October 10, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
October 10, 1979: Hockey Hall-of-Famer Wayne Gretzky made his NHL debut with the Edmonton Oilers.  Go to article >>

1970: Fiji gains independence from the United Kingdom.
1973: Spiro Agnew resignation.
1845: U.S. Naval Academy established.
Giuseppi Verdi, composer, b.1813.

Flag football among new sports being considered for 2028 Olympics.
Olympic organizers have proposed five new sports for inclusion in the 2028 Games: baseball/softball, cricket, lacrosse, squash and flag football.

National Museum of Women in the Arts reopens after $67.5M makeover
After undergoing a full renovation, the museum in Washington, DC, is set to open next weekend with an ambitious show of sculptures and installations.

Ancient Roman site of Pompeii is about to ‘expand’
See how archeologists plan to make one of the world’s most famous ancient sites “bigger” in order to welcome more tourists.

‘The Crown’ final season gets release date
The dates for the sixth and final season of “The Crown” were announced Monday, along with the release of a new trailer. Netflix has also teased a royal wedding will be featured.

Scientist finally map Zealandia, Earth’s hidden continent
In a world first, scientists have fully mapped the lost continent of Zealandia, discovering new details about how it broke away from the supercontinent Gondwana through the ignition of a huge volcanic region tens of millions of years ago.  Read More.

Yellow sea snail named after late musician Jimmy Buffett
The margarita sea snail, which shoots out a toxic mucus web to catch prey, was discovered on a coral reef in the Florida Keys and was named after Buffett, who died on Sept. 1. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dorset, UK
A spectacular sunrise over Corfe Castle, surrounded by early morning fog, on the Isle of Purbeck on Monday.  Photograph: Rachel Baker/BNPS

Fife, Scotland
The Flying Scotsman steams over the Forth Bridge near North Queensferry. The most famous steam locomotive in the world is celebrating its centenary year, having entered service on 24 February 1923
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA.

