October 15, 2019 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
1844~Friedrich Nietzche, philosopher, born.
1881~P.G. Wodehouse, author, born.
1908~ John Kenneth Galbraith, economist, born.

1917~ Mata Hari executed.
1815 Napoleon Bonaparte arrives on island of St Helena to begin his exile  Go to article »

I just returned from attending the  20^th annual New Yorker Festival in NYC, and once again, it did not disappoint.  It was two and a half days of lively debate and interviews with featured attendees as diverse as Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House and Ina Garten, The Barefoot Contessa.  By far the two most interesting Panel discussions were those on Brexit and another on Saudi Arabia.  The Brexit Panel was composed of tow Remainers and two Brexiters: Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European studies at the University of Oxford and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent, Fintan O’Toole, an Irish journalist, editor, and literary critic, is the author of many books about politics, literature, and the history of Ireland and the U.K. and Lionel Shriver is an American novelist, short-story writer, and journalist.   Needless to say, very impassioned presentations from all.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Boats sail past the “Victory Lighthouse” during the 51^st Barcolanna regatta in the Gulf of Trieste. With some 2000 vessels, The Barcolana has the most participants of any sailing regatta in the world.
CREDIT: ANDREAS SOLARO/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Hunters Moon (also known as Sanguine or Blood Moon) rising above Ely Cathedral in Cambridgeshire, UK. According to the Farmer’s Almanac, the Hunter’s Moon get its name from the Native Americans. After the harvest, animals would come to the fields for scraps. With the full moon, it was easier to see deer and other animals and successfully hunt in the darkness.
CREDIT: ANDREW SHARPE/BAV MEDIA

People walk through the Brockville Railway tunnel in Brockville, Ontario, Canada. Featuring a modern LED coloured light system, this Canadian railway tunnel was opened to the public as a trail in 2017.
CREDIT: XINHUA/BARCROFT MEDIA

Autumn scenery in Yichun, Heilongjiang Province, China.
CREDIT: COSTFOTO/BARCROFT MEDIA

Loch Ard looks Autumnal as Scotland wakes up to low mist and fog.
CREDIT: EUAN CHERRY

Market Closes for October 15^th, 2019  

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1951, working in a laboratory run by the Syntex Corp. in Mexico City, chemists led by Dr. Carl Djerassi created the world’s first synthetic progesterone by altering compounds obtained from inedible yams. Soon, Syntex formulated the hormone into the world’s first effective oral contraceptive. Syntex became one of the greatest growth stocks of the 1950s and 1960s, and the birth-control pill accelerated the rush of women into the workforce, transforming the global economy.
Canada
By Michael Bellusci
(Bloomberg) — Canadian equities opened the holiday- shortened week higher as marijuana grower Aphria Inc. became the first large pot producer to report a second consecutive profitable quarter. The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose less than 0.1% to 16,419. Eight of eleven sectors advanced, with materials being the weakest group. Meanwhile, crude fell for a second day amid a weakening global growth outlook and abundant crude supplies in the world’s largest economy. Also, Shares of Bausch Health Cos. climbed 3.4% after a short-seller changed his tune and said the stock could nearly double.
Commodities
* Western Canada Select crude oil traded at a $15.40 discount to WTI
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $1,481.03 per ounce
FX/Bonds
* The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.2% to C$1.3203 per U.S. dollar
* The Canada 10-year government bond yield gained 4 basis points to 1.565%
Insights
* This year, the index rose 15 percent, heading for the best year since 2016
* The index advanced 6.5 percent in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 8.5 percent in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.1 percent below its 52-week high on Sept. 20, 2019 and 19.2 percent above its low on Dec. 24, 2018
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 1.6 percent in the past 30 days
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 29.7259| 0.6| 22/5
Information Technology | 18.3188| 2.1| 7/2
Health Care | 6.7570| 3.2| 8/2
Communication Services | 2.6810| 0.3| 5/2
Industrials | 0.7840| 0.0| 16/15
Real Estate | 0.7781| 0.1| 18/7
Consumer Discretionary | 0.4026| 0.1| 10/6
Consumer Staples | 0.3573| 0.1| 3/7
Utilities | -5.4531| -0.7| 6/10
Energy | -10.2139| -0.4| 14/17
Materials | -40.9008| -2.3| 7/42
US
By Claire Ballentine and Sarah Ponczek
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks touched four-week highs, led by health care and financial shares, as earnings season began in earnest. The pound strengthened as the U.K. and European Union moved closer to a Brexit deal. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped more than 1.2%, while the S&P 500 topped 3,000 on an intraday basis for the first time in three weeks. Treasury yields rose amid the risk-on backdrop. “Things on the earnings front seem to have gotten off to a pretty decent start, interest rates — although they’ve perked back up a little — are still extremely low, and this trade deal and positive Brexit talk are good for world growth,” said Gary Bradshaw, a portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management. “I like what we see, and the market’s obviously responding well to that.”

