Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.
September 26, 1904: Earl Grey is named British Governor-General of Canada. Go to article.
September 26, 1960: First televised presidential debate.
September 26, 1983: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer, correctly identifies a missile warning as a false alarm, preventing a potential nuclear war.
Johnny Appleseed, farmer, b. 1774.
T.S. Eliot, poet, b. 1888.
George Gershwin, composer, b. 1898
John Smiley, writer, b. 1949.
He just became the first to ski down Everest without bottled oxygen
A 37-year-old professional skier just carved his name into history with a daring Everest descent. See the video here.
Photo gallery: Dramatic images capture the world’s storms
These “storm” images were shortlisted for the prestigious Prix Pictet, a global award recognizing excellence in photography and sustainability.
A medical breakthrough
A gene therapy trial was found to slow the progression of Huntington’s disease, marking a significant step toward a potential first genetic treatment for the brain condition.
Katie Couric spoofs Sydney Sweeney
Katie Couric spoofed Sydney Sweeney’s controversial denim ad to raise awareness about colon cancer.
FIFA unveils mascots for 2026 World Cup
The mascots set to star at FIFA’s 2026 World Cup are Clutch the Bald Eagle, Maple the Moose and Zayu the Jaguar. See them here.
5: That’s the number of years that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been sentenced to serve in prison. A Paris court on Thursday found him guilty of criminal conspiracy in an alleged scheme to finance his 2007 campaign with funds from Libya.
The 45th Ryder Cup gets underway
Launched in 1927, the Ryder Cup is a biennial tournament that pits the best golfers from the US and Europe against each other. Here’s what you need to know before they tee off today.
“I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but ever since Trump got back into office, he’s been waging a campaign of vengeance against his enemies who he believes have been trying to take him down,” Stephen Colbert said on Thursday.
“Now he’s focused all of his rage on the one foe who refused to take him up, and that is the U.N.’s escalator.” — STEPHEN COLBERT
| 1 million-year-old skull from China holds clues to the origins of Neanderthals, Denisovans and humans |
Reconstruction of a 1 million-year-old skull shows that early human groups split and diversified quickly. Read More.
Rare wampum beads discovered at 17th-century colony in Newfoundland.
Archaeologists in Newfoundland have discovered seven tiny beads known as wampum that are made from seashells. They may be the first ever found in the province. Read More.
| ‘We thought it was a problem with the instrument’: Scientists shocked by rare ‘Einstein cross’ with a surprise in the center |
An image of a distant galaxy warped by a cosmic magnifying glass reveals a massive blob of dark matter hiding in plain sight. Read More.
| Scientific breakthrough leads to ‘fluorescent biological qubit’ — it could mean turning your cells into quantum sensors |
Fluorescent proteins can be turned into qubits within cells and could give us a deeper understanding of biology at the nanoscale level. Read More.
| 95 million-year-old ‘tiny, tiny skull’ from never-before-seen crocodile-like creature discovered in Montana |
Researchers have described a whole new family of extinct crocodyliforms based on the fossilized remains of a single teenage croc named Elton discovered in the Blackleaf Formation. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Kigali, Rwanda
Alberto Carlo Monti of the Czech Republic competes in the men’s under-23 individual time trial during the 98th UCI Cycling World Championships
Photograph: David Ramos/Getty
Santa Cruz County, Arizona, US
Trump is forging ahead with a new section of border wall in San Rafael Valley, which will threaten wildlife in a remote area where many rare animals – but few people – roam
Photograph: Cheney Orr/Reuters
atwalk strut … Magellanic penguins head for the sea, watched by an admiring crowd, after their release from a rehabilitation clinic in Punta del Este at the southern tip of Uruguay
Photograph: Matilde Campodonico/AP
Market Closes for September 26th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46247.29 | +299.97 |
| +0.65% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6643.70 | +38.98 |
| +0.59% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22484.07 | +99.37 |
| +0.44% | ||
| TSX | 29761.28 | +29.30 |
| +0.10% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 45354.99 | -399.94 |
| -0.87% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26128.20 | -356.48 |
| -1.35% | ||
| SENSEX | 80426.46 | -733.22 |
| -0.90% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9284.83 | +70.85 |
| +0.77% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.226 | 3.224 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.669 | 3.671 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1755 | 4.1698 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7487 | 4.7477 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7170 | 0.7173 |
| US $ |
1.3947 | 1.3941 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6321 | 0.6127 |
| US $ |
1.1731 | 0.8544 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3730.75 | 3761.60 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 65.72 | 65.71 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 2001, Enron CEO Kenneth Lay led an online employee chat in which he urged the company’s workers to “talk up the stock.” He declared: “My personal belief is that Enron stock is an incredible bargain at current prices, and we will look back a couple of years from now and see the great opportunity that we currently have.” It soon filed the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 29,761.28 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.3%.
