Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday. Full moon tonight – Harvest Moon! 🌕
On Oct. 6, 1981, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was shot to death by Islamic militants while reviewing a military parade. Go to article.
October 6, 1987: Microsoft announces Excel for Windows 2.0, moving spreadsheets into graphical Windows environment and transforming office productivity.
| Harvest Moon 2025: Watch a rare October supermoon rise amid shooting stars |
The famous Harvest Moon — the first of three supermoons of 2025 — will be the first full moon of autumn when it rises on Oct. 6-7. Read More.
| Nobel Prize in medicine goes to trio for their work on immune tolerance |
The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Mary E. Brunkow, Fred Ramsdell and Shimon Sakaguchi for work on how immune systems are prevented from
attacking our own bodies. Read More.
| Anthropologists make ‘ant yogurt’ from centuries-old recipe, serve it as an ‘ant-wich’ at Michelin-star restaurant |
Researchers have revealed how adding a handful of live ants to warm milk can create yogurt. Read More.
| Massive system of rotating ocean currents in the North Atlantic is behaving strangely — and it may be reaching a tipping point |
An analysis of clam shells suggests the North Atlantic subpolar gyre has had two periods of destabilization over the past 150 years: one around 1920 and the other from 1950 through present. Read More.
| AI voices are now indistinguishable from real human voices |
Do you think you’d be able to tell the difference between a real human voice and a deepfake? Most people can’t. Read More.
| Eagle brooches: 1,500-year-old pins filled with dazzling gems and glass — and worn by powerful Visigoth women |
Visigoth women may have worn eagle-shaped pins as a symbol of power. Read More.
It’s never too late
Here’s how older adults can restore optimal well-being, according to experts.
Swifties flock to movie theaters
“Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” hit theaters for a three-day run to coincide with Swift’s latest album, topping the weekend box office.
Bad Bunny on ‘SNL’
The singer addressed the backlash to his upcoming Super Bowl halftime gig.
TikTok star cycles up the Eiffel Tower
Internet personality Aurélien Fontenoy cycled up the Eiffel Tower in 12 minutes and 30 seconds. That’s wheely impressive.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Haikou, China
A rainbow arcs over buildings after Typhoon Matmo in Hainan province
Photograph: Jiang Jurong/VCG/Getty Images
Maranello, Italy
A drone view shows the Ferrari e-Vortex test circuit, a 1.9km track covering 37,000 sq metres, built in less than four months to enhance functional testing of new sports cars. It features banked curves, a 600-metre straight section and specialised surfaces for performance analysis
Photograph: Ferrari Handout/Reuters
Colombo, Sri Lanka
A man collects pink water lilies to sell for religious offerings
Photograph: Krishan Kariyawasam/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 6th , 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46694.97 | -63.31 |
| -0.14% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6740.28 | +24.49 |
| +0.36% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22941.67 | +161.16 |
| +0.71% | ||
| TSX | 30531.88 | +60.20 |
| +0.20% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 48400.46 | +455.70 |
| +0.95% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26957.77 | -183.15 |
| -0.67% | ||
| SENSEX | 81790.12 | +582.95 |
| +0.72% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9479.14 | -12.11 |
| -0.13% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.213 | 3.187 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.715 | 3.673 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1540 | 4.1192 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7526 | 4.7114 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7168 | 0.7165 |
| US $ |
1.3950 | 1.3956 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6331 | 0.6123 |
| US $ |
1.1708 | 0.8541 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3885.70 | 3878.10 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 61.69 | 60.88 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1979, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker made his first major announcement: The Fed raised rates a full percentage point, to 12%, and said it would take tough measures to control the money supply. Volcker’s announcement, made on a Saturday night, became known as “the Saturday Night Massacre” for its murderous effect on bond prices—but it also broke the back of inflation.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the seventh day, climbing 0.2%, or 60.2 to 30,531.88 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 12.4%.
