October 14, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

Just back today from an investment conference in New York – lots of worthwhile insights presented by many illustrious money managers and financial sorts, including Ben Bernanke, former US treasury Secretary, who was lauded for his work with the Nobel Prize in economics earlier in the week.  Larry summers was also a presenter.  Lots if information to organize and sort through this weekend…

On Oct. 14, 1964, civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. was named winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.  Go to article »
October 14, 1968: Apollo program: The first live television broadcast by American astronauts form a manned, orbiting American spacecraft is carried out by the Apollo 7 crew.

The European capital of cool that keeps getting cooler.  Affordable rent. Great nightlife. Gorgeous streets. Tourists from around the globe are flocking to this city in droves

Fancy watches are about to get cheaper.

Superhighway of ancient human and animal footprints in England provides an ‘amazing snapshot of the past’:  Thousands of years ago, a swath of land along what is now the western coast of England served as a superhighway for humans and animals alike. Today, the ebb and flow of each passing tide reveals more of the ancient footprints that these long-gone travelers stamped into the once mud-caked route.  Reminders of their travels can be seen along a nearly 2-mile-long (3 kilometers) stretch of coastline near Formby, England. The footprint beds show how, as glaciers melted and sea levels rose after the last ice age ended around 11,700 years ago, humans and animals were forced inland, thus forming a hub of human and animal activity seen in the commingled footprints.  Full Story: Live Science (10/14)

Anglo-Saxon hall where kings and warriors dined discovered in England:  Archaeologists in the east of England have unearthed the remains of an elaborate hall that Anglo-Saxon monarchs and warriors feasted in roughly 1,400 years ago.   The remains of the royal hall — near the village of Rendlesham in Suffolk, about 70 miles (110 kilometers) northeast of London — are only a few miles north of the famous Anglo-Saxon ship burial at Sutton Hoo and a few miles south of another ship burial near the village of Snape.  Full Story: Live Science (10/14)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The start of the swimming section of the Ironman World Championships
Photograph: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Elephant keeper Kiapi Lakupanai plays with calves at the Reteti elephant sanctuary in the Namunyak wildlife conservancy. The sanctuary has been overwhelmed with orphaned and abandoned calves due to drought
Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

Drummers from Spark! perform as part of Light Night Leeds, the country’s largest annual arts and light festival
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
Market Closes for October 14, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1980, the IPO boom of the 1980s got off to a roaring start as Genentech went public at an initial offering price of $35.00. It closed the day’s trading at $71.25, a 103.6% gain, one of the highest first-day returns for a stock in history.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.5% at 18,326.35 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 2.2%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 9.1%.
Today, 201 of 236 shares fell, while 33 rose; all sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 16 times. The next day, it declined 13 times for an average 0.8% and advanced three times for an average 0.3%
* This year, the index fell 14%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index fell 1.4%
* The index declined 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 2.5% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 on a trailing basis and 11.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 23.23% compared with 22.97% in the previous session and the average of 18.37% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -99.0339| -2.8| 1/37
Materials | -89.1791| -4.0| 4/47
Industrials | -43.0257| -1.8| 4/23
Utilities | -14.6557| -1.7| 0/16
Financials | -13.7754| -0.2| 9/20
Communication Services | -11.0427| -1.2| 1/6
Information Technology | -5.3093| -0.6| 3/11
Real Estate | -4.1799| -0.9| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -4.0900| -0.5| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8535| -0.3| 7/6
Health Care | -1.1518| -1.5| 0/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -40.0800| -9.1| 24.1| 13.8
Enbridge | -16.1700| -2.3| 48.8| 1.1
Cenovus Energy | -13.6000| -5.8| -15.1| 48.4
Magna Intl | 1.1290| 0.9| -29.1| -33.7
Intact Financial | 1.6800| 0.7| 5.2| 17.7
TD Bank | 7.4650| 0.7| -7.2| -12.4
US
By Stephen Kirkland and Lu Wang
(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell after a report showed US year-ahead inflation expectations rose for the first time in seven months.
The dollar gained and Treasuries fell.
The S&P 500 closed near lows of the day, falling more than 2%.
The growth-sensitive Nasdaq 100 posted the steepest losses, dropping just over 3% as Treasury yields climbed, with the two-year rate rising back to 4.5%.
Both indexes posted their first weekly declines this month.
Equity markets turned sharply lower after a University of Michigan survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations rose in early October and the long-term outlook also crept up.
The uptick is potentially worrisome for the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep views anchored.
It also follows data a day earlier that showed a key measure of consumer prices accelerated in September to a 40-year high.
On Thursday, however, stocks roared back from early losses in one of the biggest reversals on record.
“Yesterday you had this amazing, powerful intraday rally that was completely wrong,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes. “Then you look at the Michigan numbers this morning that’s consistent with what we’re seeing in the economy, and the stock market now is down to reflect that number. That’s correct.”
Corporate America offered some bright spots, with big banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. rising after reporting results, while Morgan Stanley fell as equity trading revenue disappointed.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. shares gained after the health-care giant beat profit forecasts in the third quarter and raised its outlook for the year.
Earnings next week will provide clues on the strength of a swathe of companies, including Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Netflix Inc., Tesla Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc.
In the latest Fed comments, officials suggested they’re ready to hike rates higher than previously planned.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George said the terminal rate may need to be higher to cool prices.
San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly said she’s “very supportive” raising to restrictive levels and to between 4.5% and 5% “is the most likely outcome.”
Forecasts they released last month showed rates reaching 4.4% by year end and 4.6% next year, from a current target range of 3% to 3.25.
Swaps traders have boosted wagers for rate hikes over the past week following strong payrolls and hot inflation readings, with the market leaning toward back-to-back jumbo hikes at the next two meetings and a high above 4.9% next year.
“A lot of investors are looking at inflation to get guidance on what the Fed is going to do, to find the bottom in the market once the Fed pivots,” Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer and president of First American Trust, said in an interview. “But looking at CPI, unemployment, there’s obviously a lot of heat in the economy. Inflation is going to take some time to come down.”
In the UK, bonds and the pound fell to end another tumultuous week.
Gilts slid as Prime Minister Liz Truss confirmed speculation she will U-turn on a planned freeze on corporation tax.
The Bank of England ended its emergency bond purchases on Friday, buying £1.45 billion of long-dated and inflation-linked gilts.
In the wake of that, 30-year yields rose 23 basis points at 4.78%, after swinging from a drop of over 30 basis points earlier.
Elsewhere, oil posted a weekly loss as inflation-fighting measures and muted Chinese demand soured the market’s outlook, blunting some of the sting from OPEC’s upcoming supply curtailments.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.4% as of 4:06 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $0.9729
* The British pound fell 1.2% to $1.1186
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 148.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $19,177.75
* Ether rose 0.4% to $1,298.58
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.35%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 4.34%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.7% to $85.82 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.7% to $1,648.80 an ounce
–With assistance from John Cheng, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao and Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Now, now my good man, this is no time for making enemies.
-Voltaire , on his deathbed in response to a priest asking that he renounce Satan.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com