May 26th, 2025, Newslwtter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Monday.
May 26, 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first published. The average price of the 11 initial stocks was 40.94.  Go to article – Secrets of the Dow Jones Industrials
May 26, 1908: Engineers make the first major oil discovery in Iran, transforming the region’s economy and politics.

May 26, 1805: Napoleon crowned King of Italy.
May 26, 1805: Lewis and Clark see the Rocky Mountains.

Jahn Wayne, actor, b. 1907.
Sally Ride, astronaut, b. 1951.

Tomb built for Alexander the Great’s best friend is aligned with winter solstice, study suggests.

‘Trash’ found deep inside a Mexican cave turns out to be 500-year-old artifacts from a little-known culture.

Powerful Mother’s Day geomagnetic storm created radio-disrupting bubbles in Earth’s upper atmosphere.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

California gardeners plant native species in parks to prevent wildfire spread
‘It’s an experiment in design through maintenance,’ said Jenny Jones (pictured), director of Test Plot. ‘We bring our skills as designers to the park, but do it in a more immediate, low-budget, low-tech way that is very community friendly’
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian

Terremoto’s Burn Scar Test Plot, also in Elysian Park, was covered in black mustard and eucalyptus, two non-native and flammable species that burned during 2023 fires
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian

‘In Los Angeles, we see a lot of people fleeing the film and TV industry, which is struggling right now, and finding purpose in care and stewardship,’ Jones said. ‘It gives you a place to put your energy.’
Pictured: a lacy phaecelia plant in front of elegant clarkias at the Elysian Test Plot
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian
Market Closes for May 26^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Nothing is safe; nothing is secure in any field of life. -Gerald Loeb, The Battle for Investment Survival.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.7%, or 193.18 to 26,073.13 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on May 15.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.8%.
ATS Corp. had the largest increase, rising 20.3%.
Today, 188 of 217 shares rose, while 25 fell; all sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 21.5% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.23% compared with 10.33% in the previous session and the average of 25.85% over the past

Index Points
Information Technology | 47.2459| 1.9| 10/0
Financials | 41.7235| 0.5| 20/5
Industrials | 32.8242| 1.0| 25/3
Energy | 29.1315| 0.7| 38/3
Materials | 17.6671| 0.5| 44/4
Consumer Discretionary | 8.8446| 1.0| 9/1
Consumer Staples | 6.2812| 0.6| 8/2
Real Estate | 4.8877| 1.1| 18/0
Utilities | 4.1043| 0.4| 12/3
Communication Services | 0.2856| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | 0.1793| 0.3| 1/2
Shopify | 32.6600| 2.8| -59.5| -6.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.3500| 1.4| -37.6| 7.2
Cameco | 7.6340| 3.1| -45.8| 12.4
Power of Canada | -1.1010| -0.6| -77.8| 12.8
Nutrien | -1.4780| -0.5| -71.8| 26.6
Ivanhoe Mines | -10.4600| -16.2| 219.7| -36.9
Now down just one session in the last 14, the Toronto Stock Exchange climbed to a fresh record close on Monday as a better-than-expected result last week from TD Bank (TD.TO, TD) is seen pointing to potential earnings upside for Canada’s other big banks yet to report, starting with Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO, BNS) tomorrow morning.
Despite deflated commodity prices, the resources heavy market finished up 193.18 points at 26,073.13, beating a prior recent record close by less than 20 points.
This comes after the TSX snapped a six-week winning streak last Friday.
But going in to today, the index was up near 4.2% month to date, and more than 4.6% year to date.
Among sectors, most were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index (+2.5%), Information Technology (+1.8%) and Industrials (+1%). Reflecting lower gold prices, Base Metals was slightly lower.
Of individual stocks, ATS Corporation (TSX and NYSE: ATS) jumped 20% after announcing that it has reached a settlement agreement with its Electric Vehicle customer with respect to the previously disclosed outstanding payments owed.
With markets in both the United States and the United Kingdom shuttered for holidays, Canadian stock pickers were able to focus on domestic matters likely to in focus over the week ahead, including the expected release Tuesday of second quarter earnings from Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO, BNS).
For Q2, FactSet is forecasting earnings per share of $1.55 versus $1.58 a year earlier and FactSet is forecasting revenues of $9,087.8 million.
In an earnings preview note published earlier this month National Bank forecast $1.59 versus a consensus of $1.55.
It also forecast a dividend increase.
Among key themes, National Bank expected the corporate segment to lead the way; said the provision build could diverge from peers; and added capital markets could provide a “relatively lower uplift.”
On Scotia’s corporate segment, National Bank said BNS’ balance sheet is positioned for lower rates, namely via lower funding costs.
It noted that since Q1 2024, the loss reported in this segment fell from a peak of $230 million during Q1 2024 to $177 million during Q1 2025.
Including Q1 2025’s performance, National Bank estimates a total reduction in corporate segment losses of near $230 million during fiscal 2025 (excl. KEY earnings pick-up), which will explain roughly 45-50% of total bank profit growth for the year.
On provisions, while National Bank expects most banks to build performing provisions above their recent run rates, it said BNS could diverge somewhat from this trend.
According to National Bank, the bank’s International Banking segment, which represents around 22% of total bank loans, may prove “a bit more resilient” in terms of credit outlook than many expect.
It bases this view on how (outside Mexico) the U.S. has not targeted most LatAm countries with elevated tariffs.
Separately, National Bank said, BNS may simply choose to run with a “leaner” level of performing provisions than its peers.
It noted that during COVID, from Q1 2020 to Q4 2020, BNS’ performing ACL ratio increased by around 60%, lower than the 85% increase for its average peer.
Moreover, when it came time to start releasing provisions, BNS did so more rapidly than its peers did, National Bank added.
On capital markets, National Bank said everyone is expecting the banks to report strong trading revenue performance this quarter, a silver lining to an otherwise unexciting growth environment.
National would not be surprised if BNS reports relatively weaker Capital Markets performance this quarter.
For starters, National noted, its trading revenues as a percentage of total revenues of 7% are lower than the 8.5% peer average.
“Moreover, we don’t believe that BNS will benefit as much from elevated equity derivatives trading activity as some of its peers may have,” it said.
Of commodities, Bloomberg noted oil fluctuated as the market weighed easing trade tensions against the outlook for rising OPEC+ supply.
Gold traded lower mid-afternoon Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he will delay a plan to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union to July from June, easing safe-haven buying. Gold for August delivery was last down $25.20 to US$3,369.30 per ounce.
US
All US markets are closed today for the Memoria Day Holiday.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. -Leo Tolstoy, 1828-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com