Dear Friends,
Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
September 18, 1759: Battle of Quebec ends, French surrender to British who capture Quebec City
September 18, 1793: President George Washington laid the cornerstone of the U.S. Capitol. Go to article
September 18, 1812: Great Fire of Moscow burns out after five days, destroys 75% of the city and kills 12,000 people
September 18, 1837: Charles Lewis Tiffany and John B. Young co-found a “stationery and fancy goods emporium” in New York City, renamed in 1853 as “Tiffany & Co.”
September,18, 1851: First edition of The New York Times is published for 2 cents a copy
International Equal Pay Day, September 18, 2025, Read more.
Anthropologist claims hand positions on 1,300-year-old Maya altar have a deeper meaning
A well-known Maya stone carving known as Altar Q, located at the site of Copán in Honduras, may use hand signs to represent key dates in the Maya Long Count Calendar, a new study claims.
‘The sun is slowly waking up’: NASA warns that there may be more extreme space weather for decades to come
A new NASA study suggests that solar activity will remain high or rise further in the coming decades, contradicting previous assumptions that the sun was quieting down — and scientists “don’t completely understand” why.
Scientists invent new sunscreen made from pollen
Traditional chemical sunscreens can damage coral reefs. Scientists say there’s a fix using one derived from tea plant pollen.
‘Rare’ ancestor reveals how huge flightless birds made it to faraway lands
The mystery of how related flightless birds ended up so far apart on different continents may have been solved.
‘There’s no shoving that genie back in the bottle’: Readers believe it’s too late to stop the progression of AI
Over 1,700 readers responded to a Live Science poll, and 30% of them believe it is too late to halt the development of artificial intelligence (AI).
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Munich, Germany
A marching band performs during the press tour of the Oktoberfest grounds
Photograph: Felix Hörhager/AP
Paris, France
A portrait by Pablo Picasso of his muse Dora Maar not seen for 80 years is unveiled at the Hotel Drouot auction house
Photograph: Stéphane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images
Birmingham, England
Dancers take part in a dress rehearsal of Black Sabbath – The Ballet
Photograph: Katja Ogrin/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 18th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46142.42 | +124.10 |
| +0.27% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6631.96 | +31.61 |
| +0.48% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22470.72 | +209.39 |
| +0.94% | ||
| TSX | 29453.53 | +131.87 |
| +0.45% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 45303.43 | +513.05 |
| +1.15% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26544.85 | +363.54 |
| +1.35% | ||
| SENSEX | 83013.96 | +320.25 |
| +0.39% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9228.11 | +19.74 |
| +0.21% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.185 | 3.188 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.624 | 3.610 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1044 | 4.0872 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7242 | 4.6901 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7248 | 0.7261 |
| US $ |
1.3796 | 1.3772 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6262 | 0.6149 |
| US $ |
1.1788 | 0.8483 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3681.00 | 3695.40 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 63.57 | 64.05 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1873, Jay Cooke & Co. of Philadelphia, one of the nation’s largest investment banks, collapsed as a result of failed speculations in railroad stocks—triggering the Panic of 1873. Mr. Cooke—and the entire financial world—were taken completely by surprise. Just the night before, he had lavishly entertained President Ulysses S. Grant at the Cooke family mansion in Chelton Hills, Pa.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 131.87 to 29,453.53 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Capital Power Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.2%.
Today, 122 of 210 shares rose, while 84 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.6%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.69t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.20% compared with 6.57% in the previous session and the average of 9.34% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology | 66.9066| 2.2| 9/1
Financials | 50.9517| 0.5| 20/4
Materials | 13.8404| 0.3| 25/20
Energy | 9.6346| 0.2| 22/17
Utilities | 4.7662| 0.5| 7/7
Consumer Staples | 0.9003| 0.1| 6/4
Health Care | 0.3398| 0.5| 3/0
Real Estate | -1.7302| -0.3| 4/14
Industrials | -1.9124| -0.1| 21/8
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9110| -0.3| 5/4
Communication Services | -8.9102| -1.4| 0/5
Shopify | 52.6000| 3.0| 5.7| 37.1
Brookfield Corp | 20.8800| 2.2| -23.0| 18.1
Barrick Mining | 10.7100| 2.2| 29.7| 86.3
Ivanhoe Mines | -4.4150| -6.5| 124.9| -25.5
Canadian National | -5.1090| -1.0| -39.7| -11.6
Thomson Reuters | -10.5900| -4.8| 158.4| -4.0
(MT Newswires)
(Corrects headline and first paragraph to show the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed a record high.)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday closed at a fresh record high, topping Monday’s prior record following a day-prior cut to interest rates, as Rosenberg Research, while writing about U.S. stocks, may have inadvertently summed up what is happening with Canadian equities too in a note entitled ‘Why Has This Turned Into A “Bad News Is Good News” Market?’.
