Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

November 3, 1380: Charles VI is crowned in Reim’s Cathedral, France.
November 3, 1903: Panama declares independence from Columbia, opening the path to the Panama Canal and reshaping global trade routes.
November 3, 2010: The Federal Reserve announced a plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds over the next eight months in an attempt to boost lending and stimulate economy.   Go to article

Stephen Austin, founder of Texas, b. 1793.
William Cullen Bryant, poet, b. 1794.
Roseanne Barr, comedian, b. 1952.

The U.S. government is divesting from mRNA vaccines, but will other uses of the technology be spared? In a time of uncertainty, scientists worry that revolutionary treatments for cancer, immune dysfunction and genetic disease may be left on the lab bench.

A massive Roman cremation cemetery in France is shedding light on diverse burial practices. Read More.

The interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS has a thick irradiated crust that no longer resembles its home star system, simulations and James Webb Space Telescope observations have found. Read More.

Chimpanzees use a variation of the “scientific method” — discarding prior beliefs if convincing new evidence comes along to change their minds, research shows. Read More.

Researchers from Peking University say their resistive random-access memory chip may be capable of speeds 1,000 faster than the Nvidia H100 and AMD Vega 20 GPUs. Read More.

New York City Marathon winners
See who won Sunday’s big races in the Big Apple.

Yamamoto etches himself into World Series lore
Los Angeles Dodgers’ star Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a contract ahead of the 2024 season worth $325 million over 12 years. Over the weekend, he proved to be priceless.

Photographing America’s abandoned homes
Photographer Bryan Sansivero documented abandoned homes for a decade. The images come together in his new book, “America the Abandoned.”

How to ‘lock in’ and achieve health goals by the end of the year
Instead of waiting to make a New Year’s resolution, a social media trend called the “Great Lock In” encourages people to pursue goals now before the end of 2025.

Number of the day:
6.3: That’s the magnitude of an earthquake that struck Afghanistan earlier today, killing more than a dozen people and leaving the iconic Blue Mosque surrounded by rubble.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Chiang Rai, Thailand
A tourist poses for photographs at the Wat Rong Khun Buddhist temple, popularly known as the White Temple
Photograph: Manan Vatsyayana/AFP/Getty Images

Sydney, Australia
People walk past the installation Error during the annual Vivid Sydney festival
Photograph: Sitthixay Ditthavong/AAP

