November 1, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
All Saints Day, Christian calendar.

November 1, 1348: The Black Death pandemic reaches London, and goes on to kill approximately one third of the world’s population.
November 1, 1993: European Union established.
On Nov. 1, 1952, the United States exploded the first hydrogen bomb, in a test at Eniwetok in the Marshall Islands.  Go to article »

Astronomers spotted a ‘planet killer’ asteroid hiding in the sun’s glare.  While it may sound like a new movie plot, a massive near-Earth asteroid has actually been lurking undetected within the glare of the sun.

Actress Julia Roberts reveals Martin Luther King Jr. and Coretta Scott King paid the hospital bill for her birth.  Find out why the civil rights leaders paid for the birth of the woman who would become an international star.

Archaeologists in Sweden have unearthed two Viking swords in neighboring graves that were buried upright, as if they were standing on their points.  Whoever installed the iron swords perpendicular to the surface about 1,200 years ago clearly did so on purpose, as it would have taken a lot of effort — possibly involving a rock or hammer — to wedge the weapons roughly 16 inches (40 centimeters) into the ground, archaeologists told Live Science.
Full Story: Live Science (10/31)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Srinagar, India
People walk through the maple trees at Nishat Garden
Photograph: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty Images

London, England
Harbour of Dieppe: Changement de Domicile and Cologne, and The Arrival of a Packet-Boat: Evening, on view at the National Gallery as part of the Turner on Tour exhibition
Photograph: Guy Bell/REX/Shutterstock

San Cristobal de las Casas, Mexico
Women dressed as Catrinas parade through the city to celebrate the traditional Day of the Dead and Halloween
Photograph: Carlos López/EPA
Market Closes for November 1st, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
🔀 On this day in 1999, shortly after its 103rd birthday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average replaced four old companies—Chevron (a Dow member since 1984), Goodyear (a member since 1930), Sears (since 1924) and Union Carbide (since 1928) with four hot growth stocks—Home Depot, Intel, Microsoft and SBC Communications.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 19,517.71 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Sept. 19 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 9.0%.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. had the largest increase, rising 12.0%.
Today, 156 of 236 shares rose, while 78 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* The index declined 8.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.1% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 9.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 12.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.11t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 22.40% compared with 22.56% in the previous session and the average of 22.47% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 52.7926| 2.4| 46/5
Energy | 22.3719| 0.6| 27/11
Financials | 14.1184| 0.2| 16/13
Consumer Staples | 7.6040| 0.9| 9/2
Information Technology | 7.5653| 0.7| 8/6
Communication Services | 4.2693| 0.5| 6/1
Real Estate | 1.4996| 0.3| 17/5
Health Care | -1.2814| -1.5| 1/5
Consumer Discretionary | -1.7224| -0.2| 7/7
Utilities | -4.8180| -0.5| 4/11
Industrials | -10.8513| -0.4| 15/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
First Quantum Minerals | 8.2940| 9.0| -6.2| -13.5
Suncor Energy | 8.2660| 1.9| 10.3| 50.8
Agnico Eagle Mines | 7.5690| 4.0| -10.7| -7.2
WSP Global | -2.4420| -1.8| -16.8| -10.5
Canadian National | -2.7140| -0.4| -46.2| 3.5
Thomson Reuters | -5.0400| -3.2| 107.3| -7.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks finished lower as data showing a solid US labor market bolstered speculation that Federal Reserve policy could remain aggressively tight even with the threat of a recession.
At a time when good news is considered bad news when it comes to policy conjectures, the S&P 500 wiped out a rally as the figures highlighted an unexpected rebound in US job openings, which may keep the pressure on the Fed.
It was the 26th time in 2022 that the equity gauge erased a gain or loss of at least 1% in one session — the most for any year since the financial crisis.
“Hopes for a Fed dovish pivot are misplaced if today’s job openings are any guide,” said Ronald Temple, head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management. “Despite other signs of economic deceleration, the job openings data taken together with nonfarm payroll growth indicate the Fed is far from the point where it can declare victory over inflation and lift its foot off the economic brake.”
Friday’s jobs report is currently forecast to show US employers added about 196,000 workers to payrolls in October.
Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to edge up to 3.6%, and for average hourly earnings to post another solid advance.
After the closing bell, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. topped earnings estimates, but gave a downbeat forecast for the current period.
Airbnb Inc. slumped as demand weakened for pricey pandemic-era bookings.
Electronic Arts Inc., the video game publisher behind franchises such as Madden NFL, cut its forecast for net bookings, citing the strength of the US dollar.
Big tech weighed on equities Tuesday, with Apple Inc. down almost 2% and Amazon.com Inc. hitting its lowest since 2020.
Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. jumped.
After notching its best month in 46 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near a resistance level that saw the index halt a few rally attempts in the past few months.
Two-year US yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, rose.
Also weighing on market sentiment was a separate report showing US manufacturing neared stagnation in October as orders contracted for the fourth time in five months, while an index of prices paid fell to a more than two-year low. The figures added to evidence of recession concerns as central banks step up the fight to get inflation under control.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., a lot of what will take place in markets over the next few weeks will hinge upon Powell’s signals on Wednesday as well as the subsequent Fedspeak.
Tom Porcelli at RBC Capital Markets says that if the Fed’s boss really wants to transition to shallower hikes, he should maintain some element of hawkishness as there’s a “decent risk of creating confusion.”
“As we have not yet reached the peak for Fed rate hikes, it’s highly unlikely that we’ve already seen the bottom of this bear market, especially given the history of Fed rate hikes peaking before the market troughs,” noted Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
She anticipates the market floor for this cycle will most likely be reached in the first or second quarters of 2023.
For now, Shah sees both market and inflation volatility persisting alongside further Fed rate hikes in the last few months of 2002 and into early next year.
Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments says she believes the Fed may pause its rate hikes soon even amid strong inflation.
Financial conditions have tightened substantially, and recession should be considered a base case, she added.
“Let me be clear — a Fed pause is not the same as a pivot,” Goodwin added. “Certainly, deteriorating economic and credit conditions could cause the Fed to pivot modestly at some point, but a full pivot into accommodative territory is highly unlikely in the next year.”

Earlier in the day, speculation that China is preparing to gradually exit the stringent Covid Zero stance helped boost equities.
A gauge of the nation’s stocks listed in Hong Kong surged almost 7% intraday.
Shares pared gains after Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said he’s “not aware” of a committee on ending the policy.

Key events this week:
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment, Wednesday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US factory orders, durable goods, trade, initial jobless claims, ISM services index, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $0.9878
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.1483
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 148.19 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $20,445.94
* Ether rose 0.7% to $1,576.28
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.05%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.13%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $88.27 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,651.30 an ounce
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Elaine Chen, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

The great enemy of the truth is very often not he lie – deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.  – John F. Kennedy, 1917-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com