Today, 131 of 213 shares rose, while 79 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.2%
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 33.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.03% compared with 7.06% in the previous session and the average of 8.59% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 94.8249| 1.9| 48/3
Financials | 19.4602| 0.2| 13/11
Utilities | 6.2016| 0.6| 8/5
Communication Services | 2.9530| 0.5| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 2.6496| 0.3| 6/3
Real Estate | 1.2382| 0.2| 15/3
Health Care | 0.4809| 0.6| 3/1
Energy | -5.1030| -0.1| 21/18
Consumer Staples | -6.4792| -0.6| 3/7
Industrials | -14.3725| -0.4| 7/21
Information Technology | -72.5418| -2.5| 2/7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 17.0300| 2.2| -27.8| 102.6
Bank of Montreal | 7.6520| 0.9| -27.6| 30.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | 7.2890| 1.5| -4.7| 87.9
Couche-Tard | -4.0140| -1.0| -27.2| -8.9
Constellation Software | -32.1800| -6.0| 161.8| -17.7
Shopify | -38.8600| -2.3| 20.8| 27.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for the first time in four sessions Friday, albeit modestly, as Canada’s gross domestic product rebounded in July though momentum is seen at risk, while, BMO raised its year-end target for the exchange to 31,500 and earning per share (EPS) target to $1,650 and National Bank left its asset mix unchanged this month with the index having “performed exceptionally well” since June.
Buoyed by higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 29.3 points to 29,761.28 with most sectors higher, even if none were up by even as much as 0.6%. Info Tech was down 2%.
National Bank noted the Canadian economy rebounded in July, growing 0.2% after edging down 0.1% in June, marking a first increase to GDP in four months.
This was above consensus expectations for the month for a 0.1% lift.
National noted the Statistics Canada advance estimates suggest GDP was essentially flat in August, as gains in wholesale and retail trade were offset by declines in mining, manufacturing, and transportation.
Taken together with the July print, National said, growth is on track for only a modest expansion in the third quarter following a significant pullback in Q2.
“While July’s rebound offers some relief, the economy remains vulnerable, with business investment and hiring intentions still subdued.
The latest easing by the Bank of Canada will not be sufficient to reinvigorate the Canadian economy in the short term as the lack of visibility for businesses should continue to be a constraint on the economy.
We will have to wait until early November to assess the extent to which the federal government will be able to counterbalance the current headwinds,” National noted.
Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, noted in his latest ‘Canadian Strategy Snapshot’ the stock market recovery that “no one believed, was widely panned and even more loudly doubted” when BMO first published its view that Canada was entering a prolonged period of outperformance relative to the United States in mid-2024, has reached heights that “even we thought were lofty”.
Yes, Belski said, the TSX has eclipsed BMO’s base case of 28,500 in part to surprising economic strength and sustained gold momentum.
“However, MACRO does not lead — FUNDAMENTALS do,” he added.
Belski said that is why BMO has been prioritizing the “”improving and consistent fundamental conditions” of Canadian stocks with respect to earnings growth and revisions, operating performance, cash, and yes, themes within the bank’s Canadian strategy publications and actual equity portfolios that it oversees.
“After all,” he added, “the stock market is a market (for) stocks – and STOCKS are NOT the ECONOMY.”
“This fact has never been more prevalent in our view than the past two years in Canada.
To that end, we are raising our 2025 year end price target for the TSX to 31,500 from 28,500, which implies another 6% return in the final three months of the year.
Furthermore, we are raising our 2025 EPS target to 1,650 from 1,600 thanks to the broadening positive revision cycle that our models have shown over the last six months,” Belski said.
Belski added: “This now positions the TSX to exhibit low double digit earnings growth by the end of 2025, implying a higher earnings multiple that is likely to remain above the long term historical average.
After all, you pay for what is working — and Canadian equities are working.”
BMO still believes Canadian outperformance versus U.S. exchanges will moderate.
However, Belski said, Canada is well positioned to at least keep pace with the U.S. into year end and ultimately outperform on a year over year basis by one of the widest margins on record.