Koluchin Island, Russia
A polar bear rests on steps at an abandoned research station on Koluchin Island
Photograph: Vadim Makhorov/AP
Market Closes for November 03^rd, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1948, the day after Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey in the U.S. presidential election, the Dow slumped by 4% on the belief that Truman would be too soft on communism. By Nov. 10 the Dow had lost 9.4%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 30,275.06 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.9%.
Magna International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 4.5%.
Today, 88 of 213 shares rose, while 120 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Oct. 15, 2025 and 36.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is unchanged in the past 5 days and fell 0.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.82t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 12.41% compared with 12.54% in the previous session and the average of 10.59% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 57.6458| 0.6| 17/6
Consumer Discretionary | 9.0039| 0.9| 7/2
Materials | 7.7353| 0.2| 19/31
Utilities | 2.4740| 0.2| 6/8
Health Care | -0.3523| -0.4| 1/3
Communication Services | -3.1964| -0.5| 1/3
Real Estate | -3.5814| -0.7| 1/16
Consumer Staples | -8.8286| -0.9| 4/7
Energy | -12.5454| -0.3| 19/19
Industrials | -16.7555| -0.5| 10/19
Information Technology | -17.2896| -0.5| 3/6
RBC | 17.2100| 0.9| -25.5| 19.6
Manulife Financial | 12.2400| 2.3| 128.3| 5.1
CIBC | 10.6000| 1.4| -29.4| 29.6
Couche-Tard | -8.9540| -2.3| 47.7| -12.7
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | -10.0300| -1.6| 57.4| -4.5
Constellation |Software | -14.8000| -2.9| 19.3| -19.3
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a third-straight session on Monday, posting a modest gain as market watchers, while awaiting a fiscal update from the Canadian federal government tomorrow that is expected to highlight a big budget deficit, also digested a wide range of trade related news items that could help determine the outlook for the domestic economy.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 14.32 points to 30,275.06.
Sectors were mixed.
Base Metals led decliners, down near 1.7%, with no other sector down as much as 1%, while no sector rose more than 0.6%.
On the long-awaited federal budget, The Canadian Press noted Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said while there will be “no surprises” when he tables it Tuesday afternoon, he promises it will offer “generational investments.”
The report noted the government said this budget, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first, is “built around boosting investment in Canada and shifting trade away from an increasingly protectionist U.S. under President Donald Trump.”
It also noted Carney’s minority government will need the support or abstention of some opposition MPs to pass the budget bill and avoid an early election.
The government is three votes shy of being able to pass the budget on its own.
The Conservatives, Bloc Quebecois and NDP have stated publicly what they want to see in the budget in exchange for their support.
CBC News noted Prime Minister Mark Carney says he’s ‘100%’ confident in his first budget and is prepared to defend it in an election if it doesn’t pass.
Meanwhile, a CTV News report noted interim parliamentary budget officer Jason Jacques in an interview with CTV Question Period in late September, said the federal deficit was expected to rise to $68.5 billion this year, up from $51.7 billion last year.
It noted the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy (IFSD) predicts that to be higher, between $75 and $90 billion.
Sahir Khan, a former assistant parliamentary budget officer, who’s also vice-president of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, told CTV News Channel Sunday says he’ll be watching to see whether the Liberal government prioritizes capital investment, including infrastructure, housing and other long-term projects, over short-term spending.
In trade specific news, BMO Capital Markets noted the federal government announced the first round of critical minerals projects set to benefit from the G7 Critical Minerals Production Alliance.
Six companies received federal support, spanning graphite, rare earths, and scandium.
The first round of support included mostly offtake agreements and some non-binding letters of intent.
BMO said it remains optimistic the next round of investments, expected in March, will include more project financing support for advanced critical mineral developers.
It believes that the next round of federal support announcements could target Canadian lithium projects.
Within its coverage, BMO flags the PMET Resources’ (PMET.TO) Shaakichiuwaanaan project in Quebec and Frontier Lithium’s (FL.V) PAK project in Ontario as potential beneficiaries due to their scale and potential to represent cornerstone assets in each province.
Meanwhile, a report on the BNN Bloomberg website noted Ontario Premier Doug Ford says Prime Minister Mark Carney asked him several times to pull an anti-tariff ad that angered U.S. President Donald Trump, though he has “a different recollection” from the prime minister of the conversation they had before the ad ran.
“He called me from Asia a couple of times and said, ‘pull the ad’ and I said I wasn’t going to do it until we paused the ad on Monday. And that’s exactly what we did,” Ford said.
The report noted the ad featured a clip of former U.S. president Ronald Reagan talking about the economic drawbacks of tariffs.
Trump cut off trade talks with Canada in response and threatened to add an extra 10% tariff on Canadian goods.
It also noted that several days after Ford said Carney saw the ad before it ran, the prime minister admitted that he had, telling reporters at a press conference in South Korea over the weekend that he told Ford he didn’t think the province should run the ad.
He also said he’d apologized to Trump over the ad.
With a similar theme, CBC News noted that following a forestry summit with federal Minister responsible for Canada-U.S. Trade, Dominic LeBlanc, British Columbia Premier David Eby said his province will not run anti-tariff ads on its own, as it had planned.
He said when the time comes to speak to Americans, it will be in partnership with the federal government.
In other trade related news, Industry Minister Melanie Joly says the federal government is launching a dispute resolution process against Stellantis for moving planned vehicle production from its Brampton, Ont. plant out of the country, The Canadian Press reported.
It noted Joly told a parliamentary committee this morning the formal, 30-day process is aimed at recovering Canadian taxpayer money and returning production to the Brampton facility.
