October 09th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!
Carolann is away from the office attending the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 9, 1446 Korean Hangul alphabet is first published by King Sejong the Great
On Oct. 9, 1876 First two-way telephone conversation over outdoor wires
On Oct. 9, 1941 US President Franklin D. Roosevelt approves an atomic program that would become the Manhattan Project
On Oct. 9, 1975 Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov wins the Nobel Peace Prize
On Oct. 9, 2006 Google Inc. announced it was snapping up YouTube Inc. for $1.65 billion in a stock deal. Go to article

James Webb telescope finds ‘remarkable’ evidence that a black hole plowed through a galaxy, leaving an enormous scar behind
Using JWST and ALMA data, astronomers have spotted a superlong and narrow ‘galactic contrail,’ possibly produced by a black hole. The gas- and dust-rich tail is 20,000 light-years long but just 650 light-years wide.

Psychedelic beer may have helped pre-Inca empire in Peru schmooze elite outsiders and consolidate power
The Wari used beer mixed with psychedelics to help build an empire in Peru around 1,200 years ago, a new study suggests.

Scientists invent ‘Pulse-Fi’ prototype — a Wi-Fi heart rate monitor that’s cheaper to set up than the best wearable devices
Engineers are in the early stages of harnessing Wi-Fi as a way to monitor heart rates, but don’t expect to use your home router anytime soon.

Climbing Europe’s highest sand dune is both peculiar and rewarding
Watch this video to see what it’s like to trek up the Dune du Pilat.

The rise of ‘cozy coloring’
There’s a new trend in adult coloring — and it may help draw you in for a relaxing, low-pressure evening.

Bon appétit: Tucked away in Bordeaux’s countryside, a discreet farm nurtures an indulgence from start to finish. Often paired well with crème fraîche, the delicacy comes from sturgeon fish. Hint: we’re not talking pastry!
The 44 best products CNN tried last month
In September, our editors tried an abundance of products from fall fashion staples and durable phone cases to comfortable walking shoes. Check out the full list of items we can’t stop gushing about.

John Lennon, b. 1940. 🎶

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Madrid, Spain
Portrait of Philip IV on Horseback by Diego Velázquez is unveiled after its restoration at the Prado Museum
Photograph: ZIPI/EPA

London, UK

The exhibition Wayne Thiebaud: American Still Life will open at the Courtauld Gallery in Somerset House on Friday, displaying the artist’s work in the UK for the first time
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

​​​​​​​London, UK

One of 10 stamps released to mark the 90th anniversary of the board game Monopoly
Photograph: Royal Mail/PA
Market Closes for October 9th , 2025

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
Dow
Jones
46358.42 -243.36
  -0.52
S&P 500  6735.11 -18.61
-0.28%
NASDAQ  23024.63 -18.75
-0.08%
TSX  30269.98 -232.01
-0.76%

International Markets

Market
Index 
Close  Change 
NIKKEI  48580.44 +845.45
+1.77%
HANG
SENG
26752.59 -76.87
-0.29%
SENSEX  82172.10 +398.44
+0.49%
FTSE 100* 9509.40 -39.47
-0.41%

Bonds

Bonds  % Yield  Previous % Yield
CND.
10 Year Bond 
3.203 3.190
CND.
30 Year
Bond 
3.721 3.725
U.S.
10 Year Bond
4.1384 4.1171
U.S.
30 Year Bond
4.7212 4.7075

Currencies

BOC Close  Today  Previous  
Canadian $   0.7133 0.7167
US
$
1.4019 1.3952

 

Euro Rate
1 Euro= 
  Inverse   
Canadian $   1.6212 0.6168
US
$
1.1564 0.8647

Commodities

Gold Close  Previous  
London Gold
Fix
4040.05 3979.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future 61.51 62.55

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1953, trading on the New York Stock Exchange totaled just 900,000 shares. It was the last day on which total daily trading volume was less than 1 million shares.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 30,269.98 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Aug.

