Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday. St, Michael’s Day, Michaelmas.
September 29, 1978: Pope John Paul I was found deceased in his Vatican apartment a little more than one month after becoming head of the Roman Catholic Church. Go to article.
Miguel de Cervantes, writer, b. 1547.
Horatio Nelson, nave hero, b. 1758.
Enrico Fermi, physicist, b. 1901.
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PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Kishoreganj, Bangladesh
The Baherbali Model high school in the haor wetlands. For nearly nine months of the year the school is surrounded by water, and boats become the only means of reaching the building
Photograph: Syed Mahabubul Kader/Zuma/Shutterstock
Eagles, Donalds and bubbly: Ryder Cup 2025
A more serene scene of Bethpage.
Photograph: James Marsh/Shutterstock
Queenstown, New Zealand
Wingfoiler Bryan McGlynn glides on the waters of Lake Wakatipu
Photograph: Sanka Vidanagama/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for September 29th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46316.07 | +68.78 |
| +0.15% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6661.21 | +17.51 |
| +0.26% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22591.16 | +107.09 |
| +0.48% | ||
| TSX | 29971.91 | +210.63 |
| +0.71% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 45043.75 | -311.24 |
| -0.69% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26622.88 | +498.68 |
| +1.89% | ||
| SENSEX | 80364.94 | -61.52 |
| -0.08% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9299.84 | +15.01 |
| +0.16% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.183 | 3.226 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.631 | 3.669 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1387 | 4.1755 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7037 | 4.7487 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7186 | 0.7170 |
| US $ |
1.3915 | 1.3947 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6321 | 0.6127 |
| US $ |
1.1728 | 0.8526 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3769.85 | 3730.75 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 65.72 | 65.72 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1987, Charles Schwab launched its IPO, selling 8 million shares of stock to the public at an original price of $16.50 apiece. Just 20 days later, the crash of 1987 hit. The stock market plunged 23% in a single day, and Schwab’s stock was hammered down to $6.50 a share. The stock has returned over 52,000% since then.
Carry on any enterprise as if all future success depended on it. – Armand Jean du Plessis “Cardinal Richelieu”, 1585-1642.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.7%, or 210.63 to 29,971.91 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on Sept. 19.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 144 of 213 shares rose, while 67 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.2%.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 34.9%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 12%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.9%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 34.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.15% compared with 7.03% in the previous session and the average of 8.33% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology | 123.2631| 4.3| 9/0
Materials | 56.6093| 1.1| 42/9
Financials | 30.8982| 0.3| 19/5
Industrials | 15.8259| 0.5| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 11.8468| 1.2| 10/0
Utilities | 4.1888| 0.4| 12/2
Health Care | 3.8303| 4.7| 3/1
Communication Services | 2.2065| 0.3| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 0.8430| 0.1| 3/6
Real Estate | 0.4153| 0.1| 16/2
Energy | -39.3200| -0.8| 6/32
Shopify | 102.8000| 6.2| 24.9| 35.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 15.5500| 1.9| -13.3| 106.5
Constellation | Software | 14.8400| 2.9| 64.4| -15.3
Suncor | -7.7930| -1.6| -46.5| 14.0
Canadian Natural | Resources | -7.8760| -1.2| -52.2| 1.5
Barrick Mining | -23.1100| -4.0| 31.1| 106.9
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out another record close on Monday, its first in a week, as Rosenberg Research said, “equity markets are frothing, and central banks are committed enablers” before adding “there is no reliable method or quick formula for calling the turn in a FOMO-driven market”.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day up 210.63 points or 0.7% at 29,9971.91, with most sectors higher and Healthcare leading the way in rising 7.6%.
Cannabis stocks were higher after U.S. president Donald Trump endorsed the benefits of CBD for seniors.
Curaleaf (CURA.TO) jumped near 35%.
Capping gains, Energy was down near 1.5%.
According to Dow Jones Market Data and FactSet, going into today’s trading day the TSX was down near 0.6% from its record close of 29,958.98 on Sept. 22.
It was up 32.2% from its 2025 closing low of 22,506.90 on April 8, up 4.2% month to date; and up more than 20% year to date.
