Dear Friends,
Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for the J.P. Morgan / Robin Hood Investors Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
On Oct. 16, 1690: English demand the surrender of Quebec, and French Governor Louis de Buade de Frontenac replies, “I have no reply to make to your general other than from the mouths of my cannon and muskets”
On Oct. 16, 1916: Margaret Sanger opens the first birth control clinic in the US at 46 Amboy St, Brooklyn
On Oct. 16, 1964: China detonated its first atomic bomb. Go to article
**It’s Boss’s Day (U.S.) — a day for employees to show appreciation to their bosses, Read more.
| James Webb telescope finds something ‘very exciting’ shooting out of first black hole ever imaged |
Using the James Webb Space Telescope’s infrared camera, scientists have captured the gigantic jet blasting out of M87* in a new light.
| Skeleton-filled well in Croatia likely holds remains of Roman soldiers, study finds |
Archaeologists have discovered a mass grave of Roman soldiers hidden inside an ancient well in Croatia.
| Methane leaks multiplying beneath Antarctic ocean spark fears of climate doom loop |
Researchers have discovered dozens of new methane seeps littering the ocean floor in the Ross Sea coastal region of Antarctica, raising concerns of an unknown positive climate feedback loop that could accelerate global warming.
Chicago’s ‘rat hole’ was not created by a rat, researchers say
Researchers believe they have debunked the origin of Chicago’s “rat hole,” one of the Windy City’s weirdest local landmarks.
World Food Day —International day to promote awareness of food security and hunger issues. 🥔🍔🥗🥘
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
London, UK
A pedestrian passes the colourful autumn display of Virginia creeper that covers the wall of the Admiralty Citadel, a former second world war fortress in Horse Guards Parade
Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Shutterstock
New Delhi, India
A peacock watches on as Tom Vaillant of France hits a shot during the DP World Tour Championship golf tournament
Photograph: Manish Swarup/AP
The isle of Palms, US
A group of fishermen silhouetted by the sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean gather to try their luck on Front Beach fishing pier in South Carolina
Photograph: Richard Ellis/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 16th , 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
45952.24 | -301.07 |
| -0.65% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6629.07 | -41.99 |
| -0.63% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22562.54 | -107.54 |
| -0.47% | ||
| TSX | 30458.80 | -178.32 |
| -0.58% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 48277.74 | +605.07 |
| +1.27% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25888.51 | -22.09 |
| -0.09% | ||
| SENSEX | 83467.66 | +862.23 |
| +1.04% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9436.09 | +11.34 |
| +0.12% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.077 | 3.123 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.583 | 3.615 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
3.9745 | 4.0282 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.5844 | 4.6254 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7117 | 0.7122 |
| US $ |
1.4050 | 1.4040 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6431 | 0.6086 |
| US $ |
1.1693 | 0.8552 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4204.60 | 4204.60 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 57.46 | 58.27 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1878, Thomas Alva Edison, backed by J.P. Morgan, established the Edison Electric Light Co. to commercialize his month-old incandescent light.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 30,458.80 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 135 of 214 shares fell, while 77 rose.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.8%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 13.2%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Oct. 15, 2025 and 37% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.9t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.35% compared with 10.13% in the previous session and the average of 7.41% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | -166.1364| -1.7| 4/20
Energy | -77.0125| -1.7| 1/37
Industrials | -45.3825| -1.3| 6/23
Real Estate | -3.4965| -0.7| 4/15
Health Care | -1.0873| -1.3| 1/3
Information Technology| -0.1801| 0.0| 4/4
Utilities | 1.8577| 0.2| 9/5
Consumer Discretionary| 3.0300| 0.3| 4/5
Communication Services| 3.3826| 0.5| 5/0
Consumer Staples | 4.6145| 0.5| 7/4
Materials | 102.0695| 1.9| 32/19
Brookfield Corp | -27.2600| -2.8| -3.8| 12.3
TD Bank | -26.7000| -2.0| -10.3| 44.7
Bank of Montreal | -23.9100| -2.7| 8.5| 25.7
Wheaton Precious |Metals | 14.3600| 2.9| -37.6| 97.0
Barrick Mining | 16.4400| 2.8| -26.6| 124.7
Agnico Eagle Mines |Ltd | 33.6300| 3.8| 10.4| 131.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday fell off from a day-prior record close amid some profit taking and as Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, flagged “soft” economic growth over the second half of the year.
With commodity prices mixed, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the session down 178.32 points, or 0.6%, to 30,458.80.
Among sectors, Base Metals and Energy were the biggest decliners, both down near 2%.
The Battery Metals Index was up 1.9% and Telecom up near 1%.
With Canada’s economy already having shrunk 1.6% annualized in the second quarter, Macklem, during an event in Washington, DC, said: “We do expect growth in the second half of the year, but with weakness in business investment and exports and uncertainty about jobs, growth will likely be soft.”
Macklem later indicated in the webcast event that growth would come in at a modest near 1%.