In earnings news:
* Johnson & Johnson raised its sales and earnings forecast for the year.
* UnitedHealth beat profit estimates and raised its full-year outlook.
* JPMorgan’s third-quarter results beat estimates, sending its shares higher.
* Goldman Sachs reported investment bank revenue and earnings per share that undershot estimates, but its equities sales and trading was a beat.
* BlackRock said there was a decline in fixed income inflows from the previous quarter as clients moved some money back into equities.

The pound strengthened and gilts fell after two EU officials said negotiators in Brussels are closing in on a draft Brexit deal that could lead to a breakthrough before the end of Tuesday. Crude oil fell for a second day and gold dropped. Japan’s equity gauge jumped as trading resumed after a long weekend during which President Donald Trump announced progress on an interim trade accord with China. Markets elsewhere in Asia were mixed. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose, with all 19 sectors advancing. Investors are closely analyzing earnings, given the global backdrop of slowing growth and a host of unpredictable macro risks. The International Monetary Fund made a fifth-straight cut to its 2019 global growth forecast, citing a broad deceleration across the world’s largest economies as trade tensions undermine the expansion.“The earnings reports that will be particularly noteworthy are those from companies that are tied directly to the economic cycle,” said Michael Geraghty, equity strategist at Cornerstone Capital Group. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira jumped and the country’s benchmark stock index rose after Trump imposed milder penalties over its military campaign in Syria than U.S. lawmakers had demanded.

Here are some key events coming up this week:
* Wednesday brings a monetary policy decision in South Korea.
* U.S. retail sales are forecast to increase for a seventh straight month. Sales in the “control group” are also expected to rise. Consumer spending is carrying the weight of U.S. economic growth so the data will be monitored closely for any signs of slowing.
* China releases third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

Here are the main moves in market:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 Index increased 1% to 2,995.68 as of 4:04 p.m. NewYork time, the highest in more than three weeks.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.9% to 27,024.80, the highest in more than three weeks.
* The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 1.2% to 8,148.71, the highest in more than three weeks.
* The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.1% to 394.02, the highest in about 17 months.
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.1% to 1,206.62.
* The euro climbed 0.1% to $1.1033.
* The Japanese yen depreciated 0.4% to 108.86 per dollar, hitting the weakest in more than 19 weeks with its fifth straight decline.
Bonds
* The yield on two-year Treasuries climbed three basis points to 1.62%, reaching the highest in more than two weeks on its fifth straight advance.
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained four basis points to 1.77%, hitting the highest in more than three weeks with its fifth straight advance.
* Germany’s 10-year yield increased four basis points to -0.42%, the highest in almost 11 weeks.
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 0.694%.
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 1.2% to $52.93 a barrel.
* Gold depreciated 0.8% to $1,481.11 an ounce, the weakest in almost two weeks on the largest fall in two weeks.
Have a great night.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Money differs from an automobile or mistress in being equally
important to those who have it and those who do not.
                                  -John Kenneth Galbraith, 1908-2006
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com