Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.
November 21, 1783: Man’s first flight in a balloon.
November 21, 1877: Thomas Edison announces the invention of the phonograph, enabling sound recording and playback for the first time in human history.
November 21, 1995: Dow Jones tops 5000 for the first time.
November 21, 2010: Debt-struck Ireland applied for a massive EU-IMF loan to stem the flight of capital from its banks.
Voltaire, writer, b.1694.
Henry Purcell, composer, d.1695.
Harpo Marx, comedian, b. 1888.
Marlo Thomas, actress, b.1937.
Goldie Hawn, actress, b. 1945.
Bjork, singer/songwriter, b.1965.
A polar vortex disruption is on the way
Winter is coming … Stratospheric shifts over the next 10 days are likely to trigger cold, snowy conditions across the Northern Hemisphere.
Canadian man loses legal battle to keep his secret million-dollar stash
A Canadian man has lost his legal battle to get back more than 1.2 million Canadian dollars he had stored in bizarre locations around his home.
A sky full of private jets
Even if you’re flying commercial for the holidays, private jets might be making your trip more expensive
| ‘3I/ATLAS is a comet’: NASA finally releases new 3I/ATLAS images and addresses alien rumors |
NASA’s highly anticipated comet 3I/ATLAS images have been released, with a space agency official shooting down alien rumors and stressing that the interstellar visitor is a comet. Read More.
| Viking Age woman found buried with scallop shells on her mouth, and archaeologists are mystified |
A ninth-century grave discovered in Norway held the remains of a Viking Age woman whose mouth was covered with two large scallop shells. Read More.
| Scientists put moss on the outside of the International Space Station for 9 months — then kept it growing back on Earth |
A species of moss survived for 9 months on the outside of the International Space Station, new research reveals — and 80% of the samples kept reproducing when returned to Earth. Read More.
| ‘A forest with bonobos has never been so quiet’: Most extreme case of violence in ‘hippie’ species recorded, with females ganging up on male in unprecedented attack |
Female bonobos routinely form coalitions to stamp out threats from males, but the level of violence in this attack was unprecedented. Read More.
| ‘I don’t know if CDC will survive, to be quite frank’: Former CDC officials describe the disintegration of the agency under RFK |
Three former CDC officials share their experiences at the agency leading up to their resignations. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Altadena, US
Motorists queue to receive free groceries after the federal government shutdown that caused delays to Snap/CalFresh food benefits in California
Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty
Mexico City, Mexico
People at Zócalo Plaza take part in the Revolution Day parade commemorating the 115th anniversary of the Mexican revolution
Photograph: Gerardo Vieyra/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Tokyo, Japan
Visitors row boats under autumn foliage at Inokashira Park
Photograph: Louise Delmotte/AP
Market Closes for November 21st, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46245.41 | +493.15 |
| +1.08% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6602.99 | +64.23 |
| +0.98% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22273.08 | +195.03 |
| +0.88% | ||
| TSX | 30160.65 | +254.10 |
| +0.85% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 48625.88 | -1198.06 |
| -2.40% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25220.02 | -615.55 |
| -2.38% | ||
| SENSEX | 85231.92 | -400.76 |
| -0.47% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9539.71 | +12.06 |
| +0.13% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.195 | 3.223 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.659 | 3.674 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0633 | 4.0845 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7120 | 4.7229 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7091 | 0.7093 |
| US $ |
1.4101 | 1.4097 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6237 | 0.6158 |
| US $ |
1.1512 | 0.8685 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4072.85 | 4126.95 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 58.31 | 59.14 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1985, the S&P 500 closed above 200 for the first time, finishing the day at 201.41. It had taken the index more than 17 years to double.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 30,160.65 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Nov.
