November 15, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Minnesota has gotten more than 2,500 design submissions for its new state flag
Minnesota is asking for help in redesigning its state flag! See a few of the designs submitted by residents.

NASA and Japan to launch world’s 1st wooden satellite
The magnolia wood LignoSat is an attempt to make space junk biodegradable. NASA and Japan’s space agency (JAXA) could launch it as soon as 2024.

The ‘world’s skinniest hotel’ measures nine feet across
A remarkably skinny hotel in Indonesia has just seven rooms, with each big enough for a double bed and small bathroom. Take a look inside.

Mysterious ‘lunar swirls’ may be close to an explanation
No one knows what causes lunar swirls, but new evidence shows they may be tied to certain elevations on the moon’s surface.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yancheng, China
An aerial view of a herd of elk travelling across the Dafeng national nature reserve in the eastern Jiangsu province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Paris, France
A giant decorated Christmas tree in the central atrium at the Galeries Lafayette department store
Photograph: Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

​​​​​​​Pushkar, India
Herders rest beside their animals before an annual camel fair in the desert state of Rajasthan
Photograph: Himanshu Sharma/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 15^th,2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1867, the first practical stock ticker was introduced in New York. The gizmo made continuous nationwide transmission of stock prices possible for the first time.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.2%, or 34.16 to 20,057.89 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Sept. 20.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.1%.
Today, 114 of 227 shares rose, while 109 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 3.5%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 0.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.8% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 7.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.7% in the past 5 days and rose 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 on a trailing basis and 14.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.17t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 14.36% compared with 14.36% in the previous session and the average of 14.44% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 41.0752| 2.5| 8/3
Financials | 26.3980| 0.4| 22/6
Utilities | 9.8935| 1.2| 12/3
Consumer Discretionary | 5.0625| 0.7| 12/2
Communication Services | 2.5934| 0.3| 3/1
Real Estate | 1.1333| 0.2| 10/11
Health Care | 1.0318| 1.9| 3/1
Industrials | -2.2531| -0.1| 13/12
Materials | -3.2523| -0.1| 20/30
Consumer Staples | -20.7877| -2.3| 2/9
Energy | -26.7364| -0.7| 9/31
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 25.7300| 3.4|n/a | 97.5
Constellation | | | |
Software | 9.8400| 2.3|n/a | 50.9
Nutrien | 9.0520| 3.4|n/a | -19.4
Couche-Tard | -6.0170| -1.5|n/a | 30.1
Metro Inc | -8.2760| -6.8|n/a | -6.1
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | -10.2300| -1.5|n/a | 19.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks extended their November gains on speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to achieve a soft landing as the US economy remains fairly resilient and inflation shows signs of cooling.
The S&P 500 topped 4,500 — though it rose at a much slower pace relative to the previous session, when equities were turbocharged by short covering and bets the Fed’s hiking cycle is over.
Retailer Target Corp. soared on solid earnings, while Nvidia Corp. halted a 10-day rally.
In late trading, Cisco Systems Inc. sank on a disappointing forecast.
Treasuries fell, with traders reloading bearish bets after global bonds came close to erasing their 2023 slide.
Wall Street waded through a batch of economic data for clues on the outlook for the Fed’s next steps.
Retail sales slowed in October and prior months were revised higher — suggesting some resiliency going into the holiday season.
Prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined by the most since April 2020.
“We got more Goldilocks today,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at Trade Station. “Price growth is moderating, but with strong demand on the sidelines. The soft landing is taking shape.”
This month’s rally in equities has driven the S&P 500 closer to its record on a total return basis, reached in January 2022.
In the year after a new all-time high has been made — following an extended period without a new high — the gauge rose nine out of 10 times, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin became the latest Wall Street strategist to come out with a bullish call.
A supportive mix of factors awaits US stocks, with the economy set to avoid a recession, earnings rising and valuations remaining steady, he wrote.
“At this time next year, portfolio managers will look back and realize the best investment strategy for 2024 was to follow Taylor Swift’s advice in the song from her 1989 album: ‘All You Had To Do Was Stay’ – invested,” Kostin said. The song “reflects our baseline forecast that despite intermittent volatility, fund managers will ultimately be rewarded for staying invested through the end of next year.”
The S&P 500 staged a trend-line breakout over the past few sessions, and this can “tee up a retest of the 2023 highs within the low-4,600+ zone”, said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Keep in mind that the index is now pressing into overbought territory and thus is likely to see some profit-taking/consolidation ahead,” he noted.
To Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise Financial, there’s an “entrenched disinflation trend,” and stocks are reacting positively to that because it likely means the Fed is done raising rates.
Given the strong consumer, it is only reasonable to assume that corporate profits will continue to grow — adding fuel to the fire for the year-end rally, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“We have continued to stay long equities, despite the recent pullback — and have been adding duration in fixed income since Treasuries hit 5%, and we believe that the year-end rally will broaden out,” he noted.
Meantime, Treasuries retreated Wednesday in a move that was less a direct response to the economic data — and more a function of relief that consumption wasn’t further undermined by the labor-market softening, according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
The bond market is at risk of leaning too heavily toward rate cuts next year as “the inflation problem is far from being solved,” according to Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co.
T. Rowe Price says bets on Fed easing next year are overblown, and expects growth in the US and higher interest rates versus other major economies to support the dollar.
Fidelity International sees those higher-for-longer US interest rates risking dragging the economy into a downturn that would benefit the greenback.
Elsewhere, oil fell after a government report showed swelling US crude inventories.

Corporate Highlights:
* Cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks Inc. missed Wall Street estimates for billings and lowered its estimates for the full year.
* Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. said it will seek a new chief executive officer, cut costs and weigh options for several business lines as part of a sweeping overhaul under pressure from activist Elliott Investment Management.
* SpaceX received approval for the second launch of its groundbreaking Starship rocket, ending an almost seven-month hiatus and inching Elon Musk closer to his goal of sending humans to the moon and beyond.
* Value Act Capital has built a stake in Walt Disney Co., a person with knowledge of the matter said, adding more activist pressure to the US media and entertainment giant as it battles historic shifts in its industry.
* Sanofi is working with an adviser to start preparations for a planned separation of its consumer health division, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* Alstom SA, a train maker, flagged a possible equity raise alongside job cuts and asset sales to help shore up its balance sheet.

Key events this week:
* China new home prices, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Walmart earnings, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed vice chair for supervision Michael Barr speak, Thursday
* Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden and ECB President Christine Lagarde speak at event, Thursday
* US housing starts, Friday
* US Congress faces a midnight deadline to pass a federal spending measure, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0843
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2410
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 151.42 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.5% to $37,560.5
* Ether rose 3.2% to $2,045.2
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 4.54%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 4.23%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $76.57 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,959.39 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Garfield Reynolds, Ruth Carson and Esha Dey.

Have a wonderful day everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“A champion is defined not by their wins but by how they can recover when they fall.” —Serena Williams

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
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Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

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