Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
September 25, 1493: Christopher Columbus set sail from Cadiz, Spain, with a flotilla of 17 ships on his second voyage to the Western Hemisphere.
September 25, 1676: Greenwich Mean Time established.
September 25, 1905: Albert Einstein publishes his paper on special relativity, a breakthrough that redefined physics and altered humanity’s understanding of space and time.
William Faulkner, novelist, b. 1897.
Dmitri Shostakovich, composer, b. 1906.
Will Smiht, actor, b. 1968.
Catherine Zeta-Jones, actress, b. 1969.
| The James Webb telescope may have discovered a brand new class of cosmic object: the black hole star |
Using the James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers discovered an extreme version of “little red dots” dubbed “The Cliff.” Its light suggests that it could be a never-before-seen class of objects called a “black hole star.” Read More.
| 5,000-year-old stone tomb discovered in Spain is 43 feet long — and it holds many prehistoric burials |
A large, 5,000-year-old dolmen has been discovered by archaeologists in southern Spain. Read More.
| Scientists discover 85 ‘active’ lakes buried beneath Antarctica’s ice |
Data from ESA’s Cryosat-2 satellite has revealed 85 never-before-seen, active subglacial lakes buried beneath Antarctica’s ice — 58% more than were previously known. Read More.
| Abandoning daylight saving time could prevent over 300,000 stroke cases a year in the US, study claims |
Springing forward by an hour each March knocks the circadian rhythm out of alignment. A new model of the chronic health impacts argues for scrapping it entirely. Read More.
| In ‘Secrets of the Brain,’ Jim Al-Khalili explores 600 million years of brain evolution to understand what makes us human |
In his new BBC show, Jim Al-Khalili journeys through hundreds of millions of years of brain evolution. Live Science spoke to him about what he learned along the way and how this knowledge sheds new light on human cognition. Read More.
Kamala Harris kicks off book tour in New York City
Former Vice President Kamala Harris began her book tour on Wednesday, with both supporters and protesters in attendance.
‘World’s coolest’ neighborhoods named by Time Out
Coming in at number one is Jimbōchō, a corner of Tokyo known for its array of vintage bookstores. See the full list of the “world’s coolest” neighborhoods.
What it’s like to visit Babylon in 2025
Babylon was once an ancient wonder. Today, it’s a very different story.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Hitomi Tsuchiya, Japan – Fine art finalist
A turtle swims through an underwater aurora. “This image was taken near Mount Iwo, where the underwater aurora can be seen,” says Tsuchiya. “The volcano spews out iron-rich substances from above ground and from the ocean floor, creating these colours”
Alex Dawson, Mexico – Ocean adventure, third place
Divers explore the unique Yab Yum cave. Close to 100 metres in diameter and more than 70 metres deep, it is considered the largest water-filled sinkhole that has ever been documented
Wreath flowers (Lechenaultia macrantha)
The 2025 Bowness photography prize – in pictures
These are quite rare wildflowers that bloom in a circular pattern on the ground. This plant was shot in Pindar
Market Closes for September 25th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
45947.32 | -173.96 |
| -0.38% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6604.72 | -33.25 |
| -0.50% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22384.70 | -113.16 |
| -0.50% | ||
| TSX | 29731.98 | -24.97 |
| -0.08% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 45754.93 | +124.62 |
| +0.27% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26484.68 | -33.97 |
| -0.13% | ||
| SENSEX | 81159.68 | -555.95 |
| -0.68% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9213.98 | -36.45 |
| -0.39% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.224 | 3.204 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.671 | 3.674 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1698 | 4.1466 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7477 | 4.7507 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7173 | 0.7196 |
| US $ |
1.3941 | 1.3896 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6263 | 0.6148 |
| US $ |
1.1667 | 0.8571 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3761.60 | 3783.80 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 65.71 | 65.49 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1955, President Dwight D. Eisenhower suffered a heart attack and the stock market plunged by 6.6%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 29,731.98 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.3%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest drop, falling 15.5%.
