Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.
September 12, 1609: English explorer Henry Hudson sailed into the river that now bears his name. Go to article.
September 12, 1958: John Kilby tests the first integrated circuit at Texas Instruments, proving electronic components can reside on a single chip: a cornerstone of modern computing.
H.L. Mencken, critic, b. 1880.
A Super Bowl rematch
Many football fans are gearing up to watch a Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Here’s what you should know about Week 2 in the NFL.
The rise of instax cameras
Fujifilm’s instax camera is snowballing in popularity. But why now? And what does its success say about the future of analog experiences in a digital world?
A major milestone in astronomy
Astronomers detected, in unprecedented detail, a collision between two black holes. Their observations confirm predictions made by Albert Einstein and Stephen Hawking.
Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
The street artist’s latest mural, depicting a judge beating a protester, has been scrubbed off a London courthouse wall.
Bad Bunny says he didn’t include US in concert tour for fear of ICE raids
Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny said in an interview that he did not include the US in his 2025-2026 concert tour because of fear that ICE agents would raid the concert venues.
Make art, not war: Filmmaker-turned-artist Ralph Ziman uses millions of hand-threaded beads to turn artifacts of war into artworks. His series “Weapons of Mass Production” recently concluded with his most ambitious work to date: an entire fighter jet.
NASA’s Earth Observatory has announced that Alaska has a “brand new island” after a retreating glacier lost contact with the Prow Knob mountain landmass in Alsek Lake. Read More.
Scientists invent a new device that aims to solve thermal interference from electronic components — one of the biggest barriers to commercial quantum computing. Read More.
New photos captured during the recent “blood moon” total lunar eclipse show that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS may be turning green as it gets closer to the sun. Read More.
The vivid reconstructions are based on two skulls found in urns excavated in 2021 at a burial ground in southern India. Read More. |
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Cered, Hungary
An aerial view, taken with a drone, of morning fog
Photograph: Péter Komka/EPA
Drøbak, Norway
The US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford on its way into the Oslofjord. The ship is the world’s largest warship
Photograph: Lise Åserud/NTB/AFP/Getty Images
Guijuelo, Spain
The peloton passing through a landscape during the La Vuelta – 80th Tour of Spain 2025, Stage 19 a 161.9km stage from Rueda to Guijuelo
Photograph: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 12th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
45834.22 | -273.78 |
| -0.59% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6584.29 | -3.18 |
| -0.05% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22141.10 | +98.03 |
| +0.44% | ||
| TSX | 29283.82 | -124.07 |
| -0.42% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 44768.12 | +395.62 |
| +0.89% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26388.16 | +301.84 |
| +1.16% | ||
| SENSEX | 81904.70 | +355.97 |
| +0.44% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9283.29 | -14.29 |
| -0.15% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.188 | 3.161 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.618 | 3.604 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0643 | 4.0206 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.6805 | 4.6535 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7223 | 0.7225 |
| US $ |
1.3844 | 1.3840 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6249 | 0.6154 |
| US $ |
1.1734 | 0.8524 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3629.55 | 3650.75 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 62.69 | 62.37 |
Market Commentary:
When I think of the progress we have made during my lifetime in improving the quality of life and when I extrapolate that progress into the future,
I cannot help being optimistic. –Sir John Templeman, 1912-2008.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 29,283.82 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Aug.
25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.8%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.1%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 4.5%.
