Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday.
October 20, 1973: The Sydney Opera House is officially opened by Queen Elizabeth II. Designed by Danish architect Jørn Utzon, it immediately becomes a global icon of modern architecture.
October 20, 1992: The host Toronto Blue Jays beat the Atlanta Braves 3-2 in the first World Series game played outside the United States.
Christopher Wren architect, b. 1632.
John Dewey, educator, b. 1859.
Mickey Mantle, baseball player, b. 1931.
Snoop Dog, rapper, b. 1972.
| 3,500-year-old Egyptian military fortress with ancient ovens and fossilized dough discovered in Sinai Desert |
A 3,500-year-old Egyptian fortress has been discovered on an ancient military road in the north Sinai Desert. Read More.
| Easter Island statues may have ‘walked’ thanks to ‘pendulum dynamics’ and with as few as 15 people, study finds |
Simple physics may explain how the Easter Island statues could “walk” miles with only a handful of people, but the debate over their transport is far from over. Read More.
| Arctic Ocean methane ‘switch’ that helped drive rapid global warming discovered |
The Arctic Ocean was once an important source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere — and it could become one again, researchers warn. Read More.
| $20 million NASA mission to visit ‘God of Chaos’ asteroid saved from budget cuts in last-minute decision |
NASA’s OSIRIS-APEX mission, which was one of 19 designated to be canceled by the Trump administration, has been saved from the chopping block in a last-minute decision. There will be a significant change to its structure, however. Read More.
Runner wrestles bear: ‘In one bite my arm was done’
What began as a routine run through familiar woods became a desperate sprint for survival. A runner tells CNN what it feels like to survive a bear attack.
Why are you seeing cowboys everywhere?
From billboards to runways, it seems like everyone is grabbing their fringe and boots made for walking. CNN’s Leah Asmelash explains why you may be seeing a “wholehearted embrace of the American West.”
This Bollywood classic still captivates Indian movie-goers 30 years on
Fans of “Diwale Dulhania Le Jayenge” or “DDLJ” still flock to a Mumbai cinema that has shown the film every day for three decades straight.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Bangkok, Thailand
A dragon dance is performed during the nine-day vegetarian festival that coincides with the annual celebration of the nine Chinese emperor gods
Photograph: Peerapon Boonyakiat/Sopa Images/Shutterstock
Debrad’, Slovakia
Stargazers look at the comet C/2025 A6 (Lemmon) as it shines among the stars
Photograph: Robert Nemeti/Anadolu/Getty Images
New Jersey, US
Workers harvest cranberries at Pine Island farm during the annual cranberry harvest, where they wade through flooded bogs to collect the bright red berries
Photograph: Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 20th , 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46706.58 | +515.97 |
| +1.12% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6735.13 | +71.12 |
| +1.07% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22990.54 | +310.57 |
| +1.37% | ||
| TSX | 30416.44 | +307.96 |
| +1.02% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 49185.50 | +1603.35 |
| +3.37% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25858.83 | +611.73 |
| +2.42% | ||
| SENSEX | 84363.37 | +411.18 |
| +0.49% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9403.57 | +49.00 |
| +0.52% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.057 | 3.093 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.560 | 3.592 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
3.9800 | 4.0088 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.5692 | 4.6053 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7125 | 0.7133 |
| US $ |
1.4035 | 1.4019 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6342 | 0.6119 |
| US $ |
1.1644 | 0.8588 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4224.75 | 4261.95 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 57.52 | 57.54 |
Market Commentary:
The best way to put the odds in your favor is to invest long-term. –Dick Davis,1928-2020.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1% at 30,416.44 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.7%.
NGEx Minerals Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 12.7%.
Today, 155 of 213 shares rose, while 57 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 20 times. The next day, it advanced 11 times for an average 0.7% and declined nine times for an average 1.3%
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This month, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Oct. 15, 2025 and 36.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.81t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.34% compared with 11.05% in the previous session and the average of 7.94% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 118.8983| 2.3| 39/11
Financials | 75.5576| 0.8| 18/5
Information Technology | 71.1660| 2.3| 5/4
Industrials | 27.6424| 0.8| 26/3
Energy | 19.1948| 0.4| 28/11
Utilities | 5.2192| 0.5| 11/3
Health Care | 2.2514| 2.7| 4/0
Consumer Discretionary | 2.1799| 0.2| 7/2
Real Estate | 1.6563| 0.3| 13/6
Consumer Staples | -7.2945| -0.7| 3/8
Communication Services | -8.4983| -1.3| 1/4
Shopify | 88.8500| 4.7| -29.7| 51.2
Barrick Mining | 24.2000| 4.3| -19.7| 118.8
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 21.2500| 2.5| -35.9| 122.7
Celestica | -3.9780| -1.3| -21.3| 189.6
Intact Financial | -4.7220| -1.5| 8.1| -2.6
Constellation Software | -14.4900| -2.7| -38.7| -16.5
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange recovered some lost ground on Monday after two losing sessions, buoyed by a record gold price and the prospect of another interest rate cut here in Canada, even as David Rosenberg says “we are in a classic equity bubble” and adds “everybody thinks they are nimble enough to time the peak”.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Commodities Index rose 307.96 points, or 1%, to 30,416.44, after falling by nearly 530 points over last Thursday and Friday.
