January 3, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Memento Mori Day.

January 3, 1496: Leonardo da Vinci unsuccessfully tests a flying machine.
1961: The United States severed diplomatic relations with Cuba.  Go to article >>

J.R.R. Tolkien,  author, b.1892.
Stephen Stills, musician, b.1945.

Animated ‘Game of Thrones’ spinoffs are in the works
George R.R. Martin, the “Game of Thrones” author, said he’s working on three animated projects based on the wildly popular franchise. This comes as fans anxiously await the second season of HBO’s “House of the Dragon,” which is set to debut this summer. (HBO is owned by CNN’s parent company.)

3 scary breakthroughs AI will make in 2024
Although 2023 was a game-changing year for artificial intelligence, it was only the beginning, with 2024 set to usher in a host of scary advancements that may include artificial general intelligence and
even more realistic deepfakes. Read More.

1,500-year-old gold buckles discovered in Kazakhstan
The ornaments contain the earliest known depiction of a Göktürk “khagan,” who probably lived in the sixth century. Read More.

Ancient ‘celestial calendar’ found in Chinese tomb
It’s the first time written slips linked to the ancient calendar have been found in a tomb. Read More.

The tough task of saving the Panama Canal,

Film | 20 must-see movies coming out in 2024

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Rovaniemi, Finland
‘In December the sun is above the horizon for just three hours, which makes watching the sunrise much less of an early start.’
Photograph: Alice Ahearn/GuardianWitness

London, UK
A worker counts Humboldt penguins during the London Zoo’s annual stocktake
Photograph: James Veysey/Rex/Shutterstock

Kuwait City, Kuwait
Lightning strikes Al-Hamra tower (right) and Liberation tower
Photograph: Yasser Al-Zayyat/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 3rd, 2024

Market
Index
Close Change
Dow
Jones
37430.19 -284.85
-0.76%
S&P 500 4704.81 -38.02
-0.80%
NASDAQ  14592.21 -173.73
-1.18%
TSX 20818.58 -53.56
-0.26%

International Markets

Market
Index
Close Change
NIKKEI MARKET
CLOSE
N.A.
HANG
SENG
16646.41 -142.14
-0.85%
SENSEX 71356.60 -535.88
-0.75%
FTSE 100* 7682.33 -39.19
-0.51%

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond
3.155 3.182
CND.
30 Year
Bond
3.086 3.101
U.S.   
10 Year Bond
3.9162 3.9369
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.0725 4.0792

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.7491 0.7504
US
$
1.3349 1.3326

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro=
Inverse   
Canadian $ 1.4583 0.6857
US
$
1.0923 0.9155

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold
Fix 
2067.55 N.A
Oil
WTI Crude Future  72.70 70.35

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1977, Apple Computer was incorporated by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. The company, now known as Apple, ended last year with a market capitalization just shy of $3 trillion.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.3%, or 53.56 to 20,818.58 in Toronto.

The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Dec. 21.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%.

First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.0%.
Today, 160 of 225 shares fell, while 65 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 7.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Dec. 27, 2023 and 11.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.3t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.85% compared with 10.82% in the previous session and the average of 11.16% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -46.4887| -0.7| 2/25
Materials | -28.6980| -1.2| 10/42
Information Technology | -20.2302| -1.2| 1/9
Industrials | -13.1740| -0.5| 4/22
Consumer Discretionary | -12.5730| -1.7| 1/12
Real Estate | -5.5680| -1.1| 3/18
Utilities | -2.6878| -0.3| 6/9
Consumer Staples | -2.5984| -0.3| 2/9
Health Care | 0.6521| 1.1| 2/2
Communication Services | 4.4003| 0.6| 4/1
Energy | 73.4112| 2.0| 30/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -20.8100| -2.5| -39.1| -7.0
TD Bank | -9.2010| -0.8| 49.8| -0.8
Barrick Gold | -8.4710| -2.9| -25.5| -3.3
Constellation Software | 7.1060| 1.6| -32.8| 0.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 19.6200| 3.0| -58.2| 3.9
Suncor Energy | 23.0000| 5.9| -6.5| 6.8

US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — US stocks extended a slump while bonds edged higher in the aftermath of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%, extending a losing streak for a fourth day — the longest in over two months — as investors continued to retreat from last year’s winning tech stocks.

