday
* Bank of England Economist Huw Pill speaks, Tuesday
* US PPI, Tuesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot speak, Tuesday
* China rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, GDP, Wednesday
* US CPI, retail sales, business inventories, empire manufacturing, Wednesday
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Wednesday
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Friday
* Eurozone CPI, Friday
* US Conf. Board leading index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0789
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2555
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 156.22 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $63,160.48
* Ether rose 1.1% to $2,955.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $79.22 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1% to $2,337.33 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Alexandra Semenova, Natalia Kniazhevich, Vince Golle and Craig Stirling.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple – that’s creativity. –Charles Mingus, 1922-1979.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 10, 1877: US President Rutherford B. Hayes has 1st White House telephone installed, in the telegraph room.

NASA details plan to build a levitating robot train on the moon
NASA’s plan to build a train track on the moon is part of the agency’s Innovative Advanced Concepts program, which aims to develop “science fiction-like” projects for future space exploration. Read more.

Cosmic ‘superbubbles’ might be throwing entire galaxies into chaos, theoretical study hints
When there are multiple supernovas in the same galaxy, they can leave enormous voids that tamper with the balance between dark matter and regular matter. Over time, this can throw entire galaxies into chaos.

Collapse of Earth’s magnetic field may have fueled evolution of life 600 million years ago
The planet’s magnetic field may have collapsed around 600 million years ago, enabling a major oxygenation event and perhaps supercharging evolution. Read more.

New invention transforms any smartphone or TV display into a holographic projector
Scientists have developed a method for creating 3D holograms using “incoherent light” emitted from mobile devices — turning iPhone 14 Pro into a projector. Read more.

Elephants use ear flaps, rumbles, trunk reaches and other forms of communication to greet peers, new research suggests. Read more.

Lab-made universal blood could revolutionize transfusions. Scientists just got one step closer to making it.
Enzymes produced by gut bacteria can remove long sugar chains in type A and B blood, leading to improved compatibility with type O. Using gut bacteria, scientists have come one step closer to “universal” donor blood, where any blood type can donate to any other.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dunhuang, China
Tourists riding camels visit Mingsha Mountain And Crescent Spring during the May Day holiday in Dunhuang
Photograph: Zhang Xiaoliang/VCG/Getty Images

Tandem surfing … a pair of bottlenose dolphins jump out of the sea at New Quay Bay in west Wales, UK.
Photograph: Sarah Michelle Wyer/pictureexclusive.com

​​​​​​​Marseille, France
Fireworks go off after the French 19th-century three-masted barque Belem arrived at the Vieux-Port during the Olympic Flame ceremony ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games in Marseille
Photograph: Christophe Simon/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 10^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39512.84	+125.08
		+0.32%
S&P 500	5222.68	+8.60
		+0.16%
NASDAQ	16340.87	-5.39
		-0.03%
TSX	22308.93	-66.90
		-0.30%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38229.11	+155.13
		+0.41%
HANG SENG	18963.68	+425.87
		+2.30%
SENSEX	72664.47	+260.30
		+0.36%
FTSE 100*	8433.76	+52.41
		+0.63%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.696	3.626
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.552	3.506
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4963	4.4570
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6386	4.6105

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7318	0.7312
US $	1.3665	1.3676

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4730	0.6789
US $	1.0779	0.9277

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2372.45	2309.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.26	78.99

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1965, a young, crew-cut Warren Buffett took control of the decrepit textile maker Berkshire Hathaway, whose shares traded at $18 each. Today Berkshire’s Class A shares trade at $615,835.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 22,308.93 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.3% on April 30 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.6%.
CI Financial Corp. had the largest drop, falling 12.1%.
Today, 115 of 223 shares fell, while 104 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.6%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Dec. 22
* The index advanced 8.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 19.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.55t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.59% compared with 9.54% in the previous session and the average of 8.55% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -52.9088| -3.1| 3/6
Energy | -26.3706| -0.6| 12/29
Financials | -1.5712| 0.0| 15/12
Communication Services | -1.4580| -0.2| 4/1
Real Estate | -1.0094| -0.2| 8/12
Materials | -0.9185| 0.0| 24/25
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3962| -0.1| 5/8
Health Care | -0.2074| -0.3| 1/3
Utilities | 2.1359| 0.2| 9/5
Industrials | 7.0796| 0.2| 14/12
Consumer Staples | 8.7281| 1.0| 9/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -40.6400| -5.6| 115.9| -21.9
Sun Life Financial | -20.1200| -6.7| 209.3| -0.3
Constellation Software | -12.4900| -2.4| 47.6| 13.7
Manulife Financial | 5.1800| 1.2| 61.2| 21.6
TD Bank | 7.6970| 0.8| -10.4| -9.6
Enbridge | 7.8800| 1.0| 9.4| 8.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market struggled to gain much traction after data pointed to an economy that is slowing amid stubborn inflation, posing a challenge to the outlook of Federal Reserve policy.
Equities wavered and bond yields rose following a report that showed US consumer sentiment declined to a six-month low as short-term inflation expectations picked up.
While a slowdown in key sectors has encouraged bets on Fed rate cuts, a chorus of officials continued to echo the higher-for-longer mantra as they try to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
“The Fed is walking a tightrope as they balance both mandates of price stability and growth,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “Although it’s not our base case, we do see rising risks of ‘stagflation’ — a concern markets will have to deal with.”
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,220, while notching its third straight week of gains — the longest winning run since February.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for an eighth straight session.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced five basis points to 4.50%.
Fed swaps showed traders have fully priced in a rate cut by November, and a second reduction by the January meeting.
Although inflation data has overshadowed most other reports this year, it’s important to remember that consumer spending is the main pillar that has been holding up the economy, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Today’s lower-than-expected consumer sentiment numbers are a warning sign that the consumer shouldn’t be taken for granted,” he noted. “In addition, inflation expectations have been rising as well — which is a double whammy for the Fed.”
Zaccarelli also noted that if spending slows down and inflation increases, “we’ll get the opposite of the Goldilocks scenario that many were hoping for.”
In such case, the Fed would be in “an especially difficult position of choosing between accommodating a slowing economy and fighting increasing inflation expectations,” he concluded.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan noted it’s still too early to think about lowering borrowing costs, while Governor Michelle Bowman said she doesn’t expect it will be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024.
Meantime, Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he doesn’t think inflation is stuck above the target despite recent data showing price pressures picked up at the start of the year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking after the central bank’s April 30-May 1 meeting, said policymakers would likely keep rates high for some time. He also said he didn’t see “stagflation” regarding growth or inflation.
A litany of weaker-than-estimated data points — from jobs to services and manufacturing — has sent the US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index to the lowest since January 2023.
The gauge measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations.
“Economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter and will likely be slow in the rest of 2024, too,” said Bill Adams at Comerica Bank. “Financial markets still expect the Fed to start cutting rates by year-end, with two quarter-percentage- point cuts more likely than one.”
Among the several aspects of Friday’s consumer sentiment report, Peter Boockvar also cited the fact that the higher-for-longer interest rate situation has led to a plunge in buying conditions for big-ticket items.
“I said a few years ago when the Fed was aggressively raising interest rates that I was more worried about a death by a thousand cuts economic response, rather than a big immediate economic event/decline, and I’m sticking to that,” said the author of The Boock Report.
“This sure feels much more like a 1.5% type economy rather than the 3%-ish that some think we’re still in,” he added.
To Don Rissmiller at Strategas, some central banks like the Fed have taken a more hawkish tone as both growth and inflation data have been choppy.
“Any confirmation of a wobble in the US labor market will likely tip the scale to rate cuts in short order,” he noted. “We would expect to hear more talk of the Fed’s dual mandate to justify such a pivot.”
Looking ahead, traders will be focused on Powell’s remarks during an event on Tuesday and a deluge of economic reports — with the highlight being the consumer price index on Wednesday.
“We see the balance of risks around the CPI print tilted slightly bullish rates,” said Bank of America Corp. strategists including Mark Cabana.
Real rates look attractive as carry remains positive through October, but choppy markets may keep investors on the sidelines, according to Gennadiy Goldberg and Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
“We expect gradually moderating growth and inflation data to continue pushing rates lower in late-2024 as we look for the Fed to start easing in September,” they noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* McDonald’s Corp. is looking to launch a $5 meal deal in the US that the burger chain is betting can lure penny-pinching consumers back in.
* Target Corp. won’t sell LGBTQ-themed merchandise in some stores during Pride Month in June, after a backlash dented revenue last year.
* Novavax Inc. signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot.
* US regulators’ decision on whether to approve Moderna Inc.’s vaccine for RSV has been delayed due to “administrative constraints” at the Food and Drug Administration, as the company works to get its second product to market.
* 3M Co. was raised to buy at HSBC, which noted the company’s earnings showed nascent signs of an “inflection in growth and margin gains from restructuring” at the manufacturing giant.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. saw April sales jump 60% as sustained artificial-intelligence demand was helped by the beginnings of a recovery in consumer electronics.
* Sweetgreen Inc.’s shares surged after the salad chain increased its annual sales projection and showed improved profitability as it seeks to expand its footprint.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0772
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2527
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 155.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.3% to $60,598.01
* Ether fell 4.1% to $2,898.26
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $78.33 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,363.83 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“ Life is the art of drawing without an eraser.”– John W Gardner

