September 4, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 4, 1781: City of Los Angeles founded.
September 4, 2006: “Crocodile Hunter” Steve Irwin, 44, died after a stingray’s barb pierced his chest.  Go to article >>

Possible ‘mega’ fort found in Wales hints at tension between Romans and Celtics
The fort would have contained multiple buildings and was built sometime between the first and third centuries. Read More.

50,000 ‘knots’ scattered throughout our DNA control gene activity
The mapping of 50,000 mysterious “knots” in the human genome may someday lead to the development of new cancer drugs, researchers say. Read More.

Prototype quantum processor boasts record 99.9% qubit fidelity
IQM’s quantum processor achieved 99.9% fidelity in recent tests, the company says, edging the previous 99.8% record it set in February. Here’s what that actually means. Read More.

Silver is being buried beneath the sea, and it’s all because of climate change, study finds
For the first time, researchers have linked the amount of silver being buried in marine sediments to human-made climate change. Read More.

Sunspots surge to 23-year high as solar maximum continues to intensify far beyond initial expectations
The average number of visible dark patches on the sun’s surface in August was higher than any other month since September 2001. The final count was also more than twice as high as experts initially predicted it would be, demonstrating once again that the current solar maximum will be much more active than expected. Read More.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson reflects on ‘groundbreaking’ path to the Supreme Court in new memoir
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is using a new memoir published Tuesday to reflect on a personal journey that has already earned her a place in history.

Swiss rebalancing planes because first-class seats are too heavy
Let’s not jet ahead of ourselves, Swiss. The airline is now scrambling to make alterations to some of its planes because its first-class seats are too heavy.

Meet the ‘Godmother of AI’
CNN’s Fareed Zakaria spoke with Stanford University professor Fei-Fei Li about her journey as a computer scientist and how it influenced the discovery of modern artificial intelligence. Watch the video here.

Frances Tiafoe to face Taylor Fritz in US Open semifinals
The match guarantees an American man will play in the US Open Final. Here’s when you should tune in.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Museum of Leaving the Nest shows two tawny owlets in a Munich park. Take by Sasha Jumanca from Germany/Romania, it was highly commended in the 10 and under section of the competition
Photograph: Sasha Jumanca/Wildlife Photographer of the Year/PA