Today, 108 of 210 shares fell, while 96 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.7t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.50% compared with 9.49% in the previous session and the average of 9.77% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | -43.8952| -0.5| 8/16
Information Technology | -29.3598| -1.0| 5/5
Industrials | -26.2117| -0.8| 4/23
Materials | -16.2968| -0.4| 19/26
Consumer Discretionary | -8.9093| -0.9| 2/7
Consumer Staples | -6.4267| -0.6| 2/8
Real Estate | -0.9997| -0.2| 12/6
Communication Services | -0.8354| -0.1| 2/2
Health Care | 0.3412| 0.5| 3/0
Energy | 4.1655| 0.1| 28/12
Utilities | 4.3508| 0.4| 11/3
Shopify | -18.4100| -1.1| -1.5| 29.7
RBC | -11.7800| -0.6| 6.7| 15.2
BNS | -9.8500| -1.3| -8.8| 13.7
Manulife Financial | 2.1570| 0.4| -74.9| 0.0
TC Energy | 2.8370| 0.5| -67.2| 8.2
Enbridge | 7.3230| 0.7| -60.5| 11.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday failed for only the third time in the last 16 sessions to close at record highs, with investors taking profits after recent massive gains for the market while adjusting their portfolios ahead of a big week ahead on interest rates across North America.
Even with elevated commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 124.07 points, or 0.4%, to 29,283.82.
Going into today’s trade, the index was up 2.95% month to date, and near 19% year to date.
Most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals Index up 2.05%.
On the other side, Info Tech, Industrials and Financials all lost less than 0.8% each.
In his weekly ‘Talking Points’ column, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter said “the sustained upswing in equities is especially remarkable given that we are now knee-deep in the most challenging month of the year for stocks”.
He added: “The prospect of lower rates is providing a powerful tailwind, with investors apparently comfortable in the view that growth will downturn.”
On rates, Porter noted that after a lengthy spell on the sidelines, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are expected to resume cutting rates at next Wednesday’s decisions.
Porter said: “A suddenly darker employment picture is the primary driver for both, overriding somewhat sticky core inflation, and looking past rollicking equity markets.
The Fed’s decision is widely viewed as more of a slam-dunk, as the debate has gravitated from “if” to “how much”, with some small chance of a repeat of last September’s 50 bp (basis point) slice.
The Bank’s (Bank of Canada) decision is a little less clear-cut, with the added complication of the CPI report landing just one day earlier.
Still, in both cases, we expect a low-drama 25 bp trim, but with plenty of questions on what comes next.”
On the Bank of Canada’s decision specifically, Porter said it is not a foregone conclusion, although most believe the pronounced weakness in employment in recent months and the heavy drop in Q2 GDP have weighted the scales to a 25 bp cut next week.
Porter noted there was really no major new news on the domestic front for the BoC to chew on this week.
He said: “While the unveiling of five new “nation-building projects” was intriguing, the reality is that these were all already on the books and unlikely to move the macro needle.”
Porter noted next week’s calendar is much heavier, as the BoC will get a raft of new info in the days prior to the rate decision, highlighted by Tuesday’s CPI, but also including home sales and starts for August.
Porter noted that while the BoC’s preferred measures of core inflation have been stuck around 3% for months now, and likely stayed there in August, the official commentary suggests underlying inflation is ‘around 2.5%.
He said this may be “a nod to the old tried-and-true” core CPI of ex food and energy and indirect taxes, which is at precisely 2.5% (vs. 3.1% stateside).
Porter added: “Besides their own dedicated measures of core running a bit hot, there’s the added frustration of grocery prices chugging along at 3.4% y/y and now even gasoline prices are working against them.
In recent days, pump prices have somehow climbed above year-ago levels nationally, even with the consumer carbon tax having been axed and world oil prices down about 10% y/y.
While the Bank typically looks past swings in gasoline, it’s no help to inflation expectations with pump prices suddenly flaring for no obvious reason.”
Despite that “curveball”, Porter expects the BoC to trim rates and keep the door open for more.
BMO’s call stands at a total of three cuts, taking the overnight rate down to 2.0%.
Porter said the “stickiness” of core CPI is the strongest argument against a more aggressive rate-cut campaign and may even prompt the BoC to move in staggered steps.
“But bigger picture,” he added, “with the jobless rate pushing above 7% and the housing market listing sideways, there’s a good case for the Bank to bring rates to the low end of their neutral range (officially 2.25%-to-3.25%), or even a bit below.