1 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 164 of 214 shares fell, while 48 rose.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.2%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index fell 0.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 36.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.87t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.44% compared with 6.83% in the previous session and the average of 7.44% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -147.6802| -2.8| 4/47
Industrials | -37.5918| -1.1| 7/21
Energy | -34.9586| -0.7| 9/30
Consumer Discretionary| -10.5069| -1.1| 0/9
Utilities | -4.8913| -0.4| 3/11
Real Estate | -1.9650| -0.4| 2/16
Financials | -1.8120| 0.0| 6/18
Information Technology| -0.7190| 0.0| 5/4
Health Care | -0.1482| -0.2| 2/2
Consumer Staples | 0.9348| 0.1| 5/6
Communication Services| 7.3438| 1.2| 5/0
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -34.5800| -4.2| -0.6| 101.7
Shopify | -21.6400| -1.1| -43.8| 50.3
Franco-Nevada | -17.4100| -4.3| -7.9| 69.1
Celestica | 7.0350| 2.5| -40.3| 174.8
Constellation | Software | 11.2200| 2.1| -40.0| -11.1
RBC | 12.7600| 0.6| -17.9| 17.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange dived Thursday on profit taking after a series of recent record closes, on deflated commodity prices while some market watchers, including Scotia Economics, expect that U.S. tariffs will continue to weigh on growth for the foreseeable future.
The S&P/TSX Composite closed down 232 points, or 0.75%, to 30,269.98, although sectors were mixed.
Industrials was the biggest loser, down 1%, while no other sector eased by as much as 0.5%.
Among gainers, the Battery Metals Index was up 4.75% and Telecom up 1.2%

Related to Industrials, Industry Minister Melanie Joly on Thursday detailed Canada’s updated industrial strategy and how the governing Liberals plan to bolster key sectors, including steel, aluminum, lumber and auto, all of which are struggling under U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In other sector news, a senior official at the Bank of Canada, senior deputy governor Carolyn Roger, called for more competition in the banking sector to better serve Canadians and the economy in a speech at the Canadian Club in Toronto on Thursday morning.
On trade matters, RBC Economics noted the economic impact of U.S. policy has not only had a larger impact on trade-sensitive sectors and regions, concentrated in the manufacturing sector to date, but also across the income and wealth distribution of households.
In Canada, RBC said, the household wealth gap widened during Q2 as the housing market’s weaker performance limited gains for the least wealthy households.
Meanwhile, it added, wealthier households saw larger benefits from the strong rebound in the equity markets following a weak Q1.

With a deeper look into trade, Scotia Economics published a ‘Monthly Trade Publication on Canada-US Trade’ for August 2025.
In its Scotia noted Canada’s goods exports fell back again in August, after having improved slightly in the prior three months following the large drop in April.
Exports fell by 3.0% and imports increased by 0.9%, lifting the goods trade deficit to $6.3 billion.
The export categories with the largest declines in August were metals, led by unwrought gold, industrial machinery and parts, forestry products, and motor vehicles and parts.

On a year over year basis, Scotia noted, Canadian goods exports were down 5.5% in August, and down 5.2% on average over the last three months (Jun-Aug), with the largest percentage declines in industrial chemicals, metals, energy products, and forestry products.
Imports were up 1.7% in August, and up 1.5% on average since June.
It also noted the share of Canadian exports bound for the United States declined from 76% in 2024 to 72% in August, driven by a marked decline in exports to the U.S. in 2025 and only modest growth in exports to other countries.
Exports to the U.S. were down 3.4% m/m and 8.0% y/y.
Exports to other countries fell 2.0% m/m but were up 1.8% y/y.

Scotia noted Canada’s trade in services with the U.S. is much smaller than trade in goods but has been much more stable.
It has even improved from a small deficit at the end of 2024 to a surplus of $0.3 billion as of August, thanks to further growth in commercial services exports and a 10% decline in travel imports (i.e., international vacations).