Monday’s gains still left the index more than 200 points below the record close of 30,637.12, hit last Wednesday.
Among sectors, most were higher, led by Health Care up near 3.2% and Base Metals up near 3%.
The Battery Metals Index was down by more than 6% and Telecom down by near 1%.
Boosting sentiment, The Canadian Press reported executives for Rockpoint Gas Storage (RGSI.TO) have big plans for the company after it made “quite an impression” on the TSX with a “mammoth sized” initial public offering (IPO) this month.
Calgary-based Rockpoint raised $704 million, pricing its offering at $22.00 per share.
It is the second company to debut on the TSX this year after GO Residential Real Estate Investment Trust (GO-U.TO) in July.
“Natural gas storage is playing such an important role,” said Toby McKenna, CEO of Rockpoint told BNN Bloomberg in a Monday interview.
“The way that investors are receiving us has been extraordinary.”
Rockpoint, which is 40% owned by investment giant Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.TO) and is the largest natural-gas storage operator of its kind in North America, closed up $0.11 or 0.4% at $25.50.
Also helping to boost positive market sentiment, RBC said today’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey (BoS) leaves the Bank of Canada “on track” for another rate cut.
Spanning early August to early September, most information in the BoC’s BoS was gathered during a period of “elevated but moderately stabilizing” global trade tensions, RBC noted.
“Overall,” RBC said, “the details aligned with our expectations — economic growth showed signs of stabilizing in Q3 but remained at weak levels that will limit upside inflation risks.
While this week’s Canadian CPI inflation data will be closely watched, available information supports another BoC rate cut next week.”
Elsewhere, TD noted business and consumer optimism improved slightly in Q3, reflecting a modest easing of trade tensions, greater clarity on tariff measures and an improvement in household financial health supported by rising net worth.
However, it also noted, the overall level of sentiment remained subdued for both businesses and consumers.
“Beneath the surface, conditions in the steel and aluminum sectors have worsened, with firms in these industries reporting especially weak outlooks that are leading to significant layoffs.”
TD noted while longer-term consumer inflation expectations rose, they are similar to levels prior to the pandemic, suggesting consumers tend to overestimate longer-term inflation.
“Moreover,” TD added, “given that the survey was conducted before the federal government announced plans to remove counter-tariffs, we think inflation expectations may ease next quarter.
The reports of weaker pricing power among firms are encouraging from inflation perspective, even if they point to narrower profit margins for businesses.”
It is against all of this backdrop that Rosenberg, a veteran market watcher, published a note entitled ‘Not So Tiny Bubbles’ in which he says, “it is very clear to us that we are in a classic equity bubble”.
But, Rosenberg adds, “these episodes typically go further than you think, but never correct by going sideways”.
And, Rosenberg notes, “typical of human nature, when greed becomes the primal emotion (clearly the case today), everybody thinks they are nimble enough to time the peak”.
Bottom line for Rosenberg, “A bubble is defined by a market that loses touch with underlying fundamentals and where all the multiples (price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, price-to-book, the CAPE, the Buffett Model) trade north of 2 standard deviations.
Not that the earnings fundamentals are not good, but that the price action is double the underlying earnings streams.
Whatever it is we end up seeing coming out of the AI boom in terms of the future impact on productivity, the economy, and earnings, the reality (after you do the math in backing out the message from Mr. Market) is that the expectation embedded in today’s valuations entails that average annual earnings growth will explode to a +15% rate from now to 2030.
That is not impossible but still represents a 1-in-10 event.
The last time we saw this phenomenon was back in the late 1990s tech boom — the Internet, as we all know, was a game-changer from a personal and commercial standpoint but remember what happened to super-inflated expectations from 2000 to 2003 as they reverted to the mean after hitting an extreme.”
Of commodities, gold prices traded at a fresh record high on Monday, rebounding from Friday’s fall on expectations traders are not yet ready to turn bearish on the metal.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $164.30 to US$4,377.40 per ounce, topping Thursday’s record close of US$4,304.60.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil price closed with a small loss, dropping for the fourth time in five days to the lowest in more than five months as supply rises above demand, pushing up global inventories.
WTI crude oil closed down $0.02 to settle at $57.52 per barrel, the lowest since May 7, while December Brent crude was last seen down $0.32 to $61.00.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher amid solid signals from Corporate America and hopes that tensions between the world’s two largest economies are cooling.
