September 17, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Look up tonight for sky magic as a shadow takes a bite out of the super harvest moon. This particular confluence of events won’t happen again for nearly a decade. Here’s what’s happening and how to make the most of the sight (you’ll want a jacket, judging by the weather forecast).

September 17, 1849: Harriet Tubman escapes from a Southern plantation in the United States, later leading other enslaved people to freedom in the North via the Underground Railroad.
1862: Battle of Antietam, 25,000 killed.
1920: National Football League formed.
September 17^th, 1976: NASA unveiled the space shuttle Enterprise.  Go to article >> 

William Carlos Williams, poet, b. 1883.
Hank Williams, Sr., singer/songwriter, b. 1923.
Ken Kesey, writer, b. 1935.

This airport landing is so challenging only 50 pilots are qualified to do it
Ringed by mountains, this small airport is widely considered one of the most technically difficult plane landings in the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bridge Brings into the City by Xu Zhang | Urban
Guiyang, located in Guizhou province, China, boasts numerous towering buildings and elevated bridges that seamlessly integrate with the surrounding mountainous terrain
Photograph: Xu Zhang/Drone Photo Awards 2024

Karachi, Pakistan
A student sits with others as they attend the Eid-e-Milad-ul-Nabi celebrations to mark the birth anniversary of the prophet Muhammad
Photograph: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters

Stay Where Your Heart Smiles by Silke Hullmann | Nature
Large flocks of flamingos dance above the mesmerising green water surface
Photograph: Silke Hullmann/Drone Photo Awards 2024
Market Closes for September 17^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1998: Stock markets took a pounding after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan dismissed plans for coordinated global interest-rate cuts amid the Russian debt crisis. In weeks the U.S. stock market bottomed out and headed straight up.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 23,677.70 in Toronto, ending a 4-day gain.
The loss follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Waste Connections Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.1%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.5%.
Today, 104 of 226 shares fell, while 118 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 13%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 8.2%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.87% compared with 11.59% in the previous session and the average of 13.95% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | -26.3404| -0.8| 14/14
Consumer Staples | -12.5504| -1.3| 4/7
Materials | -4.0706| -0.1| 21/30
Real Estate | -3.7475| -0.7| 5/14
Utilities | -3.4705| -0.4| 4/9
Consumer Discretionary | -1.2696| -0.2| 10/3
Communication Services | -0.2880| 0.0| 1/4
Health Care | 0.5056| 0.7| 2/2
Information Technology | 2.7428| 0.1| 5/5
Financials | 3.3122| 0.0| 19/8
Energy | 20.8111| 0.5| 33/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Waste Connections | -9.6630| -2.1| 51.3| 24.7
Canadian National | -8.1610| -1.2| -41.7| -2.8
Enbridge | -6.6840| -0.8| -53.4| 16.4
Bank of Montreal | 6.7260| 1.1| -21.9| -9.0
Shopify | 10.9000| 1.3| 15.9| -1.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.2400| 1.7| 87.8| 2.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks drifted near all-time highs ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, with traders split on the size of an interest-rate cut.
The S&P 500 closed little changed after briefly crossing the threshold of a record amid an increase in US retail sales.
Economically sensitive industries once again outperformed tech.
Treasury yields edged up, with shorter maturities leading the move.
The market-implied odds the Fed announces a 50-basis-point reduction on Wednesday were around 55%.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed investors who expect a 25 basis-point reduction are split on whether that cut would deliver a “risk-on” or “risk-off” reaction.
Meantime, those betting on 50 basis points think a smaller Fed move would be “risk-off.”
“If the Fed doesn’t initiate its easing cycle with 50 basis points, surely a 25 basis-point move will be enveloped by a dovish tone,” according to Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial.
Ryan Detrick at Carson Group said “a larger cut out of the gate makes a lot of sense” given that now the big concern is the potential for a quickly slowing labor market.
Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers still believes the Fed should lean to 25 basis points, but notes that years of trading experience have taught him to respect the message of the market.
And that message has been saying 50, he said.
Sosnick noted there will likely be widespread disappointment if the Fed opts for 25 basis points.
He says equity markets always crave more liquidity, and at the same time, bond markets have all but priced in an aggressive rate cutting path for future meetings.
So the smaller cut would bias against both.
The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed little changed.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms gained 0.7%.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced two basis points to 3.64%.
The dollar rose.
The Fed will either cut 50 basis points or opt for a 25 basis-point reduction, but signal that they will be more aggressive going forward, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
Still, he says, that does not guarantee that the stock market and/or bond market will rally in a meaningful way.
Maley says the Fed will likely try to convey that a more dovish stance is not seen as something that means they’re suddenly worried about an imminent recession.
“Therefore, given that the stock market is approaching overbought territory, we could still get a ‘sell the news’ reaction to the Fed this week,” he added.
Kristina Hooper at Invesco expects the Fed to cut by 25 basis points as a bigger reduction would raise alarm bells about the state of the US economy.
“Recall that the Fed started a brief easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut in March 2020 with the global pandemic upon us; it would be very hard to argue that the situation is so dire now,” she noted.
What Fed Chair Jerome Powell says in his press conference about the state of the US economy could help build confidence for those worried about a recession in the near term, Hooper added.
“In addition, it will be valuable to hear Powell’s thoughts on the expected path of rate cuts — in particular, what conditions could trigger a change of course, either a moderation or acceleration in easing,” she noted. “These are just things you can’t glean from the dot plot, so the press conference is ‘must see TV’ in my view.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. raised its quarterly dividend 10% and unveiled a new $60 billion stock-buyback program, matching the size of a repurchase plan three years ago.
* Intel Corp. made a raft of announcements, spurring optimism that the chipmaker’s turnaround plan is starting to bear fruit.
* Salesforce Inc. is unveiling a pivot in its artificial intelligence strategy this week at its annual Dreamforce conference, now saying that its AI tools can handle tasks without human supervision and changing the way it charges for software.
* Newmont Corp., the world’s biggest gold miner, said it’s on track to raise $2 billion — if not more — from selling smaller mines and development projects.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is in discussions with Apple Inc. about taking over a credit card portfolio that rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has been trying to ditch.
* Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel unveiled a new version of the company’s Spectacles smart glasses, revitalizing an effort to build an advanced augmented reality product that may one day replace or rival the smartphone.
* Ozempic, the blockbuster diabetes shot made by Novo Nordisk A/S, is “very likely” to be one of the next drugs targeted for a price cut in bargaining with the US government’s Medicare program, a company executive said.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* Fed rate decision, Wednesday
* UK rate decision, Thursday
* US US Conf. Board leading index, initial jobless claims, US existing home sales, Thursday
* FedEx earnings, Thursday
* Japan rate decision, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1117
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3163
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 142.22 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $59,953.71
* Ether rose 3.4% to $2,352.4
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.64%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.14%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.77%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $71.34 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,568.94 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
One day your life will flash before your eyes.  Make sure it’s worth watching.  -Gerard Way, b. 1977.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com