With its revised forecasts, BMO now expects the TSX to outperform the S&P 500 in local currency by over 8% on an annual basis this year, marking one of the strongest outperformances since 1990.
In fact, only in 1993, 1999, and 2005 were years when the TSX was up double digits and outperformed the S&P 500 by over 8%.
Meanwhile, National Bank in its Monthly Equity Monitor for September and October 2025 asked: Who would have thought that a so-called trade war would fuel a worldwide equity surge with no clear losers? “We certainly didn’t,” it said, but added it’s worth stressing that this isn’t a textbook trade war.
“So far,” National added, “there’s been little to no retaliation against Washington, meaning no escalation of inflation via second-round effects.”
National Bank noted the U.S. equity risk premium is now deeper in negative territory than at any point in a generation.
It said: “Resilient inflation and limited rate relief could pose risks to U.S. equities in the months ahead, particularly with valuations already stretched well above historical norms.
Strong corporate profits have so far helped justify these multiples, but margin pressures could build if cost inflation persists or if tariff retaliation materializes.”
The S&P/TSX, National Bank noted, broke new ground in September, climbing above 30,000 to a fresh record high, while year to date gains now exceed 20% after just three quarters, the strongest showing at this point in the year since 2009.
More specifically, National noted, this record performance has been powered by a 97% surge in gold stocks so far this year.
Thanks to this outsized gain, gold now accounts for just over 11% of the S&P/TSX market capitalization, the highest share since its 11.5% peak in 2012 and well above the historical average of 4.7% since the mid-1970s.
National Bank is leaving its asset mix unchanged this month after its last adjustment in June, when the bank modestly reduced its equity underweight by trimming fixed income and moving Canadian equities to overweight.
It said the S&P/TSX has performed exceptionally well since then, and valuations now sit above their historical norm.
“But there’s room for more if the November 4 budget delivers on Ottawa’s pro-business promises and if trade talks with Washington advance,” the bank added.
Of commodities, gold traded higher as a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month, but matched expectations, clearing the way for another interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.
Gold for December delivery was seen up $38.00 to US$3,809.10 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate rose to the highest in nearly two months as traders focus on geopolitical risk with Ukraine expanding its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed up $0.74 to settle at $65.72 per barrel, the highest since Aug.4, while November Brent crude was up $0.52 to $69.94.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying lifted stocks in the final stretch of the week after a key inflation gauge matched expectation, giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room to address labor-market cooling.
Following a three-day slide, the S&P 500 rebounded.
The response to the data was fairly muted in the bond market, and swap traders continued to price in around 40 basis points of Fed cuts before the end of 2025.
The dollar fell.
A report Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the core measure remained at 2.9% – above the Fed’s target.
“Despite another month of elevated inflation, today’s PCE report was in-line across the board,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“That gives investors some relief that the current status quo will remain intact, and that the Fed will remain on track to cut rates two more times this year.”
Kenwell also says that the Fed’s 2% inflation goal seems to be a “low priority” right now, with policymakers trying to restore balance between jobs and inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a cooling labor market to explain why officials lowered rates in September, while remaining vigilant on inflation.
“Inflation may not be reversing, but it’s not reaccelerating,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Barring a major upside surprise from next week’s jobs report, the Fed should remain on course to deliver another rate cut in late October.”
Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin told Bloomberg Television that while unemployment and inflation have both moved away from the goals, he sees only limited risk of further deterioration.
Despite a slide in consumer sentiment, Friday’s data also showed US personal spending rose by more than forecast — illustrating resilience.
“Today’s data reinforces yesterday’s ‘gee-the-economy-is- much-stronger-than-anyone-thought’ narrative, but at the same time, there’s less to worry about on the inflation front,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
Actions speak louder than words and consumers continue to spend, which is why corporate profits continue to exceed expectations, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“The bull market is going to continue as long as consumers remain employed and continue to spend, and corporations are able to adjust and adapt to the conditions on the ground,” he noted.
“Following a three-day pullback in the broader market, this is good enough to pull buyers off the sidelines,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“Today’s PCE calms some of those worries. No news is good news.”
While inflation likely gets the headline in today’s data, the income and spending numbers may be more important, according to Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“This likely sustains strong consumption and possibly leads to better than expected third-quarter growth,” he noted.
At Janus Henderson Investors, Greg Wilensky says continued strength in overall economic activity and a Fed that remains likely to lower rates will likely provide support for risk assets.