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 9, 1502: Christopher Columbus leaves Cádiz, Spain, on his fourth and final trip to the New World

65 million-year-old cow relative looked like a chinchilla and weighed only a pound
Militocodon lydae, a mammal that looked like a chinchilla but is more closely related cows, roamed what is now Colorado after the nonavian dinosaurs went extinct.

Remains of vast 7,000-year-old farming settlement found in a ‘huge void’ in Serbia
Archaeologists discovered a previously unknown Neolithic settlement in Serbia and then fully mapped the “exceptional” site.

James Webb telescope measures the starlight around the universe’s biggest, oldest black holes for 1st time ever
Astronomers using the James Webb Space Telescope have separated the light of a quasar from the light of its surrounding stars, offering unprecedented insight into how the universe’s oldest black holes grew.

New mRNA vaccine for deadly brain cancer triggers a strong immune response
COVID-19 vaccine development paves way to a new class of cancer immunotherapy. For the first time, scientists have tested a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine in a patient with a deadly form of brain cancer — and it triggered a strong immune response.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Trat, Thailand
Pink skunk clownfish hide among the pale white stinging tentacles of a bleached sea anemone in a reef affected by coral bleaching from high water temperature. Extreme heat has driven Thai sea temperatures to record highs, causing severe damage to marine ecosystems
Photograph: Sirachai Arunrugstichai/Getty Images

Moscow, Russia
Service members march in columns past an honour guard during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 79th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war
Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

​​​​​​​Singapore
A visitor takes a photo of an art installation titled Moss wall by Icelandic-Danish artist Olafur Eliasson during a preview of his exhibition, Olafur Eliasson: Your curious journey, at the Singapore Art Museum
Photograph: How Hwee Young/EPA
Market Closes for May 9^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39387.76	+331.37
		+0.85%
S&P 500	5214.08	+26.41
		+0.51%
NASDAQ	16346.27	+43.51
		+0.27%
TSX	22375.83	+116.67
		+0.52%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38073.98	-128.39
		-0.34%
HANG SENG	18537.81	+223.95
		+1.22%
SENSEX	72404.17	-1062.22
		-1.45%
FTSE 100*	8381.35	+27.30
		+0.33%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.626	3.630
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.506	3.512
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4570	4.4937
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6105	4.6390

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7312	0.7286
US $	1.3676	1.3725

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4746	0.6782
US $	1.0782	0.9275

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2309.05	2319.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.99	78.99

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, the forerunner of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was established, just in time to suffer through the worst depression in modern history.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 22,375.83 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Manulife Financial Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.7%.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 11.1%.
Today, 129 of 223 shares rose, while 91 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 17
* The index advanced 8.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 19.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.5% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.54% compared with 9.45% in the previous session and the average of 8.45% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 57.6555| 2.1| 38/12
Financials | 38.5968| 0.6| 14/12
Energy | 25.5716| 0.6| 25/16
Utilities | 5.1190| 0.6| 11/4
Industrials | 2.5424| 0.1| 13/13
Real Estate | 2.1606| 0.5| 11/9
Communication Services | 1.5142| 0.2| 4/1
Health Care | -0.2411| -0.4| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.4676| -0.3| 6/5
Consumer Discretionary | -2.4683| -0.3| 3/10
Information Technology | -11.3181| -0.6| 3/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Manulife Financial | 20.0900| 4.7| 37.1| 20.2
Nutrien | 11.9000| 4.5| 10.6| 6.6
Suncor Energy | 11.3700| 2.4| 124.8| 29.4
CGI Inc | -3.8110| -1.9| 7.5| -1.9
Intact Financial | -4.7520| -1.6| 1.8| 12.2
Shopify | -6.5060| -0.9| 10.1| -17.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market climbed to its highest level since early April, extending a rebound that’s been fueled by speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year.
Equities rose as higher-than-estimated jobless claims reinforced bets on US policy easing — with the market extending gains after a $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds saw good demand.
The S&P 500 topped 5,200 amid below-average volume. The advance in stocks has also been attributed to Commodity Trading Advisors — who surf momentum — being modeled to buy shares this week.
“Our sense is that the rebound has been unloved, largely because economic surprises have turned modestly negative, and we believe this is likely to lead to additional near-term upside,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research. “Looking out to year end,
we expect to remain constructive on the outlook.”
To Doug Ramsey at Leuthold, another 10% gain in the S&P 500 isn’t out of the question, at least statistically.
He analyzed 80 years of data on bull-market rallies, focusing on those that happened when unemployment was this low and the economic cycle this mature.
If the current rally meets the prior records for length and height, the S&P 500 would end the year at 5,705.
The S&P 500 traded less than 1% away from its all-time high.
Apple Inc. climbed as Bloomberg News reported the company will deliver some of its upcoming artificial-intelligence features this year via data centers equipped with its own in-house processors.
Nvidia Corp. led losses in chipmakers.
Treasury 10-year yields declined four basis points to 4.46%.
The pound rose, despite growing confidence the Bank of England can soon begin loosening policy.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows investors are practically split on the S&P 500’s next 10% move — with 52% betting the benchmark gauge will go higher and 48% seeing a down move.
“To the extent that conviction in the next big move in asset prices remains mixed, expect correlations to remain low and stock picking and micro themes to dominate,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V.
When it comes to the Treasury market, 68% of those surveyed by the firm believe the 10-year yield is going to 4% next — while only 32% said 5%.
Senyek at Wolfe Research noted that he’d remain constructive in equities unless the economy shows signs of spilling into recession, or inflation is sticky enough that the market starts to price in a Fed hike.
“Neither are part of our base case!” he said.
Initial applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level since August, topping estimates.
US policymakers are keeping a close eye on labor demand and wage growth as they debate when it might be appropriate to ease policy.
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said rates are currently restraining the economy, but it may take “more time” to return inflation to their goal.
“Time will tell whether it’s a one-off or part of a genuine cooldown in the labor market,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Investors may have adjusted to the idea of the Fed waiting until September to cut interest rates, but that doesn’t mean they’re comfortable waiting indefinitely.”
Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray said economic growth will slow as stubborn inflation weighs on the Fed’s ability to begin lowering borrowing costs.
“We see a deceleration of growth,” Gray said at the Macquarie Australia Conference in Sydney on Thursday.
“Central banks will be slow on the cutting of rates, because they don’t want to see a rise of inflation,” he said. “The Fed will be patient, they’ll have the opportunity to cut once this year,” he added.
If the economy is slowing, unemployment rising, inflation receding, and the Fed is expected to cut rates, there will be plenty of buyers for US Treasury notes and bonds, according to Joe Kalish at Ned Davis Research.
“But make no mistake. When conditions change, prices can change too – and quickly!”
Kalish noted that the buyers of bonds are now different from the buyers of bonds during the quantitative-easing era.
Currently, buyers are price-sensitive, and the burden has mostly fallen on households, he added.
“There will always be a price to clear the market,” he noted. “So now we are just haggling over the price.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Securities and Exchange Commission is scrutinizing statements that Boeing Co. made about its safety practices following a near-tragic January accident aboard one of its 737 Max 9 planes.
* United States Cellular Corp. jumped after a Wall Street Journal report that T-Mobile US Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. are nearing separate deals to buy parts of the telecommunications company.
* Equinix Inc., a real estate investment trust that owns data centers, surged after saying it has “substantially” wrapped up an internal investigation of its accounting, which found that its financial reporting has been accurate.
* Arm Holdings Plc gave a lukewarm revenue forecast for the fiscal year, raising concerns that the tech industry’s artificial intelligence spending spree is slowing.
* Gaming giant Roblox Corp. reported a forecast for bookings that fell short of analysts’ estimates, the latest sign of widespread struggles in the video-game industry.
* Google parent Alphabet Inc. has been progressing in talks to acquire marketing software provider HubSpot Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Airbnb Inc. sank after the home-rental company gave lackluster guidance for a second straight quarter, indicating that growth in travel spending will slow ahead of the peak summer season.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Zaslav has ordered his lieutenants to find additional opportunities for cost-cutting in order to hit financial targets for the next couple years, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Key events this week:
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0782
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2523
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 155.44 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $62,439.08
* Ether rose 2.4% to $3,020.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $79.61 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.5% to $2,343.95 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful evening everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“ Genius is eternal patience.”– Michelangelo Di Lodovico Buonarroti Simoni

