September 30, 2015 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

The design for the new Vancouver Art Gallery was revealed yesterday  and it is a unique and fabulous concept by Swiss firm Herzog & Meron.  The design features stacked layers of wood encased chambers, a welcome departure from the glass and concrete.  The Vancouver Sun today states “It’s being compared to everything from a pagoda and a stack of bento boxes to a stylized totem pole and a welcome figure.”   

We were in Vancouver last weekend and stopped by the Art Gallery to check out the current exhibit, “Of Heaven &  Earth – 500 Years of Italian Painting from Glasgow Museums.”  It is a very good show featuring art from the late middle ages to the Renaissance – much of it from the collections of an industrialist named McClellan from the last century – everything from Bellini, Bottecelli and Titians to lesser known masters of the time.  Well worth visiting before it ends on October 4^th.

September 30^th, 1955:  Actor James Dean was killed in a two-car collision near Cholame, Calif., at age 24.

And in 1452, the Gutenberg bible was published.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Skydivers create a record-breaking formation above Perris, Calif., Tuesday. Two-hundred-and-two skydivers from around the world set the record when they all linked up thousands of feet above Southern California. The group formed the largest sequential skydiving formation. Craig O’Brien via AP

A woman with a pram walks past a street art installation in Astana, Kazakhstan, Wednesday. Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters

Market Closes for September 30^th, 2015

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canada stocks rose a second day as markets around the world rebounded to pare losses in the worst quarter for equities since 2011.

     Canadian shares added 2.1 percent, led by gains among banks and health-care companies. Drugmakers Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. and Concordia Healthcare Corp. snapped a four-day slide sparked by greater scrutiny on drug pricing.

     Global equities have tumbled in the third quarter amid rising concern that a slowdown in Chinese growth will spread to economies around the world at the same time that the U.S. central bank is considering raising interest rates. Commodities have been hardest hit as China is the world’s leading consumer. Stocks ended the quarter with a rally as some of the period’s biggest tumblers found favor.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 270 points to 13,306.96 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the most in two weeks, after slumping to an October 2013 low Monday. The gauge has declined 4 percent in September. It’s down 8.6 percent in the quarter that ended Wednesday and has tumbled 14 percent from an April peak.

     Canada’s economy grew 0.3 percent in July, ahead of median analysts’ estimates for a 0.2 percent increase. The world’s 11th largest economy is poised to rebound this quarter after contracting in the first half, weakened by a drop in commodity prices, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz predicts. Auto- parts manufacturers Magna International Inc. and Linamar Corp. jumped at least 3.7 percent to lead consumer discretionary stocks higher.

     The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks a basket of prices from live cattle to gold, added 0.3 percent for a second day of gains. The gauge has plunged 14 percent this quarter.

Copper climbed as much as 4.5 percent to cut the biggest quarterly slump in four years. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. climbed 5.2 percent to pare its drop in the three months to 70 percent.

     Canadian equities are among the worst-performing markets in the developed world this year with a 9.1 percent slide, led by declines among raw-materials and energy producers of at least 24 percent.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson and Kate Garber

     (Bloomberg) — For traders who suffered through the worst quarter for equities in four years, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s best rally in three weeks Wednesday was little more than a token consolation.

     Investors targeted their buying in some of the third quarter’s most-battered companies, with energy, raw-material and health-care shares among the leaders of the S&P 500’s 10 main groups after falling the most since June. All 10 industries in the benchmark advanced today, while a gauge of volatility had its steepest decline in more than a week.

     “We’re getting a snapback in some of the beaten-down names, particularly in biotech, and I think that’s to be expected after the beating they took,” said Lew Piantedosi, vice president of growth equities at Eaton Vance Management in Boston, where he helps oversee almost $14 billion. “There also could be some end- of-the-quarter window dressing going on today.”

     Investors should expect between $21 billion and $26 billion in buying of equities and some selling of bonds as pension-fund managers rebalance their portfolios at the end of the quarter, Boris Rjavinski, a strategist at UBS AG, wrote in a Sept. 25 report.

     The S&P 500 Index climbed 1.9 percent to 1,920.03 at 4 p.m. in New York, the most since Sept. 8. The measure ended the quarter down 6.9 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 235.57 points, or 1.5 percent, to 16,284.70. The Dow lost 7.6 percent since June ended. The Nasdaq Composite Index surged 2.3 percent today, while the Russell 2000 Index advanced 1.6 percent to halt eight days of losses.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index has closed above 20 for the past 28 sessions, the longest streak since January 2012. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX fell 8.7 percent Wednesday to 24.50, the most in seven sessions. About 8.5 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 16 percent above the three-month average.

