Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.
I’ve been in NY at the Sohn Investment Conference this past week, and once again, as has always been the case in the past, it was an invaluable immersion into the leading investment theses gaining traction in the present environment. I’m looking forward to further researching these ideas in the next several days to better inform my recommendations to you so we can keep growing our investments on the road to a financially secure future.
I managed to get to the theatre on Wednesday night and saw one of the best plays/musicals I’ve ever seen, CHESS. It is based on the 1972 match between Bobby Fischer and Boris Spassky but is really a panorama of Cold War American Soviet rivalry. The current Broadway revival has a powerhouse trio in the leading roles – Aaaron Tveit as the American, Lea Michele in the female leading role, and Nicholas Christopher as the Soviet. Highly recommended.
May 15, 2026: Jerome Powell’s last day as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
May 15, 2001: A runaway freight train rolled about 70 miles through Ohio with no one aboard before a railroad employee jumped onto the locomotive and brought it to a stop. Go to article.
May 15, 1940: Nylon stockings go on sale nationally in the US, signaling the arrival of synthetic materials in everyday consumer life.
Henry James, writer, b. 1843.
If you obey all the rules, you miss all the fun. – Katharine Houghton Hepburn.
Video: Canadian fox caught with mouth full of hot dogs
In a cheeky announcement, Canadian police said they received a report of "theft of bbq goods." See video of the four-legged suspect.
Eurovision finalists to take the stage amid boycotts
Despite Eurovision’s insistence that it is apolitical, politics have always been a part of the song competition. But this year, controversy over Israel’s presence may overshadow the event.
Honda just lost money for the first time in 70 years
Shifts in the electric vehicle market have rattled automakers across the industry, including Honda, which posted its first annual loss since 1955.
The geological mystery behind Devil’s Tower National Monument
Alien "encounters" have helped turn this strange-looking monument below into an unlikely tourist attraction.
| ‘I heard gasps’ and ‘oh my God’: Artemis II astronauts reveal inside story of their mind-bending solar eclipse |
In their first visit to Canada since returning to Earth, the Artemis II astronauts opened up about the moments that blew their minds — and brought them to tears. Read more.
| High-status Roman woman was buried in a lead coffin with jet hairpins and exotic resins, archaeologists find |
A burial of an elite Roman-era woman who appears to have been buried with exotic resins has been discovered in Colchester. Read more.
| ‘Extreme’ crystal that formed in 1945 nuclear bomb test is unlike anything scientists have seen |
Samples of "trinitite" created during the world’s first nuclear bomb test in 1945 contain unique crystals never seen before. Read more.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Formia, Italy
Cyclists competing in the 109th Giro d’Italia. Kicking off in Formia, stage seven is one of the toughest – the 244km route ends with a 13.6km climb to the Blockhaus summit in the Apennines
Photograph: Dario Belingheri /Getty Images
Florence, Italy
Visitors at Dante’s Inferno Immersive Experience, at the Cattedrale dell’Immagine, in the former home town of the medieval poet Dante Alighieri
Photograph: Carlo Bressan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Kayseri, Turkey
Flamingos have been returning to Palas Tuzla in Sarıoğlan district after heavy winter rains expanded the lake to its largest size in 41 years
Photograph: Sercan Küçükşahin/ Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 15th, 2026
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
49526.17 | -537.29 |
| -1.07% | ||
| S&P 500 | 7408.50 | -92.74 |
| -1.24% | ||
| NASDAQ | 26225.14 | -410.08 |
| -1.54% | ||
| TSX | 33833.35 | -434.92 |
| -1.27% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 61409.29 | -1244.76 |
| -1.99% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25962.73 | -426.31 |
| -1.62% | ||
| SEN SEX | 75237.99 | -160.73 |
| -0.21% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 10195.37 | -177.56 |
| -1.71% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.691 | 3.568 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
4.019 | 3.921 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.5934 | 4.4816 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
5.1157 | 5.0264 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7272 | 0.7290 |
| US $ |
1.3750 | 1.3716 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6255 | 1.5985 |
| US $ |
0.8602 | 1.1625 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4683.05 | 4675.70 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 105.42 | 101.17 |
Market Commentary:
| On this day in 1911, the Supreme Court upheld the U.S. government’s decision to break up John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil on the grounds that it was such a powerful monopoly that it violated the “rule of reason.” |
🍒Canada🍓
