May 30th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
May 30, 1381: An unpopular poll tax sparks the Peasants’ Revolt, England’s first major uprising and a key moment in feudalism’s decline and property rights’ evolution.
May 30, 2011 Germany announced plans to abandon nuclear power over the next 11 years, outlining an ambitious strategy in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster to replace atomic power with renewable energy sources.  Go to article.
1783: First US newspaper published.

Peter the Great, Russian Tsar, b.1672.

Best cameras 2025: Reviewed and ranked by pros.

How many satellites could fit in Earth orbit? And how many do we really need?

Kilimanjaro’s giant groundsels: The strange plants that thrive on Africa’s tallest mountain.

Newly discovered ‘ghost’ lineage linked to ancient mystery population in Tibet, DNA study finds.

Combo of cancer therapy drugs increases mice lifespan by 30% — but anti-aging benefits in humans remain unknown.

Just imagine how fun the holidays will be
Actor/comedian Eddie Murphy’s son Eric Murphy recently wed Jasmin Lawrence, actor/comedian Martin Lawrence’s daughter. “Yeah, we’re in-laws,” Murphy said on “The Jennifer Hudson Show.”

Fewer perks, more profit
Starbucks plans to eliminate one of its top loyalty perks: the 25-star bonus for customers who bring in a reusable cup for drink orders. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Idlib, Syria
A child working in a rose garden. Growing roses provides financial opportunities for farmers and displaced people in the rural outskirts of Idlib, Damascus and other cities
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