Despite lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 131.87 points, or 0.45% ,to 29,453.53, with investors buoyed by the prospect of further rate cuts this year.
Most sectors were higher, led by Information Technology, up near 1.7%.
Both Telecoms and the Battery Metals Index were down more than 1.3%.
Of commodities, gold futures traded lower for a second day late afternoon Thursday as traders again took profits following Tuesday’s record high even as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year and indicated more cuts are coming.
Gold for December delivery was down US$39.00 to US$3,678.80 per ounce, continuing a retreat from Tuesday’s record high of US$3,725.10.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day as rising production offset supply risks as Ukraine continues to attack Russian oil infrastructure, disrupting the country’s exports.
WTI oil for October delivery closed down $0.48 to settle at $63.57 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.52 to $67.43.
Rosenberg Research Economist Mehmet Beceren noted the S&P 500 has seen its character shift in recent years as “its cyclical exposure has been declining while sensitivity to interest rates has been on the ascent”.
Once we accept this shift, we can better understand why the index has managed to shrug off weak economic news so easily, Beceren said.
Among key takeaways, Beceren noted equity duration is rising with mega-cap Tech now nearly half of the S&P 500, equity market duration has stretched into the 25-30-year range, which is 30% more than its historical average.
This is making stocks far more sensitive to interest rate moves, he said.
Becerent also noted profits are decoupling from the economic cycle: Mega-cap Tech profits are resilient, and their shares are being treated as safe assets, reducing the link between equity returns and the economic cycle.
He said: “U.S. equities are now more vulnerable to rates, yet they are less tied to the domestic economy, and that duality will matter even more as the next rate-cutting cycle unfolds.”
Sticking with the bad news and good news idea, Fitch Ratings in its latest ‘Global Economic Outlook’ released today raised its world growth forecasts for 2025 “moderately” since the June Global Economic Outlook (GEO) on better-than-expected incoming data for Q2 2025.
Still, it also said there is now evidence of an underlying U.S. slowdown in ‘hard’ economic data, adding positive surprises on eurozone growth have partly reflected US tariff front-running.
So, Fitch still expects world GDP to slow significantly this year.
Fitch’s global growth forecast is now 2.4% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points since June but a “sizeable slowdown” from 2.9% last year and below trend.
China’s forecast has been raised to 4.7% from 4.2%, the eurozone’s to 1.1% from 0.8% and the U.S. to 1.6% from 1.5%.
World growth for 2026 is 0.1pp higher at 2.3%.
Fitch noted there has been a reduction in uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy after a flurry of announcements.
Its latest estimate of the average U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) is 16%, very close to the rate assumed in June.
Fitch noted Mexico at 5% and Canada at 6%, as at August 12, 2025, face lower ETRs, due to better USMCA compliance and Europe’s ETR is also slightly lower, but this is offset by higher-than-expected rates for Asia excluding China.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bets that Federal Reserve rate cuts will keep powering Corporate America drove stocks to all- time highs, with traders piling into the riskier corners of the market.
A day after the Fed deployed its first reduction this year and signaled the potential for more saw a rally that lifted the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 to records.
It’s the first time since November 2021 that all four major benchmarks closed together at fresh highs.
And it’s a rare feat too, occurring on just 25 other days this century.
Easier policy is a big source of support for stock bulls at a time when sky-high valuations are confronting bearish seasonality.
Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has posted an average decline of 0.7% in September, according to LPL Financial.
The gauge is up over 2.5% this month.
“The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates during a time when stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing,” said Robert Schein at Blanke Schein Wealth Management.
“This dynamic is bullish for stocks.”
About 320 shares in the S&P 500 rose, with tech leading the way.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1%.
A $5 billion investment from Nvidia Corp. in Intel Corp. drove the ailing chipmaker up 23%.
The Russell 2000 added 2.5%.
In late hours, FedEx Corp.
reinstated its full-year profit outlook.
Bonds erased gains after data showed jobless claims dropped by the most in nearly four years, suggesting companies are still holding onto workers.
The lack of any Fed hawkish surprises and the restarting of the rate-cutting cycle could be enough to offset any seasonal headwinds and keep risk appetite on the table, said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
“Big tech stocks tend to outperform during lower interest- rate environments, and financials may see a boost from additional M&A and mortgage activity that may come about from lower rates,” Schein said.