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.3% at 33,833.35 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.6% on April 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 136 of 220 shares fell, while 82 rose.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.2%.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 13.2%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 14 times. The next day, it advanced 12 times for an average 0.9% and declined twice for an average 1.6%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.7%
* The index advanced 31% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1% below its 52-week high on March 2, 2026 and 31.8% above its low on May 15, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 on a trailing basis and 16.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.41t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.43% compared with 11.72% in the previous session and the average of 15.07% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | -395.5137| -6.1| 2/58
Financials | -51.0740| -0.4| 8/16
Consumer Discretionary| -19.7395| -1.9| 1/8
Utilities | -11.9682| -1.0| 4/10
Consumer Staples | -6.0843| -0.6| 5/5
Industrials | -3.5377| -0.1| 14/15
Communication Services| -3.1708| -0.5| 1/4
Health Care | -2.5376| -2.7| 1/3
Real Estate | -1.8474| -0.4| 6/12
Information Technology| 27.8471| 1.3| 8/1
Energy | 32.7169| 0.5| 32/4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -57.6800| -6.2| 49.6| 6.5
Brookfield Corp | -40.2900| -4.0| 30.4| -0.5
Barrick Mining | -40.2400| -5.8| 78.2| -6.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.3700| 1.2| -34.2| 42.1
Suncor | 19.1700| 2.5| 69.4| 54.3
Shopify | 36.4900| 3.2| -9.7| -37.6
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed sharply lower Friday as rising global bond yields sapped investor appetite for equities, with elevated oil prices reigniting concerns around the outlook for higher inflation and with that, overshadowing news of an energy agreement that could see pipeline construction start in oil-rich Alberta within about two years.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 434.92 points, or 1.25%, to 33,833.25, with most sectors lower, led by Base Metals, down 5.5% as gold was lower, and Health Care, down 3.6%.
Higher oil price have boosted the Energy sector, which gained 2% on a day when the big local news centered around the Canadian federal government’s plans to greenlight Alberta oil pipeline construction in return for oil-sands producers moving ahead with a massive carbon-capture.
With a green light from the federal government, Alberta hopes to begin construction on a new oil pipeline as early as fall 2027, with oil flowing by 2033-34,CTV National News reported, while noting there remains no clear private sector investor to pay for it.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith met in Calgary Friday to sign an updated deal.
It outlines that the federal government will work towards designating the pipeline a project of national interest by Oct.
1, with a date of Sept. 1, 2027, for potential construction approval.
The deal also raises the effective carbon price for Alberta to $130-a-tonne by 2040, instead of 2030 as previously laid out in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the pair in November.
That deal originally laid out conditions for the new pipeline to the West Coast.
Alberta estimates the new pricing will save the industry about $250 billion by 2050.
Friday’s see headline carbon-emission costs move from a current $95 per tonne to $115 in 2030, $130 by 2035 and $140 by 2040, Alberta’s headline carbon price is currently set at $95-a-tonne.
But today the impact of the higher oil price outside of Canada dictated how the trading day went.
As the conflict in the Middle East is about to enter its twelfth week, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping following the failure of a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran, noted National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor.
"If the crisis is not resolved, what looms is a multi-faceted supply shock that would put considerable pressure on supply chains, drive inflation upwards beyond the sectors most exposed to energy prices, and likely force several central banks to tighten
monetary policy," it said.
"Of course," National Bank added, "such an outcome is not inevitable, as a negotiated agreement between the two warring parties remains a distinct possibility.
Indeed, this is currently factored into our baseline scenario.
It is important to note, however, that while a reopening of the strait would lead to better economic outcomes in many regions, it would not resolve all the issues.
This is because it would likely take several weeks, or even several months, before maritime traffic could return to its pre-crisis level."
National Bank said even if the political impasse were to be resolved relatively quickly, as it still anticipates, the world would not return to its previous growth trajectory.
The resilience of the U.S. would likely be more than offset by the weakness of emerging markets in Asia and Europe, and this would result in growth of 3.0% this year and 3.3% next year, it added.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist Douglas Porter in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note said Canada, "has certainly not escaped the global bond sell-off", noting 30-year yields were above 4%.
They touched that level on one day in late 2023 but haven’t otherwise been there since 2010, he noted.