The S&P 500slid 0.8% while the Russell 2000 small caps gauge dropped 2.6%.
Tesla Inc. and semiconductor stocks slumped while crypto-tied equities floundered as Bitcoin erased most of its gains this year.
The dollar strengthened for a fourth day, the longest run since November.
Fed policymakers said rates could stay restrictive for longer than anticipated last month, while noting rates cuts could emerge before the year is out.

Swaps traders had been  factoring in a full quarter point cut to the benchmark rate by the March meeting on Friday.
Treasury yields ended the day near session lows with the rate on the 10-year reversing after climbing just above 4%, the highest since mid-December, earlier in the day.
“Overall, it was a hawkish update from the Fed,” according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, though “the tone has apparently fallen on indifferent ears.”
“The FOMC minutes focused on better balanced risks to growth and inflation, but policy will remain restrictive for some time,” Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner wrote. “We do not think this is a Fed planning to lower interest rates anytime soon.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell ignited a market rally last month after indicating that policymakers had discussed lowering interest rates.

His colleagues at the US central bank then attempted to walk back market enthusiasm for quicker and deeper rate cuts in the days that followed.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin held off on giving a forecast on when the US central bank’s first rate cut would occur. “Conditions are ever evolving,” he said in prepared remarks Wednesday. “So too will our approach. So, buckle up.  That’s the proper safety protocol even if you expect a soft landing.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge hit 47.4 last month, data out Wednesday showed.

The index has remained below the 50 level — indicating a contraction – since late 2022.
Separate data showed the number of job openings fell slightly in November from the prior month’s revised number.
“Overall, the labor market remains strong, but demand is cooling, coming into better balance with supply,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics wrote.
“These data will be welcome news for policymakers and support the Fed’s view that the next move in rates will be lower, likely in Q2.”
Friday’s jobs report could cement the cooling narrative, according to ING’s James Knightley.

The makeup of jobs growth is “almost as important as the payrolls number itself in determining the prospect for rate cuts in 2024,” he said.
Elsewhere, a slump in Bitcoin on Wednesday saw the cryptocurrency erase almost all gains it had made so far this year.

Stocks tied to the sector slipped with MicroStrategy Inc. sliding about 8% and Coinbase Global Inc. dropping roughly 3%.
“The year is certainly off to a rough start, which may motivate more profit taking, after the outsized gains of last year, but the fundamentals haven’t changed, nor have earnings estimates,” according to Louis Navellier of Navellier &
Associates. “There are opportunities in good stocks with attractive values being dragged down for no good reason.”
In corporate news, Walt Disney Co.’s Chief Executive Officer, Bob Iger, was drumming up investor support as he seeks to stave off pressure from billionaire activist Nelson Peltz.
Barrick Gold Corp. is sounding out some of First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s major investors to gauge their support for a potential takeover.
Cigna Group slumped after a Wall Street Journal report it was near a deal to sell its Medicare business for $3 billion to $4 billion. 

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ADP employment, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, PPI, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls/unemployment, factory orders, ISM services index, Friday
* Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0921
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2664
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 143.24 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.3% to $42,749.04
* Ether fell 6.2% to $2,219.55

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.90%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.02%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.64%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.8% to $73.02 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2,041.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alex Nicholson, Tassia Sipahutar, Pearl Liu, Alice Gledhill, James Hirai and Joanna Ossinger.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Your present circumstances don’t determine where you can go.  They merely determine where you start. –Nido Qubein, b. 1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

January 2, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.  Happy 2024!

January 2, 1492: Muhammad XII, the last Emir of Granada, surrenders his city to Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabel of Castile, ending both the Reconquista and centuries of Muslim rule in the Iberiuan peninsula.
January 2, 2008: Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel for the first time.  Go to article >>

Isaac Asimov, author, b. 1920

New Year’s celebrations around the world
Farewell, 2023! See photos of fireworks celebrations around the world as revelers rang in 2024.