London, UK
Swans, cygnets and geese in Hyde Park
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
London, UK
Manet’s painting At the Cafe (1878, left) on display with Corner of a Cafe-Concert (1878-80) at the National Gallery. They originally formed part of a larger composition known as Reichshoffen, the name of a Parisian brasserie and cafe-concert
Photograph: James Manning/PA
Market Closes for May 30^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Nothing is more amusing than the multitude of laws and canons made in every age on the subject of the interest of money, always by wiseacres  who were hardly acquainted with Trade and always without effect.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.1%, or 35.51 to 26,175.05 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.
Today, 121 of 217 shares fell, while 93 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on May 29, 2025 and 21.9% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.22t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.08% compared with 7.99% in the previous session and the average of 22.16% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | -29.2442| -0.7| 7/33
Materials | -12.5130| -0.4| 30/20
Information Technology | -7.9306| -0.3| 4/6
Real Estate | -2.5525| -0.5| 8/11
Consumer Staples | -0.6875| -0.1| 7/3
Utilities | -0.3545| 0.0| 6/8
Health Care | -0.1377| -0.2| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0044| 0.0| 5/5
Industrials | 0.2546| 0.0| 12/15
Communication Services | 3.3843| 0.6| 5/0
Financials | 14.2760| 0.2| 7/18
Shopify | -16.8000| -1.3| 71.8| -4.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.0900| -1.9| -12.0| -6.1
Cenovus | -5.7320| -3.4| 70.5| -17.0
Enbridge | 8.4070| 0.9| -27.4| 4.7
Constellation Software | 10.9500| 1.6| 205.8| 11.9
RBC | 15.2800| 0.9| 72.7| 0.4
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second-straight day on Friday after running up record highs earlier this week, as one veteran market watcher said the Bank of Canada “would be well advised to get off its derriere” on interest rates.
Not helped by lower commodity prices and a gloomy outlook in Canadian GDP data released earlier in the session, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down today by 35.5 points to close out the week at 26,175.05.
Sectors were mixed, with none rising by even near 1%, while Base Metals and Energy and Health Care were both down near 1.7%.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower for a second day on Friday, moving down on the prospect of surplus supply as the market awaits final court decisions on the legality of blanket U.S. tariffs on the country’s trading partners.
WTI crude for July delivery closed down $0.15 to settle at US$60.79 per barrel, while July Brent crude was down $0.20 to US$63.95.
Also, gold traded lower late afternoon on Friday as the dollar rose after data showed a key measure of U.S. inflation fell more than expected last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $26.00 to US$3,317.90 per ounce.
Much of the focus Friday was on Canadian GDP data as market watchers looked for an update on the health of the economy given the uncertainty over a potential global trade war.
They were also looking for clues as to whether or not the Bank of Canada would get back on the interest-rate cut path next Wednesday.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, said Canada’s Q1 real GDP data had a “strong headline, but showed weakness beneath the surface”.
He noted the headline was up 2.2% annualized, above the consensus for a rise of 1.7%, but this outperformance was offset by a downward revision to Q4 2024.
“Final domestic demand was flat at -0.0% with ownership transfer costs a substantial headwind, a development we had anticipated,” Doyle added.
Looking ahead, Doyle said Canada’s growth is likely to remain subdued due to headwinds from trade policy uncertainty, with this likely to weigh in particular on the auto sector, and a further slowdown in population growth, as well as headwinds to housing activity from mortgage rates resetting higher.
“We see a modest contraction to flat activity as the most likely outcome through year-end,” Doyle said.
For his part veteran economist David Rosenberg published a noted entitled ‘Canadian Economy On Thin Ice” in which he said, in summary, the major point in today’s Q1 GDP report was the modest contraction in real final domestic demand and the “mere” 0.5% growth built into Q2.
Rosenberg noted the monthly GDP showed March coming in soft at +0.1% month over month, and so the ‘hand off’ to Q2 is a “paltry” +0.5% annual rate.
Rosenberg said what that means is the disinflationary output gap is widening again and, as such, the Bank of Canada “would be well advised to get off its derriere”.
After all, he noted, +0.5% is not far off the flat number the Bank had estimated in its first tariff shock scenario in its latest Monetary Policy Report.
“To be sure, not the disaster in the second scenario (-1.3%), but the economy is sufficiently weak to allow the BoC to bring the policy rate down to the lower end of its neutral range of 2.25%-3.25%, which means at least two more cuts are required,” Rosenberg added.
In a separate note entitled ‘Technical Analysis – Global Equity Markets’, Walter Murphy at Rosenberg Research noted the TSX successfully tested important support during its tariff related decline and then rebounded.
It said the index is now on the verge of decisively breaking out above the 25,454-25,876 key resistance range.
“The ability to finish this week entirely above that range would do much to seal the deal and turn the range into important first support,” he added.
In turn, the research noted, a breakout would increase the potential for a challenge of the 27,250 area, plus or minus about 2%.
With that nearby potential in mind, Rosenberg Research said it is important to note the improving weekly Coppock Curve is crossing above its neutral zero line.
“The indicator is on pace to maintain this bullish bias into late June/early July.
This suggests a rally decisively into positive territory for the indicator and a probable follow-through of a breakout to higher highs for the TSX,” it added.
Rosenberg Research noted the Coppock indicator has had a bullish bias for a majority of the TSX sectors since late April.
This majority bullish condition has the potential to continue into July.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Volatility gripped stocks in the last stretch of the month, with the market bouncing from lows as Donald Trump said he expected to speak to Xi Jinping after accusing China of a trade-deal breach.
The S&P 500 almost wiped out a drop that earlier reached 1.2%, notching its best May since 1990.
Action was muted in bonds, though Treasuries headed toward their first monthly drop this year.
The dollar barely budged, while posting a fifth straight month of declines – the longest slide since 2020.
“We expect the markets to remain headline-driven, especially headlines related to tariffs,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
“As we start to see more clarity on trade, we expect more traditional drivers of markets, like earnings and fundamentals, to lead the way and drive sentiment.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is evaluating building an advanced production facility in the United Arab Emirates, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Gap Inc. tumbled after the apparel retailer predicted a tariff impact of as much as $300 million, offsetting better-than- expected results at its biggest brands.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. climbed after the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has expanded the data- analysis software company’s work across the federal government in recent months.
* Marvell Technology Inc. fell as analysts said the company failed to meet expectations on artificial intelligence.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. posted better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter, a sign that the nation’s largest club chain is flexing its scale and devoted following to navigate tariffs and economic turbulence.
* Ulta Beauty Inc. surged after first-quarter results topped estimates, signaling that shoppers are buying up beauty products despite growing economic concerns.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1354
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3471
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 143.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $104,577
* Ether fell 2.6% to $2,573.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,294.76 an ounce

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Our earth is degenerate in these latter days: bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents;
every man wants to write a book, and the end of the world is evidently approaching. -Assyrian tablet, c.2,800 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com