Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Hump Day!
Carolann is away from the office attending the J.P. Morgan / Robin Hood Investors Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
On Oct. 15, 1581 The first ballet “Ballet Comique de la Reine,” commissioned by Catherine de Medici, is staged in Paris
On Oct. 15, 1860 Eleven-year-old Grace Bedell of Westfield, N.Y., wrote a letter to presidential candidate Abraham Lincoln, suggesting he could improve his appearance by growing a beard. Go to article
On Oct. 15, 1924 US President Calvin Coolidge declares the Statue of Liberty a national monument
A massive weak spot in Earth’s magnetic field is growing, scientists discover
The South Atlantic Anomaly, a huge weak spot in the geomagnetic field off South America, has expanded and sprouted a lobe in the direction of Africa over the past decade.
We were wrong about how the moon’s largest and oldest crater formed — and that’s great news for NASA’s next lunar landing
A new study has revealed that our understanding of the South Pole-Aitken basin was quite literally back-to-front, meaning astronauts on NASA’s future Artemis III mission may be able to collect valuable samples of ancient radioactive material, known as KREEP.
Astronomers spot the most powerful and distant ‘odd radio circle’ ever seen
With help from citizen scientists, astronomers have found a unique example of a gigantic, faint ring of plasma that appears to surround a galaxy and emits radio waves.
New hydrogen battery can operate four times colder than before — meaning denser and longer-lasting EV batteries
Being able to store hydrogen at 194 degrees Fahrenheit could dramatically change its use as an energy source.
The world’s longest name
This man can tell you his full name, but it’ll take him about 20 minutes to say all 2,253 words.
Wildlife Photographer of the Year 2025
A ghostly shot of a hyena in Namibia won the Wildlife Photographer of the Year award. See the striking image here.
The power of brain games
Playing certain brain-training games may improve focus and attention, according to a small clinical trial.
International Day of Rural Women (UN) — recognizes the contributions and rights of women in rural areas. Read more.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Yerevan, Armenia
Hot-air balloons fly over the country’s capital city, with Mount Ararat seen in distance
Photograph: Karen Minasyan/AFP/Getty Images
The winner of the Oceans: The Bigger Picture category
An Atlantic fishing vessel during a polar night in northern Norway. Through his work, Audun aims to draw attention to the ongoing conflict between seabirds and the fishing industry. Many birds drown in or around these purse seine nets each year. Various fisheries and researchers are trialling solutions, including sinking the nets more quickly to make them less accessible to the birds
Photograph: Audun Rikardsen/Wildlife Photographer of the Year/PA
The winner of the Natural Artistry category
An orb weaver spider on its web on a pedestrian bridge, silhouetted by lights from the cars below, taken in Ibbenburen, Germany. In urban environments, orb weaver spiders often spin webs near artificial lights that attract insects at night
Photograph: Simone Baumeister/Wildlife Photographer of the Year/PA
Market Closes for October 15th , 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46253.31 | -17.15 |
| -0.04% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6671.06 | +26.75 |
| +0.40% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22670.08 | +148.38 |
| +0.66% | ||
| TSX | 30637.12 | +283.51 |
| +0.93% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 47672.67 | +825.35 |
| +1.76% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25910.60 | +469.25 |
| +1.84% | ||
| SENSEX | 82605.43 | +575.45 |
| +0.70% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9424.75 | -28.02 |
| -0.30% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.123 | 3.151 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.615 | 3.642 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0282 | 4.0321 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.6254 | 4.6321 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7122 | 0.7121 |
| US $ |
1.4040 | 1.4042 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6360 | 0.6112 |
| US $ |