12 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.2%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 144 of 212 shares rose, while 64 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.5%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This month, the index fell 0.3%, heading for the biggest decline since March
* So far this week, the index fell 0.5%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.3% below its 52-week high on Nov. 12, 2025 and 35.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 18.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.82% compared with 16.17% in the previous session and the average of 14.01% over the past month
Index
Financials | 125.5231| 1.3| 22/2
Information Technology | 51.4150| 1.8| 8/1
Materials | 51.3522| 1.1| 37/13
Industrials | 24.1748| 0.7| 17/11
Consumer Discretionary | 18.8874| 1.9| 7/2
Consumer Staples | 17.4633| 1.7| 10/1
Real Estate | 7.4800| 1.6| 17/1
Communication Services | 2.7110| 0.4| 4/1
Health Care | 2.1543| 2.8| 4/0
Utilities | 0.0957| 0.0| 9/5
Energy | -47.1368| -1.0| 9/27
Shopify | 37.2300| 2.1| 1.1| 36.1
RBC | 33.4400| 1.6| 27.0| 22.0
Brookfield Corp | 21.1300| 2.3| -6.9| 14.4
Enbridge | -8.0870| -0.8| -36.9| 10.8
Cameco | -11.2400| -3.2| 25.8| 51.5
Canadian Natural | Resources | -11.5500| -1.7| 27.6| 6.2
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange recovered much of its day-prior losses on Friday as concerns around the valuation of AI-related stocks were set aside, at least for now, while Rosenberg Research provided technical analysis that may buoy investors, as BMO said it sees signs that the mood among Canadian consumers and businesses is "lifting from the darkness" .
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 254.10 points, or 0.85%, at 30,160.65.
This comes after the TSX was down near 370 points yesterday amid fears of a market correction, spurred by a potential re-pricing downwards of tech stocks and AI-related ones in particular.
Among sectors, Health Care was up 3.15% and Base Metals up 1.9%.
Weighing on gains, the Battery Metals Index was down near 5% and Energy eased 0.8%.
In terms of market strategy, Walter Murphy at Rosenberg Research published technical analysis on the S&P 500, which may be of interest to those who invest across North America, and may provide clues as to where equity market are headed.
Since October’s high, Murphy noted, the S&P 500 has declined by 5%, which is its largest correction since the index’s late April, four-day pullback right after the April 7 low at 4,835.
He said a number of indicators are confirming this price weakness by also hitting levels not seen since April.
For example, the daily Coppock Curve moved well below its neutral zero line even as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) moved below "40" for the first time since April 21.
At the same time, Murphy noted, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average hit 36.4% earlier this week.
The last time it was lower was April 28, when the index was only about halfway through its February to April sell-off.
Not surprisingly, Murphy said, the ‘500 has been closing below its 50-day moving average in recent days.
He added it is not just S&P 500 stocks, the percentage of stocks in the broad NYSE Composite that are trading below their 50-day moving average has recently been probing 35%.
Finally, Murphy noted, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks on a point-and-figure buy signal [where charts track only price changes and ignore time] fell below 40% on Monday.
This Bullish Percent Index was at 11.8% in April and 76.2% in July.
Murphy said: "All of this suggests that the index is short-term oversold.
This allows for a rally.
However, the expectation is that a coming rally will be a countertrend event."
"So, for now," he added, "the S&P 500’s post-April rally is bending, but it has not broken."
He noted the index was still managing to hold above 6,550 as of Wednesday.
Murphy said the rally will "continue to be given the benefit of the doubt above this level", while a breakdown would break the post-April series of higher highs and higher lows.
"It would also do much to complete a top formation and set the stage for additional weakness.
For reference, a normal minimum expectation for a Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the post-April rally to date would imply a decline to the 6,125 area," he added.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note said even amid a sluggish growth backdrop, there are signs that the mood among Canadian consumers and businesses is lifting from the darkness earlier this year.
For example, he noted, the CFIB reports the index on the 12-month outlook hit its best level of the year in November at 55.5, a reading that is almost back to the average over the past decade.
"That helps somewhat close the curiously wide gap between extremely weak business sentiment on the one side, and record equity prices on the other side.
Of course, unfortunately some of the narrowing has been driven by a moderate retreat in stocks, with even the previously world-leading TSX succumbing to gravity, pulling back roughly 3% from last week’s record high," he added.
Of commodities, gold traded higher by midafternoon Friday on revived hopes around a December interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve after a bullish U.S. jobs report.
Gold for December delivery was up $16.30 to US$4,076.30 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling for a third day to a month low on abundant supply even as gasoline and diesel demand remains solid amid declining availability.
WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down $0.94 to settle at US$58.06 per barrel, the lowest since Oct.21, while January Brent crude was last seen down $0.78 to US$62.61.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street wrapped up a chaotic week with a turnaround in stocks after a selloff that whipsawed some of the most-speculative corners of the market, testing investors’ nerves after a torrid rally.
About 450 shares in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge up 1%.
Nvidia Corp. pared most of a plunge that earlier topped 4%.
Bloomberg News reported US officials are having early talks on whether to let the firm sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China.
The market also got an injection of hope as a Federal Reserve official suggested a rate cut remains a possibility.
This week saw a resurgence in volatility as assets favored by retail momentum traders like crypto and AI winners saw wild swings.
