Dear Friends,
Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office attending the J.P. Morgan / Robin Hood Investors Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
On Oct. 14, 1947: Chuck Yeager makes the first supersonic flight in the Bell XS-1 at Mach 1.06
On Oct. 14, 1964: Civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. was named winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.
On Oct. 14, 1957: Queen Elizabeth II becomes the first Canadian monarch to open the Parliament of Canada with the Speech from the Throne
Scientists ‘reawaken’ ancient microbes from permafrost — and discover they start churning out CO2 soon after
Researchers incubated permafrost samples from Alaska at different temperatures and found that microbes from the last ice age can reactivate and resume breaking down carbon
Link between Cascadia and San Andreas Fault earthquakes discovered 30 years after lost vessel stumbled across key data
Geological records hint that earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone might trigger the San Andreas Fault.
‘Planet Y’ theory hints at hidden Earth-size world lurking in the solar system — and it could be much closer to us than ‘Planet Nine’
A new study has proposed the existence of Planet Y, an alternative Planet Nine candidate that is smaller and closer to Earth than the hypothetical Planet X, which astronomers have been hunting for almost a decade. However, the evidence for this newly theorized world is “not definitive.”
Scientists create ‘Superwood’ that’s 10 times stronger than steel
A US company has engineered a new type of wood that could potentially leave steel in the dust.
The fight against Alzheimer’s disease
The FDA has cleared another blood test to help rule out Alzheimer’s disease in people showing symptoms.
National Dessert Day (U.S.) — October 14 🍨🎂 🍰🍪
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Álamo, Mexico
People search through clothes donated by locals after torrential rains overflowed rivers, causing flooding in Veracruz state
Photograph: Rolando Ramos/Reuters
Paris, France
French painter Gustave Courbet’s oil-on-canvas Self Portrait, also known as Desperation and The Desperate Man (1843-1845), exhibited on loan at the Musée d’Orsay
Photograph: Ian Langsdon/AFP/Getty Images
Le Sépey, Switzerland
Fog covers part of the Dents du Midi Mountain range on an autumn morning in the village of Le Sépey
Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters
Market Closes for October 14th , 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46270.46 | +202.88 |
| +0.44 | ||
| S&P 500 | 6644.31 | -10.41 |
| -0.16% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22521.70 | -172.91 |
| -0.76% | ||
| TSX | 30353.61 | +502.72 |
| +1.68% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 46847.32 | -1241.48 |
| -2.58% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25441.35 | -448.13 |
| -1.73% | ||
| SENSEX | 82029.98 | -297.07 |
| -0.36% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9452.77 | +9.90 |
| +0.10% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.151 | N/A |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.642 | N/A |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0321 | 4.0322 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.6321 | 4.6187 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7121 | 0.7138 |
| US $ |
1.4042 | 1.4009 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6294 | 0.6137 |
| US $ |
1.1603 | 0.8618 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4095.95 | 4109.25 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 59.49 | 59.63 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1980, the IPO boom of the ’80s got off to a roaring start as Genentech went public. It had a 104% gain, one of the highest first-day returns for a stock in history at the time.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.7% at 30,353.61 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2% on Aug. 5 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.4%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 167 of 214 shares rose, while 45 fell.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.6%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 29.9%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain three times. The next day, it advanced twice for an average 1.2% and declined 3% once
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 36.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 on a trailing basis and 18.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.77t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.92% compared with 8.82% in the previous session and the average of 7.21% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | 174.8052| 1.8| 23/1
Materials | 160.6487| 3.2| 44/7
Industrials | 58.0538| 1.7| 26/3
Information Technology | 44.4549| 1.5| 8/1
Energy | 37.3379| 0.8| 23/15
Consumer Discretionary | 16.6501| 1.8| 8/1
Utilities | 7.0189| 0.6| 10/4
Consumer Staples | 4.8087| 0.5| 7/4
Real Estate | 2.9610| 0.6| 12/6
Health Care | 1.2368| 1.5| 4/0
Communication Services | -5.2511| -0.8| 2/3
Brookfield Corp | 50.4600| 5.6| 4.4| 15.5
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 36.2600| 4.5| 29.8| 113.8
Shopify | 29.4000| 1.6| -17.0| 40.4
TC Energy | -6.0260| -1.1| 26.6| 9.1
Canadian Natural | Resources | -7.7300| -1.2| 0.2| -2.1
Nutrien | -8.1580| -2.9| 40.3| 26.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange bounced back Tuesday, recovering most of the big losses recorded at the end of last week, before the Canada Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as both gold and silver hit record highs, and as Desjardins expects all but one Canadian province to experience higher real GDP growth next year, despite a new round of targeted tariffs from the United States.