CNN Travel names the best places to visit
If traveling is one of your resolutions, these 24 destinations deserve a spot on your bucket list.

Megalosaurus, the first dinosaur discovery
Take a look at a fossilized jawbone belonging to a Megalosaurus, the first dinosaur to be scientifically described and named.

Quadrantid meteor shower to blaze over North America
Up to 120 shooting stars per hour could be visible during a brief peak of the Quadrantid meteor shower — the year’s first meteor shower, coming to North America Jan. 3 and 4. Read More.

Huge archaeology discoveries that may come in 2024
From AI deciphering lost texts to a secret about our human relatives, here are some of the new breakthroughs in archaeology we may see this year. Read More.

What’s the farthest place the Vikings reached?
The Vikings reached as far west as Newfoundland, but did they also venture into Africa, the Middle East and Asia?
Full Story: Live Science (1/1)

The 10 best stargazing events of 2024
The 2024 stargazing guide includes a rare total solar eclipse, two bright comet flybys and three supermoons. Here are all the dates you need to know. Read More.

Space photo of the week: Uranus ‘rings’ in the New Year
The James Webb Space Telescope reveals a stunning new portrait of ice giant Uranus, featuring its frigid rings and 14 of 27 moons. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Breivikeidet, Norway
The northern lights swirl above a Sami camp beyond the Arctic Circle
Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty Images

Fireworks explode over the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Sydney Opera House during New Year’s Eve celebrations in Australia
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​People celebrate in China’s south-western Chongqing municipality
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 2nd, 2024

Market
Index
Close Change
Dow
Jones
37715.04 +25.50
+0.07%
S&P 500 4742.83 -27.00
-0.57%
NASDAQ  14765.94 -245.41
-1.63%
TSX 20872.14 -86.30
-0.41%

International Markets

Market
Index
Close Change
NIKKEI MARKET
CLOSE
N.A.
HANG
SENG
16788.55 -258.84
-1.52%
SENSEX 71892.48 -379.46
-0.52%
FTSE 100* 7721.52 -11.72
-0.15%

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond
3.182 3.110
CND.
30 Year
Bond
3.101 3.033
U.S.   
10 Year Bond
3.9369 3.8791
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.0792 4.0282

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.7504 0.7545
US
$
1.3326 1.3254

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro=
Inverse   
Canadian $ 1.4595 0.6852
US
$
1.0954 0.9129

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold
Fix 
N.A 2078.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future  70.35 71.65

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1915, Wall Street had its slowest trading day of the 20th century. Only 23,505 shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. The lack of interest also meant it was one of the best times to buy. By the end of 1915, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 82%, its biggest annual gain ever.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 20,872.14 in Toronto.

The move was the biggest since falling 1.1% on Dec. 20 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 7 of 11 sectors lost; 154 of 225 shares fell, while 64 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.6%. Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.8%.

Insights
* The index advanced 7.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Dec. 27, 2023 and 11.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.32t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.82% compared with 10.79% in the previous session and the average of 11.17% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -59.0464| -3.3| 0/10
Financials | -40.9123| -0.6| 4/22
Materials | -7.7488| -0.3| 11/41
Industrials | -5.6672| -0.2| 6/20
Real Estate | -3.3798| -0.7| 6/14
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9626| -0.4| 5/8
Health Care | -1.2385| -2.0| 1/3
Consumer Staples | 0.8927| 0.1| 5/5
Utilities | 0.9048| 0.1| 6/8
Communication Services | 13.6773| 1.8| 3/2
Energy | 19.1747| 0.5| 17/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -40.2000| -4.6| 1.3| -4.6
Brookfield Corp | -13.5000| -2.5| -11.2| -2.5
CGI Inc | -4.8950| -2.4| -20.4| -2.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.0610| 0.9| -48.3| 0.9
Enbridge | 9.8100| 1.4| -21.2| 1.4
BCE | 10.5300| 3.2| 20.2| 3.2

US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Stocks and Treasuries kicked off 2024 on a sour note as last year’s rally stalled and traders reined in their bets on interest-rate cuts.
The Nasdaq 100 index slid 1.7% Tuesday, the benchmark’s biggest drop in two months, as last year’s winners — the tech giants dubbed the Magnificent Seven — slumped.