1.1650 | 0.8583 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4204.60 | 4095.95 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 58.27 | 59.49 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1929, with stocks down sharply from their September peak, the head of one of the nation’s largest brokers reassured anxious investors. “The markets generally are now in a healthy condition,” said Charles E. Mitchell of National City Bank. The Crash of 1929 was 12 days away.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.9%, or 283.51 to 30,637.12 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 145 of 214 shares rose, while 68 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.9%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 24%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 4.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.85t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.13% compared with 9.92% in the previous session and the average of 7.35% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 167.7863| 3.2| 49/2
Information Technology | 58.9662| 1.9| 5/4
Financials | 38.2265| 0.4| 14/10
Industrials | 9.8088| 0.3| 16/13
Utilities | 9.4184| 0.9| 11/2
Consumer Discretionary | 3.7588| 0.4| 5/4
Consumer Staples | 3.6200| 0.4| 6/5
Real Estate | 2.0121| 0.4| 13/6
Communication Services | 0.3358| 0.1| 3/2
Health Care | 0.2730| 0.3| 2/2
Energy | -10.6967| -0.2| 21/18
Shopify | 39.0300| 2.1| -34.1| 43.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 37.3200| 4.4| -14.7| 123.3
Celestica | 25.2300| 9.0| 27.7| 186.2
Waste Connections | -6.9450| -1.6| 31.8| -3.3
CGI Inc. | -6.9950| -4.0| 59.8| -22.7
Fairfax Financial | -10.6700| -2.9| -10.9| 21.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday recorded its first record close since October 6 as gold continues to glitter, but Rosenberg Research warned a growing number of divergences indicate an equity market rally that “may be getting long in the tooth”.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 283.51 points, or 0.9%, to 30,637.12, more than 100 points above a closing level on Oct.6, of 30,531.88, what was then a sixth record finish in a row.
Most sectors were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index up 3.65% and Info Tech up 2%.
Telecoms had the biggest losses, down a modest 0.6%.
Rosenberg Research Market Strategist Marius Jongstra published a note entitled ‘Divergences Build, Time to Pay Attention?’ saying a growing number of divergences indicate an equity market rally that “may be getting long in the tooth”.
Among key takeaways, Jongstra cited an increasing list of non-confirmations and anomalies puts the current leg of the S&P 500 on “unstable ground”.
He said an in-house screen of divergences has been triggered four times in the past month and eight times since July and noted this has only happened in less than 2% of all trading days back to 1996.
“Now, to be very clear,”, Jongstra said, “divergences on their own are not powerful enough to cause a correction or a market selloff.
They are simply a reason to pay attention, not a tool for timing the market.
Moreover, divergences can last for as little or as long as they want before they matter — or they may not matter at all if the underlying price action corrects itself.
“That said, a move to all-time highs without underlying support may have its durability called into question (those following Dow Theory know this).
Any negative surprise — such as renewed tariff threats, an escalating trade war, or a prolonged government shutdown weighing on the economy, for example – may then be the catalyst needed for these divergences to be resolved.”
Jongstra added: “It is not abnormal to see one or two non-confirmations appear at any given time.
What is abnormal is when a number of divergences appear at once.
This is when we become interested — as is the case today.”
For his part, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted growth in Canada is “clearly still struggling”.
Kavcic noted manufacturing and wholesale volumes both fell in Canada in August, down 1.5% and 1.3%,
respectively. While wholesale is still up a “sturdy” 2.9% from a year ago, manufacturing volumes are now down 4.3% with declines across nondurables and autos.
Kavcic said: “With hours worked little changed, home sales modestly positive and retail sales volumes still pending, August GDP is tracking roughly flat.
But, given an expected rebound in net exports after a nasty Q2, the economy is still on pace to claw out modest growth for all of Q3.”
Of commodities today, gold continued to push to fresh records Wednesday amid predictions the metal can continue to rise amid an uncertain global economy and lower interest rates.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$65.70 to $4,229.10 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower again, falling to a five-month low on fresh warnings of an over-supplied market.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.42 to settle at US$58.27 per barrel, the lowest since May 7, while December Brent crude was down US$0.38 to US$62.01.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street was lashed with volatility as investors struggled to gauge the scope of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Stocks rallied, plunged, then rose anew amid optimism over earnings.