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: VE Day; Victory in Europe Day.
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Victory in Europe Day is the day celebrating the formal acceptance by the Allies of World War II of Germany’s unconditional surrender of its armed forces on Tuesday, 8 May 1945; it marked the official end of World War II in Europe in the Eastern Front, Read More.
May 8, 1846: First major battle of the Mexican–American War fought at Palo Alto, Texas
May 8, 1886 Jacob’s Pharmacy in Atlanta sells the first Coca-Cola (contained cocaine)
May 8, 1899 Ernest Rutherford publishes his discovery of two different kinds of radiation (Alpha and Beta Particles)

Epic NASA video takes you to the heart of a black hole — and destroys you in seconds
What would it be like to fall past the event horizon of a black hole? A new NASA simulation provides a peek into the bizarre physics of spaghettification.

Japan captures 1st image of space debris from orbit, and it’s spookily stunning
A new Japanese mission to photograph space junk from orbit marks a milestone in orbital debris cleanup efforts.

2,500-year-old Illyrian helmet found in burial mound likely caused ‘awe in the enemy’
Archaeologists excavating a burial mound in Croatia have discovered a 2,500-year-old Illyrian helmet that may have been a votive offering. Read More.

Hoard of 17th-century coins hidden during English Civil War unearthed during kitchen renovation
During a kitchen renovation, a family in England unexpectedly discovered a hoard of coins that was likely buried for safekeeping during the first English Civil War. Read More.

‘A dream come true’: Nuclear clock breakthrough could revolutionize study of the universe’s fundamental forces
By nudging a thorium-229 nucleus into a higher energy state, physicists have made it possible to develop a nuclear clock that could probe the most fundamental forces in physics. However, there is still a long way to go. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Marseille, France
People on boats accompany the Belem, a three-masted sailing ship, as it arrives into the Old Port carrying the Olympic flame, for the Paris Olympics 2024
Photograph: Benoît Tessier/Reuters

Qiqihar, China
A red-crowned crane guards its chick and egg at Zhalong national nature reserve. The reserve is the world’s largest habitat and reproduction base for the birds with more than 380 bred in captivity being released into the wild
Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock

Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil
Tourists view Iguazú Falls, which are currently at full water capacity due to rainfall
Photograph: Kiko Sierich/Reuters
Market Closes for May 8^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39056.39	+172.13
		+0.44%
S&P 500	5187.67	-0.03
		—
NASDAQ	16302.76	-29.80
		-0.18%
TSX	22259.16	-31.47
		-0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38202.37	-632.73
		-1.63%
HANG SENG	18313.86	-165.51
		-0.90%
SENSEX	73466.39	-45.46
		-0.06%
FTSE 100*	8354.05	+40.38
		+0.49%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.630	3.584
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.512	3.470
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4937	4.4570
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6390	4.5974

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7286	0.7281
US $	1.3725	1.3734

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4753	0.6778
US $	1.0750	0.9302

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2319.60	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.99	78.48

