Dear Friends:

Tangents: HAPPY HALLOWEEN 👻!
October 31, 1984: Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated near her residence by two Sikh security guards.
October31, 2019: NREL and University of Tokyo researchers develop a nanocrystal-microlens solar film, capturing more infrared light  and pushing solar efficiency forward.

John Keats, poet, b. 1795.
Helmut Newton, photographer, b.1920.
Harry Houdini, magician, b. 1926.
Dan Rather, journalist, b. 1931.

Hundreds celebrate Day of the Dead in Mexico City
Día de los Muertos celebrations have begun in Mexico City, with hundreds taking to the streets dressed as La Catrina, the iconic Mexican skeleton figure.

The ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ hat is inspired by centuries-old fashion
A traditional Korean hat featured in Netflix’s hit movie “KPop Demon Hunters” has become a must-have for fans.

This burrito is everything you need to know about America’s economy
Chipotle reported miserable earnings this week and cut its sales-growth forecast for the third-straight quarter. CNN’s David Goldman looks at what this may reveal about America’s economy.

California museum’s collection looted
Police are investigating the theft of more than 1,000 items taken from the Oakland Museum of California. Here’s what we know.

Amazon explains why it laid off 14,000 workers
Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy said the company cut thousands of employees because of “culture.”
7500: That will soon be the annual limit for refugees entering the US, according to a memo published by the Trump administration on Thursday. It is a dramatic decrease from last year’s ceiling of 125,000 set under President Joe Biden.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Marseille, France
Technicians install the crown on a Virgin Mary statue at the top of Notre-Dame de la Garde after restoration works. The basilica is known in the city as Bonne Mère (Good Mother)
Photograph: Christophe Simon/AFP/Getty Images

Begrudgement
a bronze sculpture by the Canadian artist Ruth Abernethy.
Photograph: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