That’s despite valuations that, on the surface, appear expensive, he said.
The S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio recently touched a high of 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dot-com bust and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed reduced rates to near zero.
While cutting rates in non-recessionary environments tends to be good for US stocks, markets could use a bit of a breather as we enter the fourth quarter and as certain pockets of the market are seeing some euphoria, noted Kenwell at eToro.
“Should a pullback materialize in October, it could be the dip that refreshes the rally and gives investors a more attractive entry point into the market,” he said.
After one of the strongest stretches for equities since April, the S&P 500 is showing natural signs of fatigue, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide. Yet positioning and sentiment remain far from extreme, suggesting investors are more cautious than complacent.
“With fiscal stimulus, a potential dovish Fed shift, and a softer dollar all looming as catalysts, any near-term test of technical support should be seen less as a reversal and more as setting the stage for the next leg of the bull run,” he said.
Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching news regarding the funding stalemate in Congress.
President Donald Trump on Friday shrugged off the threat of the first US government shutdown in nearly seven years and moved to cast the blame for any disruption on Democrats.
In the event of a federal government shutdown, the September jobs report — due next Friday — will be delayed if the Department of Labor adheres to an operational contingency plan spelled out earlier this year.
“Government shutdowns tend to inject volatility but typically don’t have a lasting market impact,” wrote Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services.
The benchmark S&P 500 has barely moved on average during the last 20 shutdowns, according to Truist.
“The looming government shutdown may spark short-term volatility, although historically government shutdowns are not significant market-moving events as they tend to be averted last minute or resolved quickly,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
As we wrap up September, stocks are defying their historical weakness, Bellin noted, “although that doesn’t mean that October will be smooth sailing, as October is a month with a volatile reputation.”
Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has developed a ChatGPT-like iPhone app to help test and prepare for a long-anticipated overhaul of Siri coming next year, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Electronic Arts Inc. is in talks to be taken private by a consortium led by Silver Lake Management and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Intel Corp. and GlobalFoundries Inc. rallied after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce US reliance on chips made overseas.
* The $14 billion valuation that the Trump administration has estimated for TikTok’s US business falls well below projections, surprising investors who say a deal at that price would be a bargain for potential buyers including Larry Ellison’s Oracle Corp. and partner Silver Lake Management LLC.
* Meta Platforms Inc. will soon offer paid versions of Facebook and Instagram in the UK that will remove advertising from both platforms.
* Drugmakers rose as President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on branded and patented drug imports was greeted with a shrug by many investors — who are betting his exemptions for companies with US manufacturing will soften any blow.
* Shares of truck maker Paccar Inc. climbed as Trump announced new industry-specific tariffs that include a 25% levy on heavy trucks. Analysts say the company will benefit because it has significant US production.
* Trump on Friday intensified his campaign against Tylenol to include young kids, posting on his Truth Social that parents shouldn’t give children the drug “for virtually any reason.”
* Boeing Co. and the union representing striking defense workers have agreed to resume negotiations with a federal mediator in a bid to end a nearly eight-week work stoppage.
** Boeing will regain more powers from regulators to conduct final safety checks and issue airworthiness certificates for some 737 Max and 787 jets prior to delivery, easing restrictions put in place after a series of manufacturing lapses.
* Uber Technologies Inc. sees its grocery and retail deliveries growing faster than expected, underscoring the company’s effort to catch up with rival services from Instacart, DoorDash Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.
* PG&E Corp., which filed for bankruptcy in 2019 following devastating blazes, was upgraded to investment grade by Fitch Ratings after the California legislature boosted the size of a fire insurance fund.
* TeraWulf Inc. is expected to raise approximately $3 billion to support the build-out of its data centers via a structure supported by Google Inc., according to Patrick Fleury, the crypto miner’s finance chief.
* Switzerland’s government formally proposed giving UBS Group AG seven years to fully comply with higher capital requirements, confirming previous guidance.
* BMW AG is recalling at least 331,000 vehicles globally due to a defect in its starter motor, another such setback for the German carmaker that’s been hit by costly product flaws
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The latest data batch confirms that US consumers are taking labor-market headwinds in stride for now. That clears the path for stocks to push higher into year-end.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1706
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3408
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $109,200.89
* Ether rose 3.5% to $4,023.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.75%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.64%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $65.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,766.29 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
The role of a leader is to define reality and give hope. -Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com