Bond yields edged lower.
With the earnings season well underway, about 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting results so far have beaten profit estimates.
That’s helped fuel a rebound in equities, with the benchmark notching its best two-day gain since June.
Sentiment was also buoyed by expectations the trade war will de- escalate as the US and China return to the negotiating table.
President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to follow through on a tariff hike on Chinese goods “if there isn’t a deal” by Nov. 1, but stressed plans to meet President Xi Jinping next week.
Earlier this month, markets were roiled as Trump raised the prospect of a sky-high tariff rate, citing China’s “hostile” export controls.
“We are seeing the typical seasonal volatility in October, but the recent swings have been relatively shallow by historical standards, as the buy-the-dip mentality appears to be in play,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
While Friday’s inflation data may take on greater importance due to the government shutdown-driven data drought, Gardner still sees a Federal Reserve rate cut in October.
He also noted that a key test will be big tech earnings, with investors looking for clarity on how spending on artificial intelligence is leading to profitability.
“Thank God for earnings season,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“The analysts have been deprived of data for weeks now.
When there isn’t a lot of data to latch onto, you get more panic around headlines.
A steady stream of fundamental signals is underrated for market stability.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.1%.
Apple Inc. hit its first record of 2025 as Loop Capital upgraded the stock to buy, the latest firm to cite positive iPhone demand trends.
A gauge of tech mega caps climbed 1.6%.
The Russell 2000 index of small firms added 1.9%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis points to 3.98%.
Gold jumped.
Soybean futures rallied, with growers holding out hope that Trump will make a deal with China to restart stalled American exports.
Even with bouts of volatility, the underlying backdrop remains healthy for equities, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
He continues to see any period of weakness get aggressively bought, and while institutional investors have grown cautious, retail investors are still leaning in.
“That tells me the market is setting up for a breakout move, and from my perspective, it’s much easier to see it moving higher rather than lower as we head toward year-end and into the beginning of 2026,” he said.
While trade tensions continue to drive investor emotion and volatility, drawdowns are short lived, as retail investors see them as opportunities to add risk, Hackett noted.
This is despite a collapse in investor sentiment per recent gauges.
Deutsche Bank AG strategists noted that overall equity positioning tumbled last week and sentiment fell to net bearish.
Meantime, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said there needs to be follow through on a US-China deal and stability in earnings revisions to clear the risk of a further correction in stocks.
“The combination of a better growth and earnings outlook, supportive policy, and investors eagerly buying dips justifies a more positive medium-term outlook,” said Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Among notable companies reporting this week is Tesla Inc., which is set to kick off the mega cap earnings season.
China’s tightening grip on rare earths exports will likely be discussed at Intel Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc.’s calls.
As earnings roll in, results are looking promising, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management’s John Stoltzfus.
The fact that big US companies are beating expectations and guidance despite ongoing risks suggests there is “enough resilience to provide stocks with a ticket to ride,” he said.
Activity momentum improved during the quarter and positive surprises are likely this earnings season, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
“Momentum remains positive and has now become earnings- driven, which should propel the market into year-end, outside of any Black Swan events,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
Despite the strong kickoff to the third quarter earnings season with a high bar for expectations, recent equity market volatility suggests investors remain sensitive to policy and headline surprises along with potential earnings disappointments, said Doug Beath at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “We believe surprises and resulting pullbacks will likely happen, but that investors should look beyond headline distractions to focus on the positive trends already in place,” he said.
“The theme of third-quarter earnings season is likely to be ongoing earnings resilience,” said Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.
“The S&P 500 is on pace for high single digit earnings growth on a year-over-year basis.”
They also noted that it appears that small caps are finally having their moment in the spotlight.
After a challenging couple years for their bottom lines, earnings growth for the Russell 2000 is expected to increase over 35% in the third quarter.
“This trend could persist into year-end, as small caps should be beneficiaries of recently passed fiscal stimulus and the Fed’s easing cycle,” the Glenmede strategists said.
After years of lagging behind the giants — and roughly realizing the multiple suggested by rate and macro trends — the Russell 2000 now has to prove it can grow into its valuation, according to Michael Casper and Nathaniel Welnhofer at Bloomberg Intelligence. And third-quarter earnings could be decisive.
“The bar is higher than last quarter, but smaller companies are expected to close the gap with large caps by mid-2026 — a story that must remain intact if the gauge is to keep outperforming,” they said.
The climb in equities since the April selloff has rewarded investors willing to look past waves of macro and tariff uncertainty, noted Jeff Shen and Philip Hodges at BlackRock Systematic.
“The economy has proven resilient enough to support hopes for a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario: soft enough for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, yet firm enough to avoid recession,” they noted.
While policy easing and the AI revolution have pushed markets to fresh highs recently, the headline rally masks a more nuanced story under the surface, they said.
