May 13th, 2025,Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 13:1607 English colonists led by John Smith establish Jamestown at a second landing near the James River in Virginia – first permanent English settlement in North America
May 13: 1846 The United States declared that a state of war existed against Mexico. Go to article
May 13: 1913 First four-engined aircraft is flown by Igor Sikorsky in Russia
May 13: 1927 “Black Friday” on Berlin Stock Exchange

Yosemite’s ultra-deep canyon may have been carved in part by a ghost volcano and river, provocative research suggests
A river that drained the slopes of a now-vanished volcano may have carved Yosemite Valley’s depths during the last 10 million years.

Could a planet really develop a brain?
“My contention is that Earth may, if we are lucky and diligent and clever enough, grow an emergent superconsciousness.”

NASA satellites show Antarctica has gained ice despite rising global temperatures. How is that possible?

‘This should not be published’: Scientists cast doubt on study claiming trees ‘talk’ before solar eclipses
Claims that spruce trees synchronize their responses to a solar eclipse were widely reported recently — but many researchers are sceptical of the results.

May’s Full “Flower Moon” Was Visible Last Night — and It Was a Micromoon 🌕 The moon will also appear bright and full on Tuesday (May 13). Here’s what that means, and how to watch.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bangkok, Thailand
People take pictures of a sculpture by the US artist Kaws in front of the Grand Palace
Photograph: Sakchai Lalit/AP

Vesak Day 2025: celebrations of Buddha
Visitors watch as hot air balloons are launched at Ngawen Temple complex in Muntilan, Central Java, Indonesia
Photograph: Devi Rahman/AFP/Getty Images