El Alamein, Egypt
Aircraft in China’s Ba Yi aerobatics team release smoke while performing manoeuvres at the first Egypt international airshow
Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Kahramanmaraş, Turkey
Farmers lay out tarhana, a fermented mixture of grain and yoghurt or fermented milk that is harvested during the heat and often exported
Photograph: Ahmet Aslan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 4^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1882, Thomas Edison opened the first central generating system, making electric lighting and power a possibility for those nearby in New York City.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 23,040.76 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.5%.
Today, 106 of 226 shares fell, while 116 rose; 3 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 9.9%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.3%
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 23.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.30% compared with 14.33% in the previous session and the average of 14.32% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -31.7155| -0.8| 10/31
Materials | -15.2644| -0.6| 12/37
Information Technology | -14.8075| -0.8| 3/7
Health Care | 0.7659| 1.2| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 0.9721| 0.1| 8/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4478| 0.4| 9/4
Utilities | 6.2319| 0.7| 14/1
Real Estate | 6.7923| 1.3| 19/1
Industrials | 6.7926| 0.2| 16/11
Communication Services | 7.2325| 1.0| 5/0
Financials | 27.8689| 0.4| 17/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -14.2000| -1.7| -50.8| -8.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.9300| -2.0| 16.1| 6.4
Brookfield Corp | -7.1880| -1.1| -18.6| 20.8
CIBC | 7.4710| 1.5| -11.2| 24.8
Bank of Nova Scotia| 7.6460| 1.3| 33.7| 6.5
RBC | 12.2600| 0.8| -37.1| 23.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields tumbled as data showing a slowdown in the US labor market boosted Wall Street’s bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Stocks fell as Nvidia Corp. extended its two-day selloff to 11%.
Just a few days ahead of the payrolls report, a reading on job openings known as JOLTS trailed estimates and hit the lowest level since 2021.
The figures sparked an immediate reaction in the bond market, pushing the US two-year note’s yield briefly below the 10-year note as traders built up wagers on a super-sized rate reduction this month.
Fed’s Beige Book Shows Stagnant, Declining US Economic Activity “The markets may not be as nervous as they were a month ago, but they’re still looking for confirmation the economy isn’t cooling off too much,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “So far this week, they haven’t gotten it.”
With the Fed set to begin cutting rates in a few weeks, the main question now is how big the first reduction will be.
Monthly US employment data due Friday will probably determine the answer.
Investors are on the edge of their seats after the release of the jobs report last month stoked growth fears.
Jerome Powell has made it clear the Fed is now more concerned about risks to the labor market than inflation, and another bad report would bolster the case for an outsize rate cut.
“Markets seem to see September as a coin flip between 25 and 50 basis points,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research. “I think going 25 bp risks the same market dynamic as skipping the July meeting. It’ll be fine until the next data point makes investors second guess the decision, fueling bets the Fed is behind the curve. Go 50 when you can, not when you must.”
Treasury 10-year yields declined seven basis points to 3.76%.
Swap traders have priced in over 100 basis points of Fed easing this year.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2%.
Nvidia saw its worst two-day plunge since October 2022.
Responding to a Bloomberg News report about the US Department of Justice sending out subpoenas as part of an antitrust probe, the chipmaker said it has been in contact with the agency — but has “not been subpoenaed.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the latest job-openings figures were “on the soft side,” but they do not suggest any rapid deterioration in the labor market. “The still low level of layoffs and tick up in hires suggests the labor market is not cracking,” said Guha. “On net,
we think JOLTS nudges down the bar for what the employment report Friday would need to deliver in order for the Fed to cut 50bp out the gates in September, though not radically.”
Rate options traders stepped up wagers that the Fed will kick off its easing cycle with a half-percentage-point cut this month.
Options tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate show that open interest, or the amount of positions owned by traders, has surged across a number of call contracts that expire on Sept. 13, five days before the central bank’s post-meeting announcement.
Kristina Hooper at Invesco expects the Fed will cut only 25 basis points, but anticipates that would only be the start of what is likely to be a “very significant easing cycle.”
The stock market could be heading for correction if payrolls data comes in weak on Friday, according to Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The bank’s clients are already positioning for a negative technical setup for share prices in the second half of September, Rubner wrote, adding that he expects a risk-off move to begin on Sept. 16.
“A market correction may start to get traction if payrolls are weak,” he wrote.
Bank of America Corp. clients were net sellers of US equities for a second consecutive week, recording the biggest net sale of shares since late 2020 as uncertainty grows around the economic outlook.
Institutional, hedge fund, and retail clients all offloaded US stocks, with net sales totaling $8 billion in the week ended Aug. 30, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Wednesday in a note.

Corporate Highlights:
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. reported weaker-than-expected margins, suggesting lower profitability than anticipated in its closely watched business of selling servers for artificial intelligence work.
* C3.ai Inc., a data analysis software company, reported quarterly subscription revenue that missed estimates.
* US President Joe Biden is preparing to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s $14.1 billion takeover of United States Steel Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Verizon Communications Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire rival telecommunications operator Frontier Communications Parent Inc., according to a person familiar with the negotiations.
* The Nordstrom family is looking to take their namesake department store chain private in a proposed $3.8 billion deal.
* Dollar Tree Inc. plunged in a harbinger of the pain coming for companies that cater to consumers earning less than $35,000 a year.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ADP employment, ISM services index, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1077
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3143
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 143.84 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $58,067.06
* Ether fell 0.4% to $2,453.49
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 3.76%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.22%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $68.85 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Chance fights ever on the side of the prudent. –Euripides, c. 480 BC- c.406 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com