Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday.
May 4, 1626: Dutch explorer Peter Minuit landed on what is now Manhattan. Go to article.
May 4, 1904: Th United States takes over construction of the Panama canal after France abandons the project, following years of disease, accidents, and around 22,000 deaths.
May 4, 1886: Haymarket Square riot.
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| ‘If astrological compatibility exists, its effects should be observable’: How one study of 20 million people shows star signs have no influence on romantic compatibility |
In this excerpt from "What Science Says About Astrology," author Carlos Orsi examines a 2007 study of 20 million people that showed star signs have no influence on romantic relationships. Read more.
| What’s the difference between a lion and a tiger? |
One has stripes, and one doesn’t. But do the differences between lions and tigers go deeper than that? Read more.
Silence is the ultimate weapon of power. -Charles De Gaulle.
Video: Shakira draws crowd of 2 million for Rio concert
The staggering turnout puts it among the largest concerts of her career.
At this party, everyone is the same height
Guests at a California gathering stepped into custom shoes that made them all 6 feet 5 inches tall.
Ube, everywhere
CNN goes inside the complex, secretive business of buying ube, the internet’s new favorite food.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Milan, Italy
People celebrate Inter’s Serie A championship victory in the Piazza del Duomo. Sunday’s victory over Parma has secured the Milanese team’s 21st league title
Photograph: Pietro Staricco/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock
Shaftesbury, UK
The annual Gold Hill Cheese Race on ‘Hovis Hill’, where competitors race up the 72-metre course carrying a 25kg wheel of cheese. The steep cobbled hill was made famous in Ridley Scott’s Hovis bread advert in 1973
Photograph: ZacharyCulpin/BNPS
Gold Coast, Australia
Ethan Ewing surfs in the semifinals of the Gold Coast Pro at Snapper Rocks
Photograph: Jason O’Brien/EPA
Market Closes for May 4th, 2026
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
48941.90 | -557.37 |
| -1.13% | ||
| S&P 500 | 7200.75 | -29.37 |
| -0.41% | ||
| NASDAQ | 25067.80 | -46.64 |
| -0.19% | ||
| TSX | 33638.87 | -252.31 |
| -0.74% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 59513.12 | +228.20 |
| +0.38% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26095.88 | +319.35 |
| +1.24% | ||
| SEN SEX | 77269.40 | +355.90 |
| +0.46% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 10363.93 | -14.89 |
| -14.89% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.613 | 3.527 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.958 | 3.895 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.4382 | 4.3698 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
5.0147 | 4.9585 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7341 | 0.7357 |
| US $ |
1.3622 | 1.3591 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6278 | 1.5928 |
| US $ |
0.8552 | 1.1700 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4636.90 | 4636.90 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 106.42 | 101.94 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1979, the first modern leveraged buyout using high-yield junk bonds—a $381 million deal to take Houdaille Industries private—was completed by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts. Over the next six years, Houdaille produced a 33.9% average annual return for KKR’s institutional investors.
🍒Canada🍓
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.7%, or 252.31 to 33,638.87 in Toronto.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.5%.
Gildan Activewear Inc. had the largest drop, falling 5.5%.
Today, 148 of 220 shares fell, while 72 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 34% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.6% below its 52-week high on March 2, 2026 and 35.3% above its low on May 6, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 1.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 on a trailing basis and 16.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.35t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.42% compared with 14.90% in the previous session and the average of 17.08% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | -107.8100| -1.0| 3/21
Materials | -94.2632| -1.6| 7/53
Industrials | -47.0989| -1.3| 13/16
Consumer Discretionary| -21.7988| -2.0| 2/7
Consumer Staples | -15.2177| -1.4| 1/9
Utilities | -2.6544| -0.2| 6/8
Real Estate | -1.8143| -0.4| 6/13
Communication Services| -1.1004| -0.2| 2/3
Health Care | -0.3476| -0.4| 2/2
Information Technology| 7.8449| 0.3| 6/3
Energy | 31.9421| 0.5| 24/13
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -25.7100| -3.5| 22.9| 11.9
CIBC | -18.4100| -1.9| -20.5| 20.3
RBC | -17.9100| -0.8| 33.0| 3.6
Cenovus | 9.1950| 2.4| 49.0| 75.7
Suncor | 12.2500| 1.6| 56.8| 53.2
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.6800| 1.4| -39.9| 39.3
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down again on Monday, its seventh loss over the last eight trading sessions, as tensions spike around the Strait of Hormuz, the Bank of Canada is seen embarking on an "aggressive tightening cycle in the near term" and the Canadian federal government appears to be preparing people for a drawn out trade war with the United States.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 252.31, or 0.7%, to 33,638.87, with most sectors lower, led by Base Metals, down near 2%, amid weaker gold prices.