Thousands of lanterns are released in front of Borobudur Temple, the world’s largest Buddhist monument and a Unesco World Heritage Site, in Magelang
Photograph: ZUMA Press/Alamy Live News
Market Closes for May 13^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
“Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.” Warren Buffett
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a sixth-straight session on Tuesday as new Prime Minister Mark Carney named his cabinet and emphasized his minority government will work quickly to put Canada’s economy back on track after the disruptions caused by a recent federal election and months of trade tensions with the United States.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 84.68 points to 25,616.86.
Among sectors today, the biggest gainers were Base Metals and Energy, up 0.73% and 1.84% respectively.
Telecoms, down 2.09%, was the biggest decliner, followed by Health Care, down 1.24%.
According to data provided late Monday afternoon by Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet the TSX was up 578.66 points or 2.32% over the prior five trading days and that had left it 1.07% from its record close of 25,808.25 hit Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025.
Month to date the TSX was up 2.78% and year to date was up 804.24 points or 3.25%.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3%, with five of 11 sectors higher, led by energy stocks.
As of market close, 137 of 217 stocks rose, while 79 fell.
Finning International Inc. led the advances, rising 14%, while Orla Mining Ltd. decreased 6%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.3% to 25,617
* Five of 11 sectors rose
** Energy gained, up 1%
** Communication services declined, down 2.3%
* Crude oil rose 2.9% to $64/bbl
* Natgas fell 0.9% to $3.61/mmbtu
* Gold rose 0.8% to $3,254/oz
* Silver rose 1.5% to $33/oz
Advancers:
* Finning International Inc. (FTT CN) +14%: Caterpillar Dealer Finning Rises on Record Backlog, Sales Beat
* Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA CN) +12%: Aya Gold & Silver Gains as FX, Cost Cuts Bring Q1 Beat (1)
* Celestica Inc. (CLS CN) +9.1%
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) +8.9%
* Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU CN) +6.6%: Paramount Resources 1Q Petroleum and Natural Gas Sales C$266.6M
Decliners:
* Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA CN) -6%
* Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET CN) -4.5%: Pet Valu Falls by Most Since August After 5.2M Share Offer (1)
* Constellation Software Inc/Canada (CSU CN) -3.8%: Constellation Software 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
* Energy Fuels Inc/Canada (EFR CN) -3.4%
* Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI CN) -3.3%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest technology companies wiped out the stock market’s losses for the year on bets tensions around Donald Trump’s trade war are cooling, with inflation data showing limited impacts thus far.
Equities climbed to the highest since February, the month that marked the S&P 500’s all-time high.
The gauge was up almost 1%, with chipmakers leading the charge as Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will supply semiconductors to Saudi Arabian firm Humain for a massive data-center project.
Treasuries erased gains on speculation the Federal Reserve will stay put as it evaluates potential implications of tariffs.
The dollar fell.
The easing of trade tensions and a surprisingly positive earnings season have spurred optimism after a period of doubt about Corporate America’s ability to meet high profit expectations.
The stock market is “gonna go a lot higher,” Trump noted, citing an “explosion of investment and jobs” as he said Saudi Arabia would commit to investing $1 trillion in the US.
The Trump administration plans to overhaul regulations on the export of semiconductors used in artificial intelligence, tossing out a Biden-era approach that had drawn strenuous objections from America’s allies.
The US is also weighing a deal that would allow the United Arab Emirates to import more than a million advanced Nvidia chips, people familiar with the matter said.
After mostly missing out on last month’s rebound, investors are likely to be forced to chase the stock rally sparked by this weekend’s US-China trade truce, Bank of America Corp. strategists said.
A survey conducted before the trade talks in Geneva showed fund managers were a net 38% underweight on US stocks, the most in two years.
The poll is “bearish enough to suggest pain trade modestly higher” given the US-China deal would prevent a recession or a shock in credit markets, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett wrote.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%.
A closely watched gauge of chipmakers rallied 3.15%.
The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven index of megacaps added 2.2%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.48%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%.
US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.
The temporary agreement reached over the weekend to de- escalate the trade war with China has largely scaled back projections of how much damage tariffs will inflict on the economy.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted its forecast for US growth, dropping its earlier call that the world’s largest economy would sink into a recession in 2025.
While derivative contracts continue to price in two quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, several major Wall Street banks this week forecast a rate cut in December, later “Like the Fed, investors are likely to look through today’s report as the prospect of trade deals and details on the budget reconciliation process are more material drivers for equities in the coming weeks,” said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
“However, the absence of a negative with today’s print does lend to incremental upside for risk assets as hedges are unwound.”
Trump cited the softer-than-expected inflation report to again pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates.
“No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!!” Trump wrote in a social media post.
“THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done.
What is wrong with Too Late Powell?”
The reprieve in US-China trade tensions that sent stocks soaring has chart watchers anticipating fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500.
According to John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, there are now no more major resistance levels left until 6,144, the record hit on February 19.
“The S&P 500 trading above the 200-day moving average is another indication that the trend is turning positive,” Kolovos said.
“This increases the odds that pullbacks will be met with increased demand or buying interest.
It changes your strategy and sends the signal that we’re done with the bear market.”
Meantime, the negative earnings-growth momentum that has plagued US equities for months is finally taking a turn for the better.
A Citigroup Inc. gauge of earnings revisions, based on the number of upgrades and downgrades, has turned positive for the first time in six months.
According to a Bloomberg Intelligence earnings tracker, 77% of S&P 500 members that reported surprised positively in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of last year.
Meanwhile, earnings growth in the quarter is running at 13.1%, compared with just 6.6% expected before the start of the season.
Last month, sell-side strategists were downgrading their forecasts for the S&P 500 at a furious pace as Trump unleashed tariffs on the world and sparked a flurry of equities selling.
But since then, his administration has reversed direction and backpedaled on his harshest trade plans — most recently agreeing with China to temporarily reduce their levies on each other — forcing those same strategists to pull U-turns on their calls.
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni and David Kostin of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among the strategists changing course this week, calling for the S&P 500 to rally past 6,000 by December’s close.
They also were among the first to slash their 2025 targets for the benchmark during April’s stock-market rout triggered by Trump’s tariff announcement.
At the time, prognosticators were slashing expectations at the fastest rate since the Covid crash of March 2020.
Meanwhile, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer Mark Haefele downgraded US stocks to neutral from attractive, saying the risk-reward was more balanced after the strong rebound from April lows.
Uncertainty is still high, and investor focus will eventually shift to the possibility of a lasting agreement over trade, Haefele wrote in a note.
“This is not a bearish view, nor a call to sell equities, and we recommend that investors maintain a full strategic allocation to US stocks.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. said it will cut 6,000 workers across the company in an effort to reduce management layers.
* Google unveiled the biggest update to its Android mobile operating system in years, weeks before its biggest competitor in the space, Apple Inc., is expected to give a preview of its overhauled iPhone software.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. unexpectedly replaced its chief executive and suspended earnings guidance, raising increasing questions over how the company once regarded as a safe bet by investors has got its cost predictions so wrong.
* The Commerce Department issued guidance stating that the use of Huawei Technologies Co.’s Ascend artificial intelligence chips “anywhere in the world” violates the government’s export controls, escalating US efforts to curb technological advances in China.
* Southwest Airlines Co. has filed with the US Transportation Department for authority to fly to any country with which the US has an Open Skies aviation agreement, signaling the carrier intends to expand its small international route network.
* Walt Disney Co. said its new sports streaming platform will be called ESPN, the same as its popular cable-TV channel, and cost $30 a month.
* China has removed a month-long ban on airlines taking delivery of Boeing Co. planes, according to people familiar with the matter, following a breakthrough in trade talks with the US that temporarily slashed tariffs on each side.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has held talks with regulators about an Irish launch of its retail bank Marcus, a move that could shake up the country’s heavily concentrated market and give the Wall Street giant access to tens of billions of euros in deposits.
* EchoStar Corp., the wireless and pay-TV operator controlled by billionaire Charlie Ergen, fell for a second straight day after the company acknowledged that US regulators are reviewing its compliance with obligations to build a nationwide 5G network.
* US solar companies jumped after House Republicans released a draft of a tax bill that went easier on many players in the sector than analysts had expected. The lawmakers also proposed eliminating a production tax credit for hydrogen, sending Plug Power Inc. stock lower.
* Hertz Global Holdings Inc. plunged after the car-rental company posted a larger-than-expected loss in the first quarter, pressured by a slowdown in customer bookings.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. agreed to acquire WonderFi Technologies Inc., the operator of two Canadian cryptocurrency platforms, for about C$250 million ($179 million) in cash.
* L’Oreal SA sold $1 billion of investment-grade notes on Tuesday — the cosmetics company’s first deal in the US corporate bond market.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 3.15%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.9% to $1.1190
* The British pound rose 1% to $1.3306
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.43 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $104,841.4
* Ether rose 8.3% to $2,692.47
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $63.65 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,249.86 an ounce

–With assistance from Phil Kuntz, Julien Ponthus, Margaryta Kirakosian, Sujata Rao and Winnie Hsu.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” We must never confuse elegance with snobbery.”– Yves Saint Laurent
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828