Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
Departure of the Swallows, Capistrano, California.
October 23, 1850: the first National Women’s Rights Convention opens in Worcester, Massachusetts, galvanizing the U.S. women’s suffrage movement.
October 23, 1915: More than 25,000 women march up Fifth Ave. to advocate for women’s suffrage.
October 23, 1956: Hungarian Revolution.
October 23, 1989: Hungarian Independence.
October 23, 2001: Apple Computer Inc. introduced the iPod portable digital music player.
| Plants self-organize in a ‘hidden order,’ echoing pattern found across nature | |||
Scientists have discovered a “perfect disordered hyperuniform” pattern in how plants arrange themselves across many dry landscapes that allows them to make the most of water resources. Read More.
The newly discovered “twilight” asteroid, 2025 SC79, was obscured by the sun’s glare until an astronomer pointed the Dark Energy Camera at it, highlighting the potential dangers
Researchers have unveiled ice XXI, a new form of ice that’s solid at room temperatures when subjected to immense pressure. Read More.
Inspired by animal vision, the eye could become part of soft robots without any electronic components. Read More. King Charles to meet Pope Leo XIV at the Vatican Suzanne Somers’ husband created an AI clone of his late wife General Motors unveils ‘eyes off’ driving NCAA allows college athletes to bet on professional sports starting November 1 |
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Christmas Island, Australia
A boy walks among red crabs during their annual migration
Photograph: Parks Australia/AP
Fujikawaguchiko, Japan
People look at Mount Fuji, covered with its first snow of the season
Photograph: Kyodo/Reuters
New York City, US
The Statue of Liberty in New York Harbour
Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 23rd , 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46734.61 | +144.20 |
| +0.31% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6738.44 | +39.04 |
| +0.58% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22941.80 | +201.40 |
| +0.89% | ||
| TSX | 30186.28 | +203.30 |
| +0.68% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 48641.61 | -666.18 |
| -1.35% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25967.98 | +186.21 |
| +0.72% | ||
| SENSEX | 84556.40 | +130.06 |
| +0.15% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9578.57 | +63.57 |
| +0.67% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.095 | 3.062 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.583 | 3.554 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0009 | 3.9493 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.5786 | 4.5306 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7147 | 0.7146 |
| US $ |
1.3991 | 1.3993 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6254 | 0.6152 |
| US $ |
1.1618 | 0.8607 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4070.00 | 4169.60 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 62.62 | 59.27 |
Market Commentary
Time wounds all deals. –Stephen Allen Schwrazman, b. 1947.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.7%, or 203.3 to 30,186.28 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.1%.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.7%.
Today, 156 of 213 shares rose, while 54 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This month, the index rose 0.5%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.3%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2% below its 52-week high on Oct. 15, 2025 and 35.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 1.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.79t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 12.64% compared with 12.69% in the previous session and the average of 8.64% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology | 79.1771| 2.5| 7/2
Financials | 50.0448| 0.5| 20/4
Materials | 47.4832| 1.0| 41/9
Energy | 31.6690| 0.7| 33/6
Consumer Discretionary | 10.8247| 1.1| 7/2
Health Care | 1.6718| 2.0| 4/0
Communication Services | 1.6140| 0.2| 2/3
Utilities | -2.0647| -0.2| 6/8
Industrials | -2.8496| -0.1| 19/9
Real Estate | -3.0286| -0.6| 15/3
Consumer Staples | -11.2335| -1.1| 2/8
Shopify | 59.2600| 3.1| 5.8| 52.6
Canadian Natural | Resources | 17.9500| 2.9| -33.8| -1.6
Celestica | 13.6900| 4.5| -27.6| 198.4
FirstService | -7.1940| -9.7| 247.5| -10.5
TC Energy | -8.5730| -1.6| -3.6| 6.5
Enbridge | -11.4200| -1.1| 105.4| 8.1
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for a second day on Thursday, boosted by elevated commodity prices, even as Desjardins is telling the Bank of Canada (BoC) what it should do to protect Canadian households amid warnings of an equity market correction.