Joly said the process is underpinned by government contracts with the carmaker and will be initiated by the end of the business day. She met with autoworkers in Brampton last week and added the company must be held accountable for breaking its promises.
Meanwhile, Canada and Pakistan have agreed to facilitate the export of Canadian canola to the South Asian nation, the countries said in a joint statement on Monday, as reported by Reuters. It noted Canada has been looking to open new markets for the commodity after China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, a year after Canada said it would levy a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
Of commodities, gold prices were up on Monday, pushing back above US$4,000 despite a higher dollar, even as they have continued to trade in a tight range since Oct. 20’s record high of US$4,359.40.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$25.50 to US$4,022.00 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a minor gain as OPEC+ on the weekend said it will again boost monthly production by 137,000 barrels per day on Dec. 1, while announcing it will pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for December delivery closed up $0.07 to settle at $61.05 per barrel, while January Brent oil was last seen up $0.10 to $64.87.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The start of what’s known as the best month of the year for stocks saw tech rallying as Amazon.com Inc.’s $38 billion deal with OpenAI added fuel to the artificial- intelligence trade.
Bond yields rose.
Crypto sank.
A renewed advance in mega caps drove a gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” up 1.2%.
The ChatGPT maker will pay Amazon Web Services for access to hundreds of thousands of Nvidia Corp. graphics processing units as part of a seven-year deal.
Shares of the online retail giant jumped 4%.
Despite the AI optimism, over 300 firms in the S&P 500 actually retreated.
Monday’s deal saw another industry giant join the ranks of those building or retrofitting data centers to back OpenAI.
The animal spirits surrounding the revolutionary technology confronted calls for broader-market consolidation after a relentless surge since April’s meltdown.
Traders also kept an eye on the few economic reports slated for this week.
US factory activity shrank in October for an eighth straight month while inflationary pressures continued to ease.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned he’s more concerned about inflation than jobs.
His San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly said officials should “keep an open mind” about the possibility a December cut.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted policy remains restrictive.
“Concerns over high valuations persist, and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook appears murkier,” said Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Despite the strong gains in equity markets this year, we continue to believe that this bull market has room to run.”
The S&P 500 closed around 6,850. Its equal-weighted version – which gives Dollar Tree Inc. as much clout as Apple Inc. – slid.
In late hours, Palantir Technologies Inc. gave a bullish outlook, citing “accelerating and otherworldly” growth for its AI and data analytics products.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 4.10%.
Bitcoin sank about 3%.
The dollar wavered.
Investors’ seemingly unshakeable faith that equities can only go higher has one of Wall Street’s biggest optimists growing concerned that all the good vibes are waving a contrarian red flag.
Bulls have history on their side as November is historically the best month for returns over the past three decades.
But the question is whether those year-end gains have already been priced into the market following one of the S&P 500’s best stretches since the 1950s.
“There are too many bulls,” says Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research.
“Just one unexpected event could knock stocks down from their highs amid poor market breadth, but that may be tough to do, given that traders are usually optimistic around the holidays.”
“Near-term volatility remains likely as record bullishness increases risks to stocks from less than perfect news,” said Julian Emanuel at Evercore.
With the Fed forcing investors to rethink a December rate cut, any notable deterioration in sentiment could lead to a market dip, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“But given the S&P 500’s six-month and the Nasdaq’s seven- month win streaks, sidelined investors will likely welcome a pullback,” he added.
“As the adage goes, don’t fight the tape, and we agree,” said LPL Financial strategists including Adam Turnquist and Jeff Buchbinder.
“However, another popular adage is that bull markets are not linear, although it certainly seems that way since April.”
When an index is moving higher, and market breadth is not keeping up, it provides a sign of “emerging cracks” in the market’s foundation, they noted.
“If this rally does take a breather, seasonal strength could help limit the depth and duration of the drawdown,” they said.
“However, given the strength over the previous six months, it is likely some gains have been pulled forward.”
“Momentum remains positive, but the concentration of returns is very high,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“Investors overweight in AI are having a much better year.”
History reassures investors that the market’s previously impressive pace should not detract from its typical end-of-year run, said Sam Stovall at CFRA.
“Despite a possible short and shallow digestion of recent gains, we continue to see share prices advancing through year- end on an improvement in earnings growth expectations, a further lifting of trade barriers, an end to the government shutdown, and another rate cut in December,” he said.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has rallied 10% or more year-to- date through October 40 times, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Whenever that happened prior to 2025, November has seen an average gain of 2.6%, they noted.
“The old market axiom that ‘gains beget gains’ applies to this analysis, as years where the market is up big through October have typically seen better performance in November and December,” the strategists added.
“An upbeat earnings season has helped mitigate the missing macro perspective,” said Saira Malik at Nuveen.
“Valuations appear stretched but supported by improving earnings momentum and the prospect of lower costs of capital thanks to Fed easing.”
US earnings for the third quarter have surpassed estimates at one of the highest rates on record so far, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
“In our 25-year data history, this frequency of earnings surprises has been surpassed only during the COVID reopening period in 2020-2021,” the team led by David Kostin wrote.