Of commodities, gold continued to push to fresh record highs Thursday, rising for a fifth session on hopes for falling interest rates amid a slowing global economy, and momentum buying.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $131.10 to US$4,332.70 per ounce, rising off Wednesday’s record.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at the lowest in more than five-months, falling for a third day despite reports Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised U.S. President Donald Trump his nation will stop importing Russian oil.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.81 per barrel to settle at $57.46 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, while December Brent crude was last seen down $0.73 to $61.18.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks slid, extending a weeklong stretch of volatility on Wall Street, as bad loans at two regional banks stirred concern about credit quality in the economy and further underscored the fragility of the $28 trillion bull market.
Bitcoin tumbled, while bonds and gold rose.
Following an earlier advance driven by another solid outlook for artificial-intelligence demand, the S&P 500 turned lower as a pair of regional lenders disclosed problems with loans involving allegations of fraud, adding to concern that more cracks are emerging in borrowers’ creditworthiness.
Zions Bancorp sank 13% after it disclosed a $50 million charge-off for a loan underwritten by its wholly-owned subsidiary, California Bank & Trust, in San Diego.
And Western Alliance Bancorp plunged 11% as it said it made loans to the same borrowers.
“As of now, those seem isolated to those two relatively sizeable regional banks,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“Although they are similar in size and scope to Silicon Valley Bank, which caused a bit of a crisis about two-and-a-half years ago when it failed, there is nothing (at least so far) to indicate that these are anything systemic.”
The renewed bank volatility came at a time when the dramatic collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings hit a giant like JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the third quarter, contributing a $170 million charge-off that led to the bank’s elevated credit-cost figure and sparking a warning from Jamie Dimon.
Those bank jitters roiled markets less than a week after the re-flaring of the trade war and amid all the uneasiness caused by the the dearth of economic data during the US government shutdown.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
A closely watched regional bank ETF sank over 6%.
Oracle Corp. spiked after sharing its margin expectations for AI infrastructure projects.
Over $3.4 trillion worth of options will expire Friday, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Benchmark 10-year yields dropped below 4% while those on two-year notes hit the lowest since 2022.
Gold hit a fresh record.
Speaking of Zions, Truist analyst David Smith wrote: “Is it a good thing or a bad thing in credit terms if these loans went bad due to fraud as opposed to the normal course of business?
Either way, there have been enough ‘one-offs’ in commercial credits for banks of late that investors are selling first and asking questions later.”
And KBW’s Christopher McGratty said that even as Western Alliance was trimming losses, “the emergence of more ‘one-off’ credits for the industry is impacting investor sentiment, particularly for stocks deemed more credit sensitive.”
Traders also kept a close eye on geopolitics.
President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Budapest during a two-hour phone call.
The conversation took place a day before Trump’s White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
A slew of Federal Reserve speakers also drew investor attention.
Governor Christopher Waller said officials can keep lowering rates in quarter-percentage-point increments to support a faltering labor market, while Stephen Miran continued to advocate a larger reduction.
September inflation data that was slated to have been released this week was postponed because of the US government shutdown.
That has complicated assessing the urgency of additional rate cuts, however Fed officials broadly have continued to back their September assessment that two more quarter-point cuts were likely this year.
“With the government shutdown limiting the amount of economic data available to investors, they’ll have to rely on earnings to drive the near-term narrative,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“At this point, earnings have the potential to steady the ship or rock the boat when it comes to recent volatility — and bulls are hoping for the former rather than the latter.”
The equity bull market could be headed for a choppier phase, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Beata Manthey said.
With the US-China trade tensions back in focus, the stakes are high and the path to resolution is complex, they added.
China’s decision to unveil unprecedented export controls on the rare-earth supply chain dominated meetings at an annual huddle of global economic chiefs in Washington this week.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at an emerging coalition, saying US officials were “speaking with our European allies, with Australia, with Canada, with India and the Asian democracies,” to form a fulsome response.
“While the latest US-China trade flareup has dominated recent market headlines, the story remains the same for stock investors—the importance of focusing on large-cap, quality companies,” said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
While there’s no recession on the horizon, Skelly noted, a cooling labor market and slowing economic growth could pose a challenge for many of the lower-quality, unprofitable companies that hitched a ride on the rally off the April lows.
In another sign of the recent stock-market caution, the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey showed that bullish sentiment dropped to 33.7% in the week ending Oct. 15 from 45.9% in the prior period.
“It’s been a somewhat rocky week for US equities, although by the standards of October, it’s hard to get too worked up,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
While bullish sentiment was routinely near 50% throughout 2024 as the market rallied, in the bounce off the April lows, investors have been much less willing to hop on the bandwagon, they noted.
“Some of the reticence on the part of investors has been chalked up to the upcoming earnings season and fears that expectations may have gotten too optimistic,” Bespoke said.
“That hasn’t necessarily shown up in the results, though.”
At Strategas, Ryan Grabinski says one trend that remains clear is AI-related spending is not slowing down in dollar terms, at least not yet.