Today, 98 of 213 shares fell, while 112 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.1%
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 33.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.06% compared with 7.16% in the previous session and the average of 8.73% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology | -95.1080| -3.1| 2/7
Financials | -9.7448| -0.1| 8/15
Consumer Staples | -6.1018| -0.6| 2/8
Real Estate | -2.8606| -0.6| 4/14
Health Care | -0.2600| -0.3| 2/2
Communication Services | 1.1091| 0.2| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 1.9346| 0.2| 4/5
Utilities | 4.8539| 0.5| 10/4
Industrials | 6.9426| 0.2| 16/13
Energy | 20.6136| 0.4| 27/12
Materials | 53.6676| 1.1| 33/17
Shopify | -58.6200| -3.3| -12.3| 30.7
Constellation Software | -34.2400| -6.0| 176.1| -12.5
Brookfield Corp | -14.6600| -1.5| -2.4| 15.5
Cameco | 12.1600| 3.5| 3.8| 61.6
Barrick Mining | 13.2200| 2.4| 7.2| 114.5
TD Bank | 16.4100| 1.3| -9.7| 43.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a third day on Thursday moving off its recent trend of regular record highs, on profit taking and as the attention of market watchers appears to be drifting back to economic concerns, with National Bank not expecting hiring to meaningfully pick up this year, which will only add to labor market slack.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 24.97 points to 29,731.98, even as most sectors were higher.
It added to a total of more than 200 points lost over the prior two sessions.
The index has dropped from Monday’s record close of 29,958.98, and from an intraday high above the 30,000-level touched on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Among sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 3.6% and Base Metals up near 1%.
In contrast, Info Tech was down 2.5% and Health Care down 1.3%.
Taylor Schleich, National Bank’s Director, Economics and Strategy, said the most insightful component of the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) released earlier today is not overall employment, given how backward looking it is.
Instead, National Bank focuses on job vacancies as they offer a read on labor demand and what hiring may look like in the future.
“Today’s data are not inspiring,” he said, noting vacant positions fell in July and are now down 12% from the end of 2024.
The vacancy rate, or the ratio of open jobs to total labor supply, fell to 2.6% versus 3.1% a year ago and 5.6% back in 2022.
“Note that this recent deterioration is more pronounced than in the U.S. where, despite the Fed’s worries, labour demand is near pre-COVID levels,” Schleich added.
Looked at another way, Schleich noted there were 3.3 unemployed Canadians fighting for each vacant position in July.
Outside of COVID, he said, “things haven’t looked this dire since early 2017”, when the national jobless rate was also around 7%.
According to Schleich, the key difference is that back then, the labor market was improving.
Today, it’s moving in the opposite direction.
Also, monetary policy looked a lot different then too.
In 2016, the BoC was fostering growth with a “very” accommodative policy rate (0.5%) while today, policy is more or less neutral.
“Suffice it to say,” Schleich said, “we’re not expecting hiring to meaningfully pick up this year which will only add to labour market slack.
And while the BoC had previously contended that labour market weakness is concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, that’s not really backed up by these data.
Goods producing (i.e, tariff-exposed) industries have seen vacancies dry up more (-18% Y/Y) but a 14% Y/Y drop in services sector openings doesn’t warrant the ‘resilient’ label that some had earlier applied to Canada.”
Schleich added: “When it comes to monetary policy, markets are pricing further easing which is warranted.
However, the next cut isn’t fully priced until January which is too late in our view.
We see higher odds of an October cut, and the likelihood of even more rate relief being needed is growing.”
Elsewhere, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Market, noted Quebec’s economy contracted 2.4% annualized in Q2, which is weaker than the 1.6% decline seen nationally.
He said this is no major surprise given that Quebec was always going to get hit relatively hard by U.S. tariffs, notably through exposure to steel and aluminum.
Kavcic added: “While we had already built a very tough Q2 into our 2025 outlook, there is some further downside risk to our call of just 0.7% growth in 2025.
That would leave Quebec at the weak end of the provincial growth table this year.”
Of commodities, gold had edged higher late midafternoon on Thursday, rising off a day-prior drop even as the dollar and treasury yields rose after U.S. initial jobless claims slowed last week and second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised higher. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $9.30 to US$3,777.40 per ounce, after falling off a record US$3,815.70 set on Tuesday.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a minor drop as traders took profits after prices rose to a three-week high amid Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil industry and an unexpected drop in the U.S. inventories last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.01 to $64.99 per barrel, edging down from the highest since Sept. 2, while November Brent crude was up $0.06 to $69.37.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell as valuation worries overshadowed data showing the economy is holding up.