The reporting season remains strong and it’s providing a solid foundation for US equities, but sentiment is a notch below the last reporting season, said RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“Macro commentary in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls remained mixed and varied by sector, with the strongest tone coming out of tech and health care and the weakest tone coming from consumer,” they noted.
Results from US technology giants showed that the world’s biggest corporations are still pouring billions into AI infrastructure, cheering investors and bolstering the case for betting on the sector.
“Last week’s Magnificent Seven earnings were very impressive across the board, and we believe their updates and outlooks reinforce our continued conviction in the durability of the secular drivers across technology and AI,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
Outside of near-term overbought conditions across technology and the broader market, which could spark a temporary pullback at some point before year-end, fundamental conditions among the market’s most owned stocks appear very strong and well-positioned heading into 2026, he noted.
“Quite clearly, in my mind, the path of least resistance continues to lead to the upside for equities into year-end, with earnings growth remaining very impressive indeed, coupled with the resilient underlying nature of the US economy, looser monetary backdrop, and strong seasonal tailwinds too,” said Michael Brown at Pepperstone.
This earnings season is shaping up as one of the strongest in years — just not in stock reactions.
With most companies having now reported, profits are up nearly 13% from a year ago — almost double the pre-season forecast, according to Christopher Cain and Wendy Soong at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Yet upside surprises are drawing smaller pops, while misses are being punished twice as hard as usual.
“It’s a market that rewards strength on paper, but demands perfection in practice,” the BI strategists said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. has signed a roughly $9.7 billion deal to buy artificial intelligence computing capacity from IREN Ltd., becoming the Australian company’s largest customer.
** Microsoft is planning to spend more than $7.9 billion on data centers, cloud computing and employees in the United Arab Emirates over the next four years, capitalizing on a US government clearance to ship artificial intelligence chips to the Gulf nation.
* Nvidia Corp. can add trillions more to its valuation after making history as the first company to ever breach a $5 trillion market capitalization, according to at least one analyst.
** Loop Capital Markets raised its price target to a Street-high view of $350, up from $250.
* Alphabet Inc. is selling $17.5 billion of bonds in the US, after issuing €6.5 billion ($7.48 billion) of notes in Europe, adding to a wave of borrowing from technology companies as they invest aggressively in artificial intelligence.
* Cisco Systems Inc. unveiled a new all-in-one product that’s meant to help retail stores, health care facilities and factories use artificial intelligence with a single rack of equipment, part of the company’s push to take a bigger role in AI.
* Walt Disney Co. asked YouTube TV to restore the broadcast of its ABC network for Election Day, as a fight over distribution fees drags on.
* Pfizer Inc. accused Novo Nordisk A/S of trying to stifle competition in the weight-loss market by attempting to acquire obesity startup Metsera Inc., the second lawsuit Pfizer has filed in four days as it tries to retain its grip on a deal Novo upended last week.
* Kimberly-Clark Corp. agreed to buy Kenvue Inc. for roughly $40 billion, snapping up the embattled Tylenol maker’s storied brands in a gamble that would vault the Kleenex producer into consumer health’s top tier.
* Eaton Corp. agreed to buy liquid cooling specialist Boyd Thermal for $9.5 billion to capitalize on heavy demand related to artificial intelligence data centers.
* SM Energy Co. agreed to buy rival Civitas Resources Inc. in the biggest US shale deal of the year, the latest sign of consolidation in the Permian Basin.
* Coeur Mining Inc. agreed to acquire New Gold Inc. for about $7 billion in an all-stock deal that consolidates two midsize North American gold producers as surging bullion prices have reignited investor interest in the sector.
* Airbus SE delivered 78 aircraft in October, according to people familiar with the matter, as the plane maker inches towards an ambitious annual target that it said remains within reach even as component shortages persist.
* BBVA SA raised Additional Tier 1 capital for the first time since its lost pursuit for country peer Banco Sabadell SA was voted down by shareholders last month.
* UBS Group AG is selling its first bonds since a court decision raised questions about the Swiss lender’s possible exposure to previously canceled AT1 debt.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc expects to exceed its passenger growth target for the full year as the airline receives aircraft early from Boeing Co. and demand for travel remains strong.
* BP Plc agreed to divest stakes in US shale assets to Sixth Street for $1.5 billion as it seeks to shore up its balance sheet and win back investor confidence.
* UniQure NV sank after the drug developer told US regulators deemed the clinical data for its experimental gene-therapy for Huntington’s disease as insufficient.
* Xanadu Quantum Technologies Inc. said it will go public through a merger with Crane Harbor Acquisition Corp., a US special-purpose acquisition company, in a deal that values the combined business at about $3.6 billion.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
A strong third-quarter earnings season and a narrowing tape can coexist — but the mix argues for caution as the rally grows more fragile.
When leadership is this concentrated and sentiment this crowded, even a small wobble in the mega-cap growth story or an unexpected macro headwind can trigger outsized moves lower.
-Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.3%
* Amazon rose 4%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1518
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3138
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 154.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.9% to $106,808.26
* Ether fell 6.6% to $3,605.71
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.10%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.43%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.59%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,009.81 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

I am not what happened to me, I am what I choose to become. –Carl Jung, 1875-1961.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com