The solid results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. underscore how the company remains one of the bigger beneficiaries of a spending spree on AI infrastructure.
From OpenAI to Oracle Corp., industry leaders are racing to build the data centers that underpin the technology in the post-ChatGPT era.
TSMC’s bullish forecast came a day after ASML Holding NV’s outlook pointed to solid AI demand.
“Early indicators suggest the AI narrative remains strong for now, and I suspect US companies will echo a similar story,” said Grabinski.
Meantime, UBS’s Chief Investment Office upgraded US equities to “attractive” from from “neutral.”
The firm also increased its year-end S&P 500 price target to 6,900 and the June 2026 estimate to 7,300.
The gauge closed at 6,629.07 on Thursday.
“We believe the backdrop for US stocks remains favorable, driven by resilient economic growth, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a boom in AI investment spending,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Should a larger decline present itself this month, retail investors may view this as an opportunity provided that the technical and fundamental drivers — like key support levels, solid earnings growth, and lower interest rates — remain intact, said Kenwell at eToro.
“But if you are going against the prevailing bullish trend, it’s always essential to take quick profits and move on to the next opportunity because as evidenced by this week’s price action, the index has nearly bounced all the way back due to the trend being so strong,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and orex.com.
Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. gave its expectations for gross margins for large AI infrastructure projects, easing some of Wall Street’s concerns about the profitability of a crucial new business unit.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. hiked its projection for 2025 revenue growth for the second time this year, reinforcing hopes in the longevity of a global boom in AI spending.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. gave an outlook for profit and cash flow for its upcoming fiscal year that missed analysts’ estimates, reflecting a margin crunch in the AI era.
* Salesforce Inc. projected double-digit revenue growth in the coming years, easing investor concerns about a slowdown.
* Tesla Inc.’s safety regulators in Europe are joining an expanding global effort to more closely scrutinize the door handle design popularized by the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc.’s bullish outlook failed to assuage investors’ concerns that premium demand has peaked, sending the stock down.
* JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. reported a quarterly profit that topped expectations.
* Charles Schwab Corp. reported third-quarter earnings that beat estimates as the firm benefited from a surge in retail investing activity.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s third-quarter profit trounced analyst predictions as the bank’s fee revenue benefited from a surge in client activity.
* U.S. Bancorp’s third-quarter revenue topped analysts’ estimates, a positive sign for a company whose shares have been underperforming their main rivals for years.
* General Motors Co. and a partner have paused the second phase of a cathode factory in Quebec, resulting in the cancellation of a nickel sulfate project by Vale SA.
* Travelers Cos. reported net premiums written that came in below the average analyst estimates.
* BBVA SA’s $19 billion offer for Banco Sabadell SA was rejected by nearly three quarters of shareholders, ending a takeover saga that has been going on for 17 months in a major setback to the pursuer.
* Uber Technologies Inc. is giving some drivers in the US the option to earn money by completing tasks related to the company’s nascent data labelling business, an area where the rideshare giant sees an opportunity to shine in the artificial intelligence boom.
* DoorDash Inc. customers in the Phoenix area may have their orders delivered by a Waymo autonomous vehicle as part of a new partnership that will help keep the robotaxis busy when there’s a lull in demand from passengers.
* HSBC Holdings Plc is not exposed to the collapse of scandal- hit auto-parts supplier First Brands Group, whose bankruptcy has left some of the biggest players on Wall Street facing hundreds of millions of dollars in potential losses.
* Nestlé SA’s new chief executive officer, Philipp Navratil, may be following a strategy set in place by his ousted predecessor, but he’s quickly putting his own hard-driving spin on it.
* Merck KGaA disappointed investors as it outlined new mid-term targets that bank on its life science division driving further growth.
* Pernod Ricard SA’s sales fell more than expected on a sharp slump in demand in China and the clearing out of excess stock in the US.
* EssilorLuxottica SA posted revenue that beat analysts’ estimates in the third quarter, lifted by a new batch of AI glasses with partner Meta Platforms Inc.
* Infosys Ltd. raised the lower end its forecast for yearly revenue, banking on a revival in spending on technologies such as artificial intelligence.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Stars are aligning for bonds as a risk-off tone in Thursday’s session pushed the 10-year yield down and sustainably through 4%.
Yet more notable than the decline in the long-end of the Treasury curve is the pullback in two-year yields.
A deeper slide in that sector coincides with additional bets for the Federal Reserve to deliver at least two more reductions by year- end — a dynamic that will draw a line under stocks, even if they are retreating in the short term.”
—Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.4%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.1%
* SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF fell 6.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1688
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3433
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 150.41 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $108,297.97
* Ether fell 2.2% to $3,874.33
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.97%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.50%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 3.42%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $57.55 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.4% to $4,310.03 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shab
” It’s difficult for mankind to foresee the impact of exponentiality because it often yields something seemingly impossible.” — Peter T F M Wennink
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828