True, monetary policy can’t ‘fix’ the trade war, but it can set the conditions for the rest of the economy to prosper.”
In cutting rates 25 basis points on September 17, the BoC won’t endorse any particular rate path, according to Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins.
However, he said, in their “typical intentionally vague” communications style, the Governing Council is very likely to leave the door wide open to another rate reduction in October.
As a result, Desjardins sees market pricing moving to incorporate a greater chance of reaching a 2.00% policy rate.
Mendes said: “The balance of risks has shifted, and markets will likely begin thinking more about downside scenarios for both growth and inflation after hearing from a more dovish central bank.
A subdued employment outlook and benign inflation projection have been core to our Canadian rates forecast for some time.”
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high midafternoon Friday, gaining ground on rate-cut expectations despite a higher dollar.
Gold for December delivery was up $13.80 to US$3,687.0 per ounce, above the Sept. 9 record close of US$3,682.20 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher Friday, rebounding from the prior day’s drop on oversupply worries, after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil-export port added a fresh risk premium.
WTI crude for October delivery closed up $0.32 to settle at US$62.69 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen up $0.60 to US$66.97.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A strong week on Wall Street ended on a quiet note, with stocks holding near all-time highs and bonds falling as consumer data did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.
Following a relentless surge, the S&P 500 barely budged.
The IPO market kicked into high gear this week, with deals raising over $4 billion in the busiest period since 2021.
A gauge of mega caps jumped Friday, led by Tesla Inc.
Shares of vaccine makers slumped on a report health officials plan to link Covid shots to the deaths of around two dozen children.
A modest slide in Treasuries trimmed an advance that sent the market to its fourth straight up week.
The dollar saw its biggest weekly slide in about a month.
Consumer sentiment hit the lowest since May and long-term inflation expectations rose.
That follows recent data painting a picture of a slowing labor market, with investors leaning heavily in the direction of three rate cuts this year.
“The Fed is pulled in opposite directions by rising inflation on the one hand and a weak job market on the other,” said Bill Adams at Comerica Bank.
“The Fed can be expected to cut rates further in coming months; the question is how much, not if.”
Cracks in the job market will likely prompt the Fed to execute a series of rate reductions beginning next week, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The median respondent sees two cuts by year-end, but a sizable minority — more than 40% — anticipates three reductions. Deutsche Bank AG economists now see three rate reductions in 2025.
They previously expected officials led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell would cut this month and wait to ease again until December.
At Morgan Stanley, economists including Michael Gapen expect four straight rate cuts.
Beyond January, they see officials pausing to assess inflationary impacts.
Once that “noise” clears, they we anticipate further reductions in April and July.
And what about Fed guidance?
Strategists at TD Securities say that’s likely to “lean dovish” next week as a result of labor-market conditions — but not overly so given an inflation overshoot remains an important risk.
They believe the September Summary of Economic Projections will reflect this, continuing to show two cuts in 2025, while shifting data projections in a “slightly hawkish direction.”
“The market is unlikely to be surprised by the cut,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“However, the likely reluctance of Chair Powell and the dots to commit to future cuts could be interpreted as less dovish.”
That could lead rates and the curve to reverse some recent momentum, they noted.
“We’re anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut and expect that the tone of the statement, press conference, and SEP will be interpreted as net dovish,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
As Powell restarts the “normalization process,” Lyngen anticipates that the 2025 dot plot will be lowered to reflect the potential for a 25 basis-point cut at both the October and December meetings.
Financial markets are betting the Fed will still be “ahead of the curve” when it starts lowering borrowing costs, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist pointed to a rally in banks and rate- sensitive stocks as well as a drop in investment-grade credit spreads, which suggests investors are “saying the Fed can cut with credibility and is cutting into US growth re-acceleration,” he said.
Still, cash drew the bulk of inflows in the past week, bringing the four-week total to $266 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR Global data. US stocks saw outflows of $19 billion.