Since the April 8 lows, the S&P 500 has seen a maximum drawdown of about 5%, yet the average stock in the index has fallen as much as 15%.
“That’s a reflection of the churn playing out in markets, underscoring the importance of a dynamic approach to active management,” they concluded.
After being delayed by the US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September consumer price index on Friday.
The data, originally slated for Oct. 15, will give Federal Reserve officials a critical piece of information on inflation ahead of their policy meeting the following week.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the core CPI, which excludes food and fuel for a better snapshot of underlying inflation, to have climbed 0.3% for a third straight month as higher import duties continue to gradually filter through to consumers.
The projected monthly gain will keep the annual core CPI at 3.1%.
“September core CPI likely moderated slightly due to cooling services prices offsetting additional tariff passthrough into goods prices.
Energy prices likely boosted headline CPI,” said Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
Munoz continues to expect the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at next week’s decision as growing labor market risks necessitate additional policy recalibration.
While traders will get a look at the delayed CPI data at the end of this week, their immediate focus will be on earnings, especially after news about bank loan losses contributed to volatility in the financial sector last week, according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“Choppy trade has been the order of the day lately, but earnings beats from this week’s high-profile names and a reduction in US-China tensions could help the market find its footing,” he said.
Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon Web Services, the world’s largest cloud provider, said issues continued to plague its operations after a widespread outage degraded services for a range of customers including government agencies, AI companies and financial platforms.
* Apple Inc.’s latest generation of iPhones is off to a faster start than usual, with its most basic model surging in popularity.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google plans to let Pixel smartphone enthusiasts test out the company’s next handset ahead of its public introduction.
* AppLovin Corp. sank after the New York Post reported that state regulators have reached out to multiple short sellers in a possible preliminary probe on the mobile advertising company.
* Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. jumped after the US steelmaker posted stronger-than-expected earnings, disclosed a pact with another metal producer and said it’s evaluating whether rare earth minerals can be extracted from its mines.
* Kenvue Inc. urged US regulators to deny a request warning against Tylenol’s use during pregnancy, laying out the most detailed defense of its biggest product after Trump administration officials tied its use to autism.
* Replimune Group Inc. surged after US regulators accepted its resubmitted application for a skin cancer treatment, an encouraging sign for biotech investors who’ve been spooked by recent drug denials.
* CleanSpark Inc. climbed after the Bitcoin miner announced that it was expanding into date-center infrastructure and the hiring of Jeffrey Thomas from Saudi Arabian AI firm Humain.
* HoldCo Asset Management LP has built up a sizable stake in regional lender First Interstate BancSystem Inc. and told management to swear off acquisitions and buy back even more shares than the lender’s already planning, or the activist investor will push for a sale.
* BNP Paribas SA plummeted after a court ruling linked it to human rights abuses in Sudan, triggering speculation the firm will ultimately have to pay billions of dollars to settle related cases.
* Kering SA agreed to sell its beauty division to L’Oreal SA in a €4 billion ($4.7 billion) deal, with new Chief Executive Officer Luca de Meo changing course in a bid to turn around the French luxury giant’s fortunes.
* Worldpay’s $24.3 billion deal with Global Payments Inc. to create a payment processing behemoth avoided a deeper investigation as the UK watchdog found the deal will not weaken competition in the UK.
* Shares of submarine-builder TKMS surged in their Frankfurt trading debut on Monday after the marine defense company was spun off from Thyssenkrupp AG, with investors’ eagerness to buy into Europe’s defense stock rally giving an early boost to the new stock.
* Stellantis NV reaffirmed its commitment to its Italian manufacturing operations, making a pledge to hire 400 additional workers to bolster production at its Mirafiori plant in Turin.
* Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd.’s profit jumped in the third quarter, as the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries defended its lead in China and pushed further into overseas markets.
* EQT AB has been holding talks with potential acquisition targets including Coller Capital as the private equity firm seeks to expand its secondaries business, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* Holcim Ltd. is set to acquire walling-systems firm Xella from private equity firm Lone Star Funds in a €1.85 billion ($2.2 billion) deal, extending the Swiss company’s bid to diversify beyond its core cement business.
* Oura Health Oy, the Finnish smart ring maker, is the latest wearable company seeking to move into blood pressure monitoring.
How should regulators react to the blurring line between investing and gambling? Let us know in the latest Markets Pulse survey.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The real test for earnings will lie with AI heavyweights to deliver on lofty expectations.
Nonetheless, the strong start points to the potential for another steady quarter for the S&P 500, suggesting that fundamentals remain broadly supportive of current valuations.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1641
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3406
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 150.69 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $110,744.19
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,977.88
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.98%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.50%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.46%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $57.48 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 3% to $4,377.50 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
We are all ready to be savage in some cause. The difference between a good man and a bad one is the choice of the cause. –William James, 1842-1910.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com