Meanwhile, Scotia noted, after widening drastically early in the year on tariff-front-running imports, the U.S. trade deficit has returned to roughly its 2024 level.
However, there have been compositional changes to U.S. trade flows.
As of July, U.S. imports were running significantly lower year over year from Canada, down 10%, the E.U., down 11%, and China, down 35%, and higher from Mexico, up 11%, and the rest of the world, up 21%.
Scotia also noted U.S. customs data show the proportion of Canadian goods imported into the United States facing tariffs has stabilized at near 10%, down from 20%, due to the increased incentive for firms to submit CUSMA compliance paperwork.

Scotia said: “While uncertainty and effective tariff rates have come down from the peaks of the spring, they remain elevated and continue to weigh on growth around the world.
In addition, new U.S. tariff announcements on pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks demonstrate the continued fluidity of the global trade landscape.”

It also said: “Canada continues to benefit from a low effective tariff rate on exports to the U.S. (4.6% is our estimate) thanks to most of our trade continuing on a free-trade basis under CUSMA.
However, most of the Canadian industries impacted by the sectoral tariffs have seen clear export declines — especially steel, aluminum, and forestry products.”

Scotia added: “Some relief for Canada from some of the sectoral tariffs, as is apparently under discussion, would provide a welcome boost to these industries, but it is difficult to be very confident that the relief would be permanently maintained and/or not offset by new tariffs. As a result, we expect that U.S. tariffs will continue to weigh on growth for the foreseeable future.”
Of commodities today, gold had moved down from a record high by midafternoon Thursday as traders took profits while the dollar rose to a two-month high.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $77.00 to US$3,993.50 per ounce.

Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas reduced tensions in the Middle East, lowering the geopolitical risk premium on the commodity.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $1.04 to settle at $61.51 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen down $1.13 to $65.15.

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s relentless surge from April’s meltdown keeps showing signs that the stock market is overstretched, spurring calls for a breather at a time when the classic dip-buying strategy stays firmly in place.
Nobody needs to look hard to find warnings that the market looks frothy after a 36% surge from April’s nadir pushed valuations to levels associated with periods of exuberance.
While the AI euphoria has kept the party going for equities, recent chatter about a bubble forming in the group that has powered the bull market has drawn the attention from investors around the world.
“While some areas of the market appear overheated, overall sentiment does not reflect the excessive optimism often seen at market peaks,” said Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services Inc.
“Still, the extended stretch without a meaningful pullback leaves the market more sensitive to negative surprises.”

At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson notes it’s prudent to be vigilant when it comes to stocks that appear short-term stretched to the upside.
Underlying market breadth is showing early signs of fatigue, which may lead to a consolidation phase, he said.

The S&P 500 fell to around 6,735. US 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.14%.
The dollar notched a 10-week high.

Oil sank as Middle East tensions cooled.
Lerner at Truist noted that this is the 11th bull market in stocks since 1957, with the S&P 500 up about 90% from its October 2022 lows — which is below the median gain seen in prior ones.
Of the 10 previous bull markets, seven extended beyond three years, he noted.

Although valuations are elevated and risks persist, the combination of continued economic growth, resilient corporate profits, and a supportive policy backdrop provides a solid foundation for maintaining a constructive stance heading into the fourth year of this cycle, Lerner added.
“It always seems like a sucker’s bet to put any money into the market when it’s trading at all-time highs,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“As the seemingly intelligent pundits will say, the easy money has been made (even though they were never out there a year ago saying the easy money is about to be made).”

Since 1953, when the five-day trading week in its current form started, however, the S&P 500’s historical returns following a close at all-time highs are only slightly less positive than its average return for all periods since 1953, Bespoke said.
“The best strategy for passive investors, especially, is not to overthink things,” the strategists noted.
Worries have been compounding for the better half of the bull market in US stocks specifically around the concentration of Big Tech names that have driven the S&P 500’s valuation to bubble-like levels.
While valuations aren’t necessarily an ideal market-timing tool, with the group of “Magnificent Seven” megacaps surging over 260% since the start of the artificial-intelligence frenzy in late 2022, there’s been growing debate over how much further the AI trade can fuel the rally in equities.
Never before has so much money been spent so rapidly on a technology that, for all its potential, remains largely unproven as an avenue for profit-making.
And often, these investments can be traced back to two leading firms: Nvidia Corp. and OpenAI.