Following one of the best six-month stretches for equities since the 1950s, the market has seen brief bouts of profit- taking in a move dubbed a “healthy reset” after a torrid surge.
Those downward shifts haven’t lasted long on speculation that Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will keep the positive momentum going for Corporate America.
After a rally that drove the S&P 500 up as much as 1.2%, the gauge turned lower around 1 p.m. New York time.
Nearly 30 minutes later, the US equity benchmark was back in the green.
Investors keeping a close eye on any headline around the tariff spat between the US and China quickly refocused on the fundamental factors that have powered an over $15 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from April’s meltdown.
As the earnings season got under way, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. jumped on solid results.
Meantime, positive comments on artificial intelligence from ASML Holding NV boosted chipmakers.
In late hours, United Airlines Holdings Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings.
“Investors who are buying the dip are still driving the action, keeping sentiment firm even as technical indicators show signs of strain,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Treasuries stalled after a rally that drove two-year yields to their lowest since 2022.
Gold topped $4,200.
Despite the market resilience, an escalating tit-for-tat between Washington and Beijing has renewed investors’ fears that the two economic giants could soon be locked in a full-blown trade war.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high US tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijing putting off its recently announced plan to tighten limits on critical rare earths.
Speaking in a CNBC event, Bessent said that as far as he’s aware, President Donald Trump “is a go” on meeting President Xi Jinping later this month.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted that trade tensions have increased uncertainty in the outlook for growth, making it more important for officials to lower rates quickly.
“There’s now more downside risks than there was a week ago, and I think it’s incumbent upon us as policymakers to recognize that should get reflected in policy,” Miran said Wednesday during an event organized by CNBC.
Higher uncertainty around trade policies between China and the US have introduced a “new tail risk,” he said.
Despite the recent tariff noise, fundamentals remain strong, according to Max Kettner at HSBC.
Kettner also noted he’s heading into 2026 with a continued “risk-on stance” as short-term US growth expectations look easy to beat.
“Q3 earnings results are important, but they are backward- looking.
What I’ll be watching closely is forward guidance, particularly any signs of optimism,” said Stephen Kates at Bankrate.
“Positive guidance can be self-reinforcing for Wall St. and Main St. Rising stock prices boost business and consumer confidence, which in turn, encourages more real-economy spending.”
To Sam Stovall at CFRA, the market might not be finished digesting recent gains.
“More consolidation may be on the horizon, as breadth has narrowed, but not enough to signal an oversold condition,” he said.
However, should an additional decline materialize, he recommends taking advantage of the price weakness, as no post- World War II deep correction that occurred early in the year was followed in the same year by another selloff in excess of 10%.
The average decline was 8.5%.
“The third-quarter earnings season should be supportive of our view that the bull market remains intact driven by the combination of durable earnings growth and Fed rate cuts,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Retail traders’ demand for call options has outpaced puts for 24 consecutive weeks, which ties with November 2023 for the longest streak ever, said Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner, citing data going back to 2020.
Their conviction in the stock market “remains extraordinary,” Rubner wrote.
“Although we believe a consolidation phase is probable as investors focus on Q3 earnings, they should continue to seek opportunities to ‘buy the dip’ as we enter the fourth year of this bull market,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
Corporate Highlights:
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. expects brand-loyal flyers and demand for its premium seats to drive profit through the end of the year, maintaining momentum after reporting better-than- expected earnings for the third quarter.
* Morgan Stanley’s stock traders soared past expectations in the third quarter, topping all of its largest rivals as US President Donald Trump’s policies kept markets on edge throughout the period. Shares of the company jumped the most in more than six months.
** As concerns begin to emerge about the quality of US credit, Morgan Stanley reported a noteworthy figure for loan-loss provisions: zero dollars.
* Bank of America Corp.’s third-quarter earnings beat estimates as investment-banking activity surged amid a long-awaited comeback in M&A and net interest income topped analysts’ estimates.