Today, 113 of 214 shares rose, while 99 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 on a trailing basis and 19.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.86t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.37% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 7.61% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 52.6207| 1.0| 38/13
Information Technology | 25.3134| 0.8| 7/2
Energy | 18.5657| 0.4| 29/9
Utilities | 4.4483| 0.4| 7/6
Financials | 3.2239| 0.0| 12/12
Health Care | -0.8495| -1.0| 1/3
Communication Services | -3.6107| -0.6| 1/4
Industrials | -4.8525| -0.1| 13/16
Real Estate | -5.9125| -1.2| 1/18
Consumer Discretionary | -8.7539| -0.9| 4/5
Consumer Staples | -20.0129| -2.0| 0/11
Shopify | 39.4500| 2.1| -29.4| 50.0
Canadian Natural | Resources | 12.8300| 2.0| -22.9| 2.0
Cenovus | 5.8010| 2.8| -30.0| 11.7
Brookfield Corp | -9.1370| -1.0| -53.2| 14.9
Dollarama | -9.6670| -2.7| 60.1| 27.3
Constellation | Software | -18.3500| -3.3| -39.9| -12.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted yet another record finish Monday, the sixth-straight, even as Rosenberg Research said Canada’s equity market looks “stretched and relatively overbought”, but did also add its commodity model “remains solidly in the upper half of the ‘neutral’ range.”
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 60 points, or 0.2%, to 30,531.88, buoyed by elevated commodity prices.
Most sectors were higher, led by Energy and the Battery Metals Index, both up about 1.3%.
Telecoms, Health Care and Industrials were lower, but none of them by more than 0.5%.
Market watchers now await a meeting of Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
The pair are expected to talk trade and security amid an ongoing tariff dispute.
BMO Economics in an overnight note said this year’s “trade turmoil” created a “tense and potentially combustible environment” heading into the upcoming review of the existing United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which must be held by July 2026.
BMO estimates the potential economic impact of several stylized USMCA scenarios: in its “Muddle Through” scenario, tariffs remain close to current levels, yielding a slowdown in Canada and limited impact in the United States; in its “No Special Treatment” scenario, both sides implement material but moderate new tariffs, creating larger economic dislocations; and in its “Continental Divide” scenario, both sides erect large tariff walls, resulting in a recession in Canada and a material slowdown for the United States.
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research in its latest ‘Strategizer’, a monthly guidebook for active investors, said its asset allocation tool retained an underweight equity/overweight bonds view heading into October, though it added the market for corporate credit looks “very stretched and far more expensive” than the stock market.
According to the note, stock-market focus should remain on the overseas indices, while the ‘Strategizer’ model is taking -5 points out of both bonds, to 40% from 45%, and cash, to 5% from 10%, with the proceeds put into equities, which was raised to 55% from 45%.
Rosenberg Research said relative scores favor Europe and Asia over the United States and Canada, adding Strategizer’s preference for ex-U.S. markets “fits the current macro policy environment”.
It noted Europe’s score rose to 41.2 in September, up from 36.1 earlier, and added: “Peak values above 60.0 were recorded in January and April, which turned out to be well-timed signals to increase exposure on the back of the fiscal spending announcement hype.
Since then, however, investors are in “wait and see” mode, reflected by a European model score that remains rangebound in “neutral” territory.
Yet, Europe is still more compelling than the U.S. and Canadian indices, which look stretched and relatively overbought when sentiment, positioning, and technical indicators are considered.”
On Canada’s score, the research said a losing streak was extended for a fifth consecutive month, dropping deeper into underweight territory at 17.3 after an already low reading of 21.9 last month.
It noted precious metals have provided strong support for Canadian stocks, which have climbed steadily in recent months.
Still, it added, Strategizer highlights extreme values of technical and sentiment indicators pointing to overbought conditions compared to historical norms (contrarian negative).
Among Canadian sectors, Materials (gold miners), Financials, and Real Estate remain in the top rankings from the month prior, with the only change being a jump up in Energy to #3 from #6.
Health Care, which ranked second last month, has now dropped to sixth.
Strategizer’s commodity model “remains solidly in the upper half of the ‘neutral’ range”, despite edging down slightly in September to 56.0 from 57.2 in August.
The research said: “As we have been highlighting of late, valuations remain historically cheap and positioning is depressed (contrarian positives), offsetting demand concerns from the state of the global economy (though a supply squeeze in various segments of the metals space is acting as a powerful antidote).
Crude oil ranks 5th, with supply concerns acting as a restraining force.”
The gold model, the research said, eroded for the third month in a row and is flashing a near-term ‘take profits’ signal, which it just did in the Rosie Macro Fund.
