November 8, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

My November Guest

My Sorrow, when she’s here with me,
Thinks these dark days of autumn rain
Are beautiful as days can be;
She loves the bare, the withered tree;
She walked the sodden pasture lane.

Her pleasure will not let me stay.
She talks and I am fain to list:
She’s glad the birds are gone away,
She’s glad her simple worsted gray
Is silver now with clinging mist.

The desolate, deserted trees,
The faded earth, the heavy sky,
The beauties she so truly sees,
She thinks I have no eye for these,
And vexes me for reason why.

Not yesterday I learned to know
The love of bare November days
Before the coming of the snow,
But it were vain to tell her so,
And they are better for her praise.

Robert Frost 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kenyan comedians prepare villagers for a mock-vote for the 2016 US presidential elections in the ancestral home of President Barack Obama in Nyangoma Kogelo, west of Kenya’s capital Nairobi, on Tuesday. Moses Eshiwani/Reuters

Lucas Museum of Narrative Art (LMNA) registrar Nicole Manis unpacks the Yoda puppet, used in the original movies, at the Star Wars Identities exhibition at the 02 in London on Tuesday. Dylan Martinez/Reuters

An actress dressed in a period costume walks through the snow in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Tuesday. Dmitri Lovetsky/AP
Market Closes for November 8^th, 2016