Apple Inc. fell after an analyst at Barclays Plc warned that iPhone demand is cooling, Nvidia Corp. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. also sank.
Yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.94% amid a heavy slate of corporate debt issuance.
PGT Innovations Inc. climbed post market following an unsolicited takeover offer for $41.50 per share.

Bankers are optimistic that mergers and acquisitions will pick up after capping off the worst year for deals in a decade.
The first trading day of the new year brought 2023’s scorching rally to a halt after a more than $8 trillion surge in the S&P 500 last year.
“The new year brings tax-motivated postponed gain-taking and repositioning by portfolio managers after window dressing for their year-end portfolio prints,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC’s Tom Lee, who was among the few to forecast last year’s rally, still expects stocks to do well in 2024.

But, he noted, the first five days of January historically set the tone.
If the first five days are weak, that could negate his bullish call, Lee said.

He expects new highs in January followed by consolidation in the first half.
Oppenheimer Asset Management’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus is also bullish on 2024 though he sees US stocks as due for a breather.
“It’s not uncommon for markets to pause to digest a bull run of the magnitude experienced in the fourth quarter just ended,” said Stoltzfus. “In fact it would appear to us to make good sense for markets to pause considering the run-up in stock prices.”
The next earnings season could see the advance resume, he added.
The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, jumped around 6%, one of its biggest advances since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s pivot last month.

Wall Street’s fear gauge remains at subdued levels.
Traders are awaiting the release of the latest Fed minutes Wednesday.

The tone is expected to be hawkish according to BMO Capital Markets’ Ian Lyngen.
“A dovish surprise, while unlikely, would hold far greater shock value for a market that has moved away from taking the Fed at face value in favor of a more skeptical approach,” the strategist wrote.
Wednesday’s job openings data and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will also be scanned for signs of weakness in the labor market.
“If Powell is right that inflation can slow further without a sharp increase in unemployment, then the stock and bond rallies are justified,” according to Bloomberg Economics.
“But if traditional, empirical economic regularities hold true, then disinflation won’t be painless, and the peak effect of the Fed’s rate hikes on the labor market are just about hitting,” economists led by Anna Wong wrote.
Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, told CNN International that the US economy is “definitely” headed for a soft landing thanks to the Fed’s “decisiveness” in taming inflation.
The dollar gained 0.7% with almost all emerging-nation currencies trading lower against the greenback.

The yen weakened in thin trading as investors monitored conditions after an earthquake in Japan on Monday.
Bitcoin had climbed above $45,000 for the first time in almost two years Tuesday.

Anticipation is intensifying around the expected US approval for an exchange-traded fund investing directly in the biggest token.
Oil slumped after an early climb amid ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea.

West Texas Intermediate traded near $70 a barrel.
In Asia, sentiment was dented after Chinese President Xi Jinping acknowledged some companies and citizens had endured a difficult 2023 in a rare admission of domestic headwinds facing the country.
Despite persistent weakness in China, some investors consider a slump of almost 60% as a signal to buy Chinese stocks.

Almost a third of 417 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey say they will increase their China investments over the next 12 months.

Key events this week:
* Germany unemployment, Wednesday
* US FOMC minutes, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Wednesday
* Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Wednesday
* China Caixin services PMI, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ADP employment, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, PPI, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls/unemployment, factory orders, ISM services index, Friday
* Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.8%

Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0942
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.2617
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 141.98 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.7% to $44,790.73
* Ether rose 0.9% to $2,359.66

Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.93%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.07%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 3.64%

Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $70.39 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,058.20 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alex Nicholson, Joanna Ossinger, Zhu Lin and Tassia Sipahutar.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Grief is the price we pay for love. –Queen Elizabeth II, 1926-2022.

Carolann

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com