The lack of clarity on whether the Fed will be able to cut rates has also jolted markets.
Bitcoin bounced from its lows but was still set for its worst month since 2022.
“The broader narrative hasn’t broken,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Periods like this often act as a release valve rather than signaling a true trend reversal. Markets need recalibration and a reset in positioning — something investors may have forgotten after six months of relative calm.”
Bond yields fell as Fed Bank of New York President John Williams sees room to ease policy in the near term.
While traders boosted bets on a December cut, officials remain split on whether to lower rates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled its October consumer price index report, and will release the November one on Dec. 18.
Despite the rebound in stocks, the S&P 500 was still poised for its worst month since March.
And that’s a rarity as November is historically a good period for equities.
For some traders, the flip side is that the rout might set the market up for a year-end rally.
“It’s hard to call a bottom to the correction, but if the better bets on a December Fed cut come through, we will likely have a material rebound in December,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
The market also saw amplified swings Friday as over $3.1 trillion of notional options exposure were estimated to expire.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell two basis points to 4.06% The dollar wavered.
Bitcoin trimmed losses to trade above $84,000.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Tony Pasquariello sees signs of
“capitulation” in US stocks, and expects more selling before the equity market stabilizes.
“While lower prices would likely bring more supply from both the systematic and the discretionary trading communities and while the full hangover from the October party may not yet be washed out, my instinct is this week has seen a significant dose of risk transfer and some elements of capitulation,” Pasquariello wrote.
Battered traders looking for a reason to wade back into this week’s turbulent market got one from a Barclays Plc model with a solid track record.
The firm’s Equities Timing Indicator, known as BETI, fell below -7 for the first time since Aug. 4, Alexander Altmann, global head of equities tactical strategies wrote.
That level has a 10-year track record of signaling near-term advances in the S&P 500.
“A period of de-risking should not come as a surprise — we note that equity segments with limited exposure to the AI capex story have also seen sharp drops in recent weeks, said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Looking forward, we believe that Fed rate cuts, robust corporate earnings, and the AI growth story will sustain the equity rally into 2026.”
“While we expect volatility in 2026, we do expect a positive return with the S&P 500 reaching 7,500 by the end of next year,” said Mary Ann Bartels at Sanctuary Wealth.
“We see technology and tech-related stocks maintaining leadership, but they will digest some of their extraordinary gains, in our view.”
The gauge closed around 6,600 Friday.
Two parallel stories currently drive financial markets: a monetary policy story and an artificial intelligence monetization story, according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management.
“These two narratives recently gave the impression of overlapping temporarily, amid confusion introduced by the lack of macro data related to the American shutdown,” Ielpo said.
“The fog is gradually lifting, however, allowing us to glimpse how distinct they actually are, and thus carrying different market effects.”
Ielpo noted that the push born from Nvidia’s good results has led to a form of profit-taking rather than a wave of panic.
“If this is indeed a profit-taking phase, then it could prove short-lived – micro and macro factors remain relatively healthy at this stage,” he noted.
Scott Wren says he favors a large-cap and tech focus, but would selectively trim and diversify.
“We believe the next 12-15 months will favor US equities, based on our expectations for accelerating earnings,” said the global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“AI looks like a classic investment bubble to us, with very high valuations and signs of rampant speculation.
But we recognize that while many investors may harbor fears of an AI bubble, they are far from sure of that fact and tend to assume the market is appropriately priced,” said Ben Inker in the latest GMO Quarterly Letter.
While agnostic investors would face more difficult choices if the rally continues, they could also take solace in the strong returns of the well-diversified portfolios that got them to that point, he noted.
“As bubbles go, AI looks like one of the easy ones for an agnostic investor to handle,” Inker concluded.
Meantime, equity traders have grown increasingly concerned about the amount of leverage that big tech is taking on to build out its AI infrastructure as the industry faces rising fears of a bubble.
The enormous sums major technology companies are spending on AI are nothing new, but the record pile of debt they’re raising to do it is.
What’s worrying stock traders is the trend represents a break from recent history, when companies tapped their huge cash piles to pay for their capital expenditures.
The use of leverage and the circular nature of many of the financing deals introduces a level of risk that wasn’t there before.
“The market has been fixated on the drop in specific tech names and their credit default swap levels,” said Bob Savage at BNY.
“This starts with the issuance of debt to finance AI investments, diluting free cash flow.
It’s compounded by high valuations and concerns about long-term sustainability of growth, especially as large numbers weigh on percentage gains.”
