September 20, 2021 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Full harvest moon tonight.
Canada goes to the polls.

1873 Panic swept the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of railroad bond defaults and bank failures. Go to article »

Something big just hit Jupiter.

Something big hit a Middle Eastern city 3,600 years ago, possibly inspiring the story of Sodom.

French slackliner crosses the Seine from the Eiffel Tower in breathtaking stunt.  Slacklining is like tightrope walking, except the line isn’t pulled taut. Why would anyone do that, you ask? It is a mystery. 

The Netherlands, the world’s tallest nation, is getting shorter.  “Hey, fun fact, did you know The Netherlands is the world’s tallest nation?” — all of us, today, to anyone who will listen.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Harvest Moon sets behind the Statue of Liberty before sunrise in New York City.
CREDIT: FROM TELEGRAPH, SEPTEMBER 20, 2021

An auction house employee poses for photographers with a painting entitled ‘La Jeunesse’ by French artist Emile Munier during a photocall for the 19th Century and British Impressionist art sale at Bonhams in London, Britain.
CREDIT: FACUNDO ARRIZABALAGA/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK

A contestant holds four Pomeranians during the FCI-CACIB Zakarpattia 2021 International Dog Show at the Avanhard Stadium, Uzhhorod, Zakarpattia Region, western Ukraine. 
CREDIT: UKRINFORM/SHUTTERSTOCK
Florist Judith Blacklock puts the finishing touches on a floral carousel installation in Halkin Arcade designed by florists Neill Strain and Judith Blacklock for the Belgravia in Bloom festival, running from September 20-26, London, UK.
CREDIT: JOHN NGUYEN/ PA WIRE
Market Closes for September 20^th, 2021

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this date in 1929, the most famous banker in the U.S., Charles E. Mitchell of National City Bank, stated as he boarded a transatlantic cruise liner: “There is nothing to worry about in the financial situation in the United States.” Less than five weeks later, the Crash of 1929 ushered in the Great Depression.
Canada
By Michael Bellusci
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 1.6%, or 335.82 to 20,154.54 in Toronto.
     The move was the biggest since falling 1.8% on Jan. 29.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 200 of 235 shares fell, while 34 rose.
     Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.2%.
NFI Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 23.6%.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears set to retain power in a close election Monday, but may fall short of regaining the parliamentary majority he’s been coveting.
Gold advanced as fears of a spillover from debt woes of Asian real estate developer China Evergrande Group stoked demand for havens, outweighing concerns that the Federal Reserve’s reduction in stimulus could come soon.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss four times. The next day, it advanced after all four occasions
* This year, the index rose 16%, heading for the best year since 2019
* This quarter, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the first quarter of 2020
* This month, the index fell 2.1%, heading for the biggest decline since October 2020
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 32% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.6% below its 52-week high on Sept. 7, 2021 and 30.7% above its low on Oct. 30, 2020
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.5% in the past 5 days and fell 0.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.22t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.21% compared with 6.56% in the previous session and the average of 6.76% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -112.8961| -1.8| 1/27
Energy | -63.5696| -2.5| 0/23
Information Technology| -55.4132| -2.2| 4/11
Industrials | -42.9231| -1.8| 3/26
Materials | -17.7064| -0.8| 10/45
Consumer Discretionary| -10.4044| -1.4| 3/11
Health Care | -10.3254| -4.9| 1/8
Real Estate | -9.5436| -1.5| 2/23
Consumer Staples | -5.5221| -0.7| 1/12
Communication Services| -4.6533| -0.5| 1/6
Utilities | -2.8624| -0.3| 8/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -46.6800| -3.2| 38.0| 27.7
Royal Bank of Canada | -19.0700| -1.5| 35.5| 20.2
Brookfield Asset | | | |
Management | -18.3100| -2.6| -8.0| 28.4
Constellation | | | |
Software | 2.0330| 0.7| 8.6| 32.9
Franco-Nevada | 2.9560| 1.3| -8.4| 10.0
Barrick Gold | 5.7970| 2.0| 8.2| -16.7
US
By Kamaron Leach and Peyton Forte
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell the most in about four months amid a global rout sparked by investor angst over China’s real-estate sector and Federal Reserve tapering.
The S&P 500 pared losses in the last hour of trading to 1.7% as traders emerged to buy the dip again after the benchmark bounced off closely watched moving averages.
     The index was down as much as 2.9% at one point, the biggest slide since October 2020. Treasuries gained along with the dollar before Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where policy makers are expected to start laying the groundwork for paring stimulus. “If the market is ripe for a correction, ‘tis the season for one,” said Anne Wickland, Portfolio Manager at Easterly Investment Partners LLC. “Most selloffs seem to occur at the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth as investors start to adjust future expectations.”
The S&P  500’s drop was an opportunity to buy stocks as the global economic recovery is poised to pick up momentum, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 1.7% to a two-month low.
Raw materials led the broad-based retreat as iron ore extended a slump below $100 a ton and base metals declined after China stepped up restrictions on industrial activity.
Hong Kong shares slumped amid the biggest selloff in property stocks in more than a year as traders tracked the risk of contagion from the debt crisis at developer China Evergrande Group, which is fueling new fears about China’s growth path. “China is not investable, not at this point — even on a government level because you just really don’t know what protection you’re going to have or what the currency is going to do,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.
Aside from Evergrande and the prospect of reduced Fed stimulus, financial markets also face risks from uncertainty over the outlook for President Joe Biden’s $4 trillion economic agenda as well as the need to raise or suspend the U.S. debt ceiling.
     Investors were already fretting over a slowing global recovery from the pandemic and inflation stoked by commodity prices.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. government will run out of money to pay its bills sometime in October without action on the debt ceiling, warning of “economic catastrophe” unless lawmakers take the necessary steps.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin briefly fell below $43,000.
     WTI crude oil extended a drop toward $70 a barrel.
Here are key events to watch this week:
* Bank of Japan rate decision, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discuss pandemic recovery, Friday
     Some of the main moves in markets:
 Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4:06 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1728
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3662
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 109.40 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 1.31%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to -0.32%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 0.79%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $70.81 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.8% to $1,765.50 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Lu Wang.
Have a great night.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

In politics stupidity is not a handicap. -Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com