As important as the tech stocks are for the market, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak says he’ll be watching the small caps testing their record high even more closely than the tech sector over the rest of September.
“If they can break above that level in a significant way over the next week or two, it should be very bullish,” Maley said.
“If, however, they fail at this level (or slightly above it), it’s going to be quite bearish.”
Worries have been mounting for weeks that the S&P 500’s push to record after record risks becoming a bubble, with the index’s swollen valuation cited most often as cause for concern.
Critics point to the tech sector’s outsize influence on this year’s gain, with just five stocks, all megacap tech firms, driving about half of the advance.
But a closer look shows tech giants have largely justified their elevated valuations with profit growth.
“Investors have happily bought every dip, largely thanks to AI-driven enthusiasm and consistently strong results from big tech,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The concern is that if tech momentum cools, the rest of the market may struggle to justify current valuations.”
That leaves the rally vulnerable if investor confidence wavers, putting the S&P 500 forecast on a more cautious stance, he noted.
“Investors should continue to emphasize diversification and careful stock selection,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“We believe lower interest rates, robust earnings growth, and AI tailwinds will support further potential gains for global equities over the next year,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Investors under-allocated to equities and looking to manage timing risks should consider phasing in and using market dips to add exposure to preferred areas, she said.
Her firm estimates that the Fed will cuts rates by a further 75 basis points between now and the first quarter of next year.
At Ameriprise, Anthony Saglimbene says prospects for two more rate cuts in 2025 is a positive for equity markets and risk appetite in general heading into year-end.
But that is “if labor market conditions do not deteriorate much further, consumer spending remains stable, and Big Tech delivers on third-quarter profit expectations.”
While the S&P 500 has fallen 1% on average during Septembers going back to 1971, it has gained 1.2% in the month when the US central bank was reducing borrowing costs and the economy was not contracting, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
“The proximity of the market to all-time highs suggests that this rate cut is likely non-recessionary in nature, aimed more at supporting continued economic growth rather than countering a downturn,” noted SentimenTrader analysts.
Non-recessionary cuts typically have a more constructive impact on equities, as they can extend bull markets and boost investor confidence, they said.
“Our base case remains that the US economy will remain resilient and that it is unlikely to spiral into a recession,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We therefore believe stocks are poised for further gains.”
Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel Corp. and said the two will co-develop chips for PCs and data centers, a surprise move to help prop up an ailing archrival.
* Walt Disney Co.’s ABC network is taking Jimmy Kimmel Live! Off the air indefinitely amid a backlash to remarks the late-night host made about the killing of Republican activist Charlie Kirk.
* Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.’s sales guidance missed expectations, showing the brand is still dealing with the fallout from its controversial and short-lived logo change.
* American Express Co. is boosting the annual fee for its Platinum consumer credit card to $895 — a $200 increase — and adding about $1,500 of potential perks to help customers get over the sticker shock.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s diabetes blockbuster Ozempic beat Eli Lilly & Co.’s older drug Trulicity in a real-world survey of certain US patients.
* The US Federal Trade Commission and seven states sued Live Nation Entertainment Inc. and its Ticketmaster subsidiary for failing to stem the use of automated ticketing bots and large- scale resale operations.
* Darden Restaurants Inc. rolled out smaller-portioned, lower- priced entrées at select Olive Garden locations during the quarter, part of its strategy to make menus more affordable and boost sales, Chief Executive Officer Rick Cardenas said on an earnings call.
* GE Healthcare Technologies Inc. is exploring options including the sale of a stake in its China unit, people familiar with the matter said.
* Uber Technologies Inc. will trial food deliveries by drone with Flytrex Inc., marking the rideshare giant’s return to experiments with logistics.
* Deutsche Bank AG warned that a broad rollback of financial regulations in the US will give the German lender’s overseas competitor an edge.
* Hyundai Motor Co. raised its revenue forecast for 2025 while paring profit expectations as the South Korean automaker accelerates investment in the US to mitigate tariff costs.
* Huawei Technologies Co. unveiled new technology from memory chips to AI accelerators Thursday, outlining publicly for the first time its multiyear plan to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in a growing market.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Friday’s call heavy triple-witching September options expiry unpins the SPX from its current range around 6,600.
This increases the likelihood of higher intraday volatility.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1784
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3548
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 147.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $117,487.8
* Ether rose 1.9% to $4,590.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.11%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.68%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $63.68 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,646.69 an ounce
–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shab
“The best way to keep one’s word is not to give it.” — Gen Napoleon Bonaparte
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828