Today, the resources heavy index was up 502.72 or 1.7% at 30,353.61, even as oil futures settled lower.
The TSX recovered most of a total 650 points lost over last Thursday and Friday.
Most sectors were higher, led by Base Metals up 6.4% and then Health Care and Info Tech, both up near 2%.
In contrast, the Battery Metals Index was down 2.8% and Telecom eased near 0.6%.
Within the Telecom sector, BCE (BCE.TO, BCE) was down $0.71 or 2.1% at $32.75 after it unveiled its three-year strategic plan ahead of its investor day today.
The Canadian Press noted BCE will begin offering fibre internet services in Western Canada using its rivals’ networks under rules it has long opposed, as it seeks to grow its customer base and push for more bundled subscriptions.
Sector wise, concerns around U.S. trade policy were back in the spotlight here after new 25% tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities came in to effect, in addition to a 10% import tax on softwood timber and lumber.
But the team over at Desjardins said Canadian provincial governments “took precautions for this possibility by being prudent in their budget planning and preparing measures to contend with trade shocks, making them well positioned to weather the storm.”
Desjardins published a note entitled ‘Provincial Economic Outlook: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly’ in which it noted that it has been a “tough year” for Canada and its provinces.
But despite the economic volatility and uncertainty, Desjardins raised its 2025 and 2026 outlooks for real GDP growth nationally and in central Canada, specifically Ontario and Manitoba.
And while Desjardins lowered its 2025 growth projection for energy producing provinces, namely Alberta and Saskatchewan, compared to its June forecast, it now expects all but one province to experience higher real GDP growth next year.
According to Desjardins, “a better growth forecast is just part of the good news”.
Desjardins said it stems from the lower effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from Canada than previously projected, paired with an improved U.S. economic outlook.
“The elimination of countertariffs on many imports from the U.S. will also help support growth by bringing down prices and providing relief to households and businesses.
A broad reduction in internal trade barriers won’t hurt either.
The resulting lower interest rates will be a tailwind to economic activity too,” it added.
But Desjardins also noted ‘bad’ news. Despite falling import tariffs and interest rates, it said the Canadian housing market is “on life support”, particularly in the most unaffordable provinces, Ontario and British Columbia.
In these regions, it noted, mortgage arrears are rising rapidly and condo presales are in the dumps, while at the same time, market rents are falling fast while rental supply is accelerating.
This can in part be linked back to the abrupt reversal in non-permanent resident admissions, a phenomenon which is expected to continue, and possibly accelerate, into 2026, Desjardins added.
That, Desjardins noted, just leaves the ‘ugly’ news. That, it said, speaks more to the risks around the outlook than to the immediate reality.
Going into the 2026 renewal of CUSMA, it added, there remains a material downside risk that the U.S. administration could ratchet up tariffs on Canadian exports again, in a repeat of 2025.
“The administration has taken this approach recently with cabinets and furniture.
However, provincial governments took precautions for this possibility by being prudent in their budget planning and preparing measures to contend with trade shocks, making them well positioned to weather the storm.”
Of commodities, The Wall Street Journal noted gold futures settled the day at a new high, and traders think there’s a potential for gold to rise as high as US$5,000 a troy ounce.
“With ETF flows remaining strong [and] central bank buying expected to be resilient, we feel confident and compelled to update our target prices for gold,” The WSJ cited Ben Hoff of Societe Generale as saying in a note.
The WSJ noted the firm now forecasts gold to hit the $5,000 threshold by the end of 2026.
Front-month gold closed up 0.7% to US$4,138.70 a troy ounce, marking the third straight positive finish.
Silver also found a new high, with the front-month contract closing up 0.4% to $50.314 a troy ounce.
However, oil futures fell for the third time in four sessions with U.S.-China trade issues weighing and the IEA raising its crude surplus estimates for this year and next, The Wall Street Journal noted.
Analysts, it reported, noted the IEA forecasts put supply next year nearly 4 million barrels a day above demand.