Energy was the biggest gainer, up 1.35%, on an elevated oil price.
According to FactSet the TSX going in to today was down 455.11 points, or 1.33%, over the last two losing weeks.
Still, year-to-date the index was up 2,178.42 points, or 6.87%, as of last Friday’s close.
In the Strait of Hormuz, the BBC on Monday afternoon noted, among other related headline stories, that President Trump said the U.S. struck seven Iranian fast boats after vowing to help stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s military said it fired warning shots at American warships.
Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins, said the resumption of "kinetic conflict" in the Iran war has prompted a reassessment of the global monetary policy outlook.
In Canada, he noted, Overnight Index Swap (OIS) markets now imply the Bank of Canada will embark on an "aggressive tightening cycle" in the near term.
"In our view, current market pricing appears to be embedding persistently high oil prices, somewhat consistent with the upside risk scenario outlined by the Bank just last week," said Mendes.
In its Monetary Policy Report, Mendes noted, the BoC’s base case projections were conditioned on a "relatively benign" oil-price assumption.
However, he also noted, policymakers also highlighted an alternative scenario in which oil prices remain near US$100 per barrel for at least the next two years.
While growth in that scenario is only modestly stronger than in the base case, inflation is materially higher and broader based.
Governor Macklem, Mendes noted, emphasized that if higher energy prices translate into "ongoing generalized increases in inflation", multiple rate hikes would likely be required.
Mendes said current market pricing already appears to incorporate both the timing and much of the magnitude of the tightening Desjardins would expect under such conditions.
To arrive at this conclusion, Desjardins employed a Taylor Rule consistent with BoC literature, supplemented with judgment to replicate a forward-looking policymaker.
In this scenario, the yield curve would likely flatten further, reflecting the assumption that policy tightening would ultimately prove temporary, Mendes added.
By contrast, the Desjardins base case assumption is that oil prices begin to retrace in the coming months, creating a compelling case for a reversal in rates markets.
"While inflation concerns currently dominate the narrative and investors are increasingly hedging against the risk of runaway inflation, we view the present environment as fundamentally different from the post-COVID period, when inflation surged amid extraordinary policy support and acute supply disruptions," Mendes said.
"Moreover, existing fragilities in the Canadian economy and financial system would make an extended or aggressive tightening cycle particularly costly," he added.
This comes as the federal government is launching a new $1 billion loan program for steel, aluminum and copper businesses impacted by U.S. President Trump’s tariffs.
Industry Minister Melanie Joly and minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario Evan Solomon made the announcement in Ontario on Monday morning.
"The new measures announced today will protect workers and ensure companies have the tools and financing they need to keep operating, growing, and building Canada’s strength at home," Joly said in a statement.
The funding was not part of last week’s spring economic update.
Joly pointed to the Trump administration’s adjustment to Section 232 tariffs, which imposed 50% duties on items made entirely or almost made entirely of steel, aluminum and copper, and 25% levies on derivative items, as a reason for the initiative.
Those tariffs came into effect on April 6.
Canada has imposed a 25% tariff on a list of U.S. steel product imports worth $12.6 billion and aluminum products worth $3 billion in response to Trump’s tariffs.