The figures didn’t have much of an impact on Federal Reserve bets, but short-dated yields climbed.
Bitcoin sank.
Following a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 dropped for a third straight session, the longest slide in a month.
That’s despite data showing US gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years.
“We agree that the economy is strong and growing,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, “but a lot of that good news is already priced in.
Where we have our largest concern is with valuations.”
An over $15 trillion surge in equities from this year’s lows came on speculation that the economy is not sinking and the market will be bolstered by improving corporate profits and the artificial-intelligence boom.
As a result, the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to- earnings ratio recently touched a high of 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dot- com bust and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed reduced rates to near zero.
While the central bank’s focus has tilted toward the jobs market, traders will be closely watching Friday’s inflation report.
“Active investors will want to see an in-line or lower inflation result, keeping the Fed on pace for two more rate cuts in 2025,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“As much as investors want lower rates, a solid economy is more important.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, with most major groups down.
Two- year yields climbed six basis points to 3.66%.
The dollar rose.
The crypto slump intensified ahead of a $22 billion options expiry.
Inflation-adjusted GDP, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a revised 3.8% annualized pace.
That was stronger than the previously reported 3.3% advance and followed an outright contraction in the first quarter.
To Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management, Thursday’s GDP strength likely doesn’t change the Fed’s expected path of rate cuts, “since the data is backward looking.”
In fact, money markets only slightly reduced bets on rate cuts after the data, projecting about 40 basis points of Fed reductions before the year is over.
The decline in initial jobless claims to the lowest since July points to a labor market that — while cooling — has seen relatively limited layoffs.
Most companies are choosing to hold onto workers even as lingering economic uncertainty keeps a lid on hiring.
“There may be cracks in the labor market, but if today’s data is any indication, they haven’t widened recently,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Along with an upward revision to GDP, we’re seeing an economy that remains resilient despite an array of challenges.”
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the US central bank risks damage to the economy by not moving rapidly to lower interest rates.
“I don’t think the economy is about to crater,” Miran said Thursday on Bloomberg Surveillance.
But given the risks, “I would rather act proactively and lower rates as a result ahead of time, rather than wait for some giant catastrophe to occur,” he said.
The Fed led by Chair Jerome Powell lowered rates last week by a quarter percentage point, the first cut of 2025.
Miran dissented against the decision, favoring a half-point cut.
Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s top bank cop, said inflation is close enough to the central bank’s target to justify more rate cuts because the job market is weakening.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed continued concern about tariff-driven inflation and pushed back against any call for “front-loading” multiple rate cuts.
His Kansas City counterpart Jeff Schmid signaled the central bank may not need to cut again soon.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the US central bank should abandon the federal funds rate as its benchmark in implementing monetary policy, and consider an overnight rate tied to the more robust market for loans collateralized by US Treasuries.
Citadel’s Ken Griffin told CNBC he expects the Fed to cut its benchmark rate once more in 2025 as the central bank turns its focus to the labor market.
The Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace last month, offering policymakers some breathing room to address jobs cooling.
A report on Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the so-called core measure is seen holding at a still- elevated 2.9%.
“If we were to see an uptick, that could worry investors that the Fed’s rate cut expectations are too ambitious, and that they may need to establish more of a wait-and-see approach on rates,” said Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
The market is on tenterhooks waiting for the Fed’s next rate move, a crucial earnings season looms large, and the threat of a US government shutdown is growing more severe.
Add the specter of rising volatility to a list of worries investors need to contend with.
Since 1928, historical price swings in the S&P 500 in October have been about 20% greater than in other months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s derivatives team says.
“Are stocks ready for a breather, or dare we say, some selling pressure? The short answer is yes,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Investors should expect that some form of a breather or downturn in the market will come at some point.”
Meantime, Bespoke Investment Group noted that while the last few days have started to show some cracks in the market, sentiment was little changed based on the weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors.
Bullish sentiment remained unchanged at 41.7% while bearish sentiment dropped to 39.2% and neutral sentiment increased to 19.1%, the AAII tally showed.
The impending earnings season may get things moving.
Corporate chief financial officers’ optimism about the economy and their own company’s financial health rose in the third quarter, according to the latest CFO Survey.