​​​​​​​Berlin, Germany
Costumed artists present an artificial 5-metre tall elephant to promote Aida – The Arena Opera Spectacle which will have its world premiere in Hamburg on 2 February. Afterwards, the opera production will tour Germany and other European countries.  Photograph: Hannibal Hanschke/EPA.
Market Closes for October 10^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1962, the Self-Employed Individual Retirement Tax Act created the Keogh plan, the first retirement account that individuals could control and determine for themselves.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1.3%, or 255.13 to 19,501.20 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Sept. 14.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 178 of 227 shares rose, while 47 fell.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.5%.
Lithium Americas Argentina Corp. had the largest increase, rising 15.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain nine times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.4% and declined three times for an average 1%
* This year, the index rose 0.6%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 4.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.4% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 9.1% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and fell 2.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.06t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.61% compared with 14.32% in the previous session and the average of 13.14% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 112.4776| 3.2| 39/1
Materials | 47.3852| 2.1| 43/7
Financials | 44.6459| 0.8| 18/10
Utilities | 14.1502| 1.8| 15/0
Industrials | 13.6697| 0.5| 21/5
Communication Services | 7.7851| 1.1| 4/1
Information Technology | 4.9503| 0.3| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | 4.8240| 0.7| 11/3
Consumer Staples | 3.2706| 0.4| 6/5
Real Estate | 2.4010| 0.5| 15/6
Health Care | -0.4433| -0.8| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 34.9600| 5.5|n/a | 17.8
Brookfield Corp | 20.2400| 4.8|n/a | 2.7
Suncor Energy | 18.5800| 4.6|n/a | 7.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -3.8400| -0.6|n/a | -2.0
Constellation Software | -4.0020| -1.0|n/a | 37.5
Fairfax Financial | -6.1600| -3.4|n/a | 40.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose and Treasury yields fell after comments from Federal Reserve officials bolstered speculation the central bank is heading toward another pause in interest-rate hikes.
Oil edged lower, following its biggest rally since April.
The S&P 500 advanced for a third straight day, with some analysts also citing a rebound from oversold levels.
Amazon.com Inc. gained amid its fall sale for Prime subscribers.
PepsiCo Inc. climbed on a bullish forecast.
A measure of US-listed Chinese shares added 3.1% as Bloomberg News reported the Asian nation is considering new economic stimulus.
European equities rallied the most since November 2022.
Treasuries gained, catching up with the global bond rally on Monday, when cash trading in the US was closed.
Ten-year yields sank 15 basis points to 4.65%.
Fed swaps show about a 60% chance the Fed will stay on hold in December, compared with 60% odds of another hike by then, just a week ago.
The dollar fell for a fifth straight day, its longest losing streak since July.
In a week jam-packed with speeches from US central bank officials, Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said policy is restrictive enough to lower prices to the 2% goal.
His Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari said it’s “possible” that rising yields may mean Fed has to do less.
“Policymakers have begun to acknowledge a lesser need for further policy action given financial conditions have tightened considerably after the recent surge in Treasury yields,” said Ben Jeffery at BMO Capital Markets. “This acknowledgment may have reduced angst around the need for additional rate increases.”
Investors will be watching for any hints in the September Fed meeting minutes due Wednesday that would suggest the Fed may not follow through with the last hike indicated in its economic projections, according to Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics.
Two critical upcoming economic indicators — Thursday’s consumer price index and Friday’s University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey — may give a more definitive read, she noted.
“Risks to CPI this week are to the upside, reflecting dynamics in individual components such as auto prices. An upside surprise may see even more market buy-in to the downside, as investors are acutely concerned about rising energy prices,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments.
While Goodwin said an additional hike may still be in the cards, she cited the fact that market financial conditions are tightening — reflecting higher risk in the real economy, government funding, and geopolitical developments.  “This may be enough to key the Fed on pause,” Goodwin noted.
Global investors also kept a close eye on geopolitics.
President Joe Biden said the US is “surging” military assistance to Israel in the wake of the Palestinian militant group Hamas’ surprise attack.
The shekel regained its footing as the central bank dueled short sellers to contain the market fallout from Israel’s conflict with militant group Hamas.
The currency strengthened as much as 1% in the first half hour of trading on Tuesday and was little changed against the dollar.
Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC the current geopolitical environment is the “most threatening and challenging” he’s ever seen in the wake of Hamas’s attack on Israel over the weekend and predicted the US will enter into a recession early next year.
European gas prices jumped, with Finland is on high alert as it suspects a gas pipeline leak in the Baltic Sea was caused by a deliberate act of destruction, fueling concerns about the safety of Europe’s energy infrastructure.
Base metals sank amid fresh fears over property turmoil in China.

Corporate News
* Boeing Co. said it delivered 27 commercial jets in September, marking the third consecutive month that shipments have declined as manufacturing glitches put its annual target in jeopardy.
* General Motors Co. reached a contract with its Canadian union, ending a strike that began about 13 hours earlier at three plants in Ontario.
* Birkenstock Holding Plc’s initial public offering is expected to price Tuesday after the trading day ends, the last of four big listings seen as pacesetters for US equity markets.
* LVMH’s sales growth softened in the third quarter as shoppers reined in spending on high-end Cognac and costly handbags, more evidence the post-pandemic luxury boom is waning.
* Drugmaker Mallinckrodt Plc won court approval for a new debt-reduction plan that will slash about $1 billion from the sum the company must pay victims of America’s opioid epidemic.
Key events this week:
* Germany CPI, Wednesday
* NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels, Wednesday
* Russia Energy Week in Moscow, with officials from OPEC members and others, Wednesday
* US PPI, Wednesday
* Minutes of Fed’s September policy meeting, Wednesday
* Fed’s Michelle Bowman and Raphael Bostic speak at separate events, Wednesday
* Japan machinery orders, PPI, Thursday
* Bank of Japan’s Asahi Noguchi speaks, Thursday
* UK industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, CPI, Thursday
* European Central Bank publishes account of September policy meeting, Thursday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* China CPI, PPI, trade, Friday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock results as the quarterly earnings season kicks off, Friday
* G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet as part of IMF gathering, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speak on IMF panel, Friday
* Fed’s Patrick Harker speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0604
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2286
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 148.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $27,409.41
* Ether fell 0.7% to $1,566.11
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 15 basis points to 4.65%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.77%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.43%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $85.77 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,873.80 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Liz Capo McCormick.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You will never do anything in this world without courage.  It is the greatest quality of the mind next to honor. –Aristotle, 384 BC-322 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com