Orlando, US
Children in Mexican costumes take part in a Day of the Dead celebration in Florida. The tradition honours lost loved ones with colourful altars, music and festive gatherings
Photograph: Ronen Tivony/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 31st , 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1933, Albert H. Wiggin, former president of the Chase National Bank, testified that his personal investment companies had borrowed money from Chase to short-sell $8 million worth of its own stock as it crumbled in the Crash of 1929. The revelation inspired Congress to add a provision to the Securities Exchange Act banning corporate officers from short-selling their own shares.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.3%, or 81.76 to 30,260.74 in Toronto.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Methanex Corp. had the largest increase, rising 16.4%.
Today, 141 of 214 shares rose, while 69 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This month, the index rose 0.8%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.3%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.8% below its 52-week high on Oct. 15, 2025 and 36.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.81t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 12.54% compared with 12.89% in the previous session and the average of 10.03% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 60.4954| 0.6| 21/2
Information Technology | 30.1633| 0.9| 8/1
Industrials | 11.1197| 0.3| 19/10
Consumer Staples | 9.8473| 1.0| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 5.2184| 0.6| 5/4
Real Estate | 3.6183| 0.7| 18/1
Health Care | 2.2206| 2.7| 4/0
Utilities | 1.0733| 0.1| 9/4
Communication Services | -3.1785| -0.5| 1/3
Energy | -6.1402| -0.1| 29/10
Materials | -32.6585| -0.7| 17/33
Canadian National | 15.2900| 3.0| 60.4| -7.9
Constellation | Software | 14.5000| 2.9| 8.5| -17.0
RBC | 13.2600| 0.7| -46.0| 18.5
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -6.8840| -0.9| -10.4| 100.6
Waste Connections | -6.9130| -1.6| 14.5| -4.6
Cameco | -9.5800| -2.2| -6.1| 93.9
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a second-straight day Friday as CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld guessed the Bank of Canada may move next week to sound “a bit less definitive about whether they are done or not” with rate cuts, while he also played down fears around rising federal deficits provided the government sees a “credible path” to lowering them ahead.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 81.76 points to 30,260.74.
Most sectors were higher, led by Health Care up near 3% and Info Tech up 1%.
In contrast, Telecom was the biggest decliner, but only down 0.25%.
While the Bank of Canada, as expected, lowered its key benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on Wednesday, a second-straight monthly cut, the consensus among most market watchers was that the central bank in commentary around the decision indicated it was now on hold.
But Shenfeld, Chief Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, believes the planned appearance of BoC Governor, Tiff Macklem, for a ‘Fireside Chat’ at the The Logic Summit in Toronto on Monday to talk about the state of Canada’s economy may be worth keeping an eye on.
The Governor’s remarks will not be published, but audio and video webcasts will be available, according to the BoC’s website.
Shenfeld said his guess is that Macklem “might want to try to undo some of the hawkish market reaction to their rate announcement, by sounding a bit less definitive about whether they are done or not”.
Even if a steady 2.25% overnight rate is the most likely outcome, the central bank can’t be so sure of that when the whole macro-outlook is still this uncertain, he added.
A day later, Tuesday, the federal government will deliver its long awaited and overdue fiscal budget amid concerns around rising deficits as Canada is stuck in an ongoing trade battle with the United States, its largest trading partner.
Shenfeld said a deficit in the $80 billion to $90 billion range for fiscal 2025-2026 “shouldn’t create any major waves in the bond market, provided the budget shows a credible path to lower deficits ahead”.
Elsewhere, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, in an early version of his regular ‘The Global Week Ahead’ column said the federal government might not have to go as high as expected with its deficits.
Holt said: “The cloak of secrecy over a budget that Ottawa initially did not wish to present this year will finally be lifted on Tuesday.
A hot mess of numbers, some firm, some fiction, and sloganeering lies in store as Canada seeks to address two challenges: a moribund pre-Trump economy and the new realities that U.S. isolationism present.
I admire PM Carney’s understanding of the forces at work in the global economy and generally agree, but his chosen policy path may not be the only option and perhaps not the best.”
Adding to that, Holt cited a “parallel challenge” in that the U.S Supreme Court commences its review of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on Wednesday.
Holt said: “There are other options for applying tariffs, but eventually striking down use of the IEEPA would be a major blow to the Trump administration and, by corollary, raise the risk of overdoing it on fiscal stimulus in Canada.”
Of commodities, gold prices had fallen by late afternoon on Friday even as the dollar rose to a three-month high on a calming in international trade tensions following a one-year trade agreement between China and the United States.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down US$6.00 to US$4,009.90 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher ahead of a weekend OPEC+ meeting likely to end with another production hike into an already over-supplied market.
WTI crude for December delivery closed up $0.41 to settle at $60.98 per barrel, while December Brent crude was last seen up $0.04 to $65.04.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bull market got fresh fuel at end of a month that’s lived up to its volatile reputation, with optimism about earnings outweighing worries about a rally that’s heavily concentrated on tech giants.
Following a pause in the S&P 500’s roughly $17 trillion surge, the gauge climbed on solid outlooks from Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc.
To be fair, not every mega cap gained.
And the iPhone maker’s advance sputtered as a sales drop in China tempered excitement for what promises to be a busy holiday season.
Bonds steadied after a post-Federal Reserve rout.
The dollar rose.
From geopolitical to trade risks, a US shutdown and high valuations, traders had a lot to digest in October.
Ultimately what’s prevailed was confidence in Corporate America and bets that rate cuts will keep momentum going for earnings.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, it’s been a test of investors’ bullish thesis amid news on trade, monetary policy and earnings.
“There is increased skepticism about the participation in the rally, though many see this as the next in the line of ‘glass half empty’ arguments from bears that have seen most of their previous arguments fade,” he said.
“Most indicators continue to support a strong market through year-end.”
Since the April meltdown, the S&P 500 has soared almost 40%, notching its longest monthly advance since 2021.
The superlative is even better for the Nasdaq 100: a seven-month surge that turned out to be the longest winning run in eight years, buoyed by tech’s pristine balance-sheets and AI bullishness.
The S&P 500 rose to around 6,840.
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven mega caps climbed 1.2%.
Amazon jumped almost 10%.
The Treasury market’s October momentum stalled after Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed a December rate cut – and some officials said they didn’t support a reduction this week.
The dollar saw its best month since July.
Oil pared gains Friday as President Donald Trump denied he was considering a military strike on Venezuela.
While the backdrop for equities remains positive, there’s been concern about narrowing breadth that could jeopardize the advance in the near term.
“The stock market’s narrowing participation suggests that while some stocks are enjoying a Halloween treat, many others are left empty-handed,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