On broader markets, Research Economist Mehmet Beceren at Rosenberg Research published a note entitled ‘Will the Exuberance Engine Stall? Three Key Signals to Watch’ in which he said “equity markets are frothing, and central banks are committed enablers”. While writing with the United States in particular focus, he noted the debate over a growing stock bubble is gaining traction, but complacency is also taking root under the Fed’s easing cycle.
“FOMO (fear of missing out) dominates the market, and few can afford to sit it out,” Beceren said.
He noted there are many comparisons to past bubbles for timing a reversal, but there is no reliable method or quick formula for calling the turn in a FOMO-driven market.
“Each cycle is different, yet they rhyme, especially on how the narrative develops and how sources of leverage provide the primary fuel,” he added.
Beceren said: “A compelling technological breakthrough story, easy monetary policy, and opportunistic excessive leverage built up via some seemingly smart financial innovations are the three main ingredients of a “one big bullish buying” spree in the financial markets. That pattern repeats itself consistently in every boom-bust cycle.”
He added: “When we look at the historical data on market cycles, big reversals may seem to be predictable by a set of macro indicators — but that only works in retrospect.
By the time the underlying financial issues become visible in the macro data, it is usually too late.
Therefore, investors should pay close attention to micro developments in areas of the economy that are fueling the financial leverage engine which might sputter in the future.
Local cash flow problems and sequential contagion through the tightening credit channel are the key components.
One needs to follow micro developments in certain areas for the smoke signals.”
In this cycle, Beceren recommends focusing on three key indicators that might be the most relevant for the high-powered exuberance engine: crypto-driven leverage and crypto-treasury mania; AI-driven capex and bond supply; and the long yields.
Elsewhere, Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted stocks are “generally not as expensive” as the 25 times S&P 500 Index price to earnings (P/E) multiple would suggest.
“With full valuations,” it said, “we expect equities to be driven by robust-earnings growth rather than multiple expansion through year-end 2026.
We would view meaningful pullbacks as opportunities to add exposure to equities.”
Among individual stocks Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO, TD), Canada’s second-largest bank by market value, was up 0.7% and hit a fresh 52-week high as it released a long-awaited presentation to investors that reintroduced financial targets suspended last year and laid out plans to further cut costs and return capital to shareholders, as The Wall Street Journal reported.
“While our business is strong, we are committed to regaining leading performance,” President and Chief Executive Raymond Chun said in slides with his presentation.
TD had suspended financial targets including earnings guidance late last year as it reviewed its business options following a U.S. settlement stemming from lapses in its anti-money-laundering controls in the United States and Canada.
Ironically then, Canada’s consumer-finance regulator today hit TD with a separate C$5.5 million fine for errors that led to customers overpaying interest and principal costs.
For the 2026 fiscal year, The WSJ noted, TD said it is targeting annual growth in adjusted earnings per share of 6-8% and an adjusted return on equity of about 13%.
MT Newswires Canada noted it also targets a CET1 Ratio of 13%; Adjusted Expense Growth of 3-4%; and a PCL ratio of 40-50 basis points.
The bank said it expects to return some C$15 billion to shareholders in the next fiscal year, helped by money raised from the sale of its stake in Charles Schwab.
Of that sum $8 billion will be returned via share buybacks and $7 billion in common dividends.
This is after returning about $13.4 billion through buybacks and dividends in the current year that concludes at the end of October.
In the medium term, The WSJ noted, the bank said it was aiming for adjusted per-share earnings growth of 7-10% by fiscal 2029 and an adjusted return on equity of about 16%.
The WSJ also noted restructuring and other efforts are expected to deliver between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in annualized cost savings over the medium term, including about $1.1 billion the bank expects to save in the 2027 to 2028 years.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon Monday on strong safe haven buying ahead of a likely shutdown of the U.S. government at midnight on Tuesday, while the dollar weakened.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$46.40 to US$3,855.40 per ounce, topping the Sept. 23 record close of US$3,815.70.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply lower on reports OPEC+ plans to increase production again in November, adding to concerns the market is becoming oversupplied as the cartel continues to look to boost its market share and price competitors out of the market.