Buoyed by higher gold and oil prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 203.30 points to 30,186.28, adding to the near 100 points gained Wednesday.
Most sectors were higher, led by Info Tech up 2.1%, with Energy up near 2% and Base Metals up near 1.5%.
There were modest losses for Utilities and Industrials.
Of commodities, gold prices were up midafternoon on Thursday.
This follows two days of losses after correcting from the metal’s record high on Monday.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $68.10 to US$4,132.70 per ounce, staying under the Oct. 20 record close of US$4,359.40.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply higher, rising for a third day after the United States and the European Union imposed fresh sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas production in another bid to end its war on Ukraine.
WTI crude oil for December delivery closed up $3.29 to settle at $61.79 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $3.34 to $65.93.
Against the backdrop, Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins published a note entitled ‘Strategic View: Market Volatility & the Canadian Economy’ in which he noted a recent article by former IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath warning that an equity market correction could wipe out US$20 trillion in wealth for American households.
As she notes, Mendes said, that’s equivalent to roughly 70% of U.S. GDP and could reduce economic activity by as much as two full percentage points.
Gopinath based her calculations on a market drawdown of similar magnitude to the dotcom crash of the early 2000s.
Mendes said a correction of that scale would hurt Canadian households too, but the economic fallout might not be as severe.
He noted Desjardins analysis suggests a dotcom-style drawdown in Canada would erase household wealth equivalent to about 45% of GDP, adding the more muted impact stems from two key factors.
“First,” Mendes said, “Canadian portfolios are more skewed toward domestic equities, which have historically been, and still are, less exposed to the tech sector.
Second, households north of the border hold a smaller share of their wealth in publicly listed equities.
While headline data on equity and mutual fund holdings might suggest Americans and Canadians have similar stock exposure, the comparison is misleading.
Canadians tend to access fixed income through mutual funds, whereas Americans more often hold bonds directly.”
This lower exposure to tech and equities means Canadian households have not fully participated in the recent bull market, but it also means they are less vulnerable to a correction, Mendes said, before adding: “That said, Canadian households aren’t necessarily facing any less risk.
Their portfolios are heavily tilted toward an asset class that’s already under pressure.”
Mendes noted falling home prices in many provinces have constrained wealth accumulation in Canada.
Since the first quarter of 2022, Canadian household net worth has risen just 7%, well below the 16% growth American households have enjoyed.
Despite the decline in home prices and gains in equities, real estate still accounts for roughly 40% of household assets in Canada, in contrast to 25% in the United States.
“While the central bank has limited influence over equity markets,” Mendes said, “the Bank of Canada should be paying close attention to the housing market.
Most homeowners still have substantial equity, but that cushion is shrinking each month.
After several years of declines, stabilizing house prices should be a priority for monetary policymakers aiming to restore the economy to full health.”
Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets in a Canadian Rates Strategy note said it expects a follow on cut from the BoC at its October 29 meeting, with dovish BoC inter-meeting communication and middling dataflow supporting the move.
RBC’s view since the September cut was that they did not re-start the easing cycle for one cut, unless the data came significantly stronger before October meeting. “The data has not reached that bar,” RBC said.
But while RBC sees a high chance of a cut, it said the fundamental (“should”) case is not a home run, with core inflation still elevated and a growth-friendly budget expected the week after the meeting.
“The two moves following a pause would be consistent with the with the pattern from the last hiking cycle (a pause followed by two final rate increases),” it added.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in big tech drove stocks higher as trade tensions cooled ahead of a reading on consumer prices, with equity traders shrugging off concerns about any potential impacts of an oil spike on inflation.
Bonds fell.
The S&P 500 approached its all-time highs as the White House said President Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Oct. 30.
Tesla Inc. erased its post- earnings slide to lead gains in mega caps.
Energy shares joined a surge in crude as the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil companies in a bid to end the war in Ukraine.
The equity bounce came amid hopes the world’s two largest economies will de-escalate a trade war.