Porter added the "important" five-year yield has jumped to 3.35%, its highest level in almost two years and is now up more than 65 bps since the start of the war.
"That will put upward pressure on mortgage rates and further dampen a soggy housing market, thus tightening conditions notably without the Bank of Canada even lifting a finger."
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 4.2% on fading hopes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal that will re-open the Strait of the Hormuz as this week’s U.S.-China summit meeting ended with mixed messages on ending the war on Iran.
WTI oil for June delivery closed up US$4.25 to settle at US$105.42 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$3.56 to US$109.28.
But gold traded lower by midafternoon Friday as the dollar and yields climbed on concerns around inflation and concerns the rise in oil prices will force central banks to hike interest rates. Gold for June delivery was down $140.90 to US$4,544.40 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in global bonds halted a rally in stocks, with concern intensifying that central banks will be forced to tighten policy to keep inflation in check amid persistently elevated oil prices.
The biggest equity drop since March saw the S&P 500 falling 1.2%.
A gauge of chipmakers — which had led a surge from war- driven lows — sank 4%.
US 10-year yields topped 4.5% while those on Japan’s 30-year debt hit 4% for the first time.
The dollar extended this week’s gain.
US crude settled above $105.
With no end in sight to the Iran conflict, speculation has grown that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will deepen the energy disruptions that risk fueling inflation.
Back- to-back data this week showed mounting price pressures, prompting traders to boost bets the Federal Reserve will raise rates.
President Donald Trump said he didn’t push his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to pressure Tehran to revive Hormuz, offering no sign of a breakthrough in the standoff over the waterway.
China believes the strait should be reopened as soon as possible, Xinhua reported, citing Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
While a geopolitical advancement would help in the short term, inflation will take longer to come down, according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management.
Markets are adjusting to that reality, he noted.
“Risk sentiment is being dented by a global rise in bond yields, driven by a combination of inflation concerns, expectations for central-bank hikes, and worries around government debt as countries look to cushion the impact of higher energy prices,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones.
A bond market spooked by fears of accelerating inflation will be an early test for incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, according to Subadra Rajappa at Societe Generale Americas, who said it’s important he keeps expectations in check.
“While central banks cannot directly resolve a global energy shock by hiking rates, the prospect of fiscal stimulus appears to be complicating the inflation outlook,” Kourkafas noted.
That said, he bets the Fed will avoid overreacting to what may prove to be a temporary situation.
Nevertheless, traders should continue paying attention to signals from the bond market.
Bullish calls on stocks will be challenged if Treasury 10-year yields hit 5%, a level that usually depresses price-to-earnings ratios,” Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets told Bloomberg Television.
Friday’s pullback in equities came after a surge fueled by solid corporate profits, signs of economic resilience and a revival of the artificial-intelligence trade.
The “narrowness” of the rally had worried several market observers.
Still, the S&P 500 posted a seventh straight weekly gain – the longest advance since December 2023.
“There are signs of extended positioning and extreme optimism, which could lead to a natural and healthy period of consolidation,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Ultimately, however, if the macro and earnings environment remain supportive, the path of least resistance is higher.”
Corporate Highlights:
* SpaceX is seeking to file publicly for its long-awaited IPO as soon as Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Bill Ackman said Pershing Square has built a new stake in Microsoft Corp., taking advantage of a decline in the company’s share price to invest in a business that he said is stronger and more resilient than investors think.
* President Donald Trump said he discussed guardrails on artificial intelligence with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, while adding that Nvidia Corp.’s H200 chips also came up during a two- day summit in Beijing.
* Boeing Co. appears to have secured its long-awaited order from China during Trump’s visit to the country, but whatever accord was reached remained nebulous on numbers, aircraft type and a sense of timing.
* Alphabet Inc. sold ¥576.5 billion ($3.6 billion) of bonds in the biggest ever yen deal by a non-Japanese company as competition to fund data centers and AI infrastructure intensifies.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1620
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3317
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 158.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $79,153.63
* Ether fell 3.3% to $2,222.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 4.60%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 3.17%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 18 basis points to 5.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.6% to $105.78 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2.4% to $4,541.28 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Kind regards,
Carolann
As you start to walk on the way, the way appears. –Rumi, Persian Poet, 1207-1273.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828