Given current divergences in market breadth, Johnson maintains his view that the better risk/reward opportunities lie in buying dips within this bull cycle.
If history is any guide, November kicks off the best six months of the year for US equities. But the question is whether those year-end gains have already been priced into the market after one of the S&P 500’s biggest stretches since the 1950s.
Following one of the fastest recoveries in stock market history, the US equity benchmark trades at 23 times forward earnings, well above its average of the past two decades.
Michael Burry, who made his name shorting the US housing market, sent what appears to be a cryptic warning to retail investors about market exuberance..
The flip side is that earnings season remains top of mind for equity investors, and so far things are going well.
Results from more than 60% of the companies in the S&P 500 are already in, and the vast majority of those firms have topped estimates.
Meantime, Hackett at Nationwide notes that we now enter the best two-month seasonal period on the calendar, with an average return of 3.3% since 1950.
“We are in the seasonally strong fourth quarter, so we are buying dips,” said Thomas Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors.
“There are many sectors posting double-digit growth, so this is not only an AI story but rather demonstrates US corporates and multinationals are able to generate strong earnings gains.”
There’s no question that flows remain supportive for stocks.
Global equities lured $17.2 billion in the week ending Oct. 29, said Bank of America Corp., citing EPFR data.
And BofA strategist Michael Hartnett bets the AI equity leadership “ain’t budging for the time being.”
“We maintain our conviction that AI-related stocks should drive further equity performance and believe that under allocated investors should add exposure to the theme through a diversified approach,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Ryan Grabinski at Strategas noted that mentions of “AI” in corporate transcripts continue to accelerate.
“Any concerns I previously had about a slowdown in capital expenditure appear to have been put to rest, at least for another quarter, as investment activity remains strong,” he said.
As enthusiasm and spending around artificial intelligence expands, AI is becoming increasingly integrated into sectors beyond technology, Grabinski said.
“This trend not only creates broader opportunities but should also help support a more diversified market advance,” he concluded.
So far this year, the S&P 500 is up around 16%.
Historically, January through October gains in excess of 10% have presaged positive results over the next two months, according to Jay Kaeppel at SentimenTrader.
“An 86% historical win rate during a typically seasonally strong time of year suggests favorable odds,” he said.
“Nevertheless, traders are encouraged to allocate capital intelligently and to contemplate what action they might take if things do not go as planned.”
With markets hovering around all-time highs, driven once again by a handful of stocks, a key question we’ve been receiving in meetings lately is whether performance will broaden out, according to Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
Even though valuations remain at their long-term median for mid-caps, the lack of earnings growth over the past several years led him to conclude that the market weighted large-cap leadership will continue through year-end.
“Our sense is, with the AI spending narrative continuing to play a key role in markets, combined with large cap fund flows/retail investor engagement, large caps will likely continue to be favored,” Senyek said.
“We don’t see the market broadening out until there is a sustainable shift in fundamentals/earnings for small and mid-caps.”
“The tech-fueled rally continues its relentless march forward, with markets climbing higher this week in what has become an increasingly concentrated fashion,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management.
“The profitability of US tech isn’t just strong; it’s actually improving, demonstrating resilience that few anticipated.”
With equities continuing their concentrated progression this week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have clearly dominated the growth game, while value stocks retreated, surrendering their year-to-date edge to growth stocks, he noted.
Growth stocks trade at a wide valuation premium to value stocks today, but there is a crucial difference from 2000:
Fundamentals are helping to support current valuations, noted Jeremiah Buckley at Janus Henderson Investors.
The gap in profitability between growth and value indexes has widened over time, helping explain why the valuation gap has grown as well, he said.
“Since 2002, increases in price-to-book ratios have been matched by comparable increases in return on equity.
During the 2000 tech bubble, by contrast, growth valuations surged without any fundamental support,” Buckley concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. posted robust cloud growth that reassured investors that the tens of billions of dollars the company and its peers are pouring into artificial intelligence will pay off.
* Apple Inc. delivered mixed results in the latest quarter, including a surprise sales decline in China, tempering investor excitement for what promises to be a busy holiday season.
* Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang still hopes to sell chips from the company’s Blackwell lineup to customers in China, though he has no current plans to do so, he told reporters Friday.
* Just this month, Meta Platforms Inc. has secured about $60 billion in capital to build data centers, part of its spending to get ahead in the artificial intelligence race.  Half of that won’t show up on the social media giant’s balance sheet as debt.
* North America’s two dominant oil companies are carving divergent paths as the crude market staggers toward what’s widely expected to be a hefty supply glut.
** Exxon Mobil Corp. is pressing ahead with a raft of expansion projects, even as OPEC and its allies increase production. Chevron Corp. meanwhile is positioning itself to wring cash from existing operations to weather the market downturn.
* Cloudflare Inc. posted better-than-expected sales figures that topped quarterly and annual estimates, following a reorganization and the addition of more large enterprise customers.
* Coinbase Global Inc., the largest US crypto exchange, reported revenue that exceeded Wall Street’s third-quarter estimates on the back of an uptick in trading while token prices climbed to record highs.
* Tether Holdings SA recorded more than $10 billion in unaudited profit for the first nine months of 2025, according to a blog post on Friday.
* Carlyle Group Inc. posted a slide in earnings at its private equity arm during the third quarter, leaning on the credit and secondaries businesses to carry the firm as it navigates a choppy dealmaking recovery.
* Colgate-Palmolive Co. reported third-quarter earnings above Wall Street’s consensus.
* AbbVie Inc.’s beauty business weakened again last quarter, underscoring ongoing struggles in its aesthetics division even as booming sales of new anti-inflammatory drugs fueled higher- than-expected revenue and a raised annual forecast.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A major leg higher for the S&P 500 will require a fresh catalyst, but a declining vol backdrop should keep stocks melting up even as the macro-outlook grows murkier.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1528
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3141
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.11 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $109,660.54
* Ether rose 3.4% to $3,885.66
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.09%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.63%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.41%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $60.91 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,998.88 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Part of the genius of the ancient laws, by which the Spartan polity had maintained herself intact over six centuries, was the leavening of youth with age throughout all institutions.  There were veterans everywhere; no club or clique escaped supervision by its elders. –Steven Pressfield,  b. 1943, Tides of War.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com