The federal government has also slapped a 25% surtax on specific Chinese steel and aluminum products and quota restrictions to combat unfair trade practices and overcapacity as a way to help those industries.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher Monday in volatile trade as traders eye escalating violence in the Persian Gulf.
WTI oil for June delivery closed up $4.48 to settle at US$106.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up $6.53 to US$114.70.
But gold traded lower by midafternoon Monday as the dollar and yields rose, forcing the precious metal below the tight range it has stuck within for the past month.
Gold for June delivery was down $112.20 to US $4,533.20 per ounce, the lowest since March 27.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in oil drove both stocks and bonds lower on concerns that an escalation of hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz will keep energy costs elevated, fueling global inflation risks.
Equities dropped from all-time highs as Brent crude jumped about 6%, topping $114.
The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Persian Gulf amid a flare-up of violence that also drew in the United Arab Emirates.
With oil prices not far from a four-year peak, the decline in Treasuries sent 30-year yields above 5%.
The US fought off Iran’s attacks as it facilitated the passage of two vessels through Hormuz.
Meantime, the UAE blamed an Iranian drone strike for a fire at its Fujairah port and issued several missile alerts for the first time since a truce between Washington and Tehran took hold.
The wave of violence came after a plan announced by President Donald Trump to help vessels through the critical waterway, with Tehran warning it would strike US forces if they came near Hormuz.
Iran will be “blown off the face of the Earth” if it targets American ships in the region, Trump told Fox News.
A vital trade thoroughfare, Hormuz has become a focal point in the current conflict, as Iran exerts its ability to impose asymmetric economic pain and the US struggles to reestablish free transits.
The strait has been virtually blocked since US and Israel began strikes on Iran in late February.
“Even if the immediate conflict de-escalates, we expect the aftershocks will remain with us for some time,” said Darrell Cronk at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“The effects — on energy prices, industrial activity, and geopolitical risk premia — are unlikely to fade quickly.”
“A diplomatic solution to this conflict remains the most likely outcome,” said James McCann at Edward Jones.
“However, the risk of a more prolonged or larger disruption to global energy markets remains important to monitor, in our view, especially with markets having rallied sharply in recent weeks.”
Judging by last week, the market’s recipe for near-term upside will be sidestepping negative surprises out of the Middle East to allow what has been a stronger-than-average earnings season to continue to dominate sentiment, noted Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
Earnings revisions for the S&P 500 have moved higher across multiple time horizons over the past month, according to Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley.
Second-quarter estimates are up 2% and forecasts for calendar 2026 and the next 12 months have risen 3% and 4%, respectively.
“Unless we experience a meaningful external shock, it will be hard to derail momentum and hand control back to the bears,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“That is what is giving this rally a more durable and credible foundation than what we saw just a few weeks ago.”
Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. unveiled a suite of logistics services that will let businesses buy its existing freight and distribution offerings as a package, sending shares of rival delivery companies such as FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. lower.
* GameStop Corp. is trying to buy eBay Inc. for about $56 billion in cash and stock, a bold attempt by Ryan Cohen to take over a storied e-commerce name several times larger.
* A startup backed by General Catalyst Partners agreed to acquire Global Business Travel Group Inc., the travel platform spun out of American Express Co., in a deal worth about $6.3 billion.
* Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s cash pile soared to its highest level ever and operating earnings jumped in Greg Abel’s first quarter as chief executive officer.
* Tyson Foods Inc. raised its full-year profit outlook as strong protein demand enables growth even as the struggling beef segment shows no signs of turning around.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“The 10-year yield is nearing a sensitive area that’s proved hard to digest in recent years. If stocks are more immune to oil prices than bonds, the question is how long they can stay as resistant to higher yields.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1694
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3536
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.11 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $79,991.51
* Ether rose 1% to $2,353.56
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.44%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 3.09%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.96%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.3% to $105.26 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2.1% to $4,517.21 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
What lies behind us and what lies before us are tiny matters compared to what lies within us. — Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828