November 22, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On Nov. 22, 1963, President John F. Kennedy was assassinated while riding in a motorcade in Dallas. Suspected gunman Lee Harvey Oswald was arrested. Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson was sworn in as the 36th president of the United States.  Go to article »

1859: On the Origin of Species is published by Charles Darwin.
1995: Toy Story is released as the first feature-length film created completely using computer- generated imagery.

Ancient Egyptian mummification was never intended to preserve bodies, new exhibit reveals: It’s long been believed that ancient Egyptians used mummification as a way to preserve a body after death.  However, an upcoming museum exhibition indicates that was never the case, and instead the elaborate burial technique was actually a way to guide the deceased toward divinity.  Full Story: Live Science (11/22)

New interactive map of the universe is a rainbow-colored slice of cosmic pie: Astronomers have created a new map of the universe that looks remarkably like a rainbow-colored slice of cosmic pie.
The interactive image, which has been named The Map of the Observable Universe, was released online Nov. 17 and is made of real-color specks of light emitted by more than 200,000 galaxies and quasars — including the Milky Way, which sits at the tip of the slice. However, in reality, the wedge-shaped map only offers a small serving of the observable universe, measuring 90 degrees across and 10 degrees deep from our viewpoint of the sky from Earth.
Full Story: Live Science (11/22)

At 10:11 p.m., the time and date will form a palindrome. (h/t Mark Gilbert)

New pristine meteorite just dropped.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kamchatka, Russia
The Shiveluch volcano erupts after spewing volcanic ash and smoke
Photograph: Institute Of Volcanology And Seismology/Reuters

Frankfurt, Germany
Lights illuminate the traditional Christmas market
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Hula Valley, Israel
Cranes rest in the Agamon Hula lake area on their seasonal migration route from Europe to Africa
Photograph: Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 22nd, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1937, the Law Committee of the New York Stock Exchange delivered a harshly-worded letter to William O. Douglas, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, declaring that the NYSE’s leaders would refuse to appoint an independent president or even to apologize for claiming that the SEC has contributed to the stock-market crash. In response, Douglas growled, “All right, then, we’ll take the Exchange over.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.2% at 20,220.01 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 3.3% on Nov. 10 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.9%.
Eldorado Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.8%.
Today, 194 of 236 shares rose, while 37 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 4.7%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This month, the index rose 4.1%
* The index declined 5.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 13.1% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 7.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 12.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.18t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 17.40% compared with 17.24% in the previous session and the average of 21.20% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 80.6489| 3.5| 50/1
Energy | 77.6697| 2.1| 36/1
Financials | 55.0171| 0.9| 25/4
Industrials | 13.9023| 0.5| 18/9
Utilities | 4.5556| 0.5| 12/4
Information Technology | 4.4410| 0.4| 8/4
Real Estate | 4.3199| 0.9| 17/4
Consumer Staples | 3.3922| 0.4| 9/2
Consumer Discretionary | 0.3509| 0.0| 12/2
Communication Services | -0.6384| -0.1| 4/2
Health Care | -0.7800| -0.9| 3/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | 18.6300| 4.9| -10.1| 13.9
RBC | 18.0500| 1.4| -3.1| 0.4
TD Bank | 12.1900| 1.1| -9.3| -6.4
Shopify | -1.3070| -0.3| -39.9| -72.9
Couche-Tard | -2.2760| -0.7| 28.0| 16.0
Restaurant Brands | -2.2970| -1.2| -16.7| 18.1
US
By Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rose as investors adjusted their expectations in response to Federal Reserve officials indicating that they’ll continue to raise interest rates but are open to slowing their tempo.
The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since Sept. 12.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed more than 1%. Upbeat earnings from a handful of retailers including Best Buy Co. and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. boosted sentiment.
Treasuries rallied, with the benchmark 10-year yield around 3.76%.
Oil rose amid an uncertain supply outlook alongside an European Union proposal to soften Russian crude sanctions.
The dollar snapped a three-day rally.
In recent days, Fed officials have broadly maintained their steadfast stance to fight inflation.
Yet San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also said that officials need to be mindful of the lags in the transmission of policy changes, while her Cleveland counterpart Loretta Mester said she’s open to moderating the size of rate hikes.
On Tuesday, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey came in slightly below expectations, with data confirming the peak inflation narrative.
“We think the Fed leadership wants to get off the 75-basis-point-a-meeting hamster wheel even though it is finding it hard to do so while maintaining control of financial conditions,” Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha wrote in a note. “We think the Fed is still heading for a ‘hawkish slowing.’ And, for us at least, the slowing part is what matters.”
Despite hints of moderation, the Fed is likely to raise its estimate of the terminal rate as early as December, in part because inflation may prove sticky, said Sonia Meskin, head of US macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management.
“I don’t know if I would read too much into the sort of daily repricing from the macro perspective at this stage, but I would be interested to see the labor market data for November and then any indication of whether this information weakening is sustained or not,” Meskin said by phone. “I think those would really be more indicative of the future of the policy trajectory.”
Thanksgiving week in the US also tends to carry a “historically bullish tone” for stocks, Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said in a note.
The week has started with a dip on Monday and then improves around the Thursday holiday about 68% of the time since 1950, he said.
The bond market, meanwhile, isn’t pushing the idea that rates are going to go up anymore, according to Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers.
“Further increases are priced in, but the Fed seems to be okay with the market’s belief that rates will go to 5%,” he said. “I think we’re close to the Fed pausing on interest rates, although they are not going to admit that until they actually do it.”
Despite Tuesday’s rally, China’s Covid control restrictions are still weighing on investors.
Shutdowns can have a negative impact on supply-chain dynamics and possibly exacerbate inflation issues across economies.
These restrictions now impact a fifth of China’s economy.
Chinese stocks listed in the US fell on Tuesday.
The OECD said the world’s central banks must continue to raise interest rates to fight soaring and pervasive inflation, even as the global economy sinks into a significant slowdown.
The unexpected surge in prices and its impact on real incomes is hurting people everywhere, creating problems that will only worsen if policy makers fail to act, the Paris-based organization said.
Key events this week:
* S&P Global PMIs: US, Euro area, UK, Wednesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, initial jobless claims, University of Michigan sentiment, new home sales, Wednesday
* Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Nov. 1-2 meeting, Wednesday
* ECB publishes account of its October policy meeting, Thursday
* US stock and bond markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, Thursday
* US stock and bond markets close early, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0300
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.1889
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 141.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $16,116.23
* Ether rose 3% to $1,126.48
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 3.76%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 1.98%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $81.14 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Felice Maranz, Vildana Hajric, John Viljoen and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. –John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com