The burden of proof for technology now lies with margins and returns, Savage said, making fourth-quarter earnings reports critical to sustaining the tech sector’s dominance.
“While near-term liquidity and holiday calm may limit volatility, the interplay between corporate credit costs and equity valuations – particularly in technology – will define relative performance,” he said.
Equity managers should remain attentive to margin sustainability and capital discipline as the market transitions from rotation-driven trade to fundamentals-driven returns heading into 2026, Savage noted.
At Strategas, Ryan Grabinski noted that his firm’s basket of companies that haven’t mentioned “AI” in earnings transcripts over the past two years had been showing strong outperformance in the two weeks leading up to Nvidia’s results.
However, over the past few days, that momentum appears to have stalled.
“If this trend continues, it suggests the current market correction may be less about the AI capex cycle and more indicative of emerging concerns in private credit or deleveraging within the crypto space,” he said.
Bitcoin has now shed about a quarter of its value in November, the most for a single month since June 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The implosion of Do Kwon’s TerraUSD stablecoin project in May of that year sparked a daisy chain of corporate failures that culminated in the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange.
Despite a pro-crypto White House under US President Donald Trump and surging institutional adoption, Bitcoin has plummeted over 30% since rocketing to a record in early October.
The rout follows a crippling bout of liquidations on Oct. 10 that wiped out $19 billion in leveraged token bets, and in turn erased roughly $1.5 trillion from the combined market value of all cryptocurrencies.
Such deep pullbacks are more common in cryptos given their heightened volatility, but the absence of interest is still notable, noted Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.
“The next major support zone comes in around $80,000, which served as a launchpad back in April,” he said.
“Bitcoin could even dip towards $75,000 before potentially finding support. So, both these levels are important to keep an eye on.”
Currently there is a long-term momentum signal that has turned bearish for Bitcoin – potentially portending substantial more downside to come, according to Michael Purves at Tallbacken Capital Advisors.
In the immediate term, we note that Bitcoin is very oversold and has been bouncing off the $80,000 level, he said.
“Some near-term consolidation should be expected,” Purves concluded.
Corporate Highlights:
* Cathie Wood’s flagship fund bought Nvidia Corp. shares on Thursday following the company’s blowout earnings, reiterating her firm ARK Investment Management’s bullish stance on the chip bellwether.
* Amazon.com Inc.’s Ring division has ordered hundreds of customer service workers to relocate to central hubs in the US and UK amid a companywide push to streamline and automate operations.
* Gap Inc. said its sales came in stronger than expected bucking the trend across the majority of retail and restaurant chains that have been warning of consumers’ deepening caution in recent weeks.
* Ford Motor Co. said the latest fire at a key aluminum supplier in New York won’t derail its profits this year because the blaze was “swiftly contained” and the plant is operating again.
* Eli Lilly & Co. and Novo Nordisk A/S plan to start selling their popular obesity shots to employers through a new approach that would bypass traditional drug sales channels in an effort to expand access to the costly weight-loss medicines.
** Four patients who developed a serious eye disease after using Novo Nordisk A/S’s blockbuster weight-loss drugs have been granted compensation in Denmark, the drugmaker’s home market.
* The three bidders for Warner Brothers Discovery Inc. present a host of regulatory concerns that could delay a merger approval for a year or more, according to people familiar with the process.
* Airbnb Inc. Chief Technology Officer Ari Balogh plans to step aside from his role in December, the company said in an exchange filing on Friday.
* IAG SA, parent company of British Airways, has submitted its expression of interest in TAP SA, joining Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa AG in the bidding process for a minority stake in the Portuguese airline.
* Ubisoft Entertainment SA said it will use money from a Tencent Holdings Ltd. investment to pay off debt after the video-game publisher breached a loan agreement because of its accounting practices.
* Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. aims to spend an initial $1 billion to $5 billion growing its US manufacturing footprint, propelling an expansion aimed at sating the enormous needs of AI sector leaders Nvidia Corp. and OpenAI.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Fears that we are heading for a 2000-style dot-com bust look unfounded, not least because there’s no sign that AI names are cracking under debt stress.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.8%
* Nvidia fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1518
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3105
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 156.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.1% to $84,510.35
* Ether fell 4.9% to $2,736.08
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.55%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.51%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.71%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $57.95 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,068.26 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
The soft and tender roots of a plant can make their way through the hardest soil, even the cracks in a rock.
Love works in the same way; nothing can resist love. –Henry David Thoreau, 1817-1862.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828