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, John Clifton Bogle, future founder of the Vanguard Group of Investment Cos., is born in Montclair, N.J., to homemaker Josephine Hipkins Bogle and William Yates Bogle, Jr., a manufacturing executive and former aviator.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 22,259.16 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.3% on April 30 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 2 of 11 sectors lost; 74 of 223 shares fell, while 146 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 18.5%.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.4% in the past 5 days and was unchanged in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.45% compared with 9.78% in the previous session and the average of 8.35% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology| -153.3138| -8.1| 6/4
Health Care | -1.0531| -1.6| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary| 1.0677| 0.1| 6/7
Communication Services| 3.1220| 0.4| 2/3
Real Estate | 3.2514| 0.7| 16/4
Materials | 7.3492| 0.3| 25/22
Consumer Staples | 7.5846| 0.8| 11/0
Utilities | 8.9801| 1.1| 14/1
Industrials | 13.9957| 0.5| 19/8
Energy | 19.5799| 0.5| 25/16
Financials | 57.9582| 0.9| 20/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -165.5000| -18.5| 132.7| -16.5
Cameco | -4.5860| -2.1| -4.0| 21.6
NexGen Energy | -4.5680| -12.3| 246.6| 13.5
Constellation Software | 8.9770| 1.7| 18.9| 16.3
TD Bank | 11.5500| 1.2| -22.4| -10.2
RBC | 12.2000| 0.9| -42.7| 4.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s enthusiasm for stocks faded as many traders were reluctant to keep piling in after a solid rally in early May.
The S&P 500 closed little changed, remaining below the 5,200 mark that it briefly touched this week.
Tesla Inc. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. led losses in megacaps.
Intel Corp. sank as it expects revenue to fall “below the midpoint” of previously issued projections after a US ban on chip exports to Huawei Technologies Co.
Treasuries remained lower after a $42 billion sale of 10-year bonds saw tepid demand.
“All of these ingredients create a perfect recipe for an excuse for investors to take a step back after the recent bounce and reassess things,” said strategists at Bespoke Investment Group.
Lack of conviction among investors to buy into the recent bounce in US stocks shows the market is far from turning fully bullish, said Citigroup Inc. strategists.
The recent unwind of short positions has left the S&P 500 close to one-sided net long, but investors appear hesitant to add to the existing bullish positions, a team led by Chris Montagu noted.
“Flows tell a story of limited enthusiasm with a trickle of new long positions and only marginal increase in risk appetite,” Montagu said.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,190, following its biggest four- day advance since November. Treasury 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.49%.
Following a pullback last month, equities resumed their advance in early May as solid corporate earnings bolstered sentiment and speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates this year.
The recent rally brought the S&P 500 about 1% away from its all-time high.
Yet the bounce off April’s lows was a narrow one, noted Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“That’s not the end of the world,” he said. “But it would be a lot more positive if this rally can broaden out over the coming days and weeks — given that the market is a lot more expensive than it was at this time last year.”
A surge in the S&P 500 since the end of October through April had pushed the equity gauge to trade at 20 times projected profits, some 11% above its 10-year average.
Traders are now looking for reasons to justify the high valuations and want to see bigger growth ahead.
The recent stock rally signaled that traders are more driven by “fear of missing out” than confidence about fundamentals as there is still uncertainty as to where earnings go from here and few market catalysts on the horizon, according to David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group.
“With no rate cuts possible until July and not likely until September, and the next earnings season two months from starting, there are no apparent catalysts to change the near future direction of stocks other than speculation around what various data points,” he noted.
Inflation figures due next week will offer fresh insights about the US economy after employment data out Friday showed the labor market is cooling.
Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins signaled Wednesday that interest rates will likely need to be held at a two-decade high for longer than previously thought to damp demand and reduce price pressures.
“Despite the lack of good news on inflation, there is a silver lining for patient investors,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “As the Federal Reserve extends the timeline for interest rate cuts, historical data shows that longer Fed pauses often correlate with better equity returns. This should give investors reasons to be optimistic.”
Indeed, longer pauses have been constructive for equities, according to a study conducted by Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
“The longest pause from June 2006 to September 2007 was associated with the best equity market return,” he noted. “We are reaching the point where a Fed cut is probably more likely to mean issues are perking up.”
Robust corporate earnings will continue to lift the S&P 500 to 5,500 by the end of this year as profit margins improve, according to Societe Generale SA.
“Profits are the glue in this cycle,” the firm’s head of US equity strategy Manish Kabra wrote, adding that 2024 should be considered “an inflationary year, rather than stagflationary” as earnings-per-share growth is poised to accelerate further.
S&P 500 companies crushed earnings-growth expectations again in the first quarter, driving upward momentum in consensus for top and bottom lines, but guidance suggests a heavy dependence on margin to meet future expectations, according to
Gina Martin Adams at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“Earnings are well on the recovery path now that the 2022-2023 earnings recession is past, and they should return to double-digit growth with widespread participation later this year,” she noted. “However, sales growth is expected to hover in the low-to mid-single digit range through 2026, suggesting the earnings recovery is so far mostly about margin expansion amid cost-cutting and easing inflation pressures.”
There’s been a resurgence of earnings per share as several industries emerge from “EPS rolling recessions,” according to Erin Browne and Emmanuel Sharef at Pacific Investment Management Co.
That means different equity sectors experience earnings downturns at different times and then recover, one after the other, over a span of several quarters.
The growth sector of the S&P 500 — dominated by technology— went through an EPS recession in 2022 and then recovered in 2023 — while most other sectors’ EPS were contracting, they added.
“As we progress through 2024, we expect defensive and cyclical stocks will emerge from their earnings contractions, potentially leading to significant price appreciation,” they noted. “Macro trends and supportive bottom-up signals have us modestly overweight equities in multi-asset portfolios.”
Against a backdrop of slowing job growth and slumping consumer confidence, investors will now turn their focus to the earnings of retailing giants like Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. to gauge shoppers’ spending habits.
Both firms are due to report over the next couple weeks, with the potential to sway expectations for economic growth and retail shares, which are trailing the broader market in 2024.
Meantime, utility companies are beating the S&P 500 at a blistering pace since the equity benchmark bottomed last month, a defensive shift that poses a roadblock for the bulls in the short-run if traders are using bond-proxy sectors as leadership stocks.
The utilities sector, which includes companies providing electricity, water and gas that are known for their consistent dividend payments, has climbed by 11% in 15 sessions through Tuesday — a sizzling rate that was last exceeded in the depths of the pandemic in 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Corporate Highlights:
* Uber Technologies Inc. reported gross bookings in the first quarter that missed analysts’ estimates with softer-than- expected demand in Latin America and earlier holidays weighing on orders.
* Lyft Inc. reported first-quarter results and financial guidance that beat investors’ expectations, a sign of the company’s ability to retain and attract new riders in the US and Canada.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. fell short of Wall Street’s earnings expectations to start the year as the automaker pursues a costly effort to revamp its manufacturing operations and boost output of electric vehicles.
* Shopify Inc. shares tumbled after the Canadian e-commerce company pledged to continue investing in marketing even though doing so will pinch profits.
* Chinese iPhone shipments jumped about 12% in March after Apple Inc. and its retailers slashed prices, official data showed, suggesting efforts to arrest an accelerating decline in sales are yielding early results.
* Pfizer Inc. has agreed to settle more than 10,000 cases accusing it of hiding the cancer risks of its Zantac heartburn drug, according to people familiar with the deal, the biggest of the litigation.
* Reddit Inc. jumped as improvements to the social-media platform’s advertising system helped push quarterly sales higher than expected in its first results as a public company.
* Brookfield Asset Management reported its first quarterly decline in profit since it spun out of its parent company amid a drop in fees from some permanent capital vehicles.

Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0745
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2497
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 155.62 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $62,180.27
* Ether fell 1.6% to $3,000.6
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.46%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $79.21 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,309.04 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Farah Elbahrawy and Jessica Menton.

Have a wonderful day everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“All great art contains at its center contemplation, a dynamic contemplation.”– Susan Sontag

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On May 7, 1945, Germany signed an unconditional surrender at Allied headquarters in Rheims, France, to take effect the following day, ending the European conflict of World War II. Go to article >>
1955: West European Union formed.
May 7, 2000: Vladimir Putin becomes President of Russia.

1824: Premiere of Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony.

Pyotr Tchaikovsky, composer, b. 1840.
Gary Cooper, actor, b. 1901.
Eva Peron, Argentina’s “Evita”, b.1919.

Here’s what happened at the Met Gala
The Met Gala, an annual, invitation-only event, was held Monday in New York City. See photos from one of fashion’s biggest nights.

Kremlin critic wins Pulitzer Prize
Vladimir Kara-Murza, a prominent Russian human rights advocate and Kremlin critic, has won the Pulitzer Prize for commentary written from his prison cell.

Siberia’s ‘gateway to the underworld’ is growing a staggering amount each year
The Batagay megaslump — a 3,250-foot-wide (990 meters) depression in the permafrost in the Russian Far East — is “actively growing” by a massive amount every year, scientists have found. Read More.

Iron Age necropolis that predates Rome unearthed near Naples
The excavations have recovered weapons, necklaces, bracelets and worked bones. Read More.

Earth from space: Mysterious wave ripples across ‘galaxy’ of icebergs in Arctic fjord
A puzzling arc was spotted in the water of a Greenland fjord littered with iceberg fragments. There are a couple of possible explanations for this bizarre phenomenon but we will likely never know what caused it,
experts say. Read More.

Mars may have been more Earth-like than we thought, discovery of oxygen-rich rocks reveals
Newfound rocks on Mars suggest the planet may have once sported an oxygen-rich atmosphere, making it more Earth-like and hospitable to life than previously thought. Read More.