With the Fed poised to cut rates next week and market sentiment still far from complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher for equities in the near term, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Rate cuts would add to a growing list of tailwinds, from the stimulative budget deal and trade agreements to the earnings boost from a weaker dollar,” he said.
This week’s flood of IPO deals became a barometer for just how frothy the stock market was getting.
All offerings saw strong demand in the formal marketing process before trading began, with many selling bigger stakes than they had initially offered.
The median listing opened 31% above the offer price, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Even with September’s strong start, the IPO market is still recovering from what was seen before the pandemic.
Roughly $29 billion has been raised on US exchanges through Sept. 12, the data compiled by Bloomberg show.
That lags an average of $31.4 billion in the decade before 2020’s boom and pales in comparison to the manic years during the pandemic.
Corporate Highlights:
* The leader of Tesla Inc.’s board said no one other than Elon Musk is capable of running the company as it expands beyond electric vehicles into artificial intelligence and robotics.
* Apple Inc. delayed the launch of its new iPhone Air in mainland China, citing regulatory approval issues.
* Microsoft Corp. avoided a hefty antitrust penalty as the European Union accepted its commitments to settle a probe into the alleged illegal bundling of its Teams video-conferencing app.
* The US Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google misled advertisers that place ads on their websites, according to people familiar with the matter.
* OpenAI said it’s closer to converting into a more traditional for-profit company — nearing the resolution of painful negotiations with top shareholder Microsoft and outlining terms of at least $100 billion in equity for its nonprofit arm.
* The leaders of OpenAI and Nvidia Corp. plan to pledge support for billions of dollars in UK data center investments when they head to the country next week at the same time as President Donald Trump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* The Federal Aviation Administration said it would fine Boeing Co. $3.1 million for safety violations uncovered over a space of several months between late 2023 and early last year.
** Boeing ’s St. Louis-area defense workers will remain on strike after they rejected a third contract offer from management.
* Tylenol-maker Kenvue Inc. spoke with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a bid to keep the over-the-counter painkiller off a list of autism-causing treatments.
* Union Pacific Corp.’s CEO discussed the railroad’s proposed $72 billion acquisition of rival Norfolk Southern Corp. with Trump as the company seeks regulatory approval for the deal.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. said it has invented a new form of graphite that can increase the life of electric-vehicle batteries by as much as 30%.
* Gemini Space Station Inc. jumped in its trading debut after the cryptocurrency exchange led by the billionaire Winklevoss twins raised $425 million in a packed week for US listings.
* WisdomTree Inc. launched its first tokenized fund that gives investors exposure to private credit, marking the latest attempt by Wall Street to connect fast-growing markets with blockchain technology.
* One of Banco Sabadell SA’s largest shareholders said he won’t accept BBVA SA’s $18 billion takeover bid at the current price, putting more pressure on the prospective buyer to improve it.
* Ocado Group Plc tumbled after Kroger Co. questioned the future of their partnership, raising concerns that the major US grocer could close some existing automated warehouses to cut costs.
* SK Hynix Inc. jumped after the company announced it had completed development of HBM4, the next generation of high- bandwidth memory crucial for artificial-intelligence work.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The S&P 500 is still trading in a ‘good news’ regime, rallying on weak lagging/coincident data that accelerates Fed cuts, or on forward-looking signals pointing to brighter prospects.
Such regimes often support equities for extended periods, but they have also preceded prior market peaks.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1736
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3560
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 147.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $116,666.12
* Ether rose 5.5% to $4,661.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.56%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $62.51 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,644.92 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
I have learned that the countless paths one traverses in one’s life are all equal.
Oppressors and the oppressed meet at the end, and the only thing that prevails is
that life was altogether too short for both. –Don Juan as quoted by Carlos Castaneda, 1925-1998.
from The Teachings of Don Juan: A Yaqui Way of Knowledge, 1968.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com