WTI oil for November delivery closed down US$2.27 to settle at US$63.45 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down US$2.44 to US$67.69.
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — Stocks posted modest gains on Monday as concerns mounted about a looming US government shutdown possibly delaying the release of key labor-market data that could provide clues about how fast the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates.
Treasury yields fell across the curve.
The S&P 500 ended the session 0.3% higher.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4% after climbing nearly 1% earlier.
The Bloomberg dollar index pared earlier losses after pending home sales for August jumped to the highest level in five months.
The US Treasury 10-year yield declined to 4.14% — shutdowns are typically associated with gains for bonds because of their potential to restrain the economy.
Gold, a safe-haven asset, hit a record.
Investors are worried that the threat of a US government shutdown could hinder some crucial data releases that they require to discern how the US economy is doing.
That includes Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which would offer details on how the labor market is holding up and help the Fed decide how many more times to cut rates this year.
“Given the importance of the job market to the Fed’s rate- cutting decisions, risk that the September unemployment report could be delayed could add to the market’s anxiety over the direction of policy,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab.
Uncertainty around trade policies also persists as Trump said he would levy new tariffs to boost the domestic film and furniture industries through a pair of sweeping — yet confusing — plans.
Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote that investors should be mindful that the inflationary impact of tariffs is not properly seen in numbers just yet.
“Further tax hikes — such as the 100% pharmaceuticals levy announced last week — are likely to add pricing pressures,” she said.
Separately, economists rejected Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran’s first major policy speech, in which he argued that the Trump administration’s policies have significantly lowered the level of interest rates needed to guard against inflation.
Miran still doubled down on his stance, saying the Fed risks damaging the economy by not moving rapidly to cut interest rates.
Apart from Friday’s jobs report, there’s also the JOLTs report releasing on Tuesday that will offer a picture on job openings while Wednesday’s data will shed light on company hiring.
Strategists said the recent negative revisions and downtrend in jobs numbers will raise the stakes for Friday’s release.
“We could be set for some notable volatility around these prints going forward as the breakeven payroll rate now seems to be around or under 50,000 a month,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG.
“We are not really conditioned to negative prints being within that margin of error, so reactions to such prints may be not rational.”
On Monday, investors also heard from a handful of Fed speakers. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that while he’s open to further rate cuts, policymakers should move carefully, since inflation is still running above target.
New York Fed President John Williams, on the other hand, said inflation risks have come down, but those for employment have moved up.
He didn’t indicate whether he might support another rate cut when policymakers next gather in late October.
Looming Shutdown
Top congressional leaders will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House a day before federal funding would expire if the two parties can’t agree on a short-term spending bill.
The bill would only fund the government until mid-November and must pass before Oct. 1.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A record run in stocks has proven formidable against the scare of shutdowns, which explains why investors are hardly spooked by the latest threat of government closure.
In past instances of either an actual or threatened shutdown, the S&P 500 did get hit momentarily.
Yet any impact tends to be short- lived and has hardly stopped the index from eventually reaching all-time highs.”
—Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Global Head of Equities, UBS Global Wealth Management, urges investors to look past shutdown fears and pay attention to other market drivers, such as the Fed’s path, strong corporate earnings and robust AI capex.
“We continue to prefer quality fixed income, particularly those with medium-term maturities, which we believe offers a compelling combination of income and resilience in the event of slower growth,” Hoffmann-Burchardi said.
Valuations
Equities investors have recently been irked about valuations being too high, prompting them to ditch stocks for a few sessions last week.
But a growing number of Wall Street analysts are now advising that it may be time to forget what you thought you knew about price-to-earnings ratios, as the average multiple has steadily jumped higher over the course of decades.
In key company news, Electronic Arts Inc. has agreed to sell itself in the largest leveraged buyout on record to a group of investors that includes a firm managed by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1727
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3435
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 148.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $114,314.98
* Ether rose 3.5% to $4,193.83
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.8% to $63.20 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.8% to $3,828.55 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Eman Abouhassira, Isabelle Lee and Alexandra Semenova.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Our greatest foes, and whom we must chiefly combat, are within. -Miguel de Cervantes, 1547-1616.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com