September 22, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday Eve & the official first day of autumn.

On Sept. 22, 1862, President Abraham Lincoln issued the preliminary Emancipation Proclamation, declaring all slaves in rebel states should be free as of Jan. 1, 1863. Go to article »
1994: “Friends” a TV sitcom created by David Crane and Marta Kauffman debuts on NBC and continues for 10 seasons.  The series finale aired  on May 6, 2004, and was watched by around 52.5 million American viewers, making it the fifth most watched series finale n television history and the most watched television episode of the 2000.

Tired: Guitar Hero. Wired: Trombone Champ.

We still don’t know if Neanderthals made art.

Ghostly rings of Neptune shine in new James Webb Telescope images:  When it comes to planetary rings, Saturn is the undisputed poster child. But now a new contender enters the, er, ring — courtesy of a stunning new image taken by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).  In the new picture, released today (Sept. 21) by the European Space Agency (ESA), our solar system’s eighth planet Neptune shimmers like a glorious crystal ball, with a stack of gauzy rings wrapped magically around it.  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)

3,000-year-old gold funeral mask unearthed in noble’s tomb in China:  A gold funeral mask, thought to be more than 3,000 years old, has been discovered in the tomb of an ancient noble in the city of Zhengzhou in central China.  It’s one of the oldest gold objects ever found in central China, as contemporary treasures tend to be crafted from bronze and jade, raising questions about possible links to other early Chinese states where gold was more common.  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A standoff between police officers and demonstrators in St Petersburg
Photograph: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images

Alberta Whittle is a Barbadian-Scottish multimedia artist, researcher and curator. ‘One of the main reasons I wanted to make films was because I thought there weren’t enough images of people who looked like me – Caribbean people or Black people. I was searching for those images and I felt as if I wasn’t seeing them often enough … I needed to make them. My work is very much about resistance, but also questioning the idea of British identity’
Photograph: Cristiano Corte

Come Home Again by Es Devlin, commissioned by Cartier, outside Tate Modern. The illuminated sculpture is a 1/3-scale replica of the dome of St Paul’s Cathedral and filled with Devlin’s drawings of the 243 species of moths, birds, beetles, wildflowers, fish and fungi at risk of extinction. During the day a soundscape of voices speaks the names of the 243 species and as night falls a London choir sings evensong. It will be there from 22 September to 1 October
Photograph: Guy Bell/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for September 22, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1985, finance ministers and central bankers from the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. met at the Plaza Hotel in New York with a big goal: reversing an overvalued dollar. At the time, the greenback had mounted a blistering rally—sound familiar?—and the U.S. trade deficit had widened. In what became known as the Plaza Accord, the officials agreed to intervene in currency markets. Ultimately, it worked: The dollar fell in the following years, while the Japanese yen climbed.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.9%, or 181.86 to 19,002.68 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 26.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.3%.
Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.1%.
Today, 201 of 236 shares fell, while 35 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 10%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 0.7%
* This month, the index fell 1.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 2%
* The index declined 6.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 14.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 4.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.9% in the past 5 days and fell 4.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 on a trailing basis and 11.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.07t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.11% compared with 15.06% in the previous session and the average of 13.88% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -44.2944| -0.7| 1/28
Energy | -41.0127| -1.2| 1/37
Information Technology | -31.3574| -3.1| 1/13
Industrials | -28.7283| -1.1| 2/25
Real Estate | -11.0928| -2.3| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -9.3326| -1.2| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -9.1444| -1.4| 2/12
Materials | -8.0183| -0.4| 12/39
Utilities | -6.1848| -0.6| 7/9
Health Care | -1.8701| -2.3| 2/5
Communication Services | 9.1702| 1.0| 4/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -21.0000| -6.3| 5.2| -77.9
Brookfield Asset Management | -9.5400| -1.6| 0.5| -19.5
Couche-Tard | -8.0780| -2.7| 14.0| 3.4
Telus | 3.4170| 1.2| -39.6| -3.2
Teck Resources | 3.4530| 2.6| -21.1| 17.4
BCE | 3.8300| 1.0| -24.9| -5.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields hit multiyear highs and stocks fell as a parade of central banks joined the Federal Reserve in boosting rates to curb scorching levels of inflation at the expense of economic growth.
Ten-year US yields hovered near 3.7%, the highest since February 2011.
The S&P 500 closed at the lowest since June, with some Wall Street voices predicting the gauge may soon test its June bottom that stands about 2.5% below current levels.
FedEx Corp. climbed after saying it expects to save up to $2.7 billion as a result of cost-cutting steps.
The dollar remained near its all-time high, fueled by hawkish Fed policy and investors in search of haven.
The Swiss franc slumped as a central bank hike proved not enough to satisfy expectations, while Japan propped up its currency for the first time since 1998.
The Fed gave its clearest signal yet that it’s willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation, with officials forecasting a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening before year-end.
Norway, Britain and South Africa also followed with hikes of their own as officials rush to get to grips with rampant price increases.
“We see this new even-higher-for-longer rate path as associated with a substantially greater higher likelihood of a hard landing, and so not just unambiguously hawkish but unambiguously bad for risk,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI.
The S&P 500 could be poised for more downside after breaking through a rare technical indicator, according to Berenberg strategists including Jonathan Stubbs.
It has traded below its 200-day moving average for over 100 sessions — a streak that was previously breached only during the tech bubble and the global financial crisis in the past 30 years.
In both of those instances, the gauge posted most of its losses after surpassing that level, with the index declining by a further 50% in 2000-2003 and 40% in 2008-2009 before troughing, they said.
Evercore’s chief equity and quantitative strategist Julian Emanuel cut his S&P 500 year-end projection to 3,975 from 4,200 and expects a “full retest” of the June low in the weeks ahead.
The target cut accounts for a rising probability of a recession following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that the rate-hike process won’t be “painless” for the labor and housing markets.
“The bad news is we are still in one of the weakest seasonal windows of the year, especially in a mid-term year,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. “The good news is that it quickly reverses by mid-October. We think we test or break the June lows before then, which should set up a better entry point for a year-end rally.”
Dennis DeBusschere at 22V Research expects markets to remain volatile while maintaining his neutral, range-bound stance for stocks.
“It’s tough to get long until we get signs of slower underlying demand growth, but tail risk is limited by already tighter financial conditions, lower PEs, and higher implied vol,” he wrote.
The environment isn’t suitable for strong directional positioning on overall indexes, according to Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. However, he advises against retreating to the sidelines, “especially given the drag on cash from high inflation and the challenge of timing a return to markets without missing out on rebounds.”
“Instead, we stay invested but also selective, and focus our preferences on the themes of defensives, income, value, diversification, and security,” he added.

Here are some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $0.9839
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.1257
* The Japanese yen rose 1.2% to 142.35 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 17 basis points to 3.70%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 1.96%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 18 basis points to 3.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $83.49 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,680.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Robert Brand, Michael Msika, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

I believe that unarmed truth and unconditional love will have the final word in reality. 
That is why right, temporarily defeated, is stronger than evil triumphant. -Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., 1929-1968.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com