‘Major lunar standstill’ may reveal if Stonehenge is aligned with the moon
Is Stonehenge aligned with the moon? Scientists hope to find out during a rare “major lunar standstill,” which happens once every 18.6 years. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wehrheim, Germany
A deer stands in deep grass near Frankfurt
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Stroud, UK
The Miserden Morris dancing group perform at sunrise on Rodborough Common as part of the May Day celebrations
Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty

​​​​​​​Hastings, UK
Participants attend the annual May Day bank holiday Jack In The Green parade and festival in East Sussex
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Market Closes for May 7^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38884.26	+31.99
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5187.70	+6.96
		+0.13%
NASDAQ	16332.55	-16.70
		-0.10%
TSX	22290.62	+31.15
		+0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38835.10	+599.03
		+1.57%
HANG SENG	18479.37	-98.93
		-0.53%
SENSEX	73895.54	+17.39
		+0.02%
FTSE 100*	8313.67	+100.18
		+1.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.584	3.612
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.470	3.507
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4570	4.4833
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5974	4.6338

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7281	0.7317
US $	1.3734	1.3667

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4764	0.6773
US $	1.0750	0.9302

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.48	78.11

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1825, one of the earliest buying frenzies for an American IPO was reported when the Bank of Southwark went public in Philadelphia. Investors hired muscular goons to sign their names into the subscription books, and “noses were smashed, hats jammed in, and the police court was at work over the wounded for weeks after.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.1%, or 31.15 to 22,290.62 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since April 9.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%.
Finning International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 3.5%.
Today, 104 of 223 shares rose, while 111 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.7% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.78% compared with 9.79% in the previous session and the average of 8.30% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 26.4163| 0.6| 25/12
Materials | 23.2820| 0.9| 36/13
Information Technology | 1.0468| 0.1| 5/5
Communication Services | 0.1890| 0.0| 4/1
Utilities | -0.4031| 0.0| 4/10
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7620| -0.1| 6/7
Health Care | -0.7785| -1.2| 0/4
Real Estate | -3.3788| -0.7| 4/16
Financials | -3.4011| -0.1| 8/18
Consumer Staples | -4.9737| -0.6| 2/9
Industrials | -6.0830| -0.2| 10/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 10.4300| 1.1| 6.5| -11.3
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.7310| 1.0| -41.4| 20.8
Nutrien | 6.9880| 2.7| -11.8| 1.6
WSP Global | -3.8200| -2.0| 16.5| 15.5
Bank of Montreal | -4.3630| -0.7| 16.7| -3.7
RBC | -4.8220| -0.4| 9.8| 3.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The rally that has powered stocks in May struggled gain much traction on Tuesday, with investors split on whether the market can sustain the advance given all the economic crosscurrents.
Equities are set for a consolidation amid stretched positioning, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
Meantime, a pair of contrarian sentiment indicators from Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are on the cusp of levels that say it’s time to snap up shares.
And Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Commodity Trading Advisors have lifted their stock exposure and are expected to keep buying regardless of the market direction this week.
Stocks have been trying to make a comeback after April’s rout, with gains fueled by prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts and solid earnings.
While the S&P 500 recently broke above a key technical level, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. says he’d like to see a bit more upside follow-through to confirm the “break.”
“We continue to see a path higher for stock prices as long as fundamental conditions remain stable and profit growth remains on a positive trend,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Elevated interest rates and sticky inflation, along with the Fed holding monetary policy at restrictive levels for longer than most expected at the start of the year, introduce some added risks.”
The S&P 500 briefly hit 5,200.
Peloton Interactive Inc. soared as CNBC reported that a number of private-equity firms are mulling a buyout.
Walt Disney Co. sank on a weak subscriber outlook.
Apple Inc. saw a small gain after unveiling a new artificial intelligence-focused iPad Pro and a larger iPad Air.
Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 4.45%.
A $58 billion sale of three-year notes garnered solid demand.
This week’s offerings also include $42 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday.
Despite resilient consumption and artificial-intelligence optimism, US economic growth slid last quarter while inflation stayed high.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday it’s likely the central bank will keep rates where they are “for an extended period of time” until officials are certain prices are on track to their target.
Economists at Morgan Stanley changed their forecast for the timing of the Fed’s first cut to September from July because of “lack of progress” on inflation.
US growth momentum is resilient, but likely slowing, and that could weigh on equities, which have decoupled from the Fed by assuming that an acceleration in growth was lying ahead, a JPMorgan team led by Mislav Matejka wrote.
The equity rally “created a complacent technical picture,” with sentiment and positioning indicators still near highs, despite some recent consolidation, they said.
“While internals improved, our breadth indicators remain in confirmed sell signals,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler in a note titled “Not Out of the Woods Yet.”
The biggest buyers of US equities, American companies, are back in the market and ready to drive the next leg of the stock rally, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
About a sixth of the $934 billion in estimated share repurchases this year are expected get executed in May and June, the firm’s tactical specialist Scott Rubner wrote.
All major Bank of America Corp. client groups offloaded US equities last week, quantitative strategists at the firm said Tuesday.
Institutional clients, hedge funds and retail investors sold a net $4.6 billion of US stocks in the five-day period ended Friday, a team led by Jill Carey Hall said in a note.
Meantime, buying options to protect against a stock-market plunge hit the cheapest in nine years this week.
As the CBOE Volatility Index — or VIX, which measures expected swings in equity markets — sank over the past couple weeks, so did an index tracking the implied volatility of VIX options, known as the VVIX.
The VVIX finished Monday’s session just above 73, its lowest closing value since May 2015.
The index advanced Tuesday, while holding well below its one-year average of 89.
“Over the near term, US benchmarks can continue to push back toward their recent 2024 highs,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“However, we do not believe that the signals for further volatility ahead have been canceled/negated at this time — and thus we continue to watch for another potential down-leg in US equities over the coming weeks.” To Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management, investors should stay vigilant on a range of economic and geopolitical risks that could send market volatility back up again.
“Investors can mitigate such volatility and keep their portfolios on track by diversifying and balancing across asset classes,” she noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Palantir Technologies Inc. tumbled as the market appeared unimpressed by the company’s outlook for annual sales after the stock has tripled in the past year.
* Instacart is partnering with Uber Technologies Inc. to offer restaurant delivery through the Instacart app — taking on the top US food delivery app, DoorDash Inc.
* Boeing Co. has been in crisis mode ever since the near-catastrophic accident on a 737 Max 9 in early January — and there’s little sign it’s catching a break anytime soon as the next investigation looms — this time involving the flagship 787 Dreamliner model.
* Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. expects to produce Boeing Co. 737 Max aircraft bodies at a lowered rate for the rest of the year, pressuring its finances as the two companies work to improve quality in their factories.
* Lucid Group Inc. revealed a wider-than-expected loss to start the year as the company contends with production challenges and uneven demand for high-end electric vehicles.
* Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox gaming division will shut down four subsidiaries, including the game studio Arkane Austin, according to an email reviewed by Bloomberg.
* Truist Financial Corp. boosted its revenue forecast for the year after it completed the sale of a majority stake in its insurance-brokerage business.
* UBS Group AG returned to profit after two loss-making quarters, cementing sustained progress in the integration of Credit Suisse after its emergency rescue last year.

Key events this week:
* Toyota earnings, Wednesday
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0756
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2509
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 154.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $63,018.51
* Ether fell 0.9% to $3,049.32
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,315.07 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Carly Wanna, Thyagu Adinarayan and Michael Msika.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Logic will take you from A to B.  Imagination will take you everywhere. -Albert Einstein, 1879-1955.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

May 6, 1527: Sack of Rome.
On May 6, 1937, the hydrogen-filled German dirigible Hindenburg burned and crashed in Lakehurst, N.J., killing 36 of the 97 people on board. Go to article >>

Sigmund Freud, founder of psychoanalysis, b. 1856.
Orson Welles, b. 1915.
George Clooney, b. 1961.