While there have been some concerns that “circular” deals are creating a bubble, there’s not much evidence that suggests one is about to burst.
“Is AI a bubble? Not yet, at least not to the extent that I think a ‘pop’ is imminent,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“This isn’t a valuation bubble like we saw with Pets.com and others in the late 1990s.
It’s a capital expenditure bubble.”

Profit-Driven Big Tech Rally Is ‘Not a Bubble’: Equity Insight
There’s so much money being spent (and so much more promised to be spent) on AI infrastructure that it has become a large part of the US economy and the biggest driver of the multi-year bull market, he noted.
The key to all this is “adoption,” Essaye added.

“When will regular people and businesses use AI the way we all (finally) used the internet to create money for thousands of varied companies? For the stock market, the answer is clear: The sooner, the better, and the clock is ticking,” he said.
“Altogether, these deals point to hundreds of billions in investment commitments, reinforcing the sector’s rapid capital deployment and pace of innovation,” said Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“At the same time, market concern over ‘circular investments’ within AI companies and a potential AI-led stock market bubble has grown louder.”

While she agrees that the scale of the rally means volatility could pick up — and one should remain alert to signs of froth — she sees several compelling reasons for investors to stay engaged with the AI theme.
“So while the AI trade is not without its risks, we see compelling reasons to stay engaged.
In our view, the rally remains underpinned by solid fundamentals, accelerating adoption, and a still-favorable macro environment,” she said.

“One of the main reasons the AI bubble talk is misplaced is that the leading spenders continue to enjoy increased earnings power, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“These aren’t the dot-com companies of a quarter-century ago that didn’t have earnings, or even viable business models,” he said.
“That doesn’t mean the market won’t have setbacks, though. Investors may want to take a look at quality dividend- growth stocks.”

They’ve been out of favor for a while, but they could be a decent hedge if the market experiences a consolidation in the near term, Skelly concluded.
Even after a series of records to all-time highs, stock positioning data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggests some investors including hedge funds are holding back.
The equity beta of monthly reporting Macro hedge funds — an indicator of their exposure — remains modestly negative despite becoming slightly less so in recent months, the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said.
The strategists added that speculative positioning in US equity futures is relatively close to their long-run median, after having been well above the median in 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025. This signals that overall exposure is only close to historical average rather than extended.
Some “light profit-taking” is understandable ahead of earnings season, but sentiment is still broadly positive, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“Active traders continue to buy the dips, keeping momentum alive.
You can see this in the shallow retracements and the steady string of record highs across the major indices. In this environment, looking for bearish setups feels counterintuitive – the market simply isn’t giving short-sellers much to work with,” he said.

To Razaqzada, the recent signals don’t necessarily point to an imminent selloff, but they do suggest that markets may need a breather – either through sideways consolidation or a modest pullback.
“For now, though, the underlying message remains the same: the trend is your friend. If you’re already long, there’s no reason to panic.
If you’re not, patience may be the better play – wait for a pullback, then consider buying the dip.”

He also noted that the question now is whether the rally still legs has as we move into earnings season.
“With most economic data releases on hold due to the government shutdown, company earnings may have even more of an impact on market direction than usual.
And as we get ready to kick off the third-quarter earnings season, it’s expected to bring another strong set of results,” said Liz Thomas at SoFi.

One of the datasets that will be critical to watch is profit margins amid persistent debate around the possible effect of tariffs on company results, she said.
From a sector perspective, some of the strongest margins are expected to come from technology and communications, Thomas noted.

“In conclusion, third-quarter earnings season looks to be another set of strong results with companies likely surpassing expectations broadly,”she said.
“If that ends up being the case, the rally has further support and the already high valuations of many stocks can remain high.”