     Mixed messages on Federal Reserve interest-rate policy combined with worries of a China slowdown sent the S&P 500 to consecutive monthly declines while creating the most turbulent period for stocks in years. The benchmark is down 9.9 percent from its record set in May, and came within five points Tuesday of its 2015 closing low reached in August. This quarter’s retreat has wiped almost $11 trillion off the value of global shares.

     The S&P 500 slumped 2.6 in September, and posted its first back-to-back quarterly decline in four years. Energy and raw- material companies were the third quarter’s worst performers, plunging more than 17 percent amid concern that weakness in China will curb demand for commodities and crimp global growth.

     Trading within raw-materials Wednesday was similar to the broader market. Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc. led gains, up 6.4 percent while also posting the steepest drop since June among materials companies, down 48 percent. Chesapeake Energy Corp. climbed 8 percent today to lead the energy group, while capping a 34 percent quarterly retreat, its biggest since 2008.

     Among other recently hard-hit stocks, semiconductors in the S&P 500 advanced the most in three weeks today amid their biggest quarterly swoon in three years. Auto-related companies rose for a second day as a selloff sparked by Volkswagen AG’s emissions scandal abated. Delphi Automotive Plc and General Motors Co. added more than 2.9 percent.

     Biotechnology stocks halted a selloff that sent the former high-fliers into a bear market. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index rose 4.5 percent Wednesday, after its longest losing streak since October 2008. The group had slumped 20 percent during the stretch, and is down 24 percent from an all-time high in July.

     Biotechs had run up 56 percent to their July high from an October 2014 low. The group has weighed on the Russell 2000 Index, which fell to an 11-month low Tuesday amid its longest string of losses in more than nine years.

     Amid today’s biotech rebound, Biogen Inc. and Amgen Inc. gained at least 3.2 percent. As evidence of the severity of their recent declines, Biogen posted its biggest quarterly slide — 28 percent — in 10 years, while Amgen had its worst performance since 2010.

     While stocks rallied Wednesday, investors waiting for an all-clear sign may need to brace for more drama. Strategas Research Partners LLC points out that the S&P 500 has a messy history of bounce attempts before settling on an October bottom, with jerky markets lingering after steep August declines in 2011, 1998 and 1990. In each case, a recovery only emerged after the initial low was undercut by as much as 3.8 percent a month or so later.

     “I think the U.S. economy is on the right track, and the equity markets will turn around and have a strong last quarter of the year,” said Andrew Brenner, the head of international fixed income for National Alliance Capital Markets. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see stocks bottom the first full week of October. Then I think we’ll probably do OK between now and the end of the year because I believe the U.S. economy is doing just fine.”                       

     The U.S. equity benchmark is down 3.8 percent since the Federal Reserve held back from raising interest rates on Sept. 17, citing global market turmoil and a slowdown in China as reasons for standing pat. Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, have since suggested that the U.S. economy is sturdy enough to handle higher rates this year. Traders aren’t convinced, as they price in a 41 percent chance of higher borrowing costs in December, and about 50 percent odds of an increase by January.

     As policy makers closely watch the strength of labor markets for potential cues on when to raise rates, a report today showed companies stepped up hiring in September, indicating the job market is standing firm in the face of weaker global demand.

     The September jobs report issued by the Labor Department Friday may show private businesses added about 200,000 employees after a 140,000 increase in August, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate probably held at 5.1 percent, the lowest since April 2008.

     Among shares moving on corporate news, Ralph Lauren Corp. jumped nearly 14 percent, the most in more than nine years as Ralph Lauren steps down as chief executive. He will hand the reins to Stefan Larsson, a rising retail star credited with reviving Gap Inc.’s Old Navy brand. Gap lost 5.7 percent to a three-year low.

     Advance Auto Parts Inc. closed at an all-time high, up 11 percent. Activist investor Starboard Value LP confirmed its 3.7 percent stake in the auto-parts retailer, and said opportunities exist “to create substantial value for all shareholders.”

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

My work will be finished if I succeed in carrying conviction to the human family,

that every man or woman, however weak in body,

is the guardian of his or her self-respect and liberty, and that this defence prevails,

though the world be against the individual resister.

Mahatma Gandhi

As ever,

Carolann

Science is organized knowledge.  Wisdom is organized life.

                                        -Immanuel Kant, 1724-1804

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7