The 2024 Met Gala is today
Stars will soon showcase a plethora of bold and outlandish outfits at the Met Gala in New York. Read about this year’s theme.

Free Madonna concert attracts 1.6 million to Brazil’s Copacabana beach
More than a million people braved the heat of Rio de Janeiro to see the end of Madonna’s “Celebration” world tour.

Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby in a dramatic photo finish
Did you watch the Kentucky Derby on Saturday — yay or neigh? In case you missed it, here are photos from the thrilling finish at Churchill Downs.

What is a vegetable?
Fun fact: The term vegetable doesn’t exist botanically. Here’s why you should eat them anyway.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons fly over the Cappadocia region, which is famous for its fairy chimneys
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Waterlooville, UK
The Green Man and his queen perform during the Celtic fire festival Beltain in Hampshire in southern England. The modern participatory arts event celebrates the Gaelic May Day festival and marks the beginning of summer. Historically it was widely observed in Ireland, Scotland and the Isle of Man
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Bulacan, the Philippines
People across the country have sort ways to stay cool during a deadly heatwave that has led to school closures and triggered urgent health warnings across south-east Asia
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 6^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38852.27	+176.59
		+0.46%
S&P 500	5180.74	+52.95
		+1.03%
NASDAQ	16349.25	+192.92
		+1.19%
TSX	22259.47	+312.06
		+1.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38236.07	-37.98
		-0.10%
HANG SENG	18578.30	+102.38
		+0.55%
SENSEX	73895.54	+17.39
		+0.02%
FTSE 100*	8213.49	+41.34
		+0.51%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.612	3.648
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.507	3.553
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4833	4.5077
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6338	4.6645

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7317	0.7314
US $	1.3667	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4718	0.6794
US $	1.0770	0.9285

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.11	78.11

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1870, Amadeo Giannini was born. In San Francisco in 1904 he founded the Bank of Italy to serve the city’s burgeoning working class. It later financed the Golden Gate Bridge and lent David Selznick the money to finish filming “Gone With the Wind.” Today, as Bank of America, it is one of the world’s biggest financial-services firms.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1.4%, or 312.06 to 22,259.47 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.6% on Feb. 15.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 187 of 223 shares rose, while 32 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
Aritzia Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain seven times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.7% and declined 0.5% once
* The index advanced 8.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.48t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.79% compared with 8.85% in the previous session and the average of 8.23% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 72.4144| 1.1| 24/2
Energy | 61.5976| 1.5| 38/2
Industrials | 52.7268| 1.7| 23/4
Information Technology | 52.1264| 2.8| 8/2
Materials | 47.7803| 1.8| 43/6
Utilities | 11.5905| 1.4| 13/2
Consumer Staples | 5.6840| 0.6| 9/2
Real Estate | 4.5624| 1.0| 16/3
Consumer Discretionary | 2.5624| 0.3| 7/6
Communication Services | 1.8073| 0.3| 4/1
Health Care | -0.8025| -1.2| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 32.2800| 3.8| 70.6| 2.4
Constellation Software | 15.4400| 3.1| 29.6| 14.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 15.2600| 2.2| -35.7| 6.3
Bausch Health | -0.8480| -3.8| 62.5| -3.4
First Quantum Minerals | -1.0410| -1.1| -6.7| 69.3
Restaurant Brands | -1.6170| -0.7| -22.3| -0.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw their best three-day rally since November, fueled by speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year.
The S&P 500 rose 1% after topping its average price of the past 50 days — a level seen by many chartists as key in maintaining the positive sentiment.
A solid earnings season kept driving optimism after a pullback that made some areas of the market attractive.
While the below-average trading volume raised concern about the sustainability of the advance, most industries gained.
“Bulls will be looking to maintain their momentum after snatching last week from the jaws of bears,” according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“This week is light on high-profile economic data, but heavy on Fed members hitting the speaking circuit.
Traders will be dissecting any comments they make about potential rate cuts.”
The US equity benchmark rose above 5,180.
Nvidia Corp. and  Tesla Inc. paced gains in mega-caps.
Micron Technology Inc. jumped on an analyst upgrade.
Apple Inc. fell, with Warren Buffett revealing he’d cut his stake even after heaping praise on the iPhone maker.
Treasury 10-year yields slid two basis points to 4.49%.
Traders also kept an eye on the latest geopolitical developments, with Israel rejecting a statement from Hamas that it had accepted a cease-fire proposal to end the fighting in Gaza.
Oil closed higher.
Following Jerome Powell’s not-very-hawkish tone last Wednesday, investors waded through remarks from some of the many Fed officials due to speak this week.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he expects high rates to slow the economy further and cool inflation to the 2% target.
His New York counterpart John Williams said eventually there will be rate cuts — but the decision on when will depend on the totality of the data.
Despite pressure from still elevated rates, strong corporate results have justified high stock valuations, according to strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute.
“Solid corporate earnings keep us overweight US stocks,” a team led by Jean Boivin and Wei Li said Monday in their weekly market commentary.
More than 80% of the S&P 500 companies have now reported first-quarter earnings, and profit growth has easily surpassed “mediocre expectations”, according to Gina Martin Adams at Bloomberg Intelligence.
The index is now on pace for a 6.5% earnings growth, almost double pre-season estimates of 3.75%, she noted.
Bets on double-digit earnings growth this year for companies in the S&P 500 are too lofty as Corporate America is likely to be challenged by higher rates, according to JPMorgan Chase Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
“Consensus earnings expectations for this year look too optimistic,” he wrote.
Analyst projections imply S&P 500 earnings will rise 17% from the first to fourth quarter, a feat that requires high topline growth or substantial expansion, he added.
“Better than expected Q1 S&P 500 earnings and the recent pullback in stock prices brought P/E multiples of several key US benchmarks back to attractive levels in our view,” said John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
The backdrop for stocks remains supportive, driven by healthy and broadening profit growth, inflation that will likely resume falling, a Fed that is more likely to cut than hike rates, and surging investment in artificial intelligence,
according to David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial remarked that stock-market breadth remains robust and momentum is also improving.
Meantime, hedge funds are reversing their bearish stance on consumer stocks as the latest economic data and comments from the Fed revive bets on rate cuts.
After four weeks of selling, hedge funds last week piled into consumer discretionary stocks, which saw the largest net buying during the week ended May 3, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk.
The move was driven by long buys as well as the largest short covering since December 2023.
“Mixed” messages from key US economic data and the accompanying swings in stock markets mean investors should load up on defensive sectors such as consumer staples, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
A soft landing or a so-called no landing, where growth is resilient even as rates stay high, both remain possible for the US economy, the team led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note.
This uncertain backdrop warrants an investment approach that can work as market pricing and leadership between groups of stocks gets whipsawed by the potential outcomes.
In corporate earnings, Arm Holdings Plc should show it continued to benefit from artificial-intelligence demand when it reports this week.
Airbnb Inc. may be among gig economy companies posting slower growth.
Uber Technologies Inc. should be a bright spot as it expands its pool of drivers and merchants, drawing more active users.
Walt Disney Co., fresh off a victory in its proxy fight against activist investor Nelson Peltz, is set to impress as cost-cutting efforts take hold, the bet on streaming gets closer to paying off and its theme parks keep drawing visitors.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. faces a new investigation by US aviation safety regulators tied to inspections of the company’s 787 Dreamliner and whether employees may have falsified records.
* The US Securities and Exchange Commission warned Robinhood Markets Inc. that it faces an enforcement action over its crypto business — the latest sign that the regulator isn’t letting up on its years-long crackdown on digital assets.
* Chip-design company Synopsys Inc. is selling its software integrity business to two private equity firms for as much as $2.1 billion in cash.
* Tyson Foods Inc. said persistent inflation has eroded consumers’ appetite for the branded and ready-to-eat offerings accounting for most of the company’s profits.
* United States Steel Corp. was raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley, based on prospects for “transformational” investments.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods foresees arbitration with Chevron Corp. over a premier Guyanese asset stretching into 2025 due to the importance of the case to both companies.
* Brookfield Asset Management struck a partnership with Castlelake LP to get a majority share of the private debt firm’s fee-related earnings, another move in the Canadian investing giant’s effort to grow its credit business.