With the onset of reporting season approaching, Ryan Grabinski at Strategas noted that we’ll be in the “peak buyback blackout window” over the next two weeks.
“This potentially opens up the window for a period of weakness when accounting for growth fears,” he said.
“On a positive note, the corporate bid should reassert itself by early November as we head into year end.”

US stocks are likely to continue climbing into year-end as robust corporate earnings — particularly in megacap technology giants — keep driving shares higher, according to Nuveen Asset Management’s chief investment officer.
For equities, the fourth quarter “is normally a strong quarter, especially when we’re up substantially year to date,” Saira Malik said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“So odds are in your favor for this rally to continue.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The US has approved several billion dollars worth of Nvidia Corp. chip exports to the United Arab Emirates, an initial step in implementing a controversial deal that could serve as a blueprint for American AI statecraft.
* Microsoft Corp.’s data-center crunch will continue for longer than the company has previously outlined, underscoring the software giant’s struggles to keep up with cloud demand.
* OpenAI has raised concerns with European Union antitrust enforcers over potentially harmful conduct by the likes of Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Microsoft and Apple Inc.
* Google’s cloud unit is launching an artificial intelligence platform called Gemini Enterprise that it hopes will reach everyday workers, setting up a deeper competition with Microsoft and OpenAI for business tools.
* Amazon.com Inc. is rolling out an updated version of its main artificial intelligence tool for business, the latest effort to grab a slice of the market for software designed to automate and speed up office work.
* US auto safety regulators are investigating Tesla Inc. over incidents in which its vehicles drove through red lights and violated other traffic laws while using the company’s partial- automation software.
* Intel Corp., the embattled chipmaker now backed by the US government, introduced new products and manufacturing technology that are central to its turnaround bid.
* Salesforce Inc. is launching a product for information technology management, moving into a new area for the company’s software and deepening its competition with ServiceNow Inc.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. plans to acquire a 45-doctor medical practice in Massachusetts in a sign that its Optum division will keep adding doctors despite turmoil in the business.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. Chief Executive Officer David Ellison, who is reportedly weighing a merger with Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., said he sees a lot of opportunity for consolidation in the industry.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s film chiefs Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy, fresh off the renewal of their contracts, confirmed that the studio will make a sequel to this year’s hit A Minecraft Movie.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. predicted continued strong demand into next year after reporting better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter, helped by leisure travelers splurging on premium seats and a rebound in corporate travel.
* Citigroup Inc. rejected an offer from mining magnate German Larrea’s conglomerate, Grupo Mexico SAB, to acquire its Grupo Financiero Banamex business.
* Lyft Inc. is partnering with autonomous vehicle developer Tensor Auto Inc. to deploy a fleet of hundreds of robotaxis in Europe and North America starting in 2027.
* PepsiCo Inc. said it is working to cut costs and overhaul its portfolio to meet consumers’ shifting tastes, while it engages in discussions with an activist investor.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. rose after the warehouse club reported comparable sales growth that beat analyst estimates for September, helped by a rise in both foot traffic and amount spent per customer.
* The Trump administration is considering whether to take a major step toward restricting the US operations of TP-Link Systems Inc., a China-linked router-maker whose Wi-Fi equipment is popular in the American market, according to people familiar with the matter.
* The rally in shares of US miners of rare-earth materials got a boost Thursday after a China curb on exports of the minerals fueled bets that the American industry will benefit — and potentially spur additional investments from the federal government.
* Marathon Asset Management LP bought the term loan of collapsed First Brands Group at around 40 cents on the dollar and sees it as a “great company” with a bad balance sheet, Chief Executive Officer Bruce Richards said.
* Novo Nordisk A/S agreed to buy Akero Therapeutics Inc. for as much as $5.2 billion to expand its portfolio in a type of liver disease that’s linked to obesity.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 30% increase in its third-quarter sales as major US tech companies continued to make multibillion-dollar bets on AI.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1563
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3300
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 153.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $121,060.06
* Ether fell 3.6% to $4,341.05
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.75%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $61.47 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.6% to $3,978.15 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” Move fast with stable infrastructure.”– Mark Elliot Zuckerberg

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828