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Number of the Day
129.1 million
About 129.1 million people cast votes in the 2012 presidential election, according to Pew Research, about 53.6% of the voting-age population. That percentage ranked 31st out of the 35 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Canada
By Eric Lam
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks ended the day slightly higher, giving back earlier gains as investors waited to see the results of the U.S. presidential election.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index added 4 points to 14,656.84 at 4 p.m. in Toronto all but erasing a gain of 0.4 percent. The equity benchmark rallied the most in three weeks Monday, and is now up 13 percent in 2016, the top performer among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg. Canadian stocks are now 12 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index.
     In the U.S., equities rose a second day, adding to the strongest rally in eight months as voters headed to the polls with Democrat Hillary Clinton holding a narrow lead in most pre- election surveys. Donald Trump continued to hold out on whether he would accept the results of the election. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.4 percent in New York, capping its biggest back-to-back gain since June.
     Raw-materials producers and lenders led the gainers in the index while energy producers ended the day down 0.2 percent. Oil traded near $45 a barrel in New York, little-changed after advancing the most in more than two weeks Monday. OPEC increased its forecast for global oil demand next year, anticipating cheaper crude will spur increased consumption.
     Teck Resources Ltd. rose 2.6 percent, to the highest close in three years, as spot metallurgical coal topped $300 a metric ton for the first time since flooding in Australia curbed output five years ago. Teck is the best-performing stock in the S&P/TSX this year with a more than five-fold increase.
     Health-care shares plunged with Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. warning of more possible surprises for investors. Valeant tumbled 22 percent to the lowest level in six years. New management at the struggling drug maker cut the company’s annual profit forecast to well below estimates after reporting a $1.22 billion net loss on writedowns of some of its U.S. businesses. Paul S. Herendeen, the new chief financial officer, warned there may be further surprises in store for investors. Valeant shares have plunged 86 percent this year.
     Health-care is the worst-performing industry among the 11 groups in the S&P/TSX this year, plummeting 78 percent as shares of Valeant and smaller peer Concordia International Corp. have lost most of their market value. The drugmaking industry has come under intense scrutiny over the past year for skyrocketing pharmaceutical prices and become the focus of government investigations. Concordia lost 10 percent for a fourth day of losses, trading at the lowest in three years.
US
By Joseph Ciolli and Rebecca Spalding
     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 Index posting its best two-day climb since June, as investors awaited election results amid a tight contest for president.
     The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to 2,139.56 at 4 p.m. in New York, after erasing a 0.4 percent slide, to close at a two-week high. The gauge climbed as much as 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 73.14 points, or 0.4 percent, to 18,332.74, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent. About 7 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 6 percent more than the three-month average.
     “There’s still a relief rally occurring following yesterday’s big gain,” said Bill Schultz, who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer of McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. “Clinton represents less change, and positive news for her will be a positive for the market. Any uncertainty removed from an outlook is always good.”
     The main benchmark for U.S. equity continued to climb after surging the most in eight months yesterday. The FBI on Sunday reiterated that Hillary Clinton’s controversial handling of her e-mails wasn’t a crime, bolstering speculation on her chances for victory in the election. The CBOE Volatility Index edged higher today after halting on Monday its longest streak of gains ever.
     A provider of real-time analysis of voter turnout estimates that Clinton has earned more early votes than Republican Donald Trump in battleground states including Florida, Iowa and Nevada. Analysis by Slate.com’s Votecastr showed Trump trailing in Pennsylvania after holding an earlier lead.
     Votecastr is using an unproven technique to deliver real- time updates on voter turnout in combination with polling done ahead of Election Day. The site says its information is not making a prediction on who will win any states.
     Clinton and Trump have spent the past days campaigning in key states as polls showed the race had tightened. State-by- state surveys indicate a narrow lead for the Democratic candidate, while websites that take bets on the presidential victor show her odds of winning the White House are generally about 80 percent.
     The S&P 500 is recovering from its lowest level since June, and on Tuesday touched its average prices during the past 50 and 100 days, after arresting a nine-day slide at its 200-day moving average. The benchmark has wandered in a roughly 100-point band since reaching a record in August as investors assessed the political landscape, corporate profits, economic data and the likelihood for higher interest rates. The index closed today just 2.3 percent from its all-time high.
     “It’s hard to really make too much of today’s move,” said Yousef Abbasi, a global market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC. “We’ve lost a little bit of steam as energy has headed into the red, but people are still in the wait-and-see mode. We met resistance right at the 50-day and 100-day moving average, so technicals might be in play.”
     Speculation on Clinton’s chances also helped bolster wagers on a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next month. Data compiled by Bloomberg based on fed funds futures trading show an 86 percent probability of higher borrowing costs by year end, up from 76 percent on Friday.
     “Put your seat belts on because this is going to be a bumpy ride,” said Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $172 billion. “As the polls close later today, investors will be moving in a chaotic fashion to get ahead of the information flow.”
     Amid the political drama, earnings season is winding down, with only a handful of S&P 500 members releasing Tuesday. Analysts now predict profit growth of 2.5 percent in the July- September period for the benchmark’s constituents, reversing forecasts for a 1.6 percent decline at the start of the month. Retailers Macy’s Inc., Kohl’s Corp. and Nordstrom Inc. are due to report later this week.
     Among shares moving Tuesday on earnings news:
* Priceline Group Inc. added 6.6 percent, rising to a record after its earnings, excluding a writedown, exceeded estimates.
* CVS Health Corp. marked the worst drop in seven years after cutting its full-year adjusted earnings range.
* Hertz Global Holdings Inc. shares plummeted 23 percent, the most since 2008, after reporting a quarterly profit that badly trailed estimates and cut its annual earnings forecast.
* Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. tumbled 22 percent as new management cut the company’s profit forecast to well below predictions and suggested there may be more bad news on the way.
* Kindred Healthcare Inc. dropped to a 13-year low after also reducing its earnings outlook and saying it’s exiting the skilled nursing facility business.
     Elsewhere in today’s trading, 10 of the S&P 500’s 11 main industries rose, with utilities, phone and industrial companies increasing more than 0.5 percent. Energy producers were little changed as crude oil slipped. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. rallied 7.1 percent as copper futures touched a one-year high on speculation supply will tighten amid signs of stabilizing demand in China.
     Mondelez International Inc. and Campbell Soup Co. jumped at least 3.2 percent after a report said Brazil’s 3G Capital is seeking up to $10 billion for a new fund aimed at an acquisition in the consumer group. Kellogg Co. and General Mills Inc. added more than 2.6 percent.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

We are always comparing what we are with what we should be.
This measuring ourselves all the time against something or someone
is one of the primary causes of conflict.  Now why is there any comparison at all?
If you do not compare yourself with another
you will be what you really are.
Krishnamurti

As ever,

Carolann

To love and win is the best thing.  To love and lose,
the next best.
                       -William Thackeray, 1811-1863

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 
Tel: 778.430.5808
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