Meantime, the Trump administration is weighing a quantum-computing boost in an effort to counter China – spurring an industry rally.
While volatility has picked up recently, drawdowns have been largely contained as retail investors see them as opportunities to add risk amid the strength of Corporate America.
“Valuations continue to be the best argument for bears, but the relentless buy-the-dip approach of investors has even the most pessimistic investors questioning their outlook,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Not even a surge in crude oil was able to dissuade Wall Street from the buying impulse.
As money markets brace for a Federal Reserve reduction next week, investors will likely look past any evidence of stubborn inflation in Friday’s consumer price index report.
The S&P 500 closed near 6,740.
The Nasdaq 100 rose almost 1%.
Tesla rallied over 2%.
In late hours, Intel Corp. gave an upbeat revenue forecast.
Ford Motor Co. sees a profit hit of as much as $2 billion from a fire at a key supplier.
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped about 5.5%.
US 10-year yields climbed six basis points to 4%.
Gold halted its slide.
The dollar wavered.
Binance Coin surged after exchange co- founder Changpeng Zhao received a pardon from Trump.
After being delayed by the US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI on Friday.
The data, originally slated for Oct. 15, will give Fed officials a critical piece of information on inflation ahead of their policy meeting the following week.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the core CPI, which excludes food and fuel for a better snapshot of underlying inflation, to have climbed 0.3% for a third straight month as higher import duties continue to gradually filter through to consumers.
The projected monthly gain will keep the annual core CPI at 3.1%.
Although inflation is stuck above the Fed’s goal, officials are expected to announce their second rate cut of the year because of the fragile labor market.
Friday’s CPI is important in the sense that it’s one of the few economic data points that we will see given the government shutdown, according to Emily Bowersock Hill founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners.
“But since the Federal Reserve is likely more focused on the labor market, we don’t expect Friday’s CPI to weigh heavily on next week’s Fed decision,” she said.
“We will likely see two more rate cuts this year, in October and December.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk sees a roughly 65% chance the S&P 500 will advance following the release despite economists expecting an elevated print.
The team including Andrew Tyler laid out scenarios for stocks on CPI day that are “less volatile than usual,” with investors’ expectations that the Fed will ease again likely offsetting any inflation-related angst.
“We agree with the market’s view and think it would take the largest of tail-risks to push the Fed to the sideline,” Tyler wrote in a note to clients.
With forecasts originally anticipating a rise in headline CPI inflation to around 3.5% by year-end, the inflation passthrough has so far been more muted than anticipated, likely due to a combination of margin compression, inventory frontloading, and trade diversion, according to Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“While these factors have helped cushion the initial impact, they are inherently temporary.
As inventories deplete, trade routes narrow, and margins continue to shrink, firms may be forced to pass on higher costs to consumers,” she said. “As such, upside risks remain.
If pricing pressures spill over into services, it could signal a broader and more persistent inflationary trend.”
Her firm’s estimates suggest that tariffs will deliver a one-off, modest inflation shock, keeping core CPI near current levels before easing slightly in late 2026.
However, the risk of a more sustained inflationary episode cannot be ruled out, which may prompt the Fed to adopt a more cautious approach to easing, she noted.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 45% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk- on,” 26% said “risk-off” and 29% “mixed/ negligible.”
This is the first month since July that bets on a positive reaction was favored.
The tally also showed that 61% of investors think core CPI is on a “Fed friendly” glide path. This value has increased from last month.
Prospects for Fed easing, durable earnings growth and AI investment spending support the view that the equity bull market has further room to run, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
While it’s important to have adequate exposure to US stocks, she also believes investors should diversify their portfolios.
“Any setbacks in US-China relations or potential concerns about the durability of the AI-driven rally could trigger bouts of volatility.
Against the current backdrop, we see appealing opportunities in select equity markets in Asia, quality bonds, and gold,” she concluded.
Corporate Highlights:
* Super Micro Computer Inc., which emerged as a favorite stock among artificial intelligence-obsessed investors last year, unexpectedly issued first-quarter guidance on Thursday that fell far short of Wall Street’s expectations.
