October 3, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Happy Rosh Hoshana.  Shanah Tovah um’tukah.  Happy New Year!

October 3, 1932: Iraq gains independence from the United Kingdom.  The country had been under British control for 12 years.
October 3, 1941: The Maltese Falcon premieres in New York City.
1990: German Reunification: On Oct. 3, 1990, West Germany and East Germany ended 45 years of postwar division, declaring the creation of a new unified country.  Go to article >>

Certain college grads can now be air traffic controllers immediately
The FAA says that graduates from two schools can now bypass the agency’s backlogged training academy. Officials hope it will help tackle air traffic controller shortages.

Meet SpaceHopper, a three-legged hopping asteroid explorer
A bouncy device created by students in Switzerland is designed for exploring microgravity environments, like the surface of asteroids. It could help humanity push further into the cosmos, experts say.

This little robot is helping sick children attend school
For children with long-term illness or struggling with mental health issues, the AV1 robot (pictured below) can take their place in classes and help them stay connected with friends. Here’s how it works.

Monster X-class flare launches massive solar storm towards Earth — and could trigger auroras this weekend
The sun just unleashed one of its largest solar explosions in recent years, temporarily causing a radio blackout on Earth and spitting out a coronal mass ejection that will likely collide with our planet this weekend.
Read More.

More people are surviving avalanches than decades ago — here’s why
A study of avalanche survival data shows that survival rates have increased and rescues are faster, but time is still critical for buried victims. Read More.

James Webb telescope watches ancient supernova replay 3 times — and confirms something is seriously wrong in our understanding of the universe
The James Webb Space Telescope has zoomed in on an ancient supernova, revealing fresh evidence that a crisis in cosmology called the Hubble tension isn’t going anywhere soon. Read More.

Flu shots have changed this year — here’s why
Unlike past flu shots, flu vaccines for the 2024-2025 season don’t contain the “Yamagata lineage” of influenza viruses because evidence suggests that type of flu no longer exists. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Leiden, Netherlands
King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands at celebrations for the 450th anniversary of the ‘Leidens Ontzet’, the liberation of the city in 1574
Photograph: Robin Utrecht/dana press/Rex/Shutterstock

London, UK
Henri De Toulouse-Lautrec’s La Femme Tatouée, on display at Christie’s in London before its 20th/21st Century London Evening Sale
Photograph: Lucy North/PA

​​​​​​​İzmir, Turkey
Flamingos rest at the Çakalburnu Lagoon which hosts many migratory bird species, baby fish and other creatures at the Balçova district. Flamingos rest on one leg and use less muscle strength to maintain more heat and balance
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 3^rd, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
💸 On this day in 1913, less than 20 years after federal income tax was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, it came back from the dead as the Underwood-Simons bill was signed into law by President Woodrow Wilson.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.1%, or 33.05 to 23,968.50 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 117 of 223 shares fell, while 105 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.8%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 12.7%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 14%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 34% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.6% below its 52-week high on Oct. 2, 2024 and 28.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.8t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.62% compared with 9.71% in the previous session and the average of 11.84% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -35.3686| -1.2| 20/31
Financials | -18.2979| -0.2| 12/15
Information Technology | -12.8929| -0.6| 3/7
Utilities | -12.2811| -1.3| 3/12
Real Estate | -8.8418| -1.6| 1/19
Communication Services | -6.7184| -0.9| 1/4
Industrials | -6.7093| -0.2| 17/10
Consumer Discretionary | -4.7534| -0.6| 5/6
Health Care | 0.5430| 0.7| 2/2
Consumer Staples | 3.5113| 0.4| 4/7
Energy | 68.7568| 1.7| 37/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -13.4500| -0.8| -4.4| 22.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -10.7600| -1.5| -44.0| 5.9
Constellation Software | -8.7330| -1.5| -12.3| 31.3
Cenovus Energy | 8.3560| 4.0| -39.6| 10.0
Suncor | 12.4300| 2.7| -50.2| 26.2
Canadian Natural Resources | 15.3200| 2.2| -78.5| 10.2
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — US stocks churned as traders weighed the prospect of escalating conflict in the Middle East against positive economic data.
Crude and the dollar extended advances.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 ended the day marginally lower after choppy trading for much of the morning.
The mood on Wall Street soured after puzzling comments from President Joe Biden on if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities.
Oil benchmarks surged.
Brent crude climbed above $77 a barrel for the longest run of daily gains since August, while West Texas Intermediate passed $73.
Investors are concerned that, should Israel strike critical Iranian assets, the Islamic Republic will lash out and escalate the conflict, dragging in more countries and potentially disrupting global energy shipments.
That’s left mainstay US equity benchmarks on course for their first weekly loss in four as the world awaits an Israeli response to Iran’s missile strike.
Israel’s warplanes bombed Beirut overnight, after eight of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon in battles against Hezbollah.
Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, resumed its climb, flashing a warning sign that more stocks volatility lies ahead.
“The VIX is signaling that we are still in the midst of the ‘iffy October’ period,” Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee said.
But, he added, with multiple historical factors in the S&P 500’s favor, “we ultimately expect investors to buy this dip.”
Earlier in the session, equities briefly erased losses after a readout showed the US services sector in September expanded at the fastest pace since February 2023.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services jumped to 54.9, beating estimates.
Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
Other data showed applications for US unemployment benefits rose slightly last week to a level that is consistent with limited number of layoffs.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, were little changed at 1.83 million in the previous week, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.
The readouts “were both solid in September,” according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Abiel Reinhart.
Initial jobless claims “on balance continue to look quite low, which is a good sign for the job market,” he wrote in a research note.
To Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, international conflict has returned as a driver for markets.
“There might be a pressure to rebalance, because markets are stretched and I don’t see that as being particularly positive for US equities,” he said.
Amid all the geopolitical uncertainty, investors are looking for further signals on the health of the US economy, with the monthly payrolls report due on Friday.
The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% in September while payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000.
“I am of course nervous heading into tomorrow’s jobs report,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said on Bloomberg Television. “If the unemployment rate ticks up, I wouldn’t be surprised that markets would shift back toward expecting 50 basis points and then it is a question of how the Fed may react.”
BMO’s Vail Hartman expects Friday’s data to leave the Fed’s next move up in the air; “NFP will do no more than raise or lower the bar for the remaining pre-Fed data to justify supersizing the next rate cut.”
On the labor front, investors are looking for progress in resolving the longshoremen’s strike that’s shuttered critical US ports.
According to a Cowen analyst Jason Seidl, who cited a call with a panelist “close to the port strike,” a resolution could be reach by Monday.
In corporate news, Tesla Inc. slid on the departure of a top executive ahead of the unveiling of its driverless robotaxi next week.
Levi Strauss shares slumped after the apparel company lowered its revenue growth outlook for the full year.
Bloomberg’s dollar index gained for a fourth day, bolstered by the rise in Treasury yields.
The British pound is on pace for its worst day since 2022 after a Bank of England official suggested the central bank could take a more aggressive approach to lowering interest rates. 

Key events this week:
* US nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1028
* The British pound fell 1.1% to $1.3122
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 146.88 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $60,964.44
* Ether fell 1.4% to $2,352.11
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.85%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.14%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.02%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.4% to $73.87 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Winnie Hsu, John Cheng, Chiranjivi Chakraborty, Robert Brand, Margaryta Kirakosian and Sujata Rao.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Your vision will become clear only when you can look into your own heart.  Who looks outside, dreams; who looks inside, awakens. –Carl Jung, 1875-1961.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com