‘Solid Footing’
Meantime, Barclays strategists said there’s limited risk to S&P 500 earnings related to disappointments over artificial- intelligence spending, with the AI investment theme “on solid footing.”
To Saglimbene at Ameriprise, fundamental dynamics heading into the fourth quarter, including the rate environment, appear stable and supportive of current stock levels.
He also believes profit conditions across S&P 500 companies remain favorable and durable.
“But expectations are high, and valuations largely reflect much of the ‘good news’ narrative today.
Thus, investors should be prepared for a few potential bumps in the road at some point,” Saglimbene said.
Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp., Silver Lake Management LLC, and the Abu Dhabi- based investment company MGX are in talks to invest in a US version of TikTok and receive board seats in the new venture, according to people familiar with the discussions.
* Amazon.com Inc. agreed to pay $2.5 billion in penalties and refunds and change its process for how to cancel its Prime subscription to settle a lawsuit by the US Federal Trade Commission.
* Microsoft Corp. disabled some use of its software by the Israeli military after an investigation spurred by news reports that the company’s products were involved in the surveillance of civilians.
* Apple Inc. has asked European Union antitrust watchdogs to scrap regulations intended to protect digital consumers, arguing they expose users to privacy risks and threaten to undermine innovation.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is set to face a charge sheet from the European Union for failing to adequately police illegal content, risking fines for violating the bloc’s content moderation rulebook.
* Alphabet Inc. trails behind a few other megacap technology companies in size, but the Google parent may be destined to overtake them given its strong position in artificial intelligence and other key sectors, according to MoffettNathanson.
* Intel Corp. was upgraded to neutral from sell at Seaport Global, which sees near-term upside for the chipmaker if it receives more direct investments.
* Starbucks Corp. said it will close stores and eliminate 900 jobs in a $1 billion restructuring effort as the company amps up a turnaround plan under new Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol.
* Eli Lilly & Co. halted a study of an experimental drug designed to prevent obesity patients from losing too much muscle, citing strategic business reasons it didn’t disclose.
* CarMax Inc.’s weaker-than-expected results showed deepening strain in the used-car market.
* CoreWeave Inc. has expanded its agreements to supply data center capacity to OpenAI by as much as $6.5 billion to $22.4 billion, the latest deal to underscore the immense demand for AI computing power.
* Two casino bids — MGM Resorts International’s proposal for a $2.3 billion expansion of its Empire City Casino in Yonkers, New York, and Genting Group’s pitch for a $5.5 billion addition to its Queens location — will advance to a state board after clearing a key vote by local advisory committees.
* Live Nation Entertainment Inc.’s Ticketmaster agreed to make certain changes to its ticketing business following the UK’s antitrust watchdog concerns that it risked misleading customers in last year’s sale of Oasis tickets.
* The Qatar Investment Authority is partnering with Blue Owl Capital Inc. to finance and invest in data centers, marking the sovereign wealth fund’s latest bet on the booming artificial intelligence sector.
* BP Plc said that oil demand is going to keep growing for the rest of this decade, rowing back on its prior projection that the high point could come as soon as this year.
* SAP SE has been hit by a European Union antitrust probe into whether the German software giant distorted competition for on- premise maintenance and support services related to a management program it sells.
* Accenture Plc said it expects US federal spending cuts on consultants to slow its growth next year after it beat expectations for revenue in the fourth quarter.
* Robert Bosch GmbH will cut about 13,000 additional jobs at its auto-parts business as rising competition and a sluggish European car market push the manufacturer into deeper restructuring.
* Brunello Cucinelli SpA tumbled after short seller Morpheus Research alleged the luxury Italian cashmere brand is misleading investors about its Russian business and engaging in “aggressive discounting.”
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The two-week decline in jobless claims stands to ease jitters about the labor market at a time when the Fed has already jumped to the rescue with an interest-rate cut. That further reinforces the idea that the central bank is easing into a soft landing, which historically benefits stocks and the dollar, but stands to hurt bonds.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1661
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3337
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 149.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.7% to $109,392.29
* Ether fell 6.1% to $3,913.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.77%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.76%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.66%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $65.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,746.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Let yourself be silently drawn by the stronger pull of what you truly love. –Rumi, 1207-1273.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com