“I’m personally not in that camp, but a supply/demand imbalance does look to be in the cards if OPEC continues with higher production numbers,” Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial was cited as saying in a note.
“The latest tensions between the U.S. and China will also be a pressure point on crude as China’s economy could be in question if tensions stay elevated.”
WTI settled down 1.3% at US$58.70 a barrel, and Brent fell 1.5% to US$62.39 a barrel. Price: 30353.61, Change: +502.72, Percent Change: +1.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Resurgent trade tensions slammed Wall Street anew Tuesday, sending stocks, crypto and oil lower while reinforcing a bid for the safest corners of the market from haven currencies to gold.
Following a brief bounce, the S&P 500 retreated as President Donald Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China, injecting fresh tensions into the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
His remarks also came after the Asian nation sanctioned US units of a South Korean shipping giant, escalating a dispute over maritime dominance.
“Since the tariff/trade issue is the one issue that has created problems for the stock market his year, we’ll all be watching the developments on this one very, very closely,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
Despite the slide in the US equity benchmark, shares of crop traders Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Global SA rose.
A gauge of big banks jumped after solid results from financial giants – which unofficially kicked off the earnings season.
Earlier in the session, equities rose as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks reinforced bets on an October rate cut amid job-market weakness.
Two-year yields hovered near the lowest levels since 2022.
Powell also indicated the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, a key move to preserve liquidity in overnight funding markets.
To Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Powell’s remarks were “strong confirmation” of bets on a Fed rate cut at its next meeting.
At Evercore, Krishna Guha said Powell’s assessment of the outlook for the dual mandate objectives as largely unchanged confirms the Fed is on track to ease.
To Gennadiy Goldberg and Oscar Munoz at TD Securities, Chair Powell cleared the path for an end to QT over the coming months.
“We think the Fed will announce an end to balance sheet runoff at the October FOMC meeting.”
The strategists also said the balance sheet is likely to remain steady for some time, but a high-pressure year-end can change that, leading the Fed to consider resuming active purchases of Treasury bills as soon as 2026.
“Ending QT should be supportive of swap spreads, provide more capacity in funding markets, and lower term premium across the curve,” they noted.
“We continue to expect the Fed to cut rates in October and December, and to deliver three more cuts in 2026 for a terminal rate of 3%.”
Swap contracts are pricing in roughly 1.25 percentage points of rate cuts by the end of next year, from the current range of 4%-4.25%.
“As Fed Chair Powell noted, there are no easy paths for the Fed at this point,” saidScott Helfstein at Global X.
“Lowering rates risks accelerating inflation. Holding rates higher presents risk to the job market.”
The Fed is still likely to cut rates in October and December, but investors should be prepared for a range of outcomes as Powell is trying to leave all options open, Helfstein noted.
Markets have moved relentlessly higher over the past few months, and a bit of a breather could be a good thing, he said.
“There is a lot to assess across the weakening labor market, trade policy uncertainty, government shutdown, resilient consumers, and strong corporate fundamentals.
The backdrop remains favorable, but there are plenty of contradictions for investors to wade through,” he said.
A record share of global fund managers said artificial intelligence stocks are in a bubble following a torrid rally this year, according to a survey by Bank of America Corp.
About 54% of participants in the October poll indicated tech stocks were looking too expensive, an about-turn from last month when nearly half had dismissed those concerns.
Fears that global stocks were overvalued also hit a peak in the latest survey.
It’s hard not to see “some frothiness in different sectors,” Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said on the bank’s third-quarter earnings call in response to a question from a reporter about artificial intelligence.
“I feel good about our business and our ability to cover clients,” he went on.
“But it’s hard to look at how equity valuations and multiples sit today and not think there are some sectors that are likely frothy and overvalued.
But we’ll see how those play out over time.”
Today marked the unofficial start of earnings season, and Bret Kenwell at eToro noted that markets have a history of beating consensus expectations, so if that’s the case this time around too, it could bring some much-needed reassurance at a time where volatility has resurfaced.
“Earnings helped steady the ship in early April amid heavy volatility, with financials telling a reassuring story about the consumer.
Management teams grew even more confident over the summer and investors are now hoping for another positive update,” he said.
Beyond the banks, investors will be keeping a close eye on tech — specifically mega-cap tech and AI-related names.