It added: “We remain long-term bullish on the yellow metal, but both sentiment and positioning scores remain at extreme levels (87th and 78th percentile readings, respectively), indicating that we are not alone in our bullish stance on the shiny yellow metal.
The technical picture has also become extremely overbought (the corresponding model subindex jumped to a 94th percentile from 57th in August).”
Of commodities today, gold continued its record run up, approaching the US$4,000 mark even as the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for December delivery was up $75.10 to US$3,984.00 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a second day as OPEC+ on the weekend decided on a monthly production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, less than reports last week expected but still adding fresh supply to an already flush market.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.81 to settle at $61.69 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $0.83 to $65.36.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in chipmakers sent stocks to all- time highs as Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s deal with OpenAI added fuel to the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered Wall Street. Bonds fell.
The dollar rose.
With the bull market on track for its three-year anniversary, momentum shows few signs of abating.
The S&P 500 climbed for a seventh straight session – the longest advance since May.
AMD soared 24%.
While giant Nvidia Corp. slid, a key gauge of semiconductors jumped about 3%.
Tesla Inc. led gains in mega caps as a series of social-media posts teased the unveiling of a product.
Monday’s AMD deal is the latest big-budget data center agreement this year.
It follows last month’s announcement that Nvidia was planning to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI amid demand for tools like ChatGPT and the computing power needed to make them run.
“Semiconductors are ‘on fire’,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“The AI narrative continues to gain momentum.”
With “animal spirits” surrounding the AI phenomenon getting yet another boost, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak notes it’s no surprise that issues like the US government shutdown are being mostly ignored by traders.
The S&P 500 closed around 6,740.
Comerica Inc. soared as Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the bank for about $10.9 billion in stock.
AppLovin Corp. sank as it was said to be probed over its data-collection practices.
Long-term Treasuries underperformed, joining a similar trend through much of Europe and Asia amid fiscal concerns.
Gold neared $4,000-an-ounce.
Bitcoin also hit a record.
Oil gained as OPEC+ raised production by a modest amount.
For almost as long as the AI boom has been in full swing, there have been warnings of a speculative bubble that could rival the dot-com craze of the late 1990s that ended in a spectacular crash and a wave of bankruptcies.
There was some fear that an AI bubble had already popped in late January, when China’s DeepSeek upended the market with the release of a competitive AI model.
But Silicon Valley remained largely undeterred.
In the months that followed, tech companies redoubled their AI spending plans, and investors resumed cheering on these bets.
“When the tech bubble in the stock market inflated during 1999, we don’t recall as much chatter about a bubble as we are hearing today.
From a contrarian perspective, it is comforting that there is a bubble in bubble fears,” said veteran Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni.
The founder of Yardeni Research noted that the Google search index for “AI bubble” rose to 100 on Oct. 2 from zero in mid-September.
“We are counting on another better-than-expected earnings reporting season for Q3 over the next few weeks to support the stock market’s rally to record highs,” Yardeni said.
“In addition, we expect that the AI and cloud companies won’t disappoint either.”
“Today’s lofty tech sector valuations differ in nature with the ‘irrational exuberance’ of the tech bubble of the 1990s and 2000s: capital expenditures have been funded out of free cash flows underpinned by high profitability,” said Naomi Fink at Amova Asset Management.
To Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise, it’s possible that some level of investment in the AI buildout today may not yield the degree of return investors hope for, and valuations among some of the leaders would likely need to be adjusted downward.
“However, given the size and scale of companies and industries that have yet to tap into AI in a meaningful way, we are less concerned that we are on the cusp of a dot-com bubble just yet,” he said.
US companies are set to enjoy a better-than-expected earnings season as a robust economy and a solid outlook for AI have left estimates looking too low, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
They also expect the so-called Magnificent Seven group of technology heavyweights to beat expectations.
At Ritholtz Wealth Management, Callie Cox says markets feel “untouchable,” which is why there are so many people talking about valuations.
“Higher valuations aren’t unusual, but earnings need to grab the baton for the rally to continue,” she said.
“Ideally, we want to see profits support prices.”
“We’re in a self-fulfilling rally — earnings are strong and getting stronger, investors are shrugging off a lack of data, and even a government shutdown can’t shake their confidence,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“And with half of the past decade’s returns typically coming in Q4, the main story right now is momentum.”