* Microsoft Corp. is asking its Xbox gaming division to produce profit margins that are well above the industry average, ratcheting up pressure on its video-game makers during a difficult time for the field at large.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. will provide AI software to Lumen Technologies Inc. in a new partnership, part of a push by the telecom company to support more AI services, and a bid by Palantir to reach more customers.
* American Airlines Group Inc. reported a smaller-than-expected loss in the third quarter, and the carrier joined rivals in predicting a strong end to the year as corporate and premium leisure travel remain the industry’s growth drivers.
* Southwest Airlines Co. said the US government shutdown is starting to ripple across domestic flying, threatening the record sales it expects during the crucial holiday period.
* T-Mobile US Inc. gained 1 million new mobile phone subscribers in the third quarter and raised its outlook for the year, buoyed by its recent acquisition of smaller competitor US Cellular.
* Union Pacific Corp.’s quarterly profit slightly outpaced Wall Street estimates, a sign of resilience for rail volume in the face of tariffs and economic volatility.
* Honeywell International Inc. raised its full-year profit outlook and reported third-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations, boosted by the company’s aerospace unit ahead of a planned breakup.
* Moderna Inc. said its vaccine to prevent cytomegalovirus, a common cause of birth defects, failed to meet its goal in a late-stage trial, a setback for the company still struggling to move past the pandemic.
* Molina Healthcare Inc. reported steep quarterly earnings miss and cut its guidance for the third time in recent months, warning profit won’t grow next year as medical costs climb.
* Ventyx Biosciences Inc.’s mid-stage clinical trial results showed significant reductions in cardiovascular risk factors in patients with obesity.
* O’Reilly Automotive Inc.’s executives detailed its exposure to a bankrupt supplier and said inflation is taking a toll on sales to do-it-yourself customers.
* Las Vegas Sands Corp. reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Blackstone Inc. has amassed $508 billion of assets in credit as the private capital giant targets higher-grade debt investing.
* Dow Inc.’s improved volumes in the industrial unit helped reduce its loss from the previous quarter more than analysts expected.
* Tractor Supply Co.’s net sales for the third quarter increased 7.2%, boosted by higher comparable-store sales, new store openings, and the contribution from Allivet, acquired back in December.
* Cargill Inc. is turning to artificial intelligence to ensure it gets more beef from its processing plants as the US cattle herd dwindles to the lowest level in seven decades.
* Rogers Communications Inc. beat analysts’ estimates in the third quarter, lifted by growth in wireless and media after the company completed a major sports deal and as the Toronto Blue Jays baseball team that it owns made a run to the playoffs.
* Nokia Oyj’s adjusted profit in the most recent quarter blew past analyst estimates, driven by demand for artificial intelligence and cloud services.
* Roche Holding AG Chief Executive Officer Thomas Schinecker signaled that a new investigation into drug costs conducted by the Trump administration might pressure countries to review their own drug prices.
* Galderma Group AG lifted its sales and margin guidance, driven by the continued outperformance of its blockbuster eczema cream Nemluvio, particularly in the US — in spite of tariffs.
* Unilever Plc third-quarter sales rose more than expected, driven by strong demand in developed markets, particularly North America, in a boost to the company’s turnaround plan.
* STMicroelectronics NV forecast fourth-quarter revenue that missed analysts’ expectations, signaling that a long-awaited recovery in the chip industry may be faltering.
* Volvo Car AB reported better-than-expected profit in the third quarter, benefiting from its 18 billion-kronor ($1.9 billion) cost-saving program.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4:05 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
* Tesla rose 2.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1615
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3322
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $110,123.39
* Ether rose 1.9% to $3,852.95
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.00%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.42%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.49%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.58%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.4% to $61.64 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,118.33 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
The purpose of your life is not to do as the majority does, but to live according to the inner law which you understand in yourself. Do not act against your conscience or against truth. Live like this, and you will fulfill the task of your life. –Marcus Aurelius, 121 AD- 180 AD.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com