* PNC Financial Services Group Inc.’s more-expensive commercial deposits grew faster in the third quarter, a drag on the net interest margin that pushed the bank further from its year-end goal.
* Walmart Inc.’s US CEO said shoppers are spending at a healthy rate and remain resilient, despite warning signs from banks about the economy.
* Nvidia Corp. added another bull on Wednesday, as HSBC upgraded the chipmaker to buy from hold, citing the ongoing growth of artificial intelligence.
* Apple Inc. rolled out updated versions of the iPad Pro, Vision Pro and entry-level MacBook Pro with the new M5 chip, refreshing the products just ahead of the all-important holiday season.
** Apple is preparing to expand its manufacturing operations in Vietnam as part of a push into the smart home market and an ongoing effort to lessen its dependence on China.
* ASML Holding NV said demand for its most sophisticated chip- making machines is soaring thanks to the artificial intelligence boom, signaling optimism just months after the semiconductor equipment maker warned the trade war could stymie growth.
* Meta Platforms Inc. removed a Facebook group used to share information about Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Chicago after a request from the Justice Department.
* Nscale, a data center developer focused on artificial intelligence, has agreed to build a site for Microsoft Corp. in Texas, the fourth such deal between the companies in the last two months.
* Dollar Tree Inc. projected earnings per share to gain at a compound rate of as much as 15% over the next three years.
* Papa John’s International Inc. jumped as Reuters reports that Apollo Global Management submitted a bid within the last week to take the pizza chain operator private at $64 per share.
* AppLovin Corp. said it has shut down a product linked to user and short-seller allegations that apps were being downloaded to mobile phones without consent.
* Investors led by BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners agreed to buy Aligned Data Centers in a $40 billion deal, one of the asset manager’s largest infrastructure investments ever that comes as Wall Street races to claim a stake in the artificial intelligence boom.
* Lone Star Funds plans to acquire US plastic parts and equipment maker Hillenbrand Inc. in an all-cash transaction valuing the target at around $3.8 billion including debt.
* Novo Nordisk A/S agreed to pay Omeros Corp. as much as $2.1 billion for rights to an experimental rare-disease drug, as the maker of Ozempic continues to use deal-making to build its pipeline.
* Abbott Laboratories cut the top end of its 2025 earnings guidance by 2 cents a share, just as the Trump administration launched an investigation into the medical device sector that could lead to tariffs on its biggest product category.
* Volkswagen AG truck brand Scania AB has opened a €2 billion ($2.3 billion) manufacturing facility in China to supply trucks in the world’s biggest market as well as export to Asia.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc slashed its winter capacity to Berlin and other German cities by 800,000 seats in a dispute over the country’s aviation taxes and access costs.
* Waymo is planning to launch its driverless ride-hailing service in London next year, marking its second international expansion and its first in Europe.
* TotalEnergies SE said its third-quarter profit and cash flow may rise slightly after oil and gas output increased and refining margins jumped from a year earlier, outweighing a drop in crude prices.
* SMBC Nikko Securities Inc.’s planned integration with Jefferies Financial Group Inc. will likely go beyond just bringing together their equity businesses, with ties also possible in other investment banking areas, its chief executive officer said.
* Global investors are ramping up bets on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ahead of its earnings, confident that the world’s leading chip foundry will remain one of the biggest winners from the AI spending boom.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Equities couldn’t quite finish the job of rallying from steep opening losses Tuesday, but this morning are in an ebullient mood after ASML’s strong sales figures underscored the strength of AI investment demand.
It remains very much a bull market from that perspective, and the evidence of the last couple of years suggests that it will take a steady diet of bad news elsewhere to keep the market down for very long.”
—Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
* KBW Bank Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1645
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3393
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 151.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $111,397.42
* Ether fell 3.3% to $3,986.02
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.54%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.50%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $58.47 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,209.88 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shab
” Sometimes I say, Moore’s Law will only stop when people stop having ideas … And I think that has not happened so far.” — Christophe Fouquet
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828