Key events this week:
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Tuesday
* UBS earnings, Walt Disney, BP earnings, Tuesday
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Tuesday
* Toyota earnings, Wednesday
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0767
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2560
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 153.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $63,198.63
* Ether fell 2.2% to $3,069.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.22%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $78.63 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,325.39 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Natalia Kniazhevich.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Men are more moral than they think and far more immoral than they can imagine. –Sigmund Freud, 1856-1939.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

May 3, 1978: The Digital Equipment Corporation send the world’s first spam email.  It was promoting mainframe  computers for sale.
1981: The space shuttle Columbia blasted off from Cape Canaveral, Fla., on its first test flight.  Go to article >>

May 3, 1971: National Public Radio 1st News Broadcast.

Niccolo Macchiavelli, statesman, b. 1469.
Golda Meir, Israeli Prime Minister, b. 1898.
Pete Saeger, musician, b. 1919.
James Brown, singer, b. 1928.

Orangutan observed treating wound using medicinal plant
Scientists working in Indonesia have observed an orangutan intentionally treating a wound on its face with a medicinal plant, the first time this behavior has been documented.

Certified emotional support alligator is missing
The search is on to find Wally, a “gentle” emotional support alligator currently on the loose in Georgia.

Hockey crowd erupts when daughter mimics dad’s chugging
Who chugs their beverage better, dad or daughter? Watch this video to see a fun jumbotron chugathon.

‘Ping pong-sized’ hailstones ravage famous French wine region
A violent hailstorm wreaked havoc on vineyards in Chablis, ripping plants apart in the latest weather-related blow to hit local Chardonnay winemakers.

Women need to exercise and eat differently than men. Here’s how
You may have heard about the benefits of intermittent fasting and strength training. But are they equally beneficial to men and women? Not necessarily.

Neanderthal woman’s face brought to life in stunning reconstruction
With her long, brown hair and determined gaze, the new facial reconstruction lets us peek into the world of an archaic human who lived tens of thousands of years ago. Read More.

‘You certainly don’t see this every day’: Ultra-rare backward-spinning tornado formed over Oklahoma
A pair of odd twisters spun out from a supercell thunderstorm in Oklahoma Tuesday (April 30). Read More.

Asteroid that exploded over Berlin was fastest-spinning space rock ever recorded
Scientists have calculated the rotational speed of asteroid 2024 BX1, which exploded over Berlin earlier this year, by letting it trail in images of the sky. It turns out, 2024 BX1 was spinning faster than any other near-Earth object ever seen. Read More.

Optical illusion reveals key brain rule that governs consciousness A study of mice starts to unravel how the brain gets tricked by this kind of optical illusion, and it gives clues about how visual perception works. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY 

Agassiz, Canada
A young girl runs between rows of flowers at the Harrison tulip festival in British Columbia
Photograph: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock

A field hamster peeks out of its burrow in Euskirchen, Germany. About a dozen captive-bred hamsters have been released into the wild there in the hope that this will prevent the species’ extinction. They are much bigger than domestic pet hamsters – even longer in the body than a guinea pig, although not as rotund
Photograph: Oliver Berg/dpa

​​​​​​​Rimini, Italy
This multi-exposure photograph shows an athlete competing in the rings during the men’s individual apparatus final at the Artistic Gymnastics European Championships
Photograph: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 3^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38675.68	+450.02
		+1.18%
S&P 500	5127.79	+63.59
		+1.26%
NASDAQ	16156.33	+315.37
		+1.99%
TSX	21947.41	+124.19
		+0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38236.07	-37.98
		-0.10%
HANG SENG	18475.92	+268.79
		+1.48%
SENSEX	73878.15	-732.96
		-0.98%
FTSE 100*	8123.49	+41.34
		+0.51%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.648	3.737
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.553	3.628
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5077	4.5811
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6645	4.7284

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7315
US $	1.3672	1.3670

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4724	0.6792
US $	1.0769	0.9286

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2302.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.11	78.95

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 11000 for the first time, just 24 trading days after breaking the 10000 mark—the shortest interval on record between 1000-point milestones.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.6%, or 124.19 to 21,947.41 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since April 23.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 10.7%.
Today, 130 of 223 shares rose, while 89 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 7.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.9% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 17.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.46t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.85% compared with 8.77% in the previous session and the average of 8.03% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 32.7489| 1.8| 9/1
Financials | 28.6073| 0.4| 24/2
Industrials | 17.2424| 0.6| 17/9
Materials | 15.1261| 0.6| 21/29
Utilities | 9.0940| 1.1| 11/3
Communication Services | 7.5190| 1.1| 3/2
Energy | 4.9798| 0.1| 12/28
Real Estate | 4.0549| 0.9| 17/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.3334| 0.4| 7/6
Consumer Staples | 1.5407| 0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -0.0532| -0.1| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 28.4900| 3.4| 24.2| -1.3
RBC | 25.9900| 1.9| -1.1| 3.3
Brookfield Corp | 13.5100| 2.4| -2.7| 9.7
Magna Intl | -4.3120| -3.5| 22.6| -18.4
Open Text | -13.6200| -14.8| 572.8| -25.7
TD Bank | -57.6300| -5.8| 59.0| -12.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks notched their biggest advance since February as a slowdown in US jobs sent bond yields sliding, with traders reviving bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
A softer-than-estimated payrolls number — that did not signal the labor market is rolling over — and a cooldown in wages appeased investors worrying about “stagflation” or a recession.
Instead, the latest employment print gave fodder to the believers in an economy that is gradually slowing and would allow a data-dependent Fed to start easing policy as early as September.
“The payroll miss hands the baton to the bulls,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Markets are rallying aggressively as incoming data point to a shorter journey across the monetary-policy bridge.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.3%, with equities also buoyed by Apple Inc.’s post-earnings surge.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 2%. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — sank to an over one-month low.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, dropped seven basis points to 4.81%.
Swap traders are now projecting around 50 basis points of policy easing this year — which would equate to two rate cuts.
The dollar saw its worst week since March.
A litany of weaker-than-estimated data points this week — from jobs to services and manufacturing — put the focus back on the “bad news is good news” narrative.
The US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index — which measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations — hit the lowest since February 2023.
Nonfarm payrolls advanced 175,000 in April, the smallest gain in six months.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% and wage gains slowed.
“The softer-than-expected payroll report suggests there is no heat in the economy that should keep inflation persistently high, which increases odds for rate cuts this year,” said Sonu Varghese at Carson Group.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg Television that additional jobs reports like Friday’s would give him comfort the economy is not overheating.
Speaking separately, Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation will likely remain elevated for “some time,” but added she still anticipates price gains will eventually cool with rates held at current levels.
Following Wednesday’s Fed decision, Chair Jerome Powell noted it’s unlikely the next move would be to raise rates.
Being weaker across the board, the April employment report vindicates Powell’s decision not to lurch hawkish at the May meeting and “is good news for the Fed and the market,” according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“We feel somewhat more confident in our base case that the Fed will start cutting by September,” Guha added.
To Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management, the latest jobs report indeed brings the rate-cutting dialogue back into the market and perhaps explains why Powell was able to lean more dovish on Wednesday.
“This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” Shah noted.
“Of course, today’s weaker numbers need to mark the start of a new slower trend for multiple rate cuts to seriously be back on the agenda – but, by then, the new fear could be a slowing economy.”
Separate data Friday showed the US services sector unexpectedly contracted in April for the first time since 2022 as a gauge of business activity slumped to a four-year low and a measure of input costs rose.
“Today’s jobs report is the definition of Goldilocks: job growth that is gradually moving back to around trend amid a normalization of wage growth,” said Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“This is certainly the type of employment report that Fed officials will welcome. We remain optimistic that the Fed will first ease rates at its September FOMC meeting.”
Overall, market observers say signs of a cooling economy could nudge the Fed to lower interest rates over time — but that inflation data would be vital.
“Worried that the US economy is overheating? The April employment report throws a bit of cold water on that idea,” said Mark Hamrick at Bankrate.
“The data will need to align for the Fed to gain confidence that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target before pulling a rate cut trigger. It remains on high alert for unacceptably high inflation.”
A rally in US stocks faltered last month as the Fed signaled it would hold interest rates higher for longer amid elevated inflation.
A sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter has also raised “stagflation” chatter — though many market observers have downplayed that possibility at this stage.
To Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the latest jobs report should be perceived by markets as a “welcome breath of fresh air as it will hush the hawkish undertone in the market and any recent ‘stagflation’ fears.”
While Fed officials will likely be relieved that the labor market is cooling, this report is not soft enough to change the Fed outlook, according to Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“Hiring was strong, unemployment remains low, and wages are likely to tick up again next month,” she noted.
Wilding bets the Fed will try to get at least one cut in this year, but she still expects the central bank to take one or two cuts out of its rate-path projections when it releases new Summary of Economic Projections in June.
Back in March, Fed officials maintained their outlook for three interest-rate cuts in 2024.
“If inflation does not breakout and jobs data stays moderate, a first rate cut could be due in September, but we expect the Fed to remain very dependent on incoming data, meeting by meeting,” said Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily
Trend Report.
Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance says that as long as the Fed maintains rates where they are — or cuts once or twice — the market can keep moving higher.