Bespoke Investment Group strategists noted that US investors will observe two notable milestones in coming days — Wednesday marks six months since the S&P 500’s hit this year’s lows, and Sunday is set to be the three-year anniversary of the current bull market.
The gauge’s rolling six-month change crossed above 30% for the first time since Oct. 2, 2020, Bespoke said in a note that analyzed the 12 days since 1953 when that happened for the first time in at least a year.
“In terms of forward market performance following the 12 days, the S&P has definitely shown some weakness in the very near term, but going out three months to one year, returns are slightly better than normal,” the strategists said.
A multi-month winning streak in US stocks is poised to continue based on an equity indicator from Barclays Plc that correctly predicted September’s rally in the face of concern over seasonal weakness.
The Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, which analyzes 19 inputs like market internals, positioning and economic data to find inflection points in the market, implies an 82% chance that the S&P 500 will advance in the next two months, with an average gain of 4% during that time, based on data going back to 2015.
“Another round of above-consensus results and positive takeaways around a resilient consumer could give investors a confidence boost heading into year-end amidst government uncertainty and a shaky labor market,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte wrote that aggregate equity positioning remains overweight but not stretched, although there are growing pockets of momentum chasing in large caps.
Solid earnings growth and extreme valuations are calling for further broadening of the global equity rally, Citigroup strategists led by Beata Manthey said.
“We remain optimistic heading into the fourth quarter, particularly with macro tailwinds that are expected to lift the stock market.
However, there are subtle signs of diverging momentum as we enter October that warrant vigilance, particularly with over-extended stocks that have risen substantially in recent weeks,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
A brief consolidation or shallow pullback would be welcomed to set up better risk-reward opportunities, he said.
“As of now, the stock market is shrugging off the government shutdown and is more focused on earnings optimism and the prospect of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts,” said Robert Edwards at Edwards Asset Management.
Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump said 25% duties on medium- and heavy- duty trucks would begin Nov. 1, the latest expansion of his tariff regime aimed at protecting domestic industries.
* OpenAI is making it easier for ChatGPT users to connect with third-party apps within the chatbot to carry out tasks, the company’s latest bid to turn its flagship product into a key gateway for digital services.
* Micron Technology Inc. climbed as Morgan Stanley upgraded the shares to overweight, saying the chipmaker is headed for multiple quarters of double-digit price increases.
* Apple Inc. faces an investigation in France over the use of voice recordings made with its assistant Siri.
* The US Supreme Court declined a chance to open social media companies to lawsuits over content recommended by their algorithms, turning away an appeal that accused Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook of radicalizing a man who killed nine South Carolina churchgoers.
* Boeing Co. is guiding suppliers that 737 Max output could reach a 42-jet monthly tempo as soon as this month, according to people familiar with its plans, highlighting growing optimism at the plane maker as it works to win approval for the move from US
regulators.
* Verizon Communications Inc., conceding it has fallen behind rivals in wireless and broadband service, replaced its chief executive officer of seven years, appointing a new leader with experience in telecom and financial technology.
* The US Supreme Court turned away an appeal by ticketing giant Live Nation Entertainment Inc. in a consumer antitrust suit, dealing a blow to the company’s effort to manage its antitrust woes by channeling cases into arbitration.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. acquired the online news site the Free Press and named founder Bari Weiss editor-in-chief of CBS News, a move likely to stir controversy inside and outside of the news organization.
* Orsted A/S raised 60 billion Danish kroner ($9.4 billion) through a rights offering that’s critical for the company to tackle the downturn facing the wind power industry.
* Nvidia Corp.’s major server production partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported 11% growth in quarterly sales, signaling healthy demand for the chips and servers needed to develop artificial intelligence.
“AI-related equity baskets are up by double digits this year, with the rally expanding beyond the Magnificent Seven into other parts of tech like memory chips and storage shares.
That raises the stakes for these companies to deliver on results to keep justifying these gains and sparks concern about how long the momentum can last.”
— Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 2.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1711
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3482
* The Japanese yen fell 1.9% to 150.33 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.2% to $125,458.73
* Ether rose 5% to $4,724.56
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.74%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $61.76 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.9% to $3,960.20 an ounce.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
What the superior man seeks is in himself. What the inferior man seeks is in others. -Confucius, 551-478 BC.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com