September 1, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

September 1, 1939: Germany invades Poland, marking the beginning of World War II. Go to article >>

Oprah Winfrey and Dwayne Johnson launch Maui recovery fund:  The powerful duo launched a recovery fund for the people who lost housing in the Maui wildfires. They said in a social media video that all donations will directly go “into the hands of Lahaina residents.”

Messi’s upcoming match is the most expensive Major League Soccer game ever.  Ticket prices for this Sunday’s match between Inter Miami and Los Angeles are hovering around $690. For comparison, average MLS ticket prices used to cost $110 before soccer superstar Leo Messi joined the league.

Burning Man’s dramatic tribute to war-torn Ukraine.  A 26-foot-tall wooden box was set ablaze at the Nevada festival to reveal a powerful symbol of Ukraine’s “rebirth.”

One of the longest dino tracks in the world revealed by drought in Texas state park
Drought conditions have revealed well-preserved dinosaur tracks at a state park in Texas. Read More.

800-pound alligator is the longest ever caught in Mississippi
The gigantic animal measured 14 feet and 3 inches long, beating the previous record for the longest alligator caught by permitted hunters by more than 2 inches.
Full Story: Live Science (8/31)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Munich, Germany
A model of a giant Porsche stands on Wittelsbacherplatz in the city centre. The square will be used for the IAA Mobility exhibition in the Bavarian capital
Photograph: Martin Schulz/AP

Budapest, Hungary
People interact with an exhibition during the opening of the Ikono museum.  Photograph: Márton Mónus/EPA

​​​​​​​Nalayh, Mongolia
A Mongol knight takes part in a folklore performance at the culture park.  Photograph: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 1^st, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1862, the San Francisco Stock and Exchange Board was founded by 37 brokers to organize trading in silver and gold mining stocks, primarily based at the booming Comstock Lode in Virginia City, Nev.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.2% at 20,545.36 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since July 31 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 178 of 226 shares rose, while 46 fell.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%.
Canadian Western Bank had the largest increase, rising 11.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 13 times. The next day, it advanced eight times for an average 0.8% and declined five times for an average 1%
* This year, the index rose 6%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 1.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 3.6%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended June 30
* The index advanced 7.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Feb.2, 2023 and 15% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 on a trailing basis and 14.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.21t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.83% compared with 11.33% in the previous session and the average of 10.96% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 75.7836| 1.2| 25/3
Energy | 65.3155| 1.8| 40/0
Industrials | 36.4999| 1.3| 19/6
Information Technology | 20.2505| 1.2| 9/2
Materials | 18.8227| 0.8| 25/25
Consumer Staples | 13.8240| 1.6| 9/1
Utilities | 10.4350| 1.2| 13/3
Consumer Discretionary | 8.0278| 1.1| 11/3
Real Estate | 5.3700| 1.1| 21/0
Health Care | 1.2521| 2.0| 4/0
Communication Services | -2.8636| -0.4| 2/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 13.4300| 1.9| 50.2| 8.3
Enbridge | 12.2000| 1.8| -34.0| -8.7
Bank of Nova Scotia| 11.4100| 2.1| 65.6| -1.3
TMX Group | -0.9940| -1.7| -45.7| 8.4
Alamos Gold | -1.4370| -3.0| -21.6| 23.2
BCE | -5.3660| -1.5| 27.2| -5.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in stocks faded as bond yields climbed after a strong manufacturing report offset optimism with jobs data signaling the Federal Reserve is close to ending its hiking cycle.
The S&P 500 closed with a small advance ahead of Monday’s US holiday, while notching its best week since June.
Tesla Inc. dropped 5%, while energy shares rallied as oil topped $85 a barrel.
Treasury two-year yields reversed course after falling as much as 11 basis points in the immediate aftermath of the August payrolls figures.
The dollar hit a three-month high.
The jobs report showed a labor market undergoing a controlled cooling, illustrated by solid hiring, slower earnings  growth and more people returning to the workforce.
The moderation gives the Fed room to pause rate increases this month while keeping options open for another hike later in the year.
“While today’s employment data were a win for the soft-landing optimists, I think it is irresponsible to assume that the Fed is out of the woods,” said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. “Growth remains unsustainably strong — strong growth with cyclical momentum at a time when the Fed is taking at least one of its feet off the brake pedal.”
Swap contracts still priced in a less than 50% chance of another Fed hike this year — while wagers on a cut were shifted to May from June.
Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said inflation remains too high despite recent improvements, and the labor market is still strong.
“Future policy decisions will be about managing the risks and the intertemporal costs of overtightening versus under tightening monetary policy,” she said.

To Hussain Mehdi at HSBC Asset Management, the case for a Fed pause in September is now “overwhelming.”
However, it will be “difficult to dodge recession next year” amid the lagged impact of the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle.
Mehdi is keeping “a cautious and defensive stance in portfolios.”
August jobs figures will likely be enough for Fed moderates  to successfully negotiate a pause in hikes this month — but it will not assuage the hawks who are still inclined to follow through with a bit more tightening thereafter, according to Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and William Marshall at BNP Paribas.
“We do anticipate cooler macroeconomic conditions by November’s meeting to justify an extended pause,” they noted.
Meantime, BlackRock Inc.’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, Rick Rieder, said the cooling labor market supports speculation that the Fed is done raising rates — making bonds more appealing than they have been in months.
“I think you can use this as another benchmark for the fact that we are seeing slack build in the labor force” and it comes “alongside of inflation coming down,” Rieder said on Bloomberg Television Friday. “The Fed should be done. You can put your shoulder behind a bit more of interest-rate exposure than has been the case certainly over the last few months.” 

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla revamped the Model 3 sedan with sleeker looks and longer range while slashing prices of its premium vehicles in an all-out push to boost sales.
* Amgen Inc. can move forward with its $27.8 billion takeover of Horizon Therapeutics Plc after the US Federal Trade Commission said Friday that it accepted a binding settlement that the combined company won’t bundle together two of Horizon’s blockbuster drugs.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.’s Rosalind Brewer stepped down from her post as chief executive officer and board member during a rocky shift to a wider offering of health-care services while the shares have plunged.
* Charter Communications Inc., the No. 2 US cable TV provider, declared war on Walt Disney Co., saying it can no longer live with rising fees for ESPN and other programming.
* Dell Technologies Inc. climbed after reporting better-than-expected sales of personal computers and data center hardware.
* Broadcom Inc., a supplier of chips to Apple Inc. and a broad swath of the tech industry, fell on a bearish outlook.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. rose after lifting its full-year outlook as it takes business from competitors and defies the broader retail slump.
* A gauge of US-listed Chinese stocks advanced after Beijing and Shanghai both eased housing rules, a sign of further government support toward the economy.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0776
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2588
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 146.17 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $25,611.21
* Ether fell 1.9% to $1,618.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.55%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.43%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $85.88 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Michael Mackenzie, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Twenty years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do.  So, throw off the bowlines, sail away from the safe harbor, catch the trade winds in your sails.  Explore, Dream, Discover. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com