More Comments on Jobs:
* Michael Kantrowitz at Piper Sandler & Co.:  Soft macroeconomic data is needed to bring rates down and stocks up. Bullish all day.
* David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US:   The April employment report supports the optimism expressed by Jerome Powell on Wednesday regarding how the economy would unfold in coming months, settling into a slower rate of growth with inflation coming down.  Following the April jobs report, there is rising optimism that the Fed may be more supportive of the markets now pricing in two possible rate cuts this year.

* Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management:  Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to cut interest rates in the near-term, as there have still been several months of strong
jobs and inflation data and it’s clear that inflation is still too far above the Fed’s 2% target to justify a rate cut. 

* David Mazza at Roundhill Investments:  While one softer-than-expected jobs report will not be enough to bias the Fed to cut at their next meeting, it shows the labor market may be starting to materially cool.  More importantly, wage growth was lower than expected, which is a positive sign for inflation. In short, this coupled with Apple’s earnings report, will put the bulls in charge to close out a busy macro week.

* Mohamed El-Erian at Queens’ College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist:  A goldilocks report that will please the Fed and please the markets.  I’m not particularly surprised on the miss on job creation, because we have been running at very high levels for the year.  I’m a little surprised on the wage, the 0.2%, that is the one that surprises me. That’s something that one needs to look at much more closely.

* Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management:  Overall, data from the April labor market report dampened the market’s view on how strong the US economy is running and has allowed the possibility of rate cuts this year to come back into the conversation. At any rate, the Fed will certainly welcome the data as it should relieve some of the pressure around the higher-for-longer policy narrative.

* Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial:  The demand for labor is slowing which will eventually ease inflation pressures, giving the Fed some leeway to cut rates later this year. Slower payroll growth and fewer hours worked imply the economy is slowing at a measured pace. This jobs report is consistent with the soft landing narrative.

* Bret Kenwell at eToro:  The April jobs report appears to be a Goldilocks print for investors. The April jobs report doesn’t create an urgent concern for the labor market or the economy, and it found a way to thread the needle between being soft enough, but not too weak.  The bond market is back to pricing in two rate cuts for the year, which is a relief to stock and crypto bulls.  Investors do not want to cheer for labor market deterioration. While some softness will help grease the wheels for looser financial policy from the Fed, persistent weakness in the jobs market would be a clear negative for the market.

* Ronald Temple at Lazard:  Today’s payroll report combined with the job opening and quit data all point to easing of labor market tightness, which should translate to lower wage and inflation pressure, opening the door for rate cuts as early as the September meeting.

* George Mateyo at Key Wealth:  Just what the Fed Chair wanted! Today’s employment report was weaker than expected. Yet, the weakness was not so weak to suggest that the labor market is rolling over. It was a slowdown that the Fed and many market participants have been wanting for some time.  Rate cuts will come back into focus, and investors should remain vigilant for larger slowdowns in the month ahead. But today, this small amount of bad news relative to expectations will be viewed as good news, and suggest the economy is moderating but remains on solid ground.

* Chris Low at FHN Financial:  Today’s report was a far cry from the kind of labor market weakness that would prompt a Fed rate cut. Nevertheless, more abundant labor and slower job and wage growth should help contain inflation, and that is the key to rate cuts. Hence, odds of a September rate cut have climbed.

* Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley:  Following a steady stream of sticky inflation data in recent months, today’s much-weaker-than-expected jobs report had \to bring smiles to the faces of the Fed board. It may not put a
June rate cut back on the table, but unless it turns out to be an anomaly, it will increase the odds that the Fed will be able to get in at least one cut this year.

* Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab UK:  Investors will interpret today’s weak jobs report as a sign that demand is slowing in the labor market. A dive in the labor market may be what it takes to push the Fed from a stroll to a sprint.

* Andrew Brenner at NatAlliancer Securities:  Weaker number, increased unemployment rate, and lower wage growth. Looks like a Goldilocks report.

* Matt Peron at Janus Henderson Investors:  The NFP report was a big sigh of relief for markets, with a softer job market and importantly a softer average hourly earnings readout.  Taken together, this should give markets some hope that inflation is not as sticky as feared and raises the possibility of getting back on the disinflation trend we saw last year.  In terms of markets, this should be a big boost given the negativity around sticky inflation of late, and if  confirmed, can bring the prospect of rate cuts back into the picture for 2024.

* Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors:  What will the Fed make of this? At last there is evidence of some weakness in the US jobs market. Rate cuts will move back up the agenda as a result and there is little doubt that markets
will take this as good news. While we shouldn’t make too much of single data prints, this could be the start of a positive trend for the Fed.

* Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management:  This report is generally good news for the markets, especially for bondholders. It could herald a period of at least \stable interest rates, accompanied by a gradual weakening of the
US dollar. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. posted stronger-than-expected sales last quarter and predicted a return to growth in the current period, sparking optimism that a slowdown is easing. Profit also topped Wall Street projections in the period, and Apple announced the biggest stock buyback in US history.
* Amgen Inc.’s shares soared after its chief executive officer said he was “very encouraged” by early results from a study of the company’s experimental obesity drug, MariTide.
* Société Generale SA equities traders outshone their bond-trading counterparts for a fourth straight quarter, with revenue from the unit helping the French bank beat estimates for profit in the three months through March.
* Booking Holdings Inc., owner of travel brands Kayak and Priceline, said it expects room-night reservations to slow in the current quarter as tensions in the Middle East curb regional tourism.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0764
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2549
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 152.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.7% to $62,103.17
* Ether rose 2.9% to $3,074.41
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.22%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $78.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,301.47 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Let your life lightly dance on the edges of Time like dew on the tip of a leaf. –Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1941.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com