November 26, 2014 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Yesterday, a friend brought me a book of poems by Mary Oliver.  This is from the book, Blue Horses:

TO BE HUMAN IS TO SING YOUR OWN SONG

Everything that I can think of  that my parents
thought or did I don’t think and I don’t do.
I opened windows, they shut them.  I pulled
open the curtains, they shut them.  If you
get my drift.  Of course there were some
similarities – they wanted to be happy and
they weren’t.  I wanted to be Shelley and I
wasn’t.  I don’t mean I didn’t have to avoid
imitation, the gloom was pretty heavy.  But
then, for me, there was the forest, where
they didn’t exist.  And the fields.  Where I
learned about birds and other sweet tidbits
of existence.  The song sparrow, for example.

In the song sparrow’s nest the nestlings,
those who would sing eventually, must listen
carefully to the father bird as he sings
and make their own song in imitation of his.
I don’t know if any other bird does this (in
nature’s way has to do this).  But I know a
child doesn’t have to.  Doesn’t have to.
Doesn’t have to.  And I didn’t.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

103-year-old Robert Marchand (front left) cycles in the rain with a small group of riders to celebrate his birthday as he makes his way along the Robert Marchand Pass, a 10-kilometer ride in the Ardeche mountains, near Saint-Felicien, France. Robert Pratta/Reuters

US President Barack Obama and his daughters, Sasha (c.), and Malia (r.), participate in the annual turkey pardoning ceremony marking the 67th presentation of the National Thanksgiving Turkey while in the White House in Washington. Larry Downing/Reuters

Market Closes for November 26^th, 2014    

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell for the second time in three days, as raw-materials and energy producers slumped with crude closing at a four-year low amid conflicting signals from OPEC nations on output reductions.

     Bankers Petroleum Ltd. and Trilogy Energy Corp. lost at least 5.5 percent to pace declines among oil stocks. New Gold Inc. and Argonaut Gold Inc. dropped more than 4.2 percent as raw-materials producers retreated from a seven-week high.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 35.24 points, or 0.2 percent, to 15,038.41 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The index is up 10 percent this year, the seventh-best performer among developed markets in the world.

     Raw-materials and energy producers, which account for about a third of the benchmark Canadian equity gauge, were the only two groups among 10 main industries in the index that fell today, on trading 26 percent below the 30-day average.

     Bankers Petroleum sank 5.5 percent to C$4.09 and Trilogy Energy fell 7.4 percent to C$12.67 as 59 of 69 members of the S&P/TSX Energy Index declined. Energy shares have slumped 2 percent in November, headed for a third straight month of declines, the longest losing streak since September 2011.

     West Texas Intermediate and Brent crudes declined, tumbling to four-year lows, as OPEC meets tomorrow to determine output levels. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, didn’t agree with Russia, Venezuela and Mexico to curb output at a meeting yesterday in Vienna.

     New Gold lost 4.2 percent to C$5.03 and Argonaut Gold slumped 8.2 percent to C$2.13. The S&P/TSX Materials Index sank 1.6 percent. Gold was little changed at $1,197.50 an ounce in New York.

US

By Joseph Ciolli

     Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, with benchmark indexes closing at all-time highs, amid optimism the economy is showing sufficient strength to weather a slowdown overseas.

     Phone companies led gains, while technology stocks rose as Hewlett-Packard Co. advanced to the highest level since May 2011 even after missing analyst earnings estimates. Energy producers decreased as Seadrill Ltd. suspended dividends amid the lowest oil prices in more than four years.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent to 2,072.83 at 4 p.m. in New York, extending gains in the final 15 minutes of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 12.81 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,827.75. Both gauges ended at records. The Nasdaq 100 Index climbed 0.7 percent to extend a more than 14-year high. About 4.9 billion listed shares changed hands in the U.S., 26 percent lower than the three-month daily average. U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving holiday.

     “Economic numbers in general have been good, and that optimism is following through,” Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion, said in a phone interview. “It could be a good retail season, and low gas prices are making a difference.”

     Consumer confidence climbed to a more than seven-year high in November as Americans’ views of their financial well-being improved heading into the holiday shopping season. A separate report showed consumer spending climbed in October at the same pace as incomes, showing households are staying within their means as the holiday-shopping season begins.                          

     Orders for U.S. business equipment such as machinery and electrical gear unexpectedly declined in October. Other data showed jobless claims increased by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the highest since early September, from 292,000 in the prior period. New homes in the U.S. sold at a slower pace than forecast last month.

     A report yesterday showed U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 3.9 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, more than initially estimated.

     The S&P 500 has advanced each December for the past six years. It is up 11 percent from its six-month low in October, as data signaled the U.S. economy is improving and central banks in Europe, Japan and China added more stimulus measures.                          

     The rally in American equities has pushed stock valuations to near the highest levels since 2009. The S&P 500 trades at 17.3 times the projected earnings of its members, up from a multiple as low as 15.5 last month. Profit for S&P 500 companies may rise 7.6 percent this year, estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

     Calm has returned to equity markets. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of options prices known as the VIX, has dropped 14 percent in the past five days to a two-month low. The benchmark gauge of price swings surged to a more than two-year high on Oct. 15.

     Eight out of 10 main industries in the S&P 500 increased today, with phone and technology companies posting the largest gains. Energy shares slumped the most, dropping 1.1 percent ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting.

     Chipmakers surged, with Analog Devices Inc. climbing 5.5 percent after profit and sales for the fourth quarter exceeded projections. The company’s adjusted gross margin, a measure of profitability, was also wider than analysts had predicted.                       

     Phone companies in the benchmark gauge gained the most since July as CenturyLink Inc. rose 2.2 percent to lead gains.  AT&T Inc. rose for a second straight day after falling 3.3 percent since Nov. 14.

     Technology companies in the S&P 500 climbed 0.9 percent.  Hewlett-Packard Co. added 4.1 percent even after the computer maker reported fourth-quarter sales that missed estimates. The company’s margins may benefit from a restructuring plan that would spin off its personal-computer and printer operations into a stand-alone entity, Brian Alexander, an analyst for Raymond James, wrote in a client note today.

     Mylan Inc. surged more than 4 percent. A Jefferies Group LLC analyst said the company is viewed as the most likely takeover target for Pfizer Inc.

     Deere & Co. pared its drop to 0.9 percent after losing as much as 3.9 percent. The world’s largest maker of farm equipment forecast 2015 profit that trailed estimates as farmers buy fewer high-horsepower tractors and combines after crop prices fell. Caterpillar Inc. slumped 0.4 percent.

     Seadrill Ltd. fell 23 percent, the most in six years, after the offshore driller controlled by billionaire John Fredriksen suspended dividends as the slump in oil prices weakens demand for rigs.

     Energy companies declined the most out of the 10 main S&P 500 industries as Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc., Transocean Ltd. and Noble Corp. declined more than 5 percent. Crude oil dropped 0.5 percent to $73.69 a barrel in New York, the lowest since September 2010.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

Amidst this chaos there is harmony, throughout these discordant sounds there is a note of concord;

and he who is prepared to listen to it will catch the tone.

Swami Vivekananda

As ever,

Carolann

The pen is the tongue of the mind.

 -Miguel de Cervantes, 1547-1616

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7