November 4, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
November 4, 1922: British archaeologist Howard Carter discovers the tomb of the Egyptian pharaoh Tutankhamen, the best preserved pharaonic tomb ever found in the Valley of the Kings.
1946: UNESCO  founded.
November 4, 1960: Jane Goodall observes a chimp making tools.
November 4, 1979: The Iranian hostage crisis began as militants stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. Go to article »

Iranian artist’s paintings of women take on a new sense of urgency.  These symbol-laden paintings are charged with emotion and allude to issues that have recently sparked protests across Iran.

Most UFOs are ‘Chinese surveillance’ drones and ‘airborne clutter,’ Pentagon officials reveal:  Intelligence agencies in the U.S. have spent the last few years analyzing footage of hundreds of recent UFO encounters, and they want the American people to know: It’s still not aliens.  According to several U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) officials who spoke anonymously to The New York Times last week, many recent sightings of UFOs — or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs), as the government prefers to call them — are likely just observations of foreign surveillance operations or airborne clutter, such as weather balloons.  Full Story: Live Science (11/3)

Ghostly neutrino particles are blasting out of a nearby galaxy, and scientists aren’t sure why:  A nearby spiral galaxy is pumping out ghostly neutrinos — mysterious particles that barely interact with the matter around them, scientists have found.  The elusive particles are coming from a hotspot of neutrino production in the heart of the spiral galaxy Messier 77, which is anchored by a black hole. Full Story: Live Science (11/3)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York, US
A heart is created by 500 drones over the skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center, as seen from New Jersey, during an advertising promotion for the 10th anniversary of the video game Candy Crush Saga
Photograph: Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

Alpaquera
At an altitude of more than 5,000 metres (17,000 feet) in the Andes of southern Peru, Alina Surquislla Gomez, a third-generation alpaquera, cradles a baby alpaca on her way to the pastures where her family’s herd of 300 graze in summer. Shrinking glaciers and increased drought have forced the herders – who are mostly women – to search for new grazing grounds over difficult terrain. Peru’s alpacas, prized for their wool, are a major source of income and important to the local culture.
Photograph: Alessandro Cinque
Belgium
The marches of Entre-Sambre-et-Meuse are on the Unesco list of intangible cultural heritage. They take place primarily in the countryside, from the village centre to the Poucet chapel. The marchers dress in a traditional costume comprised of a blue smock, white pants and a red scarf.
Photograph: Alain Schroeder
Market Closes for November 4^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📉 On this day in 1929, in an attempt to calm panicking investors, the New York Stock Exchange said that it would be open for trading only three hours a day that week. The investing public took no comfort, trading an astounding 6 million shares in just 180 minutes—more than twice the level of a normal full day’s trading just weeks earlier.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.1% at 19,449.81 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.5% on Oct. 21 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 166 of 236 shares rose, while 65 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%. Yamana Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 18.1%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.4%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index declined 8.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.4% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.8% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 12.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.07t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 20.74% compared with 22.35% in the previous session and the average of 22.53% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 121.4379| 5.9| 49/2
Financials | 108.6205| 1.8| 28/1
Energy | 5.9731| 0.2| 21/16
Communication Services | 5.8052| 0.6| 3/3
Real Estate | 3.9256| 0.8| 17/3
Utilities | 3.6214| 0.4| 10/6
Consumer Staples | 2.5941| 0.3| 7/4
Consumer Discretionary | 2.3834| 0.3| 11/3
Industrials | 2.0469| 0.1| 16/11
Health Care | 0.0130| 0.0| 3/4
Information Technology | -47.8462| -4.5| 1/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 18.1500| 1.5| -52.0| -5.2
TD Bank | 14.9300| 1.4| -38.3| -9.3
First Quantum Minerals | 14.5400| 14.8| 14.9| -3.2
Waste Connections | -11.0300| -3.3| 30.7| 6.7
Constellation Software | -13.9700| -5.3| 66.0| -21.8
Shopify | -24.9100| -6.6| 28.0| -75.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose, with traders weighing mixed jobs figures and awaiting next week’s inflation data for more clues on when the Federal Reserve would be able slow down its pace of rate hikes.
The S&P 500 halted a four-day slide.
The dollar slumped the most since March 2020.
Two-year US yields, which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves, reversed course and came down.
Fed fund futures are leaning toward pricing a 50-basis-point hike in December, with the peak around 5.1% next year.
Officials this week raised rates by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time, lifting their benchmark to a target range of 3.75% to 4%.
Wall Street’s fear gauge is well below the panic levels seen during the pandemic or the 2008 crisis, but volatility is very much a feature of 2022.
The S&P 500 has already seen five monthly moves this year in excess of 7%, either to the upside or downside.
Beyond the tumult of the 2008 global financial crisis, one must go back to 1933 — the days of the Great Depression — to see more swings of such magnitude in a single year.
“This week is a reminder that the intense volatility and emotional trading experience through much of the year is likely to continue,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “Bottoming processes are rarely clean, and even if bulls are gaining control, pockets of weakness are inevitable.”
Markets will watch the latest US inflation reading on Thursday after the core consumer price index rose more than forecast to a 40-year high in September.
Even if prices begin to moderate, the CPI is far above the Fed’s comfort zone.

Reaction to Jobs:
Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research:
“This report does nothing to change the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ narrative. We probably won’t see really weak jobs numbers until the US economy is already in a relatively deep recession.”
Jason Pride at Glenmede: “This jobs report likely does not push the Fed off its path for a 50-75 bp rate hike in December. However, the next big economic report that could move the needle for the Fed is next week’s CPI report.”
Peter Essele at Commonwealth Financial Network: “If labor growth remains strong and earnings growth slows, it’ll be a win-win for investors since there will be less pressure on the Fed to raise rates. The result could be a soft landing in the economy as opposed to a hard one.”
Mike Loewengart at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office: “While the number may be disappointing for investors hoping for a dovish Fed sooner rather than later, keep in mind it was the lowest reading in nearly two years, so there could be signs that the market is slowing.”
Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management: “The most notable signal from today’s employment data is not that the data came in better than expected, but rather that some subtle signs of the economy slowing are starting to show up. Investors are looking for any signs that the Fed will pull back the reigns on policy tightening.”
Investors are fleeing to the safety of cash funds as the Fed remains firmly hawkish, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
The asset class had inflows of $62.1 billion in the week through Nov. 2, according to a note from the bank citing EPFR Global data. That’s contributed to $194 billion of inflows into cash from the start of October — the fastest start to a quarter since 2020.
In corporate news, US-listed Chinese stocks jumped amid fresh optimism over an easing of Covid restrictions. DoorDash Inc. reported revenue that beat estimates, a sign that customers are still ordering pricey takeout despite a squeeze from higher inflation.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.7%
* The euro rose 2.2% to $0.9960
* The British pound rose 1.9% to $1.1373
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 146.70 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $21,087.44
* Ether rose 6.8% to $1,645.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.1% to $92.64 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 3.3% to $1,684.10 an ounce
* Gold futures rose 3.2% to $1,683.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee, Vildana Hajric and Cecile Gutscher

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder. –Arnold Toynbee, 1889-1975.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com