October 31, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Halloween!

According to the National Confectioners Association, sweets-makers reap 8% of their annual sales during Halloween, making it candy’s biggest holiday – $10.14 billion, up from $8.05 billion in 2020.

Boy’s family transforms wheelchair into creative Halloween costume.  If you’re in the mood for wholesome content, watch this family transform their 5-year-old boy’s wheelchair into an epic costume.

October 31, 2011: The global population of humans reaches seven billion.  This day is now recognized by the United Nations as the Day of Seven Billion.
On Oct. 31, 1984, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated near her residence by two Sikh security guards.  Go to article »

John Keats, poet, b. 1795.
Harry Houdini, magician, b. 1926.
Dan Rather, TV journalist, b.1931.

Officials say the ivory-billed woodpecker is extinct…But one man has made it his life’s mission to prove the bird is still alive. Check out this interactive story on his efforts.

The 100 best horror movies of all time.

Egyptians helped discover King Tut’s tomb. Now, they’re finally being recognized. British archaeologist Howard Carter is often credited with finding Tutankhamun’s tomb, but the names and identities of the Egyptians who did much of the work are largely unknown.  Now, in the exhibition “Tutankhamun: Excavating the Archive” at the University of Oxford’s Bodleian libraries, which runs through Feb. 5, 2023, photos of the Egyptians who uncovered King Tutankhamun’s tomb are displayed in an attempt to recognize them.  Full Story: Live Science (10/31)

The Day of the Dead isn’t Halloween. Here are its roots, from Aztec goddess worship to modern Mexican celebration: The Day of the Dead might sound like a solemn affair, but Mexico’s famous holiday is actually a lively commemoration of the departed.  The nationwide festivities, which include a massive parade in Mexico City, typically begin the night of Oct. 31 with families sitting vigil at grave sites. Mexican tradition holds that on Nov. 1 and 2, the dead awaken to reconnect and celebrate with their living family and friends. Given the timing, it may be tempting to equate Day of the Dead with Halloween, a ghost-themed U.S. holiday. But the two holidays express fundamentally different beliefs.  Full Story: Live Science (10/30)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Seoul, South Korea
A memorial in front of City Hall for victims of the Halloween celebration crush in the Itaewon district in which at least 153 people died
Photograph: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty

Noida, India
Hindus perform rituals to the Sun god in the Yamuna during Chhath Parva festival on the outskirts of Delhi
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty

Mangroves & Landscape – Winner | Walakiri Dancing Trees by Loïc Dupuis, Indonesia
The sun rises along the peaceful beaches of East Sumba in Indonesia. “I wanted to capture the beauty and fragility of this unique wonder. We need to protect and visit places like this with great care, so future generations can also enjoy them.”
Photograph: Loïc Dupuis/Mangrove Photographer of the Year
Market Closes for October 31, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
🎃 On this day in 1933, in one of Wall Street’s nastiest Halloween surprises, Albert H. Wiggin, former president of the Chase National Bank, testified that his personal investment companies had borrowed money from Chase to short-sell $8 million worth of Chase’s own stock as it crumbled in the Crash of 1929. The revelation inspired Congress to add a provision to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 banning corporate officers from short-selling their own shares.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 19,426.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.5% on Oct. 20 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
NFI Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.6%.
Today, 153 of 236 shares fell, while 82 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.5%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 5.3%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2020
* The index declined 7.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.7% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.7% in the past 5 days and rose 5.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.56% compared with 22.72% in the previous session and the average of 22.25% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -25.9432| -0.4| 9/20
Materials | -19.8724| -0.9| 11/40
Information Technology | -12.0887| -1.1| 4/10
Consumer Staples | -9.0615| -1.1| 1/10
Real Estate | -6.1691| -1.3| 2/20
Consumer Discretionary | -5.4169| -0.8| 5/9
Communication Services | -3.6953| -0.4| 1/6
Utilities | -3.1478| -0.3| 6/10
Industrials | 2.3150| 0.1| 12/15
Health Care | 3.5008| 4.3| 3/4
Energy | 34.5227| 0.9| 28/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Asset Management | -7.2760| -1.4| 29.8| -29.4
Constellation Software | -6.7340| -2.5| 17.2| -16.1
TD Bank | -6.4680| -0.6| -39.4| -10.1
Canadian Pacific | 6.5940| 1.0| 79.2| 11.6
Suncor Energy | 9.5010| 2.2| 31.1| 48.1
Nutrien | 11.2000| 2.7| 36.8| 21.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks pared their monthly surge as bond yields climbed, with investors awaiting Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision for clues on whether officials will dial back the pace of rate hikes as early as December.
Big tech weighed heavily on the S&P 500, while energy shares whipsawed on news that President Joe Biden will call on Congress to consider tax penalties for producers accruing record profits.
Equities may also have come under pressure as pension funds that rebalance on a monthly basis potentially dumped shares amid an 8% rally for the US benchmark gauge in October.
A selloff in bonds across the curve sent two-year US yields to around 4.5%. Swap markets are pricing in a 75-basis-point hike this week amid the Fed’s most-aggressive tightening campaign in four decades.
The outlook for the following meetings is less certain, with traders seeing a “coin toss” between an increase of that size and a 50-basis-point boost in the final month of 2022.
“This week will be loaded with scary stuff, from the Fed meeting and press conference to employment data on Friday,” wrote Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management. “Market expectations are for the Fed to begin signaling that their very aggressive rate hiking cycle will begin slowing down.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic is joining strategists who believe the aggressive hiking is nearing an end.
The US will likely raise rates by 50 basis points in December and pause after one more 25-basis-point hike in the first quarter, he said. Indicators such as the inversion of the yield curve between 10-year and three-month Treasuries “all support a Fed pivot sooner rather than later,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Although October can evoke fear on Wall Street following stock market crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008, it’s living up to its reputation as the best month in US midterm election years.
Now traders are holding out hope this October will follow a historical pattern of being a “bear-market killer” following a turbulent year for equities.
When it comes to elections, the fourth quarter of midterm years and the following first quarter historically have been the two strongest of the 16-quarter presidential cycle, delivering average gains of 6.4% and 6.9% respectively for the S&P 500, according to investment research firm CFRA.
November has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for US stocks, said Bespoke Investment Group.
The S&P 500 has experienced an average gain of 0.82% with positive returns 69% of the time, according to data going back to 1983.
Over the last 10 years, the gauge saw a median advance of 1.26% and gains nine out of 10 times.
To Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management, while the recent rally in stocks didn’t really look sustainable, that doesn’t mean markets can’t keep grinding higher in coming weeks, “provided that the Fed and labor and inflation data don’t disappoint.”
Global economic reports didn’t help sentiment on Monday.
Euro-area inflation surged to a fresh all-time high, while the bloc’s economy lost momentum — reinforcing fears that a recession is now all-but unavoidable.
China’s factory and services activity contracted in October, with signs that things could worsen in the coming months.
Wheat prices soared after Russia suspended a deal guaranteeing safe passage of Ukrainian exports, with Moscow warning that shipments become “much riskier” without its participation even as new vessels loaded with crops set sail
from Ukraine. 
Key events this week:
* Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision, Tuesday
* US construction spending, ISM manufacturing index, Tuesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment, Wednesday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.8% to $0.9883
* The British pound fell 1.3% to $1.1468
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 148.68 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $20,374.98
* Ether fell 2% to $1,563.92
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.05%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.14%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $86.16 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,636.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Singleness of purpose is one of the chief essentials for success in life, no matter what may be one’s aim. –John D. Rockefeller Sr., 1839-1937.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com