“They’ll want to know if large tech firms are still spending gobs of money on AI infrastructure, and if recent headlines are any indication, the spending cycle is still firing on all cylinders.
Still, with worries of an AI bubble permeating throughout social media, investors want some reassurance that these big capital investments into AI will pay off,” said Kenwell.
How often do you look at prediction markets to inform your trading decisions? Let us know in the latest Markets Pulse survey.
Corporate Highlights:
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon sounded warnings on the potential for a deterioration in credit quality, a cautionary note that put a damper on the firm’s surge in trading and investment-banking revenue.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record third-quarter revenue boosted by a rapid pace of growth in its investment bank that eclipsed Wall Street rivals.
** Goldman Sachs told staffers to expect an additional round of job cuts this year as the bank seeks further savings across its businesses and takes advantage of the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence.
* Citigroup Inc. beat Wall Street revenue estimates across all five of its major business lines, a haul that’s helping the firm manage rising compensation costs and a plan to sell its retail unit in Mexico.
* Wells Fargo & Co. raised a key profitability metric, giving its first major update about the bank’s next growth target after the removal of regulatory restraints it had operated under for more than seven years.
* BlackRock Inc. pulled in $205 billion of client money in the third quarter as the world’s largest fund manager expanded its footprint in private credit and alternative assets.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. landed a major order from Oracle Corp. for its forthcoming MI450 chips, a sign it’s making headway in its pursuit of Nvidia Corp. in the booming market for AI processors.
* Salesforce Inc. said it’s saving about $100 million a year by using artificial intelligence tools in the software company’s customer service operations.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google aims to invest about $15 billion building an AI infrastructure hub in southern India over the next five years, making its biggest bet on the fast-growing country.
* Walmart Inc. is teaming up with OpenAI to enable shoppers to browse and purchase its products on ChatGPT, the retailer’s latest push to incorporate artificial intelligence.
* Domino’s Pizza Inc. posted better-than-expected quarterly results, fueled by demand for promotions and stuffed crust pizza, though said the fourth quarter is off to a slow start.
* Johnson & Johnson said it plans to separate its slower-growing orthopedics business from the rest of the company within 18 to 24 months, giving its innovative drug and device operations more breathing room as the Trump administration pressures pharmaceutical companies to lower prices in the US.
* General Motors Co. is incurring $1.6 billion in charges tied to its pullback from electric vehicles, a stark indication of the damage that US policy changes will inflict on plug-in cars.
* Boeing Co. delivered 160 aircraft during the third quarter, the most since 2018 and an indicator the plane maker is rebounding from the turmoil that damaged its finances and reputation.
** Boeing and Airbus SE are suffering “unprecedented” delays in certifying and delivering aircraft, stifling airlines’ growth and plans to decarbonize, customers say.
* Instagram, which is owned by Meta Platforms Inc., will prohibit users under 18 from seeing content considered inappropriate for a PG-13-rated movie, extending teen protections that were rolled out last year.
* Freeport McMoRan Inc. plans to break away from the benchmark pricing system underpinning global sales of mined copper ores to protect the profitability of smelters, the company’s top commercial executive said in an interview.
* ConocoPhillips’ Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance said that there’s little sign of supply-demand weakness right now to justify bearish sentiment in the oil market.
* BP Plc said weak oil trading undercut profit while production increased for a second straight quarter, offering investors a mixed snapshot as the energy giant continues efforts to improve performance.
* Spotify Technology SA’s push into audiobooks appears to be catching on, with more people using the service and publishers giving the streaming company credit for recent growth.
* Rayonier Inc. agreed to buy PotlatchDeltic Corp. in an all- stock deal valued at about $3.4 billion that would create one of the largest publicly traded timber and wood products companies in North America.
* LVMH sales unexpectedly returned to growth in the third quarter as shoppers splurged on Moët & Chandon Champagne and Dior perfumes, suggesting a persistent slump in luxury demand is easing.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“This was Powell’s opportunity to guide markets before the Fed’s upcoming meeting at the end of the month, and his comments provide little reason to think the central bank won’t cut rates.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.4%
* KBW Bank Index rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1606
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3327
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 151.71 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $112,792.11
* Ether fell 4.1% to $4,115.51
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.59%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.47%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $58.47 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,144.45 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shab
” Go as far as you can see; when you get there, you’ll be able to see farther.” — John Pierpont Morgan Sr
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828